Risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation

A trade-off between return and risk plays a central role in financial economics. The intertemporal capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) proposed by Merton (1973) provides a neoclassical theory for expected returns on risky assets. The model assumes that risk-averse investors (seeking to maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption) demand compensation for bearing systematic market risk and the risk of unfavorable shifts in the investment opportunity set. Although the ICAPM postulates a positive relation between the conditional expected market return and its conditional variance, the empirical evidence on the sign of the risk-return trade-off is conflicting. In contrast, autocorrelation in stock returns is one of the most consistent and robust findings in empirical finance. While autocorrelation is often interpreted as a violation of market efficiency, it can also reflect factors such as market microstructure or time-varying risk premia. This doctoral thesis investigates a relation between the mixed risk-return trade-off results and autocorrelation in stock returns. The results suggest that, in the case of the US stock market, the relative contribution of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in explaining the aggregate return fluctuates with volatility. This effect is then shown to be even more pronounced in the case of emerging stock markets. During high-volatility periods, expected returns can be described using rational (intertemporal) investors acting to maximize their expected utility. During lowvolatility periods, market-wide persistence in returns increases, leading to a failure of traditional equilibrium-model descriptions for expected returns. Consistent with this finding, traditional models yield conflicting evidence concerning the sign of the risk-return trade-off. The changing relevance of the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation can be explained by heterogeneous agents or, more generally, by the inadequacy of the neoclassical view on asset pricing with unboundedly rational investors and perfect market efficiency. In the latter case, the empirical results imply that the neoclassical view is valid only under certain market conditions. This offers an economic explanation as to why it has been so difficult to detect a positive tradeoff between the conditional mean and variance of the aggregate stock return. The results highlight the importance, especially in the case of emerging stock markets, of noting both the risk-return trade-off and autocorrelation in applications that require estimates for expected returns.

The Rejection of Prioritarianism

Since the late 1990’s, a group of moral doctrines called prioritarianism has received a lot of interest from many moral philosophers. Many contemporary moral philosophers are attracted to prioritarianism to such an extent that they can be called prioritarians. In this book, however, I reject prioritarianism, including not only “pure” prioritarianism but also hybrid prioritarian views which mix one or more non-prioritarian elements with prioritarianism. This book largely revolves around certain problems and complications of prioritarianism and its particular forms. Those problems and complications are connected to risk, impartiality, the arbitrariness of prioritarian weightings and possible future individuals. On the one hand, I challenge prioritarianism through targeted objections to various specific forms of prioritarianism. All those targeted objections are connected to risk or possible future individuals. It seems to me that together they give good grounds for believing that prioritarianism is not the way to go. On the other hand, I challenge prioritarianism by pointing out and discussing certain general problems of prioritarianism. Those general problems are connected to impartiality and the arbitrariness of prioritarian weightings. They may give additional grounds for believing that all prioritarian views should be rejected. Prioritarianism can be seen as a type of weighted utilitarianism and thus as an extension of utilitarianism. Utilitarianism is morally ultimately concerned, and morally ultimately concerned only, with some kind of maximization of utility or expected utility. Prioritarianism, on the other hand, is morally ultimately concerned, and morally ultimately concerned only, with some kind of maximization of priority-weighted utility, expected priority-weighted utility or priority-weighted expected utility. Thus prioritarianism, unlike utilitarianism, is a distribution-sensitive moral view. Besides rejecting prioritarianism, I reject also various other distribution-sensitive moral views in this book. However, I do not reject distribution-sensitivity in morality, as I end up endorsing a type of distribution-sensitive hybrid utilitarianism which mixes non-utilitarian elements with utilitarianism.

