Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

CFD Modelling of Direct Contact Condensation in Suppression Pools by Applying Condensation Models of Separated Flow

The condensation rate has to be high in the safety pressure suppression pool systems of Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) in order to fulfill their safety function. The phenomena due to such a high direct contact condensation (DCC) rate turn out to be very challenging to be analysed either with experiments or numerical simulations. In this thesis, the suppression pool experiments carried out in the POOLEX facility of Lappeenranta University of Technology were simulated. Two different condensation modes were modelled by using the 2-phase CFD codes NEPTUNE CFD and TransAT. The DCC models applied were the typical ones to be used for separated flows in channels, and their applicability to the rapidly condensing flow in the condensation pool context had not been tested earlier. A low Reynolds number case was the first to be simulated. The POOLEX experiment STB-31 was operated near the conditions between the ’quasi-steady oscillatory interface condensation’ mode and the ’condensation within the blowdown pipe’ mode. The condensation models of Lakehal et al. and Coste & Lavi´eville predicted the condensation rate quite accurately, while the other tested ones overestimated it. It was possible to get the direct phase change solution to settle near to the measured values, but a very high resolution of calculation grid was needed. Secondly, a high Reynolds number case corresponding to the ’chugging’ mode was simulated. The POOLEX experiment STB-28 was chosen, because various standard and highspeed video samples of bubbles were recorded during it. In order to extract numerical information from the video material, a pattern recognition procedure was programmed. The bubble size distributions and the frequencies of chugging were calculated with this procedure. With the statistical data of the bubble sizes and temporal data of the bubble/jet appearance, it was possible to compare the condensation rates between the experiment and the CFD simulations. In the chugging simulations, a spherically curvilinear calculation grid at the blowdown pipe exit improved the convergence and decreased the required cell count. The compressible flow solver with complete steam-tables was beneficial for the numerical success of the simulations. The Hughes-Duffey model and, to some extent, the Coste & Lavi´eville model produced realistic chugging behavior. The initial level of the steam/water interface was an important factor to determine the initiation of the chugging. If the interface was initialized with a water level high enough inside the blowdown pipe, the vigorous penetration of a water plug into the pool created a turbulent wake which invoked the chugging that was self-sustaining. A 3D simulation with a suitable DCC model produced qualitatively very realistic shapes of the chugging bubbles and jets. The comparative FFT analysis of the bubble size data and the pool bottom pressure data gave useful information to distinguish the eigenmodes of chugging, bubbling, and pool structure oscillations.

Palkkakirjanpito osana yrityksen talousohjausta- case tutkimus

Tutkielman tarkoituksena oli tutkia palkkakirjanpitoon liittyviä näkökulmia ja niiden vaikutuksia talousohjaukseen sekä tuoda esille kehitysideoita palkkakirjanpitäjien ja controllerien välisen yhteistyön kehittämiseksi. Lähtökohtana tarkasteltiin talousohjauksen ja palkkakirjanpidon yhteistyön nykytilaa ja aiempia tutkimuksia. Tämä tutkimus on empiirinen tapaustutkimus jossa tutkimusmetodina on käytetty kvalitatiivista analyysiä. Tutkimus on toteutettu puolistrukturoituja haastatteluja ja havainnointia apuna käyttäen. Tutkimuksessa nousi esille globalisaation ja yhteiskunnan muutoksen tuo-mat haasteet. Muutosten myötä molempien osapuolten tehtävien muuttu-minen ja erilaisissa palvelukeskuksissa toimiminen on muuttanut toimintaa ja osapuolten rooleja. Tulokset osoittavat että palkkakirjanpitäjien tiedon tuottamista controllereille, voidaan kehittää parhaiten panostamalla tiedon välitykseen, yhteistyönrakentamiseen ja tuottamalla erilaisia raportteja ennusteiden tueksi. Lisäksi on ymmärrettävä taustatekijät ja kasvatettava molempien osapuolten talousohjauksen ja palkkakirjanpidon tuntemusta. Nämä muutokset havainnollistamalla päästään rakentamaan hyvää ja laadukasta tiedon tuottamista, jolloin palkkakirjanpitäjät voivat olla paremmin osana liike-elämän tukemista.

MASTER DATA MANAGEMENT MATURITY AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT - From theory to practice, case Ineo Oy

After decades of mergers and acquisitions and successive technology trends such as CRM, ERP and DW, the data in enterprise systems is scattered and inconsistent. Global organizations face the challenge of addressing local uses of shared business entities, such as customer and material, and at the same time have a consistent, unique, and consolidate view of financial indicators. In addition, current enterprise systems do not accommodate the pace of organizational changes and immense efforts are required to maintain data. When it comes to systems integration, ERPs are considered “closed” and expensive. Data structures are complex and the “out-of-the-box” integration options offered are not based on industry standards. Therefore expensive and time-consuming projects are undertaken in order to have required data flowing according to business processes needs. Master Data Management (MDM) emerges as one discipline focused on ensuring long-term data consistency. Presented as a technology-enabled business discipline, it emphasizes business process and governance to model and maintain the data related to key business entities. There are immense technical and organizational challenges to accomplish the “single version of the truth” MDM mantra. Adding one central repository of master data might prove unfeasible in a few scenarios, thus an incremental approach is recommended, starting from areas most critically affected by data issues. This research aims at understanding the current literature on MDM and contrasting it with views from professionals. The data collected from interviews revealed details on the complexities of data structures and data management practices in global organizations, reinforcing the call for more in-depth research on organizational aspects of MDM. The most difficult piece of master data to manage is the “local” part, the attributes related to the sourcing and storing of materials in one particular warehouse in The Netherlands or a complex set of pricing rules for a subsidiary of a customer in Brazil. From a practical perspective, this research evaluates one MDM solution under development at a Finnish IT solution-provider. By means of applying an existing assessment method, the research attempts at providing the company with one possible tool to evaluate its product from a vendor-agnostics perspective.

