20 resultados para Auto-Regressive and Moving-Average Model with exogenous inputs

em Doria (National Library of Finland DSpace Services) - National Library of Finland, Finland


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In this work a fuzzy linear system is used to solve Leontief input-output model with fuzzy entries. For solving this model, we assume that the consumption matrix from di erent sectors of the economy and demand are known. These assumptions heavily depend on the information obtained from the industries. Hence uncertainties are involved in this information. The aim of this work is to model these uncertainties and to address them by fuzzy entries such as fuzzy numbers and LR-type fuzzy numbers (triangular and trapezoidal). Fuzzy linear system has been developed using fuzzy data and it is solved using Gauss-Seidel algorithm. Numerical examples show the e ciency of this algorithm. The famous example from Prof. Leontief, where he solved the production levels for U.S. economy in 1958, is also further analyzed.

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Novel biomaterials are needed to fill the demand of tailored bone substitutes required by an ever‐expanding array of surgical procedures and techniques. Wood, a natural fiber composite, modified with heat treatment to alter its composition, may provide a novel approach to the further development of hierarchically structured biomaterials. The suitability of wood as a model biomaterial as well as the effects of heat treatment on the osteoconductivity of wood was studied by placing untreated and heat‐treated (at 220 C , 200 degrees and 140 degrees for 2 h) birch implants (size 4 x 7mm) into drill cavities in the distal femur of rabbits. The follow‐up period was 4, 8 and 20 weeks in all in vivo experiments. The flexural properties of wood as well as dimensional changes and hydroxyl apatite formation on the surface of wood (untreated, 140 degrees C and 200 degrees C heat‐treated wood) were tested using 3‐point bending and compression tests and immersion in simulated body fluid. The effect of premeasurement grinding and the effect of heat treatment on the surface roughness and contour of wood were tested with contact stylus and non‐contact profilometry. The effects of heat treatment of wood on its interactions with biological fluids was assessed using two different test media and real human blood in liquid penetration tests. The results of the in vivo experiments showed implanted wood to be well tolerated, with no implants rejected due to foreign body reactions. Heat treatment had significant effects on the biocompatibility of wood, allowing host bone to grow into tight contact with the implant, with occasional bone ingrowth into the channels of the wood implant. The results of the liquid immersion experiments showed hydroxyl apatite formation only in the most extensively heat‐treated wood specimens, which supported the results of the in vivo experiments. Parallel conclusions could be drawn based on the results of the liquid penetration test where human blood had the most favorable interaction with the most extensively heat‐treated wood of the compared materials (untreated, 140 degrees C and 200 degrees C heat‐treated wood). The increasing biocompatibility was inferred to result mainly from changes in the chemical composition of wood induced by the heat treatment, namely the altered arrangement and concentrations of functional chemical groups. However, the influence of microscopic changes in the cell walls, surface roughness and contour cannot be totally excluded. The heat treatment was hypothesized to produce a functional change in the liquid distribution within wood, which could have biological relevance. It was concluded that the highly evolved hierarchical anatomy of wood could yield information for the future development of bulk bone substitutes according to the ideology of bioinspiration. Furthermore, the results of the biomechanical tests established that heat treatment alters various biologically relevant mechanical properties of wood, thus expanding the possibilities of wood as a model material, which could include e.g. scaffold applications, bulk bone applications and serving as a tool for both mechanical testing and for further development of synthetic fiber reinforced composites.