Public-private partnership investments in dry ports – Russian logistics markets and risks

The investments have always been considered as an essential backbone and so-called ‘locomotive’ for the competitive economies. However, in various countries, the state has been put under tight budget constraints for the investments in capital intensive projects. In response to this situation, the cooperation between public and private sector has grown based on public-private mechanism. The promotion of favorable arrangement for collaboration between public and private sectors for the provision of policies, services, and infrastructure in Russia can help to address the problems of dry ports development that neither municipalities nor the private sector can solve alone. Especially, the stimulation of public-private collaboration is significant under the exposure to externalities that affect the magnitude of the risks during all phases of project realization. In these circumstances, the risk in the projects also is becoming increasingly a part of joint research and risk management practice, which is viewed as a key approach, aiming to take active actions on existing global and specific factors of uncertainties. Meanwhile, a relatively little progress has been made on the inclusion of the resilience aspects into the planning process of a dry ports construction that would instruct the capacity planner, on how to mitigate the occurrence of disruptions that may lead to million dollars of losses due to the deviation of the future cash flows from the expected financial flows on the project. The current experience shows that the existing methodological base is developed fragmentary within separate steps of supply chain risk management (SCRM) processes: risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring and control phases. The lack of the systematic approach hinders the solution of the problem of risk management processes of dry port implementation. Therefore, management of various risks during the investments phases of dry port projects still presents a considerable challenge from the practical and theoretical points of view. In this regard, the given research became a logical continuation of fundamental research, existing in the financial models and theories (e.g., capital asset pricing model and real option theory), as well as provided a complementation for the portfolio theory. The goal of the current study is in the design of methods and models for the facilitation of dry port implementation through the mechanism of public-private partnership on the national market that implies the necessity to mitigate, first and foremost, the shortage of the investments and consequences of risks. The problem of the research was formulated on the ground of the identified contradictions. They rose as a continuation of the trade-off between the opportunities that the investors can gain from the development of terminal business in Russia (i.e. dry port implementation) and risks. As a rule, the higher the investment risk, the greater should be their expected return. However, investors have a different tolerance for the risks. That is why it would be advisable to find an optimum investment. In the given study, the optimum relates to the search for the efficient portfolio, which can provide satisfaction to the investor, depending on its degree of risk aversion. There are many theories and methods in finance, concerning investment choices. Nevertheless, the appropriateness and effectiveness of particular methods should be considered with the allowance of the specifics of the investment projects. For example, the investments in dry ports imply not only the lump sum of financial inflows, but also the long-term payback periods. As a result, capital intensity and longevity of their construction determine the necessity from investors to ensure the return on investment (profitability), along with the rapid return on investment (liquidity), without precluding the fact that the stochastic nature of the project environment is hardly described by the formula-based approach. The current theoretical base for the economic appraisals of the dry port projects more often perceives net present value (NPV) as a technique superior to other decision-making criteria. For example, the portfolio theory, which considers different risk preference of an investor and structures of utility, defines net present value as a better criterion of project appraisal than discounted payback period (DPP). Meanwhile, in business practice, the DPP is more popular. Knowing that the NPV is based on the assumptions of certainty of project life, it cannot be an accurate appraisal approach alone to determine whether or not the project should be accepted for the approval in the environment that is not without of uncertainties. In order to reflect the period or the project’s useful life that is exposed to risks due to changes in political, operational, and financial factors, the second capital budgeting criterion – discounted payback period is profoundly important, particularly for the Russian environment. Those statements represent contradictions that exist in the theory and practice of the applied science. Therefore, it would be desirable to relax the assumptions of portfolio theory and regard DPP as not fewer relevant appraisal approach for the assessment of the investment and risk measure. At the same time, the rationality of the use of both project performance criteria depends on the methods and models, with the help of which these appraisal approaches are calculated in feasibility studies. The deterministic methods cannot ensure the required precision of the results, while the stochastic models guarantee the sufficient level of the accuracy and reliability of the obtained results, providing that the risks are properly identified, evaluated, and mitigated. Otherwise, the project performance indicators may not be confirmed during the phase of project realization. For instance, the economic and political instability can result in the undoing of hard-earned gains, leading to the need for the attraction of the additional finances for the project. The sources of the alternative investments, as well as supportive mitigation strategies, can be studied during the initial phases of project development. During this period, the effectiveness of the investments undertakings can also be improved by the inclusion of the various investors, e.g. Russian Railways’ enterprises and other private companies in the dry port projects. However, the evaluation of the effectiveness of the participation of different investors in the project lack the methods and models that would permit doing the particular feasibility study, foreseeing the quantitative characteristics of risks and their mitigation strategies, which can meet the tolerance of the investors to the risks. For this reason, the research proposes a combination of Monte Carlo method, discounted cash flow technique, the theory of real options, and portfolio theory via a system dynamics simulation approach. The use of this methodology allows for comprehensive risk management process of dry port development to cover all aspects of risk identification, risk evaluation, risk mitigation, risk monitoring, and control phases. A designed system dynamics model can be recommended for the decision-makers on the dry port projects that are financed via a public-private partnership. It permits investors to make a decision appraisal based on random variables of net present value and discounted payback period, depending on different risks factors, e.g. revenue risks, land acquisition risks, traffic volume risks, construction hazards, and political risks. In this case, the statistical mean is used for the explication of the expected value of the DPP and NPV; the standard deviation is proposed as a characteristic of risks, while the elasticity coefficient is applied for rating of risks. Additionally, the risk of failure of project investments and guaranteed recoupment of capital investment can be considered with the help of the model. On the whole, the application of these modern methods of simulation creates preconditions for the controlling of the process of dry port development, i.e. making managerial changes and identifying the most stable parameters that contribute to the optimal alternative scenarios of the project realization in the uncertain environment. System dynamics model allows analyzing the interactions in the most complex mechanism of risk management process of the dry ports development and making proposals for the improvement of the effectiveness of the investments via an estimation of different risk management strategies. For the comparison and ranking of these alternatives in their order of preference to the investor, the proposed indicators of the efficiency of the investments, concerning the NPV, DPP, and coefficient of variation, can be used. Thus, rational investors, who averse to taking increased risks unless they are compensated by the commensurate increase in the expected utility of a risky prospect of dry port development, can be guided by the deduced marginal utility of investments. It is computed on the ground of the results from the system dynamics model. In conclusion, the outlined theoretical and practical implications for the management of risks, which are the key characteristics of public-private partnerships, can help analysts and planning managers in budget decision-making, substantially alleviating the effect from various risks and avoiding unnecessary cost overruns in dry port projects.

