Application of Neural Network Methods in the Prediction of Stock Markets

The purpose of the research is to define practical profit which can be achieved using neural network methods as a prediction instrument. The thesis investigates the ability of neural networks to forecast future events. This capability is checked on the example of price prediction during intraday trading on stock market. The executed experiments show predictions of average 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes’ prices based on data of one day and made by two different types of forecasting systems. These systems are based on the recurrent neural networks and back propagation neural nets. The precision of the predictions is controlled by the absolute error and the error of market direction. The economical effectiveness is estimated by a special trading system. In conclusion, the best structures of neural nets are tested with data of 31 days’ interval. The best results of the average percent of profit from one transaction (buying + selling) are 0.06668654, 0.188299453, 0.349854787 and 0.453178626, they were achieved for prediction periods 1, 2, 5 and 10 minutes. The investigation can be interesting for the investors who have access to a fast information channel with a possibility of every-minute data refreshment.

Application of Open Innovation Paradigm in Small and Medium Enterprises in Russia

The objective of this study is to explore how the Open Innovation paradigm is applied in by small and medium-size enterprises in Russia. The focus of the study is to understand how the processes of research and development and commercialization proceed in these kind of companies and to which extent they apply open innovation principles. Russian leadership makes certain steps for transition from the export of raw materials to an innovative model of economic growth. The research aims to disclose actual impact of these attempts. The closed innovation model and the erosion factors which lead to the destruction of an old one and emergence of new model are described. Features of open innovation implementation and intellectual property rights protection in small and medium enterprises are presented. To achieve the objective, a qualitative case study approach was chosen. Research includes facts and figures, views and opinions of management of studied companies related to innovation process in the company and in Russia in general. The research depicts the features of Open Innovation implementation by SMEs in Russia. A large number of research centers with necessary equipment and qualified personnel allow case companies to use external R&D effectively. They cooperate actively with research institutes, universities and laboratories. Thus, they apply inbound Open Innovation. On the contrary, lack of venture capital, low demand for technologies within the domestic market and weak protection of intellectual property limit the external paths to new markets. Licensing-out and creation of spin-off are isolated cases. Therefore, outbound Open Innovation is not a regular practice.

Application of Computational Fluid Dynamics in Modeling Blood Flow in Human Thoracic Aorta