Subjectivity in the valuation : Case study on the Finnish biotechnology industry

The thesis combines valuation and behavioral economics literature, which is not common among the Finnish management accounting research. Furthermore, the valuation is studied in biotechnology context and those type of studies are rather rare as well. The thesis studies the valuation in the Finnish biotechnology industry. The concepts of behavioral finance are employed in the empirical part of the study to explore decision-makers’ behavior in valuation processes. The main interest of this study is to explore how subjectivity of a decision-maker affects the valuation in the biotechnology industry. The valuation is studied from two perspectives. First, what is the best valuation model for biotechnology companies suggested by the valuation literature? Second, how the valuation in biotechnology industry is done in practice and how the decision-makers subjectivity affects the valuation? The literature review aims at seeking the best valuation model. The real options were found to be the most suitable valuation model for biotechnology companies, especially in the early stages of product development. The real option’s ability to take the value of the inherent options into account results in theoretically most correct valuations. The only disadvantage is the model’s complexity when compared to other models, such as discounted cash flow models. The empirical part of the study consists of a case study, which examines the valuation practices of the Finnish biotechnology companies. When it comes to the valuation models used in practice, it was found that the companies were using rather simple valuation models, which was due to two reasons. First, the interviewees did not believe in the valuation models and second, they were familiar neither with the most sophisticated models nor with all the theoretical aspects of the models they were using. The material for the study was collected with theme interviews. Four CEO’s of highly successful Finnish biotechnology companies. Strong signs of the decision-makers’ subjectivity in valuation were observed. Most obvious were the signs of framing. Furthermore, herding, excessive optimism, and overconfidence were present. All the behavioral concepts observed most likely have a severe effect on the valuation. As a result, the valuation can easily become overly optimistic, which leads to overvalued investments and to continuation of already unprofitable projects. Framing had the strongest evidence. If the product being valued is framed successfully, the risk of overvaluation is high, thus a strong belief can justify almost any value.

De-escalation of commitment management strategy in IT project management methodology: case of ERP implementation project by IT consulting company

According to several surveys and observations, the percentage of successfully conducted IT projects without over-budgeting and delays in time schedule are extremely low. Many projects also are evaluated as failures in terms of delivered functionality. Nuldén (1996) compares IT projects with bad movies; after watching for 2 hours, one still tries to finish it even though one understands that it is a complete waste of time. The argument for that is 'I've already invested too much time to terminate it now'. The same happens with IT projects: sometimes the company continues wasting money on these projects for a long time, even though there are no expected benefits from these projects. Eventually these projects are terminated anyway, but until this moment, the company spends a lot. The situation described above is a consequence of “escalation of commitment” - project continuation even after a manager receives negative feedback of the project’s success probability. According to Keil and Mähring (2010), even though escalation can occur in any type of project, it is more common among complex technological projects, such as IT projects. Escalation of commitment very often results in runaway projects. In order to avoid it, managers use de-escalation strategies, which allow the resources to be used in more effective. These strategies lead to project termination or turning around, which stops the flow of wasted investments. Numbers of researches explore escalation of commitment phenomena based on experiments and business cases. Moreover, during the last decade several frameworks were proposed for de-escalation strategy. However, there is no evidence of successful implementation of the de-escalation of commitment strategy in the literature. In addition, despite that fact that IT project management methodologies are widely used in the companies, none of them cover the topic of escalation of commitment risks. At the same time, there are no researches proposing the way to implement de-escalation of commitment strategy into the existing project management methodology The research is focused on a single case of large ERP implementation project by the consulting company. Hence, the main deliverables of the study include suggestions of improvement in de-escalation methods and techniques in the project and in the company. Moreover, the way to implement these methods into existing project management methodology and into the company general policies is found.

Tuotanto- ja pakkausmateriaalien varastojen nykytila ja kehittäminen lääkeannostelijoita valmistavassa tehtaassa

Diplomityön tarkoituksena oli selvittää lääkeannostelijoita valmistavan tehtaan materiaalivarastojen nykytila. Varaston nykytila-analyysi jaettiin pääoma- ja operatiivisen tehokkuuden arviointiin. Työssä haluttiin kartoittaa toimenpide-ehdotuksia varastonohjauksen tehostamiseksi. Diplomityön tarkoituksena oli myös lisätä avainhenkilöiden ymmärrystä koskien varastojen pidon vaikutuksia yrityksen liiketoimintaan. Varastojen nykytila voitiin kiteyttää suureen pääoman sitoutumiseen, hitaisiin kiertoaikoihin sekä tehokkaan työskentelyn kannalta liian pieniin ja ahtaisiin varastoihin. Kustannuksia ei ole otettu kokonaisuudessaan huomioon tilattaessa ja varastoitaessa materiaalia. Varaston hitaita kiertonopeuksia ei ole tunnistettu vaikuttajina yrityksen tulokseen ja kannattavuuteen. Jotta varastonohjaus- ja hankintaprosesseja voitaisiin tehostaa, pitäisi ostotoimintoihin tehdä muutoksia. Tilausrytmiä ja –määriä täytyisi harkita uudelleen, jotta voitaisiin vähentää varastoihin sitoutuvan pääoman määrää. Informaationvirtaa tehtaalla sekä organisaatiorajojen yli pitäisi parantaa, jotta voitaisiin vähentää kysynnän heilahteluja sekä siihen varautumista. Varmuusvarastojen pidosta saatavien korvausten olisi katettava koko materiaalin kiertoajan aikana syntyvät varastoinnin kustannukset.