Accuracy improvement of a demand forecasting model

This research concerns different statistical methods that assist to increase the demand forecasting accuracy of company X’s forecasting model. Current forecasting process was analyzed in details. As a result, graphical scheme of logical algorithm was developed. Based on the analysis of the algorithm and forecasting errors, all the potential directions for model future improvements in context of its accuracy were gathered into the complete list. Three improvement directions were chosen for further practical research, on their basis, three test models were created and verified. Novelty of this work lies in the methodological approach of the original analysis of the model, which identified its critical points, as well as the uniqueness of the developed test models. Results of the study formed the basis of the grant of the Government of St. Petersburg.

Hysteresis Losses in Sintered NdFeB Permanent Magnets in Rotating Electrical Machines

Permanent magnet materials are nowadays widely used in the electrical machine manufacturing industry. Eddy current loss models of permanent magnets used in electrical machines are frequently discussed in research papers. In magnetic steel materials we have, in addition to eddy current losses, hysteresis losses when AC or a rotating flux travels through the material. Should a similar phenomenon also be taken into account in calculating the losses of permanent magnets? Actually, every now and then authors seem to assume that some significant hysteresis losses are present in rotating machine PMs. This paper studies the mechanisms of possible hysteresis losses in PMs and their role in PMs when used in rotating electrical machines.

Replacing Copper with New Carbon Nanomaterials in Electrical Machine Windings

Electrical machines have significant improvement potential. Nevertheless, the field is characterized by incremental innovations. Admittedly, steady improvement has been achieved, but no breakthrough development. Radical development in the field would require the introduction of new elements, such that may change the whole electrical machine industry system. Recent technological advancements in nanomaterials have opened up new horizons for the macroscopic application of carbon nanotube (CNT) fibres. With values of 100 MS/m measured on individual CNTs, CNT fibre materials hold promise for conductivities far beyond those of metals. Highly conductive, lightweight and strong CNT yarn is finally within reach; it could replace copper as a potentially better winding material. Although not yet providing low resistivity, the newest CNT yarn offers attractive perspectives for accelerated efficiency improvement of electrical machines. In this article, the potential for using new CNT materials to replace copper in machine windings is introduced. It does so, firstly, by describing the environment for a change that could revolutionize the industry and, secondly, by presenting the breakthrough results of a prototype construction. In the test motor, which is to our knowledge the first in its kind, the presently most electrically conductive carbon nanotube yarn replaces usual copper in the windings.

Development of project cash flow forecasting process

Process management refers to improving the key functions of a company. The main functions of the case company - project management, procurement, finance, and human resource - use their own separate systems. The case company is in the process of changing its software. Different functions will use the same system in the future. This software change causes changes in some of the company’s processes. Project cash flow forecasting process is one of the changing processes. Cash flow forecasting ensures the sufficiency of money and prepares for possible changes in the future. This will help to ensure the company’s viability. The purpose of the research is to describe a new project cash flow forecasting process. In addition, the aim is to analyze the impacts of the process change, with regard to the project control department’s workload and resources through the process measurement, and how the impacts take the department’s future operations into account. The research is based on process management. Processes, their descriptions, and the way the process management uses the information, are discussed in the theory part of this research. The theory part is based on literature and articles. Project cash flow and forecasting-related benefits are also discussed. After this, the project cash flow forecasting as-is and to-be processes are described by utilizing information, obtained from the theoretical part, as well as the know-how of the project control department’s personnel. Written descriptions and cross-functional flowcharts are used for descriptions. Process measurement is based on interviews with the personnel – mainly cost controllers and department managers. The process change and the integration of two processes will allow work time for other things, for example, analysis of costs. In addition to the quality of the cash flow information will improve compared to the as-is process. Analyzing the department’s other main processes, department’s roles, and their responsibilities should be checked and redesigned. This way, there will be an opportunity to achieve the best possible efficiency and cost savings.

Accuracy in book papers' sales forecasting

The main objective of this thesis was to study if the quantitative sales forecasting methods will enhance the accuracy of the sales forecast in comparison to qualitative sales forecasting method. A literature review in the field of forecasting was conducted, including general sales forecasting process, forecasting methods and techniques and forecasting accuracy measurement. In the empirical part of the study the accuracy of the forecasts provided by both qualitative and quantitative methods is being studied and compared in the case of short, medium and long term forecasts. The SAS® Forecast Server –tool was used in creating the quantitative forecasts.

