A comparison of electricity spot prices simulation using ARMA-GARCH and mean-reverting models

The aim of this work is to compare two families of mathematical models for their respective capability to capture the statistical properties of real electricity spot market time series. The first model family is ARMA-GARCH models and the second model family is mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models. These two models have been applied to two price series of Nordic Nord Pool spot market for electricity namely to the System prices and to the DenmarkW prices. The parameters of both models were calibrated from the real time series. After carrying out simulation with optimal models from both families we conclude that neither ARMA-GARCH models, nor conventional mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck models, even when calibrated optimally with real electricity spot market price or return series, capture the statistical characteristics of the real series. But in the case of less spiky behavior (System prices), the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model could be seen to partially succeeded in this task.

Country Risk and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements: Evidence from Finnish Stock Markets

The objective of this thesis is to examine the market reaction around earnings announcements in Finnish stock markets. The aim is to find out whether the extreme market conditions during the financial crisis are reflected in stock prices as a stronger reaction. In addition to this, the purpose is to investigate how extensively Finnish listed companies report the country segmentation of revenues in their interim reports and whether the country risk is having a significant impact on perceived market reaction. The sample covers all companies listed in Helsinki stock exchange at 1.1.2010 and these companies’ interim reports from the first quarter of 2008 to last quarter of 2009. Final sample consists of 81 companies and 630 firm-quarter observations. The data sample has been divided in two parts, of which country risk sample contains 17 companies and 127 observations and comparison sample covers 66 companies and 503 observations. Research methodologies applied in this thesis are event study and cross-sectional regression analysis. Empirical results indicate that the market reaction occurs mainly during the announcement day and is slightly stronger in case of positive earnings surprises than the reactions observed in previous studies. In case of negative earnings surprises no significant differences can be observed. In case of country risk sample and negative earnings surprise market reaction is negative already in advance of the disclosure contrary to comparison sample. In case of positive surprise no differences can be observed. Country risk variable developed during this study seems to explain only minor part of the market reaction.

Stress testing and risk evaluation of new capacity payment algorithm proposed by Market Council

In the Russian Wholesale Market, electricity and capacity are traded separately. Capacity is a special good, the sale of which obliges suppliers to keep their generating equipment ready to produce the quantity of electricity indicated by the System Operator. The purpose of the formation of capacity trading was the maintenance of reliable and uninterrupted delivery of electricity in the wholesale market. The price of capacity reflects constant investments in construction, modernization and maintenance of power plants. So, the capacity sale creates favorable conditions to attract investments in the energy sector because it guarantees the investor that his investments will be returned.

Christina Rossetti's "Goblin market" : Milton revised or revived?

The present study examines Christina Rossetti's (1830-94) best-known poem "Goblin Market" (1859) as a response to John Milton's (1608-74) Paradise Lost (1667) and Paradise Regained (1674). Rossetti's poem relates to Milton's twin epics with a surprising degree of complexity, something that the thesis demonstrates through a large number of hitherto unexplored textual parallels. In its recontextualisation of Rossetti's poetry, this study balances interpretative strategies evolved by feminism with more historicist readings. SinceGilbert and Gubar's landmark feminist work of 1979, it has become something of a critical commonplace that Milton was a figure of patriarchal oppression whom women writers have challenged through revision. As a consequence, intertextual Rossetti studies have tended to emphasise such a revisionist element in her achievement. But if we place "Goblin Market" within the larger context of Rossetti's thoughts on religion and poetry throughout her writing, and if we de-emphasise the dichotomy between Rossetti and her male precursor, alternative patterns of reading begin to emerge. This thesis argues that Rossetti's aim was not only to revise Milton but also to revive him. It develops this point in several ways: first, by introducing the subject and theoretically arguing that literary allusiveness is not necessarily a matter of oedipal or feminist envy only (Chapter One); second, by determining the nature and extent of Rossetti's Miltonic allusions in terms of theme, imagery and language (Chapter Two);and third, by examining their function in terms of argument (Chapters Three andFour). I n an age of increasing religious doubt, Rossetti's poetry provided a subtle challenge not so much to Milton as to the emerging scepticism and aestheticism in Victorian society and its art-world, and not least to the secular tendencies of the second generation of Pre-Raphaelites, including Dante Gabriel Rossetti. Christina Rossetti was ahead of her time (and perhaps ours) in seeing the feminist potential in both John Milton and the Christian message. In the soul's relation to Christ, gender does not matter. What matters is the individual's quest for salvation, a quest in which poetry is a sacramental act, with a transformative, unifying function. Rossetti's poems both depict and constitute such a quest for union with God, on the assumption that God's word offers a pathway that is open to men as well as women.