Investigation of the applicability of LVDC microgrids in utility distribution in Russia

The research towards efficient, reliable and environmental-friendly power supply solutions is producing growing interest to the “Smart Grid” approach for the development of the electricity networks and managing the increasing energy consumption. One of the novel approaches is an LVDC microgrid. The purpose of the research is to analyze the possibilities for the implementation of LVDC microgrids in public distribution networks in Russia. The research contains the analysis of the modern Russian electric power industry, electricity market, electricity distribution business, regulatory framework and standardization, related to the implementation of LVDC microgrid concept. For the purpose of the economic feasibility estimation, a theoretical case study for comparing low voltage AC and medium voltage AC with LVDC microgrid solutions for a small settlement in Russia is presented. The results of the market and regulatory framework analysis along with the economic comparison of AC and DC solutions show that implementation of the LVDC microgrid concept in Russia is possible and can be economically feasible. From the electric power industry and regulatory framework point of view, there are no serious obstacles for the LVDC microgrids in Russian distribution networks. However, the most suitable use cases at the moment are expected to be found in the electrification of remote settlements, which are isolated from the Unified Energy System of Russia.

Effect of data acquisition accuracy on timing of stand harvests and expected net present value

Abstract

Statistical variation of weld profiles and their expected influence on fatigue strength

The general objective of this study was to conduct astatistical analysis on the variation of the weld profiles and their influence on the fatigue strength of the joint. Weld quality with respect to its fatigue strength is of importance which is the main concept behind this thesis. The intention of this study was to establish the influence of weld geometric parameters on the weld quality and fatigue strength. The effect of local geometrical variations of non-load carrying cruciform fillet welded joint under tensile loading wasstudied in this thesis work. Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics was used to calculate fatigue strength of the cruciform fillet welded joints in as-welded condition and under cyclic tensile loading, for a range of weld geometries. With extreme value statistical analysis and LEFM, an attempt was made to relate the variation of the cruciform weld profiles such as weld angle and weld toe radius to respective FAT classes.