Load balancing in P2P smartphone based distributed IoT systems

With the new age of Internet of Things (IoT), object of everyday such as mobile smart devices start to be equipped with cheap sensors and low energy wireless communication capability. Nowadays mobile smart devices (phones, tablets) have become an ubiquitous device with everyone having access to at least one device. There is an opportunity to build innovative applications and services by exploiting these devices’ untapped rechargeable energy, sensing and processing capabilities. In this thesis, we propose, develop, implement and evaluate LoadIoT a peer-to-peer load balancing scheme that can distribute tasks among plethora of mobile smart devices in the IoT world. We develop and demonstrate an android-based proof of concept load-balancing application. We also present a model of the system which is used to validate the efficiency of the load balancing approach under varying application scenarios. Load balancing concepts can be apply to IoT scenario linked to smart devices. It is able to reduce the traffic send to the Cloud and the energy consumption of the devices. The data acquired from the experimental outcomes enable us to determine the feasibility and cost-effectiveness of a load balanced P2P smart phone-based applications.

Hävittäjäohjaajan kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason mittaaminen NASA-Task Load Index ja Modified Cooper-Harper -mittareilla F/A-18 virtuaalisimulaattorissa

F/A-18-monitoimihävittäjän ohjaajan tehtävän kognitiiviset vaatimukset ovat korkeat. Kognitiivisen kuormituksen taso vaikuttaa hävittäjäohjaajan suoritustasoon ja subjektiivisiin tun-temuksiin. Yerkesin ja Dodsonin periaatteen mukaisesti erittäin matala tai erittäin korkea kuormituksen taso laskee suoritustasoa. Optimaalinen kuormituksen taso ja suoritustaso saa-vutetaan jossain ääripäiden välillä. Hävittäjäohjaajan kognitiivisen kuormituksen tasoon vaikuttaa lentotehtävän suorittamiseen vaadittava henkinen ponnistelu. Vaadittavan ponnistelun taso riippuu tehtävien vaatimustasosta ja määrästä, tehtäviin käytettävissä olevasta ajasta sekä yksilöllisistä ominaisuuksista. Tutkimuksessa mitattiin kognitiivisen kuormituksen tasoa subjektiivisen arvioinnin menetelmällä NASA-TLX (National Aeronautics and Space Administration - Task Load Index) ja MCH (Modified Cooper-Harper) -mittareilla. Tutkimuksessa selvitettiin mittareiden havaintoarvojen muutosta, sensitiivisyyttä ja yhdenmukaisuutta kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason muuttuessa. Tutkimuksen mittauksiin osallistui 35 Suomen ilmavoimien aktiivisessa palveluksessa olevaa F/A-18-monitoimihävittäjäohjaajaa. Koehenkilöiden lentotuntien keskiarvo F/A-18-monitoimihävittäjällä oli 598 tuntia ja keskihajonta 445 tuntia. Koehenkilöiden tehtävänä oli lentää F/A-18-virtuaalisimulaattorilla 11 ILS (Instrument Landing System) -mittarilähestymistä eri aloitusetäisyyksiltä kiitotien kynnyksestä. Kognitiivisesti kuormitta-van mittarilähestymistehtävän aikana kuormituksen tasoa nostettiin lisätehtävillä ja vähentä-mällä tehtäviin käytettävissä olevaa aikaa. Koehenkilöitä pyydettiin ponnistelemaan mahdollisimman paljon tehtävien suorittamisen aikana hyvän suoritustason ylläpitämiseksi. Tulosten perusteella mittareiden havaintoarvot muuttuivat kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason muuttuessa. Käytettävissä olevan ajan vaikutus kognitiivisen kuormituksen tasoon oli tilastollisesti erittäin merkitsevä. Mittarit olivat sensitiivisiä kognitiivisen kuormituksen tason muutokselle ja antoivat yhdenmukaisia havaintoarvoja.