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The Repair of segmental defects in load-bearing long bones is a challenging task because of the diversity of the load affecting the area; axial, bending, shearing and torsional forces all come together to test the stability/integrity of the bone. The natural biomechanical requirements for bone restorative materials include strength to withstand heavy loads, and adaptivity to conform into a biological environment without disturbing or damaging it. Fiber-reinforced composite (FRC) materials have shown promise, as metals and ceramics have been too rigid, and polymers alone are lacking in strength which is needed for restoration. The versatility of the fiber-reinforced composites also allows tailoring of the composite to meet the multitude of bone properties in the skeleton. The attachment and incorporation of a bone substitute to bone has been advanced by different surface modification methods. Most often this is achieved by the creation of surface texture, which allows bone growth, onto the substitute, creating a mechanical interlocking. Another method is to alter the chemical properties of the surface to create bonding with the bone – for example with a hydroxyapatite (HA) or a bioactive glass (BG) coating. A novel fiber-reinforced composite implant material with a porous surface was developed for bone substitution purposes in load-bearing applications. The material’s biomechanical properties were tailored with unidirectional fiber reinforcement to match the strength of cortical bone. To advance bone growth onto the material, an optimal surface porosity was created by a dissolution process, and an addition of bioactive glass to the material was explored. The effects of dissolution and orientation of the fiber reinforcement were also evaluated for bone-bonding purposes. The Biological response to the implant material was evaluated in a cell culture study to assure the safety of the materials combined. To test the material’s properties in a clinical setting, an animal model was used. A critical-size bone defect in a rabbit’s tibia was used to test the material in a load-bearing application, with short- and long-term follow-up, and a histological evaluation of the incorporation to the host bone. The biomechanical results of the study showed that the material is durable and the tailoring of the properties can be reproduced reliably. The Biological response - ex vivo - to the created surface structure favours the attachment and growth of bone cells, with the additional benefit of bioactive glass appearing on the surface. No toxic reactions to possible agents leaching from the material could be detected in the cell culture study when compared to a nontoxic control material. The mechanical interlocking was enhanced - as expected - with the porosity, whereas the reinforcing fibers protruding from the surface of the implant gave additional strength when tested in a bone-bonding model. Animal experiments verified that the material is capable of withstanding load-bearing conditions in prolonged use without breaking of the material or creating stress shielding effects to the host bone. A Histological examination verified the enhanced incorporation to host bone with an abundance of bone growth onto and over the material. This was achieved with minimal tissue reactions to a foreign body. An FRC implant with surface porosity displays potential in the field of reconstructive surgery, especially regarding large bone defects with high demands on strength and shape retention in load-bearing areas or flat bones such as facial / cranial bones. The benefits of modifying the strength of the material and adjusting the surface properties with fiber reinforcement and bone-bonding additives to meet the requirements of different bone qualities are still to be fully discovered.

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This work is devoted to the problem of reconstructing the basis weight structure at paper web with black{box techniques. The data that is analyzed comes from a real paper machine and is collected by an o®-line scanner. The principal mathematical tool used in this work is Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) modelling. When coupled with the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT), it gives a very flexible and interesting tool for analyzing properties of the paper web. Both ARMA and DFT are independently used to represent the given signal in a simplified version of our algorithm, but the final goal is to combine the two together. Ljung-Box Q-statistic lack-of-fit test combined with the Root Mean Squared Error coefficient gives a tool to separate significant signals from noise.

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The aim of `Valssi' study was to find out the service requirements in `business-to-business' (B2B) markets and to present a new logistics service concept, where the traditional logistics service is expanded with significant manufacturing and value addedfacilities. The traditional third-party logistics service providers are not necessarily able to offer services, which cover widely the needs of potential customers. The study has been outlined to spare part markets in metal industry. In the second phase of the Valssi-project the aim is to examine the economical conditions and potentiality of the new logistics business concept. This research report (Part 1) concentrates on examining current trends in global and domestic logistics markets. Based on detailed survey among the participating companies, the study presents basis for a new logistics business concept model. The developed concept consists of 12 different service modules, which are split into deeper details of processes. The integration of worldwide supplier and service provider network together with customer companies systems is a challenge. The report focuses on evaluating the requirements for the new business concept from the customer-companies point of view. The study paints an overall picture of distribution and service provider network including an abstract about the software and system integration possibilities. As a result of the survey, it can be concluded that thereis need for the new business concept among the participating companies, and a modular service concept meets the requirements of them, because the new sophisticated concept considers the specialities involved in spare part logistics in metal industry.