The aim of this study was to simulate blood flow in thoracic human aorta and understand the role of flow dynamics in the initialization and localization of atherosclerotic plaque in human thoracic aorta. The blood flow dynamics in idealized and realistic models of human thoracic aorta were numerically simulated in three idealized and two realistic thoracic aorta models. The idealized models of thoracic aorta were reconstructed with measurements available from literature, and the realistic models of thoracic aorta were constructed by image processing Computed Tomographic (CT) images. The CT images were made available by South Karelia Central Hospital in Lappeenranta. The reconstruction of thoracic aorta consisted of operations, such as contrast adjustment, image segmentations, and 3D surface rendering. Additional design operations were performed to make the aorta model compatible for the numerical method based computer code. The image processing and design operations were performed with specialized medical image processing software. Pulsatile pressure and velocity boundary conditions were deployed as inlet boundary conditions. The blood flow was assumed homogeneous and incompressible. The blood was assumed to be a Newtonian fluid. The simulations with idealized models of thoracic aorta were carried out with Finite Element Method based computer code, while the simulations with realistic models of thoracic aorta were carried out with Finite Volume Method based computer code. Simulations were carried out for four cardiac cycles. The distribution of flow, pressure and Wall Shear Stress (WSS) observed during the fourth cardiac cycle were extensively analyzed. The aim of carrying out the simulations with idealized model was to get an estimate of flow dynamics in a realistic aorta model. The motive behind the choice of three aorta models with distinct features was to understand the dependence of flow dynamics on aorta anatomy. Highly disturbed and nonuniform distribution of velocity and WSS was observed in aortic arch, near brachiocephalic, left common artery, and left subclavian artery. On the other hand, the WSS profiles at the roots of branches show significant differences with geometry variation of aorta and branches. The comparison of instantaneous WSS profiles revealed that the model with straight branching arteries had relatively lower WSS compared to that in the aorta model with curved branches. In addition to this, significant differences were observed in the spatial and temporal profiles of WSS, flow, and pressure. The study with idealized model was extended to study blood flow in thoracic aorta under the effects of hypertension and hypotension. One of the idealized aorta models was modified along with the boundary conditions to mimic the thoracic aorta under the effects of hypertension and hypotension. The results of simulations with realistic models extracted from CT scans demonstrated more realistic flow dynamics than that in the idealized models. During systole, the velocity in ascending aorta was skewed towards the outer wall of aortic arch. The flow develops secondary flow patterns as it moves downstream towards aortic arch. Unlike idealized models, the distribution of flow was nonplanar and heavily guided by the artery anatomy. Flow cavitation was observed in the aorta model which was imaged giving longer branches. This could not be properly observed in the model with imaging containing a shorter length for aortic branches. The flow circulation was also observed in the inner wall of the aortic arch. However, during the diastole, the flow profiles were almost flat and regular due the acceleration of flow at the inlet. The flow profiles were weakly turbulent during the flow reversal. The complex flow patterns caused a non-uniform distribution of WSS. High WSS was distributed at the junction of branches and aortic arch. Low WSS was distributed at the proximal part of the junction, while intermedium WSS was distributed in the distal part of the junction. The pulsatile nature of the inflow caused oscillating WSS at the branch entry region and inner curvature of aortic arch. Based on the WSS distribution in the realistic model, one of the aorta models was altered to induce artificial atherosclerotic plaque at the branch entry region and inner curvature of aortic arch. Atherosclerotic plaque causing 50% blockage of lumen was introduced in brachiocephalic artery, common carotid artery, left subclavian artery, and aortic arch. The aim of this part of the study was first to study the effect of stenosis on flow and WSS distribution, understand the effect of shape of atherosclerotic plaque on flow and WSS distribution, and finally to investigate the effect of lumen blockage severity on flow and WSS distributions. The results revealed that the distribution of WSS is significantly affected by plaque with mere 50% stenosis. The asymmetric shape of stenosis causes higher WSS in branching arteries than in the cases with symmetric plaque. The flow dynamics within thoracic aorta models has been extensively studied and reported here. The effects of pressure and arterial anatomy on the flow dynamic were investigated. The distribution of complex flow and WSS is correlated with the localization of atherosclerosis. With the available results we can conclude that the thoracic aorta, with complex anatomy is the most vulnerable artery for the localization and development of atherosclerosis. The flow dynamics and arterial anatomy play a role in the localization of atherosclerosis. The patient specific image based models can be used to diagnose the locations in the aorta vulnerable to the development of arterial diseases such as atherosclerosis.

Evaluating the Maturity of Data Management Practices in a Major Energy Provider Company

Data is the most important asset of a company in the information age. Other assets, such as technology, facilities or products can be copied or reverse-engineered, employees can be brought over, but data remains unique to every company. As data management topics are slowly moving from unknown unknowns to known unknowns, tools to evaluate and manage data properly are developed and refined. Many projects are in progress today to develop various maturity models for evaluating information and data management practices. These maturity models come in many shapes and sizes: from short and concise ones meant for a quick assessment, to complex ones that call for an expert assessment by experienced consultants. In this paper several of them, made not only by external inter-organizational groups and authors, but also developed internally at a Major Energy Provider Company (MEPC) are juxtaposed and thoroughly analyzed. Apart from analyzing the available maturity models related to Data Management, this paper also selects the one with the most merit and describes and analyzes using it to perform a maturity assessment in MEPC. The utility of maturity models is two-fold: descriptive and prescriptive. Besides recording the current state of Data Management practices maturity by performing the assessments, this maturity model is also used to chart the way forward. Thus, after the current situation is presented, analysis and recommendations on how to improve it based on the definitions of higher levels of maturity are given. Generally, the main trend observed was the widening of the Data Management field to include more business and “soft” areas (as opposed to technical ones) and the change of focus towards business value of data, while assuming that the underlying IT systems for managing data are “ideal”, that is, left to the purely technical disciplines to design and maintain. This trend is not only present in Data Management but in other technological areas as well, where more and more attention is given to innovative use of technology, while acknowledging that the strategic importance of IT as such is diminishing.