The role of culture in international students' image formation: the emergence of expected and perceived university image

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli selvittää, vaikuttaako kansainvälisen opiskelijan kulttuuritausta opiskelijan odotetun ja koetun yliopistoimagon muodostumiseen. Jotta kulttuurin vaikutuksia yliopistoimagoon voitiin tutkia, tutkimuksessa tunnistettiin yliopistoimagon muodostumiseen oleellisesti vaikuttavat tekijät. Kulttuurin roolia organisaation imagon muodostumisessa ei ole tutkittu aiemmissa tieteellisissä julkaisuissa. Näin ollen tämän tutkimuksen voidaan katsoa edistäneen nykyistä imagotutkimusta. Tutkimuksen kohdeyliopistona oli Lappeenrannan teknillinen yliopisto (LTY). Tutkimuksen empiirinen osa toteutettiin kvantitatiivisena Internet - pohjaisena kyselytutkimuksena tilastollisen analyysin menetelmin. Otos (N=179) koostui kaikista Lappeenrannan teknillisessä yliopistossa lukuvuonna 2005-2006 opiskelleista kansainvälisistä opiskelijoista. Kyselyyn vastasi 68,7 % opiskelijoista. Johtopäätöksenä voidaan todeta, että kulttuurilla ei ole merkittävää vaikutusta yliopistoimagon muodostumiseen. Tutkimuksessa saatiin selville, että yliopiston Internet-sivujen laatu vaikuttaa positiivisesti odotetun yliopistoimagon muodostumiseen, kun taas koettuun yliopistoimagoon vaikuttavat positiivisesti odotettu yliopistoimago, pedagoginen laatu sekä opetusympäristö. Markkinoinnin näkökulmasta tulokset voidaan vetää yhteen toteamalla, että yliopistojen ei tarvitsisi räätälöidä tutkimuksessa tunnistettuja imagoon vaikuttavia tekijöitä eri kulttuureistatulevia opiskelijoita varten.

Assessment of Coals from Russia and Countries of Former Soviet Union for Utility Fluidized Bed Boilers

With the occurrence of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal we found new sources of energy that have played a critical role in the progress of our modern society. Coal is very ample compared to the other two fossil fuels. Global coal reserves at the end of 2005 were estimated at 847,5 billion tones. Along with the major energy sources, coal is the most fast growing fuel on a global basis, it provides 26% of primary energy needs and remains essential to the economies of many developed and developing countries. Coal-fired power generation accounts for 41% of the world‘s total electricity production and in some countries, such as South Africa, Poland, China, Australia, Kazakhstan and India is on very high level. Still, coal utilization represents challenges related to high emissions of air pollutants such as sulphur and nitrogen dioxides, particulate matter, mercury and carbon dioxide. In relation to these a number of technologies have been developed and are in marketable use, with further potential developments towards ―Near Zero Emission‖ coal plants. In present work, coals mined in Russia and countries of Former Soviet Union were reviewed. Distribution of coal reserves on the territory of Russia and the potential for power generation from coal-fired plants across Russia was shown. Physical and chemical properties of coals produced were listed and examined, as main factor influencing on design of the combustion facility and incineration process performance. The ash-related problems in coal-fired boilers were described. The analysis of coal ash of Russia and countries of Former Soviet Union were prepared. Feasible combustion technologies also were reviewed.

Analysis of electricity distribution network operation business models and capitalization of control room functions with DMS

