Beta and debt premium for a Finnish distribution company

Suomessa sähkönjakelu on säännelty monopoli. Energiamarkkinavirasto tuottaa ohjeistuksen sekä mallin yritysten ansaintamahdollisuuksille. Karkeasti sanottuna tulomalli on sijoitetun pääoman ja pääoman painotetun kustannuksen tulo. Pääoman painotettu kustannus koostuu useista parametreista kuten beta ja vieraan pääoman riskipreemio. Näiden parametrien taso ja määrittämisajankohta perustuvat subjektiivisiin näkemyksiin, kun objektiivista parametrien määrittämismenetelmää tulisi käyttää. Nykyiset beta ja vieraan pääoman riskipreemio perustuvat energiamarkkinaviraston ja asiantuntijoiden lausuntoihin. Aihealuetta on tutkittu erittäin vähän, mikä johtunee pääasiassa siitä, ettei ole olemassa listautuneita puhtaita jakeluverkkoyhtiöitä. Betan nykytaso on 0.529 ja vieraan pääoman riskipreemio on 1.0 %. Tässä pro gradu –työssä määritetään markkinaperusteisesti betan ja vieraan pääoman riskipreemion nykytaso. Tässä työssä esiteltävä määrittämismalli perustuu puhtaasti markkinadataan eikä sen soveltamisessa käytetä subjektiivisia mielipiteitä. Markkinaehtoisia tietoja käyttäen betan pitäisi olla tasolla 0.525 ja vieraan pääoman riskipreemion tasolla 1.34 %. Nämä luvut, mikäli ne otettaisiin käyttöön, vaikuttaisivat suoraan ja positiivisesti jakeluverkkoyhtiöiden sallittuun tuottoon Suomessa.

Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Sähkönjakeluverkkoyhtiöiden kokemuksia liiketoiminnan taloudellisesta sääntelystä kolmannella valvontajaksolla 2012 - 2015

TIIVISTELMÄ Tekijä: Jouni Pyykkö Työn nimi: Sähkönjakeluverkkoyhtiöiden kokemuksia liiketoiminnan taloudellisesta sääntelystä kolmannella valvontajaksolla 2012 - 2015 Vuosi: 2014 Paikka: Hyvinkää Diplomityö. Lappeenrannan teknillinen yliopisto, Tuotantotalous. 115 sivua, 9 kuvaa, 2 taulukkoa Tarkastajat: Professori Timo Pihkala ja Tutkijatohtori Marita Rautiainen Hakusanat: Jakeluverkkoyhtiö, regulaatio ja sääntely Euroopan unionin 1990 -luvulla aloittama sähkömarkkinoiden kehittäminen on merkinnyt Suomessakin suuria muutoksia toimialan yrityksille. Sähköenergian kauppa ja tuotanto on saatettu vapaan markkinaehtoisen kilpailun piriin. Sen sijaan sähkönsiirron ja -jakelun liiketoiminnot on toteutettu alueellisten luonnollisten monopolien turvaamina liiketoimintamalleina. Monopolin kautta toteutettu liiketoiminta aiheuttaa merkittäviä eturistiriitoja sähkönjakeluverkkoliiketoiminnan sidosryhmille. Nämä ristiriidat voivat johtaa kuluttajan kannalta kohtuuttomaan sähkönsiirron hinnoitteluun. Toisaalta liiketoiminnan on turvattava jakeluverkkoyhtiölle riittävät kannusteet liiketoiminnan harjoittamiseen sekä turvata riittävät investointitasot sähköverkkoihin sähkönlaadun ja toimitusvarmuuden turvaamiseksi. Näiden eri sähkönjakeluliiketoiminnan sidosryhmien tarpeiden tasapainottamiseen käytetään Suomessa energiamarkkinaviranomaisen toteuttamaa verkkoyhtiöiden sääntelyä eli regulaatiota. Sääntelyn tavoitteena on turvata jakeluverkkoliiketoiminnan osapuolten ristiriitaiset edut niin, että kokonaisuuden aiheuttama hyvinvointitappio on mahdollisimman pieni. Tässä työssä tarkastellaan sääntelyn toimivuutta ja ongelmakohtia jakeluverkkoyhtiöiden liiketoiminnan näkökulmasta. Tutkimus on toteutettu haastattelemalla yhdeksää jakeluverkkoyhtiön edustajaa. Tavoitteena on löytää jakeluverkkoyhtiöiden näkökulmasta esiin nousevat sääntelyyn liittyvät ongelmat ja liiketoiminnan haasteet. Tutkielmassa luodaan myös kuvaus keskeisistä valvontamenetelmistä sekä toimenpiteistä, joilla jakeluverkkoyhtiöiden näkökulmasta sääntelymallia voisi parantaa ja tehostaa.