Application of the scrum framework in non-software project management

Scrum is an agile project management approach that has been widely practiced in the software development projects. It has proven to increase quality, productivity, customer satisfaction, transparency and team morale among other benefits from its implementation. The concept of scrum is based on the concepts of incremental innovation strategies, lean manufacturing, kaizen, iterative development and so on and is usually contrasted with the linear development models such as the waterfall method in the software industry. The traditional approaches to project management such as the waterfall method imply intensive upfront planning and approval of the entire project. These sort of approaches work well in the well-defined stable environments where all the specifications of the project are known in the beginning. However, in the uncertain environments when a project requires continuous development and incorporation of new requirements, they do not tend to work well. The scrum framework was inspiraed by Nonaka’s article about new product developement and was later adopted by software development practitioners. This research explores conditions for and benefits of the application of scrum framework beyond software development projects. There are currently a few case studies on the scrum implementation in non-software projects, but there is a noticeable trend of it in the scrum practitioners’ community. The research is based on the real-life context multiple case study analysis of three different non-software projects. The results of the research showed that in order to succeed within scrum projects need to satisfy certain conditions – necessary and sufficient. Among them the key factors are uncertainty of the project environment, not well defined outcomes, commitment of the scrum teams and management support. The top advantages of scrum implementation identified in the present research include improved transparency, accountability, team morale, communications, cooperation and collaboration. Further researches are advised to be carried out in order to validate these findings on a larger sample and to focus on more specific areas of scrum project management implementation.

Heat Demand Forecasting Models’ Development: Use of Data Mining Tools in SQL Server Analysis Services

This thesis introduces heat demand forecasting models which are generated by using data mining algorithms. The forecast spans one full day and this forecast can be used in regulating heat consumption of buildings. For training the data mining models, two years of heat consumption data from a case building and weather measurement data from Finnish Meteorological Institute are used. The thesis utilizes Microsoft SQL Server Analysis Services data mining tools in generating the data mining models and CRISP-DM process framework to implement the research. Results show that the built models can predict heat demand at best with mean average percentage errors of 3.8% for 24-h profile and 5.9% for full day. A deployment model for integrating the generated data mining models into an existing building energy management system is also discussed.

The Use of Data Envelopment Analysis as Equity Portfolio Selection Criterion in the Finnish Stock Market

This thesis examines the application of data envelopment analysis as an equity portfolio selection criterion in the Finnish stock market during period 2001-2011. A sample of publicly traded firms in the Helsinki Stock Exchange is examined in this thesis. The sample covers the majority of the publicly traded firms in the Helsinki Stock Exchange. Data envelopment analysis is used to determine the efficiency of firms using a set of input and output financial parameters. The set of financial parameters consist of asset utilization, liquidity, capital structure, growth, valuation and profitability measures. The firms are divided into artificial industry categories, because of the industry-specific nature of the input and output parameters. Comparable portfolios are formed inside the industry category according to the efficiency scores given by the DEA and the performance of the portfolios is evaluated with several measures. The empirical evidence of this thesis suggests that with certain limitations, data envelopment analysis can successfully be used as portfolio selection criterion in the Finnish stock market when the portfolios are rebalanced at annual frequency according to the efficiency scores given by the data envelopment analysis. However, when the portfolios were rebalanced every two or three years, the results are mixed and inconclusive.