Electricity distribution network operation (NO) models are challenged as they are expected to continue to undergo changes during the coming decades in the fairly developed and regulated Nordic electricity market. Network asset managers are to adapt to competitive technoeconomical business models regarding the operation of increasingly intelligent distribution networks. Factors driving the changes for new business models within network operation include: increased investments in distributed automation (DA), regulative frameworks for annual profit limits and quality through outage cost, increasing end-customer demands, climatic changes and increasing use of data system tools, such as Distribution Management System (DMS). The doctoral thesis addresses the questions a) whether there exist conditions and qualifications for competitive markets within electricity distribution network operation and b) if so, identification of limitations and required business mechanisms. This doctoral thesis aims to provide an analytical business framework, primarily for electric utilities, for evaluation and development purposes of dedicated network operation models to meet future market dynamics within network operation. In the thesis, the generic build-up of a business model has been addressed through the use of the strategicbusiness hierarchy levels of mission, vision and strategy for definition of the strategic direction of the business followed by the planning, management and process execution levels of enterprisestrategy execution. Research questions within electricity distribution network operation are addressed at the specified hierarchy levels. The results of the research represent interdisciplinary findings in the areas of electrical engineering and production economics. The main scientific contributions include further development of the extended transaction cost economics (TCE) for government decisions within electricity networks and validation of the usability of the methodology for the electricity distribution industry. Moreover, DMS benefit evaluations in the thesis based on the outage cost calculations propose theoretical maximum benefits of DMS applications equalling roughly 25% of the annual outage costs and 10% of the respective operative costs in the case electric utility. Hence, the annual measurable theoretical benefits from the use of DMS applications are considerable. The theoretical results in the thesis are generally validated by surveys and questionnaires.

Tuulivoimateollisuuden tarkastelu patenttianalyysiä hyödyntäen

Työssä luodaan katsaus tuulivoiman käyttöön historiassa sekä tuulivoiman hyödyntämiseen sähköntuotantoon nykyaikaisessa yhteiskunnassa. Lisäksi esitellään modernin kolmilapaisen tuuliturbiinin tekniikkaa. Työssä tarkastellaan kolmen suuren tuulivoimaloita valmistavien yrityksien patentointiaktiivisutta aikavälillä 2000–2010 ja patenttien lukumäärässä, maantieteellisessä vaihtelussa, tyypissä ja luokissa esiintyviä trendejä. Näiden pohjalta luodaan kokonaiskuva tuulivoiman teollisuuden kehityksestä 2000-luvun alussa ja odotetuista tulevaisuuden näkymistä. Vuosituhannen vaihteen jälkeen patentointiaktiivisuus on kasvanut tuulivoimateknologiayrityksillä. Etenkin vuonna 2007 havaitaan piikki patenttien lukumäärässä. Patentointitoiminta on keskittynyt Eurooppaan, Pohjois-Amerikkaan sekä Kiinaan. Tuulivoimateknologian voidaan olettaa kehittyvän sekä koossa että kustannustehokkuudessa.

Molecular diagnostics of rare inherited SYNDROMES with a view on diagnostic test development

CHARGE syndrome, Sotos syndrome and 3p deletion syndrome are examples of rare inherited syndromes that have been recognized for decades but for which the molecular diagnostics only have been made possible by recent advances in genomic research. Despite these advances, development of diagnostic tests for rare syndromes has been hindered by diagnostic laboratories having limited funds for test development, and their prioritization of tests for which a (relatively) high demand can be expected. In this study, the molecular diagnostic tests for CHARGE syndrome and Sotos syndrome were developed, resulting in their successful translation into routine diagnostic testing in the laboratory of Medical Genetics (UTUlab). In the CHARGE syndrome group, mutation was identified in 40.5% of the patients and in the Sotos syndrome group, in 34%, reflecting the use of the tests in routine diagnostics in differential diagnostics. In CHARGE syndrome, the low prevalence of structural aberrations was also confirmed. In 3p deletion syndrome, it was shown that small terminal deletions are not causative for the syndrome, and that testing with arraybased analysis provides a reliable estimate of the deletion size but benign copy number variants complicate result interpretation. During the development of the tests, it was discovered that finding an optimal molecular diagnostic strategy for a given syndrome is always a compromise between the sensitivity, specificity and feasibility of applying a new method. In addition, the clinical utility of the test should be considered prior to test development: sometimes a test performing well in a laboratory has limited utility for the patient, whereas a test performing poorly in the laboratory may have a great impact on the patient and their family. At present, the development of next generation sequencing methods is changing the concept of molecular diagnostics of rare diseases from single tests towards whole-genome analysis.