Susteinable steelmaking by process integration

Environmental issues, including global warming, have been serious challenges realized worldwide, and they have become particularly important for the iron and steel manufacturers during the last decades. Many sites has been shut down in developed countries due to environmental regulation and pollution prevention while a large number of production plants have been established in developing countries which has changed the economy of this business. Sustainable development is a concept, which today affects economic growth, environmental protection, and social progress in setting up the basis for future ecosystem. A sustainable headway may attempt to preserve natural resources, recycle and reuse materials, prevent pollution, enhance yield and increase profitability. To achieve these objectives numerous alternatives should be examined in the sustainable process design. Conventional engineering work cannot address all of these substitutes effectively and efficiently to find an optimal route of processing. A systematic framework is needed as a tool to guide designers to make decisions based on overall concepts of the system, identifying the key bottlenecks and opportunities, which lead to an optimal design and operation of the systems. Since the 1980s, researchers have made big efforts to develop tools for what today is referred to as Process Integration. Advanced mathematics has been used in simulation models to evaluate various available alternatives considering physical, economic and environmental constraints. Improvements on feed material and operation, competitive energy market, environmental restrictions and the role of Nordic steelworks as energy supplier (electricity and district heat) make a great motivation behind integration among industries toward more sustainable operation, which could increase the overall energy efficiency and decrease environmental impacts. In this study, through different steps a model is developed for primary steelmaking, with the Finnish steel sector as a reference, to evaluate future operation concepts of a steelmaking site regarding sustainability. The research started by potential study on increasing energy efficiency and carbon dioxide reduction due to integration of steelworks with chemical plants for possible utilization of available off-gases in the system as chemical products. These off-gases from blast furnace, basic oxygen furnace and coke oven furnace are mainly contained of carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, hydrogen, nitrogen and partially methane (in coke oven gas) and have proportionally low heating value but are currently used as fuel within these industries. Nonlinear optimization technique is used to assess integration with methanol plant under novel blast furnace technologies and (partially) substitution of coal with other reducing agents and fuels such as heavy oil, natural gas and biomass in the system. Technical aspect of integration and its effect on blast furnace operation regardless of capital expenditure of new operational units are studied to evaluate feasibility of the idea behind the research. Later on the concept of polygeneration system added and a superstructure generated with alternative routes for off-gases pretreatment and further utilization on a polygeneration system producing electricity, district heat and methanol. (Vacuum) pressure swing adsorption, membrane technology and chemical absorption for gas separation; partial oxidation, carbon dioxide and steam methane reforming for methane gasification; gas and liquid phase methanol synthesis are the main alternative process units considered in the superstructure. Due to high degree of integration in process synthesis, and optimization techniques, equation oriented modeling is chosen as an alternative and effective strategy to previous sequential modelling for process analysis to investigate suggested superstructure. A mixed integer nonlinear programming is developed to study behavior of the integrated system under different economic and environmental scenarios. Net present value and specific carbon dioxide emission is taken to compare economic and environmental aspects of integrated system respectively for different fuel systems, alternative blast furnace reductants, implementation of new blast furnace technologies, and carbon dioxide emission penalties. Sensitivity analysis, carbon distribution and the effect of external seasonal energy demand is investigated with different optimization techniques. This tool can provide useful information concerning techno-environmental and economic aspects for decision-making and estimate optimal operational condition of current and future primary steelmaking under alternative scenarios. The results of the work have demonstrated that it is possible in the future to develop steelmaking towards more sustainable operation.