Kotkan kaupungin ja lähialueen sähkönjakeluverkon kehittämissuunnitelma

Kotkan jakelualueella käytetään historiallisista syistä keskijänniteverkossa kahta jänniteta-soa, 10 kV ja 20 kV. Eri jännitetasojen lisäksi Kotkan jakelualueen 110/20 päämuuntajien kytkentäryhmänä on käytössä YNyn0, kun taas muualla verkossa käytetään YNd11 kyt-kentäryhmää. Jännitetasoista ja kytkentäryhmistä johtuen Kotkan jakeluverkon yhteenkyt-kettävyys ympäröivän verkon kanssa on haastavaa. Työn tavoitteena on selvittää Kotkan kaupungin keskijänniteverkon nykytila ja käytettä-vyys häiriötilanteissa pahimpana mahdollisena aikana, sekä löytää mahdolliset ongelma-kohdat. Verkon nykytila tarkasteltiin verkkotietojärjestelmän avulla käyttäen laskennallisia tuloksia, jotka skaalattiin vastaamaan kovemman pakkastalven kuormitusta. Skaalaus teh-tiin useamman vuoden takaiseen tilanteeseen, jolloin yleinen taloustilanne oli parempi ja verkon kuormitus suurempi, jolloin verkko ei tule alimitoitetuksi taloustilanteen parantuessa. Tulevaisuuden varalta muodostettiin alueen tulevaisuuden kuormitusennusteet käyttämällä historiatietoja sekä tulevaisuuden näkymiä apuna. Työn keskeisimmäksi sisällöksi muodostui selvittää tarve usean käyttöjännitteen säilyttä-miselle sekä erilaisten kytkentäryhmien ylläpitämiseen ja kosketusjänniteongelman ratkai-seminen. Alueen sähköverkon kehittämiseksi tehtiin useita eri vaihtoehtoja, joita vertailtiin elinkaarikustannusperiaatteella toisiinsa. Vertailun pohjalta saatiin investointistrategia ehdo-tukset, joiden pohjalta verkkoyhtiö voi tehdä tulevaisuuteen sijoittuvia ratkaisuja.

A Project Portfolio Tool for Forecasting Small Projects Profitability

The case company in this study is a large industrial engineering company whose business is largely based on delivering a wide-range of engineering projects. The aim of this study is to create and develop a fairly simple Excel-based tool for the sales department. The tool’s main function is to estimate and visualize the profitability of various small projects. The study also aims to find out other possible and more long-term solutions for tackling the problem in the future. The study is highly constructive and descriptive as it focuses on the development task and in the creation of a new operating model. The developed tool focuses on estimating the profitability of the small orders of the selected project portfolio currently on the bidding-phase (prospects) and will help the case company in the monthly reporting of sales figures. The tool will analyse the profitability of a certain project by calculating its fixed and variable costs, then further the gross margin and operating profit. The bidding phase of small project is a phase that has not been covered fully by the existing tools within the case company. The project portfolio tool can be taken into use immediately within the case company and it will provide fairly accurate estimate of the profitability figures of the recently sold small projects.

Heat Demand Forecasting Models’ Development: Use of Data Mining Tools in SQL Server Analysis Services

This thesis introduces heat demand forecasting models which are generated by using data mining algorithms. The forecast spans one full day and this forecast can be used in regulating heat consumption of buildings. For training the data mining models, two years of heat consumption data from a case building and weather measurement data from Finnish Meteorological Institute are used. The thesis utilizes Microsoft SQL Server Analysis Services data mining tools in generating the data mining models and CRISP-DM process framework to implement the research. Results show that the built models can predict heat demand at best with mean average percentage errors of 3.8% for 24-h profile and 5.9% for full day. A deployment model for integrating the generated data mining models into an existing building energy management system is also discussed.

Electrical Safety of Island Operated Low Voltage DC Network

Today, renewable energy technologies and modern power electronics have made it feasible to implement low voltage direct current (LVDC) microgrids (MGs) ca-pable to island operation. Such LVDC networks are particularly useful in remote areas. However, there are still pending issues in island operated LVDC MGs like electrical safety and controlled operation, which should be addressed before wide-scale implementation. This thesis is focused on the overall protection of an island operated LVDC network concept, including protection against electrical shocks, mains equipment protection and protection of photovoltaic (PV) power sources and battery energy storage systems (BESSs). The topic is approached through ex-amination of the safety hazards and the appropriate methods to protect against them, comprising considerations for earthing system selection and realisation of the protection system.