Utilization of non ferrous metals in boiler combustion environment

The made research is focused on possibility of application of non ferrous metals in boiler pressure parts as a substitute of currently used ferrous-base alloys. The main issue was to define resistive ability of some perspective non ferrous metals to chlorine induced corrosion. Experimental study was performed using simultaneous thermal analysis (STA) in the temperature range of 400-700 °C. The chloride induced corrosion was simulated by mixtures of metal samples with potassium chloride treated by synthetic air. The advantage of synergetic effect of non ferrous alloys compare to single metals is shown due to the obtained data from conducted thermal balance tests.

Analysis of heat transfer coefficient in silica nanofluids with water as base fluid under transitional flow

The effect of Reynolds number variation in a vertical double pipe counterflow heat exchanger due to the changes in viscosity can cause the change in flow regime, for instance, when heats up and cools down, it can convert from turbulent to laminar or inversely, that can have significant effect on heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop. Mainly, the range of transition phase has been studied in this study with the investigation of silica nanofluid dispersed in water in three different concentrations. The results have been compared with distilled water sample and showed a remarkable raise in heat transfer coefficient while pressure drop has been increased respectively, as well. Although pumping power has to go up at the same time and it is a drawback, heat transfer efficiency grows for diluted samples. On the other hand, for the most concentrated sample, effect of pressure drop dominates which leads to decline in the overall efficiency.

Master data quality management in a global enterprise

In a networked business environment the visibility requirements towards the supply operations and customer interface has become tighter. In order to meet those requirements the master data of case company is seen as an enabler. However the current state of master data and its quality are not seen good enough to meet those requirements. In this thesis the target of research was to develop a process for managing master data quality as a continuous process and find solutions to cleanse the current customer and supplier data to meet the quality requirements defined in that process. Based on the theory of Master Data Management and data cleansing, small amount of master data was analyzed and cleansed using one commercial data cleansing solution available on the market. This was conducted in cooperation with the vendor as a proof of concept. In the proof of concept the cleansing solution’s applicability to improve the quality of current master data was proved. Based on those findings and the theory of data management the recommendations and proposals for improving the quality of data were given. In the results was also discovered that the biggest reasons for poor data quality is the lack of data governance in the company, and the current master data solutions and its restrictions.

The Application of Enterprise Architecture Approach to Military Concept Development–Case Study

Abstract—Concept development and experimentation (CD&E) plays an important role in driving strategic transformation in the military community. Defence architecture frameworks, such as the NATO architecture framework, are considered excellent means to support CD&E. There is not much empirical evidence, however, to indicate how enterprise architectures (EA) are applied in the military community or particularly in military CD&E. Consequently, this paper describes and discusses empirical application of the EA approach in CD&E. The research method in the paper is a case study. Situational method engineering (SiME) is used as a framework to adapt the EA approach to the case project of the paper. The findings of the paper suggest that the EA is applicable to CD&E work, although all aspects of the original concept could not be expressed in the EA model of the case project. The results also show that the SiME method can support in applying the EA framework to the CD&E in the case project.

Nitrogen and phosphorus losses in surface runoff and drainage water after application of slurry and mineral fertilizer to perennial grass ley

Selostus: Typen ja fosforin kulkeutuminen pinta- ja salaojavalunnassa lietelannalla ja NKP-lannoitteella lannoitetulta nurmelta

Practical applications of a systematic approach to the chemical abatement of pollutants in water and air