Early detection of severe sepsis in the emergency room in adults - Clinical utility of prognostic markers

Vaikean sepsiksen varhainen tunnistaminen päivystyspoliklinikalla – merkkiaineiden käyttökelpoisuus aikuispotilaiden arvioinnissa Päivystyspotilaan vakavan yleisinfektion eli sepsiksen varhainen tunnistaminen ja taudin vaikeusasteen arviointi on päivystävälle lääkärille tärkeä haaste. Arvioimme prospektiivisessa kohorttitutkimuksessa eri merkkiaineiden hyödyllisyyttä sepsiksen varhaisessa tunnistamisessa ja vaikeusasteen arvioinnissa. Työssä I ja III oli 539 päivystyspotilasta, joilta kliinikko päätti ottaa veriviljelyn sepsistä epäillen. Tutkimuksessa II oli 525 potilasta ja tutkimuksessa IV 537 potilasta. Tutkimuksessa I plasman C-reaktiivisen proteiinin (CRP) pitoisuuksia verrattiin plasman prokalsitoniinin (PCT) ja interleukiinin (IL-6) pitoisuuksiin. Tutkimuksessa II verrattiin plasman baktersidisen/ permeabiliteettia lisäävän proteiinin (BPI), ryhmän IIA fosfolipaasi A2:n (PLA2GIIA) ja CRP:n pitoisuuksia sekä valkosolujen määriä toisiinsa. Tutkimuksessa III arvioitiin liukoisen urokinaasi-tyyppisen plasminogeenin aktivaattorireseptorin (suPAR) ja tutkimuksessa IV pentraksiini 3:n (PTX3) määrityksen käyttökelpoisuutta. Tutkimuksessa I todettiin päivystystilanteessa mitattujen korkeiden PCT - ja IL-6 - pitoisuuksien ennustavan vaikean sepsiksen kehittymistä paremmin kuin korkean CRP:n. Tutkimuksessa II plasman PLA2GIIA vaikutti hiukan paremmalta vaikean sepsiksen ennustajalta kuin CRP tai veren valkosolutaso, mutta BPI ei ollut hyödyllinen. Tutkimuksessa III korkea plasman suPAR- pitoisuus osoittautui itsenäiseksi kuolleisuuden riskitekijäksi ja se liittyi myös vaikean sepsiksen kehittymiseen. Tutkimuksessa IV korkea PTX3 - pitoisuus toimi samaan tapaan kuin suPAR. Kokonaisuutena PCT osoittautui parhaaksi merkkiaineeksi ennustamaan elinhäiriön kehittymistä ja suPAR kuolleisuutta. PTX3 ei tarjonnut merkittävää lisäetua PCT:iin ja suPAR:iin verrattuna. CRP osoitti suhteellisen hyvin bakteeri-infektion esiintymistä, mutta ennusteellista arvoa sillä ei ollut. suPAR on kiinnostava kuolleisuuden ja elinhäiriön kehittymisen merkkiaine.

Data Governance and Automated Marketing – A Case Study of Expected Benefits of Organizing Data Governance in an ICT Company

This research is looking to find out what benefits employees expect the organization of data governance gains for an organization and how it benefits implementing automated marketing capabilities. Quality and usability of the data are crucial for organizations to meet various business needs. Organizations have more data and technology available what can be utilized for example in automated marketing. Data governance addresses the organization of decision rights and accountabilities for the management of an organization’s data assets. With automated marketing it is meant sending a right message, to a right person, at a right time, automatically. The research is a single case study conducted in Finnish ICT-company. The case company was starting to organize data governance and implementing automated marketing capabilities at the time of the research. Empirical material is interviews of the employees of the case company. Content analysis is used to interpret the interviews in order to find the answers to the research questions. Theoretical framework of the research is derived from the morphology of data governance. Findings of the research indicate that the employees expect the organization of data governance among others to improve customer experience, to improve sales, to provide abilities to identify individual customer’s life-situation, ensure that the handling of the data is according to the regulations and improve operational efficiency. The organization of data governance is expected to solve problems in customer data quality that are currently hindering implementation of automated marketing capabilities.