Forecasting financial weather - can we foresee market sentiment? Spectrum of stock price behavior - NYSE case study

The desire to create a statistical or mathematical model, which would allow predicting the future changes in stock prices, was born many years ago. Economists and mathematicians are trying to solve this task by applying statistical analysis and physical laws, but there are still no satisfactory results. The main reason for this is that a stock exchange is a non-stationary, unstable and complex system, which is influenced by many factors. In this thesis the New York Stock Exchange was considered as the system to be explored. A topological analysis, basic statistical tools and singular value decomposition were conducted for understanding the behavior of the market. Two methods for normalization of initial daily closure prices by Dow Jones and S&P500 were introduced and applied for further analysis. As a result, some unexpected features were identified, such as a shape of distribution of correlation matrix, a bulk of which is shifted to the right hand side with respect to zero. Also non-ergodicity of NYSE was confirmed graphically. It was shown, that singular vectors differ from each other by a constant factor. There are for certain results no clear conclusions from this work, but it creates a good basis for the further analysis of market topology.

Software business expansion through distribution channel : Case M-Files - Denmark

The purpose of this study was to find out how a software company can successfully expand business to the Danish software market through distribution channel. The study was commissioned by a Finnish software company and it was conducted using a qualitative research method by analyzing external and internal business environment, and interviewing Danish ICT organizations and M-Files personnel. Interviews were semi-structured interviews, which were designed to collect comprehensive information on the existing ICT and software market in Denmark. The research used three external and internal analyzing frameworks; PEST analysis (market level), Porter´s Five Force analysis (industry level competition) and SWOT analysis (company level). Distribution channels theory was a base to understand why and what kind of distribution channels the case company uses, and what kind of channels target markets companies’ uses. Channel strategy and design were integrated to the industry level analysis. The empirical findings revealed that Denmark has very business friendly ICT environment. Several organizations have ranked Denmark´s information and communication technology as the best in the world. Denmark’s ICT and software market are relatively small, compared to many other countries in Europe. Danish software market is centralized. Largest software clusters are in the largest cities; Copenhagen, Aarhus, Odense and Aalborg. From these clusters, software companies can most likely find suitable resellers. The following growing trends are clearly seen in the software market: mobile and wireless applications, outsourcing, security solutions, cloud computing, social business solutions and e-business solutions. When expanding software business to the Danish market, it is important to take into account these trends. In Denmark distribution channels varies depending on the product or service. For many, a natural distribution channel is a local partner or internet. In the public sector solutions are purchased through a public procurement process. In the private sector the buying process is more straight forwarded. Danish companies are buying software from reliable suppliers. This means that they usually buy software direct from big software vendors or local partners. Some customers prefer to use professional consulting companies. These consulting companies can strongly influence on the selection of the supplier and products, and in this light, consulting companies can be important partners for software companies. Even though the competition is fierce in ECM and DMS solutions, Danish market offers opportunities for foreign companies. Penetration to the Danish market through reseller channel requires advanced solutions and objective selection criteria for channel partners. Based on the findings, Danish companies are interested in advanced and efficient software solutions. Interest towards M-Files solutions was clearly seen and the company has excellent opportunity to expand business to the Danish market through reseller channel. Since the research explored the Danish ICT and software market, the results of the study may offer valuable information also to the other software companies which are expanding their business to the Danish market.

Cross-border transmission capacity development – Experiences from the Nordic electricity markets

The liberalisation of the wholesale electricity markets has been considered an efficient way to organise the markets. In Europe, the target is to liberalise and integrate the common European electricity markets. However, insufficient transmission capacity between the market areas hampers the integration, and therefore, new investments are required. Again, massive transmission capacity investments are not usually easy to carry through. This doctoral dissertation aims at elaborating on critical determinants required to deliver the necessary transmission capacity investments. The Nordic electricity market is used as an illustrative example. This study suggests that changes in the governance structure have affected the delivery of Nordic cross-border investments. In addition, the impacts of not fully delivered investments are studied in this doctoral dissertation. An insufficient transmission network can degrade the market uniformity and may also cause a need to split the market into smaller submarkets. This may have financial impacts on market actors when the targeted efficient sharing of resources is not met and even encourage gaming. The research methods applied in this doctoral dissertation are mainly empirical ranging from a Delphi study to case studies and numerical calculations.