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Membrane filtration has become increasingly attractive in the processing of both foodand biotechnological products. However, the poor selectivity of the membranes and fouling are the critical factors limiting the development of UF systems for the specific fractionation of protein mixtures. This thesis gives an overview on fractionation of proteins from model protein solutions or from biological solutions. An attempt was made to improve the selectivity of the available membranes by modifying the membranes and by exploiting the different electrostatic interactions between the proteins and the membrane pore surfaces. Fractionation and UF behavior of proteins in the model solutions and in the corresponding biological solutions were compared. Characterization of the membranes and protein adsorptionto the membrane were investigated with combined flux and streaming potential studies. It has been shown that fouling of the membranes can be reduced using "self-rejecting" membranes at pH values where electrostatic repulsion is achieved between the membrane and the proteins in solution. This effect is best shown in UF of dilute single protein solutions at low ionic strengths and low pressures. Fractionation of model proteins in single, binary, and ternary solutionshas been carried out. The results have been compared to the results obtained from fractination of biological solutions. It was generally observed that fractination of proteins from biological solutions are more difficult to carry out owingto the presence of non studied protein components with different properties. Itcan be generally concluded that it is easier to enrich the smaller protein in the permeate but it is also possible to enrich the larger protein in the permeateat pH values close to the isoelectric point of the protein. It should be possible to find an optimal flux and modification to effectively improve the fractination of proteins even with very similar molar masses.

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Lapsen karieshoidon kustannuskertymän muutokset ja karieshoidon toimintakäytäntöjen yhteys kustannuksiin Tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli mitata terveyskeskuksessa hoidettavien lasten karieshoidon kumulatiivisia kustannuksia ja verrata niitä kahden erilaisen toimintatavan välillä. Lisäksi tarkasteltiin lasten hampaiden terveyttä. Tutkimus tehtiin julkisen palvelutuottajan näkökulmasta. Tutkimusaineisto kerättiin Kemin ja Tornion terveyskeskusten suun terveydenhuollon potilaskertomuksista. Kemin kohortit 1980, 1983 ja 1986 (n = 600) ja Tornion kohortit 1980 ja 1992 (n = 400) edustivat perinteistä ja Kemin kohortit 1989, 1992 ja 1995 (n = 600) uutta toimintatapaa työnjaon ja ehkäisyn ajoituksen suhteen. Kohortteja ja kaupunkeja verrattiin hampaiden terveyden (dmft/DMFT = 0 ja dmft ja DMFT keskiarvot 5 ja 12 vuoden iässä) ja voimavarojen käytön suhteen. Panoskäyttö johdettiin käyntimäärien avulla laskennallisen työajan kautta. Kustannuskertymät muodostettiin käyttämällä henkilöstömenoista laskettuja suorittajakohtaisia yksikkökustannuksia. Panoskäytön ja yksikkökustannusten kautta muodostettiin kustannuskertymät. Kustannusten ja terveysvaikutusten suhteita arvioitiin kustannus-vaikuttavuusanalyysissä. Suuhygienistien työpanosta hyödyntävällä varhaisen ehkäisyn toimintamallilla saavutettiin vähäisemmin kustannuksin alle kouluiässä parempi ja kouluiässä yhtä hyvä hammasterveys kuin perinteisellä, enemmän hammaslääkärien työpanokseen perustuvalla tavalla. Karieksen hoitoon liittyvien käyntien määrä oli nuorimmissa syntymävuosikohorteissa pienempi kuin vanhimmissa kohorteissa. Käynnit hammaslääkärissä vähenivät eniten. Toimintatavalla oli merkittävä vaikutus lapsen karieshoidon kokonaiskustannuksiin. Herkkyysanalyysin mukaan karieshoidon kustannukset olivat työnjakoa hyödyntämällä kolmanneksen pienemmät, kuin jos hoidon suorittajana olisi ollut ainoastaan hammaslääkäri-hoitaja työpari. Lasten karieshoidon kustannusvaikuttavuus kohentui molemmissa terveyskeskuksissa nuoremmissa kohorteissa vanhempiin verrattuna. Suun terveydenhuollon potilaskertomuksia olisi hyödynnettävä toiminnan kehittämisessä. Varhaisen ehkäisyn avulla voitaisiin kaikkien suun terveydenhuollon ammattihenkilöiden työpanos kohdentaa kustannustehokkaasti.