Testing Futures Market Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation: Evidence from Futures and Options on RTS

This study investigates futures market efficiency and optimal hedge ratio estimation. First, cointegration between spot and futures prices is studied using Johansen method, with two different model specifications. If prices are found cointegrated, restrictions on cointegrating vector and adjustment coefficients are imposed, to account for unbiasedness, weak exogeneity and prediction hypothesis. Second, optimal hedge ratios are estimated using static OLS, and time-varying DVEC and CCC models. In-sample and out-of-sample results for one, two and five period ahead are reported. The futures used in thesis are RTS index, EUR/RUB exchange rate and Brent oil, traded in Futures and options on RTS.(FORTS) For in-sample period, data points were acquired from start of trading of each futures contract, RTS index from August 2005, EUR/RUB exchange rate March 2009 and Brent oil October 2008, lasting till end of May 2011. Out-of-sample period covers start of June 2011, till end of December 2011. Our results indicate that all three asset pairs, spot and futures, are cointegrated. We found RTS index futures to be unbiased predictor of spot price, mixed evidence for exchange rate, and for Brent oil futures unbiasedness was not supported. Weak exogeneity results for all pairs indicated spot price to lead in price discovery process. Prediction hypothesis, unbiasedness and weak exogeneity of futures, was rejected for all asset pairs. Variance reduction results varied between assets, in-sample in range of 40-85 percent and out-of sample in range of 40-96 percent. Differences between models were found small, except for Brent oil in which OLS clearly dominated. Out-of-sample results indicated exceptionally high variance reduction for RTS index, approximately 95 percent.

Paperitehtaan sähkötasehallinta ja sähkön kysyntäjousto energiakustannusten hallinnassa

Paperiteollisuus on energiaintensiivistä teollisuutta, jossa on tehty pitkään työtä tuotantoprosessien energiatehokkuuden parantamiseksi. Paperitehtaan energiakustannuksiin voidaan kuitenkin vaikuttaa myös sähkötaseen hallinnalla ja sähkön kysyntäjouston avulla. Tehtaan seuraavan vuorokauden sähkön kulutus pyritään ennustamaan mahdollisimman tarkasti, mutta esimerkiksi paperitehtaan häiriötilanteissa sähkötase poikkeaa ennustetusta. Tällöin sähkötasetta voidaan korjata ensisijaisesti sähkön jälkimarkkinoiden eli Elbas- kaupankäynnin avulla. Ellei tasetta saada korjattua sähkön jälkimarkkinoilla tase-ero korjataan tasesähköllä, jonka hinta muodostuu säätösähkömarkkinoilla. Tasesähkön hinta saattaa poiketa Elspot- markkinahinnasta voimakkaasti, jolloin tase-erosta joko hyödytään tai hävitään kustannusmielessä. Tämän työn tarkoituksena on selvittää sähkötasehallinnan parantamisen ja sähkön kysyntäjouston vaikutukset paperitehtaan energiakustannuksiin. Työssä tutkittiin tehtaan sähkö-tasehallinnan nykytilannetta ja selvitettiin tase-erojen kustannusvaikuttavuutta. Lisäksi työssä luotiin ajomalleja sähkön kysyntäjouston toteuttamiselle massatehtaan eri tuotantoprosesseille, sekä määritettiin rajahintoja seuraavan vuorokauden energiaennusteeseen. Onnistunut energiaennuste perustuu paperitehtaan käynnin tarkkoihin ja ajankohtaisiin lähtötietoihin. Sähkötaseen poikkeamiin voidaan puolestaan varautua paremmin, kun informaatio tehtaan prosessien alasajosta tulee voimalaitoksen tietoon mahdollisimman aikaisin. Sähkötaseen poikkeamien hallinta voidaan tehdä, joko Elbas- kaupan tai tasesähkön avulla. Ajankohdasta ja tasepoikkeaman volyymista riippuen täytyy tehdä valinta, kumpi vaihtoehdoista on kustannusmielessä kannattavampi. Paperitehtaan eri prosesseille luoduilla ajomalleilla saatiin esiin huomattava säästöpotentiaali. Ajomallien noudattaminen vaatii suunnitelmallista tuotannon hallintaa ja sähkön Elspot- hinnan käyttäytymisen säännöllistä seurantaa. Seuraavan vuorokauden rajahintatietojen määrittämisen pohjalta voidaan arvioida, millä Elspot- hinnalla sähkön myynti muuttuu paperin tuotantoa kannattavammaksi.

The Effect of Plant Closures on Market Value: Empirical Evidence from Pulp and Paper Industry 2004-2012

The aim of this study was to research how plant closure announcements affect the market value of the largest pulp and paper industry companies in the world. Also the effect of announcements on competitors was researched and whether the location of plants, timing, reasons for the closures, and characteristics of the closing firms and competitors have an impact on the results. The overall sample included 57 events in the years 2004-2012 and event study was used as a research method. Main theories were signaling theory and spillover effect. According to empirical results, investors consider plant closure announcements as a positive signal for market value. The spillover effect on competitors was, on average, positive and characteristics of the firms and closures had an effect on the results. Furthermore, the market generally predicted the closures and overreacted to them on the announcement day and after it. It is possible for corporate management and investors to learn from the results and use them as support for their decision making.