Distribution of Smart Solutions for External Lighting in Switzerland - Case C2 Smartlight Ltd.

Establishing of export operations is the key to the competitiveness for all producing companies in high-tech industry. Distribution partnerships between exporting producer and local distributors of relevant foreign market are utilized by SMEs to gain cost-efficiency of operation. The purpose of this study was to investigate the Swiss market of outdoor lighting solutions and propose distribution channels for the case of company C2 SmartLight Ltd. The literature framework consists of three main parts: description of distribution channels for business products, the selection process of the distributor and management of the distributors. The empirical part of this study composed of the observation of Swiss lighting market, highlighting key customers, trends of energy efficiency and key industry players of the lighting market. The aim was to identify potential distribution channels, which reach the target customer groups and identify the market opportunity. Secondly, the data was collected through semi-structured phone interviews. The company, which operates in outdoor lighting business and has an established distributor in Switzerland, was interviewed and used as a benchmark. As a result of this research the market opportunity for distribution of C2 SmartLight products was identified based on potential customers and market need. C2 SmartLight Ltd. should establish a connection with wholesalers that distribute easy to handle and store electrical equipment. The results of this study can be used by other SME companies, operating in a similar field of economy, for selection of distributors.

Datahubin merkitys jakeluverkonhaltijalle case: Vantaan Energia Sähköverkot Oy

Tavoitteena oleva hiilineutraali energiantuotanto muokkaa sähköntuotannosta sykkivämpää ja vaatii kulutuksen sopeutumista siihen. Tämä synnyttää tarpeen kansallisia markkinoita laajemmille sähkön vähittäismarkkinoille ja vaatii kuluttajilta aktiivisempaa roolia markkinoilla. Pohjoismaiset kantaverkkoyhtiöt ovat alkaneet valmistella pohjoismaisia sähkömarkkinoita sähkön vähittäiskaupan avaamiselle. Sähkön vähittäiskaupan avautuminen eri maiden välillä vaatii kansallisten markkinamenetelmien yhtenäistämistä varsinkin taseselvityksen ja tiedonvaihdon osalta. Tässä työssä tutkitaan Suomessa vuonna 2019 käyttöönotettavan keskitetyn tiedonvaihtojärjestelmän, Datahubin, vaikutuksia jakeluverkonhaltijalle. Vaikutuksia tarkastellaan Vantaan Energia Sähköverkot Oy:n näkökulmasta. Työssä kartoitetaan jakeluverkonhaltijan nykyisiä liiketoiminnan pääprosesseja ja niihin liittyvää tiedonvaihtoa eri markkinaosapuolten kanssa prosessien toteutuksessa. Lisäksi työssä esitellään jakeluverkonhaltijan nykyisten liiketoiminnan pääprosessien toteuttaminen Datahubissa. Jakeluverkonhaltijan liiketoiminnan nykyisiä pääprosesseja ja tiedonvaihtoa verrataan Datahubin kautta suoritettaviin prosesseihin. Työssä todettiin Datahubin korjaavan jakeluverkonhaltijan liiketoiminannan nykyisissä pääprosesseissa havaittuja ongelmia ja mahdollistavan prosessien tehostamisen. Datahub ei sinällään muuta nykyisiä jakeluverkonhaltijan liiketoimintaprosesseja merkittävästi, mutta mahdollistaa prosessien kehittämisen markkinoiden muutoksen mukana. Datahubin kokonaisvaltainen hyödyntäminen on toimijoiden itsensä käsissä, niiltä osin, kun sähkömarkkinalaki ei velvoita tiettyyn toimintamalliin. Jakeluverkonhaltijan liiketoimintaprosessien osalta suurin muutos kohdistuu jakeluverkonhaltijan taseselvitykseen, joka siirtyy kokonaisuudessaan Datahubin tehtäväksi. Datahub tulee kaventamaan jakeluverkonhaltijan roolia markkinapaikalla ja siksi jakeluverkonhaltijoiden tulisi kartoittaa liiketoiminnan laajentamisen tarvetta ja mahdollisuuksia tulevaisuudessa.