The present dissertation is devoted to the systematic approach to the development of organic toxic and refractory pollutants abatement by chemical decomposition methods in aqueous and gaseous phases. The systematic approach outlines the basic scenario of chemical decomposition process applications with a step-by-step approximation to the most effective result with a predictable outcome for the full-scale application, confirmed by successful experience. The strategy includes the following steps: chemistry studies, reaction kinetic studies in interaction with the mass transfer processes under conditions of different control parameters, contact equipment design and studies, mathematical description of the process for its modelling and simulation, processes integration into treatment technology and its optimisation, and the treatment plant design. The main idea of the systematic approach for oxidation process introduction consists of a search for the most effective combination between the chemical reaction and the treatment device, in which the reaction is supposed to take place. Under this strategy,a knowledge of the reaction pathways, its products, stoichiometry and kinetics is fundamental and, unfortunately, often unavailable from the preliminary knowledge. Therefore, research made in chemistry on novel treatment methods, comprisesnowadays a substantial part of the efforts. Chemical decomposition methods in the aqueous phase include oxidation by ozonation, ozone-associated methods (O3/H2O2, O3/UV, O3/TiO2), Fenton reagent (H2O2/Fe2+/3+) and photocatalytic oxidation (PCO). In the gaseous phase, PCO and catalytic hydrolysis over zero valent ironsare developed. The experimental studies within the described methodology involve aqueous phase oxidation of natural organic matter (NOM) of potable water, phenolic and aromatic amino compounds, ethylene glycol and its derivatives as de-icing agents, and oxygenated motor fuel additives ¿ methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE) ¿ in leachates and polluted groundwater. Gas-phase chemical decomposition includes PCO of volatile organic compounds and dechlorination of chlorinated methane derivatives. The results of the research summarised here are presented in fifteenattachments (publications and papers submitted for publication and under preparation).

Reaction Kinetics and Viscosity Modelling in the Fusion Syntheses of Ca- and Ca/Mg-resinates

Rosin is a natural product from pine forests and it is used as a raw material in resinate syntheses. Resinates are polyvalent metal salts of rosin acids and especially Ca- and Ca/Mg- resinates find wide application in the printing ink industry. In this thesis, analytical methods were applied to increase general knowledge of resinate chemistry and the reaction kinetics was studied in order to model the non linear solution viscosity increase during resinate syntheses by the fusion method. Solution viscosity in toluene is an important quality factor for resinates to be used in printing inks. The concept of critical resinate concentration, c crit, was introduced to define an abrupt change in viscosity dependence on resinate concentration in the solution. The concept was then used to explain the non-inear solution viscosity increase during resinate syntheses. A semi empirical model with two estimated parameters was derived for the viscosity increase on the basis of apparent reaction kinetics. The model was used to control the viscosity and to predict the total reaction time of the resinate process. The kinetic data from the complex reaction media was obtained by acid value titration and by FTIR spectroscopic analyses using a conventional calibration method to measure the resinate concentration and the concentration of free rosin acids. A multivariate calibration method was successfully applied to make partial least square (PLS) models for monitoring acid value and solution viscosity in both mid-infrared (MIR) and near infrared (NIR) regions during the syntheses. The calibration models can be used for on line resinate process monitoring. In kinetic studies, two main reaction steps were observed during the syntheses. First a fast irreversible resination reaction occurs at 235 °C and then a slow thermal decarboxylation of rosin acids starts to take place at 265 °C. Rosin oil is formed during the decarboxylation reaction step causing significant mass loss as the rosin oil evaporates from the system while the viscosity increases to the target level. The mass balance of the syntheses was determined based on the resinate concentration increase during the decarboxylation reaction step. A mechanistic study of the decarboxylation reaction was based on the observation that resinate molecules are partly solvated by rosin acids during the syntheses. Different decarboxylation mechanisms were proposed for the free and solvating rosin acids. The deduced kinetic model supported the analytical data of the syntheses in a wide resinate concentration region, over a wide range of viscosity values and at different reaction temperatures. In addition, the application of the kinetic model to the modified resinate syntheses gave a good fit. A novel synthesis method with the addition of decarboxylated rosin (i.e. rosin oil) to the reaction mixture was introduced. The conversion of rosin acid to resinate was increased to the level necessary to obtain the target viscosity for the product at 235 °C. Due to a lower reaction temperature than in traditional fusion synthesis at 265 °C, thermal decarboxylation is avoided. As a consequence, the mass yield of the resinate syntheses can be increased from ca. 70% to almost 100% by recycling the added rosin oil.