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Identification of order of an Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) by the usual graphical method is subjective. Hence, there is a need of developing a technique to identify the order without employing the graphical investigation of series autocorrelations. To avoid subjectivity, this thesis focuses on determining the order of the Autoregressive Moving Average Model using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC). The RJMCMC selects the model from a set of the models suggested by better fitting, standard deviation errors and the frequency of accepted data. Together with deep analysis of the classical Box-Jenkins modeling methodology the integration with MCMC algorithms has been focused through parameter estimation and model fitting of ARMA models. This helps to verify how well the MCMC algorithms can treat the ARMA models, by comparing the results with graphical method. It has been seen that the MCMC produced better results than the classical time series approach.

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The thesis examines the profitability of DMAC trading rules in the Finnish stock market over the 1996-2012 period. It contributes to the existing technical analysis literature by comparing for the first time the performance of DMAC strategies based on individual stock trading portfolios to the performance of index trading strategies based on the trading on the index (OMX Helsinki 25) that consists of the same stocks. Besides, the market frictions including transaction costs and taxes are taken into account, and the results are reported from both institutional and individual investor’s perspective. Performance characteristic of DMAC rules are evaluated by simulating 19,900 different trading strategies in total for two non- overlapping 8-year sub-periods, and decomposing the full-sample-period performance of DMAC trading strategies into distinct bullish- and bearish-period performances. The results show that the best DMAC rules have predictive power on future price trends, and these rules are able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy. Although the performance of the DMAC strategies is highly dependent on the combination of moving average lengths, the best DMAC rules of the first sub-period have also performed well during the latter sub-period in the case of individual stock trading strategies. According to the results, the outperformance of DMAC trading rules over buy-and-hold strategy is mostly attributed to their superiority during the bearish periods, and particularly, during stock market crashes.

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In this thesis, stepwise titration with hydrochloric acid was used to obtain chemical reactivities and dissolution rates of ground limestones and dolostones of varying geological backgrounds (sedimentary, metamorphic or magmatic). Two different ways of conducting the calculations were used: 1) a first order mathematical model was used to calculate extrapolated initial reactivities (and dissolution rates) at pH 4, and 2) a second order mathematical model was used to acquire integrated mean specific chemical reaction constants (and dissolution rates) at pH 5. The calculations of the reactivities and dissolution rates were based on rate of change of pH and particle size distributions of the sample powders obtained by laser diffraction. The initial dissolution rates at pH 4 were repeatedly higher than previously reported literature values, whereas the dissolution rates at pH 5 were consistent with former observations. Reactivities and dissolution rates varied substantially for dolostones, whereas for limestones and calcareous rocks, the variation can be primarily explained by relatively large sample standard deviations. A list of the dolostone samples in a decreasing order of initial reactivity at pH 4 is: 1) metamorphic dolostones with calcite/dolomite ratio higher than about 6% 2) sedimentary dolostones without calcite 3) metamorphic dolostones with calcite/dolomite ratio lower than about 6% The reactivities and dissolution rates were accompanied by a wide range of experimental techniques to characterise the samples, to reveal how different rocks changed during the dissolution process, and to find out which factors had an influence on their chemical reactivities. An emphasis was put on chemical and morphological changes taking place at the surfaces of the particles via X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). Supporting chemical information was obtained with X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) measurements of the samples, and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and Inductively Coupled Plasma-Optical Emission Spectrometry (ICP-OES) measurements of the solutions used in the reactivity experiments. Information on mineral (modal) compositions and their occurrence was provided by X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Energy Dispersive X-ray analysis (EDX) and studying thin sections with a petrographic microscope. BET (Brunauer, Emmet, Teller) surface areas were determined from nitrogen physisorption data. Factors increasing chemical reactivity of dolostones and calcareous rocks were found to be sedimentary origin, higher calcite concentration and smaller quartz concentration. Also, it is assumed that finer grain size and larger BET surface areas increase the reactivity although no certain correlation was found in this thesis. Atomic concentrations did not correlate with the reactivities. Sedimentary dolostones, unlike metamorphic ones, were found to have porous surface structures after dissolution. In addition, conventional (XPS) and synchrotron based (HRXPS) X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy were used to study bonding environments on calcite and dolomite surfaces. Both samples are insulators, which is why neutralisation measures such as electron flood gun and a conductive mask were used. Surface core level shifts of 0.7 ± 0.1 eV for Ca 2p spectrum of calcite and 0.75 ± 0.05 eV for Mg 2p and Ca 3s spectra of dolomite were obtained. Some satellite features of Ca 2p, C 1s and O 1s spectra have been suggested to be bulk plasmons. The origin of carbide bonds was suggested to be beam assisted interaction with hydrocarbons found on the surface. The results presented in this thesis are of particular importance for choosing raw materials for wet Flue Gas Desulphurisation (FGD) and construction industry. Wet FGD benefits from high reactivity, whereas construction industry can take advantage of slow reactivity of carbonate rocks often used in the facades of fine buildings. Information on chemical bonding environments may help to create more accurate models for water-rock interactions of carbonates.

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The objective of this study was to increase understanding of the link between the identification of required HR competences and competence management alignment with business strategy in a Finnish, global company employing over 8,000 people and about 100 HR professionals. This aim was approached by analyzing the data collected in focus group interviews using a grounded theory method and in parallel reviewing the literature of strategic human resource management, competence-based strategic management, strategy and foresight. The literature on competence management in different contexts dismisses in-depth discussions on the foresight process and individuals are often forgotten in strategic frameworks. However, corporate foresight helps in the detection of emerging opportunities for innovations and in the implementation of strategy. The empirical findings indicate a lack of strategic leadership and an alignment with HR and business. Accordingly, the most important HR competence areas identified were the need for increasing business understanding and enabling change. As a result, the study provided a holistic model for competence foresight, which introduces HR professionals as strategic change agents in the role of organizational futurists at the heart of the company: facilitating competence foresight and competence development on individual as well as organizational levels, resulting in an agile organization with increased business understanding, sensitive sensors and adaptive actions to enable change.

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The Chinese welding industry is growing every year due to rapid development of the Chinese economy. Increasingly, companies around the world are looking to use Chinese enterprises as their cooperation partners. However, the Chinese welding industry also has its weaknesses, such as relatively low quality and weak management. A modern, advanced welding management system appropriate for local socio-economic conditions is required to enable Chinese enterprises to enhance further their business development. The thesis researches the design and implementation of a new welding quality management system for China. This new system is called ‗welding production quality control management model in China‘ (WQMC). Constructed on the basis of analysis of a survey and in-company interviews, the welding management system comprises the following different elements and perspectives: a ‗Localized congenital existing problem resolution strategies‘ (LCEPRS) database, a ‗human factor designed training system‘ (HFDT) training strategy, the theory of modular design, ISO 3834 requirements, total welding management (TWM), and lean manufacturing (LEAN) theory. The methods used in the research are literature review, questionnaires, interviews, and the author‘s model design experiences and observations, i.e. the approach is primarily qualitative and phenomenological. The thesis describes the design and implementation of a HFDT strategy in Chinese welding companies. Such training is an effective way to increase employees‘ awareness of quality and issues associated with quality assurance. The study identified widely existing problems in the Chinese welding industry and constructed a LCEPRS database that can be used in efforts to mitigate and avoid common problems. The work uses the theory of modular design, TWM and LEAN as tools for the implementation of the WQMC system.