Development of power flows around Baltic countries with new grid links

In the Thesis main focus is done on power flow development paths around the Baltic States as well as on market-based requirements for creation of the common Baltic electricity market. Current market regulations between the countries are presented; barriers for creating competitive common Baltic power market and for electricity trading with third countries are clarified; solutions are offered and corresponding road map is developed. Future power development paths around the Baltic States are analysed. For this purpose the 330 kV transmission grid of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is modelled in a power flow tool. Power flow calculations are carried out for winter and summer peak and off-peak load periods in 2020 with different combinations of interconnections. While carrying out power balance experiments several power flow patterns in the Baltic States are revealed. Conclusions are made about security of supply, grid congestion and transmission capacity availability for different scenarios.

Governmental Measures to Enhance the Finnish Innovation System to Respond to the Challenge of Mitigating Climate Change

Climate innovations, that cover both technological applications and process and service innovations, play a key role in climate change mitigation. The purpose of this study was to examine how the Finnish innovation system could be enhanced with governmental measures so that the diffusion of climate innovations could be speeded up. During the study, it became evident that the governmental measures need to support the whole innovation chain, which comprises of research, development, demonstration and deployment. Only this can lead to the successful birth and diffusion of low carbon innovations. The study found that the strengths of the Finnish innovation system are research and development, and the current national innovation policies strongly support these activities. However, these have been emphasised at the expense of the demonstration and deployment. Consequently, the biggest bottlenecks in the Finnish innovation landscape are the lack of pilot and demonstration projects and slow commercialisation, thus the high price of the innovation. To meet with the challenge, the government should firstly promote strict greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. This would boost up the innovation activities, which would also lower the prices of the innovations. To speed up the commercialisation process, measures that stimulate the domestic market, such as feed-in-tariffs and public procurements, are needed. Special attention should also be paid to the measures that could shift the traditional closed innovation chain towards open innovation. This means that the product development should involve experts from several fields such as the user and marketing experts to speed up the commercialisation. In addition, efficient innovation co-operation between both private and public sector is essential. Finally, as the domestic resources are not adequate for producing all the innovations needed, the domestic innovation activities should be focused on a few sectors, and at the same time promote efficient import policies.

Managing regulatory risks when outsourcing network-related services in the electricity distribution sector

Deregulation of the electricity sector liberated the electricity sale and production for competitive forces while in the network business, electricity transmission and distribution, natural monopoly positions were recognised. Deregulation was accompanied by efficiencyoriented thinking on the whole electricity supply industry. For electricity distribution this meant a transition from a public service towards profit-driven business guided by economic regulation. Regulation is the primary means to enforce societal and other goals in the regulated monopoly sector. The design of economic regulation is concerned with two main attributes; end-customer price and quality of electricity distribution services. Regulation limits the costs of the regulated company but also defines the desired quality of monopoly services. The characteristics of the regulatory framework and the incentives it provides are therefore decisive for the electricity distribution sector. Regulation is not a static factor; changes in the regulatory practices cause discontinuity points, which in turn generate risks. A variety of social and environmental concerns together with technological advancements have emphasised the relevance of quality regulation, which is expected to lead to the large-scale replacement of overhead lines with underground cables. The electricity network construction activity is therefore currently witnessing revolutionary changes in its competitive landscape. In a business characterised by high statutory involvement and a high level of sunk costs, recognising and understanding the regulatory risks becomes a key success factor. As a response, electricity distribution companies have turned into outsourcing to attain efficiency and quality goals. This doctoral thesis addresses the impacts of regulatory risks on electricity network construction, which is a commonly outsourced activity in the electricity distribution network sector. The chosen research approach is characterised as an action analytical research on account of the fact that regulatory risks are greatly dependent on the individual nature of the regulatory regime applied in the electricity distribution sector. The main contribution of this doctoral thesis is to develop a concept for recognising and managing the business risks stemming from economic regulation. The degree of outsourcing in the sector is expected to increase in years to come. The results of the research provide new knowledge to manage the regulatory risks when outsourcing services.

Technological and business challenges of smart grids

Growing recognition of the electricity grid modernization to enable new electricity generation and consumption schemes has found articulation in the vision of the Smart Grid platform. The essence of this vision is an autonomous network with two-way electricity power flows and extensive real-time information between the generation nodes, various electricity-dependent appliances and all points in-between. Three major components of the Smart Grids are distributed intelligence, communication technologies, and automated control systems. The aim of this thesis is to recognize the challenges that Smart Grids are facing, while extinguishing the main driving factors for their introduction. The scope of the thesis also covers possible place of electricity Aggregator Company in the current and future electricity markets. Basic functions of an aggregator and possible revenue sources along with demand response feasibility calculations are reviewed within this thesis.

The Effect of Plant Closures on Market Value: Empirical Evidence from Pulp and Paper Industry 2004-2012

The aim of this study was to research how plant closure announcements affect the market value of the largest pulp and paper industry companies in the world. Also the effect of announcements on competitors was researched and whether the location of plants, timing, reasons for the closures, and characteristics of the closing firms and competitors have an impact on the results. The overall sample included 57 events in the years 2004-2012 and event study was used as a research method. Main theories were signaling theory and spillover effect. According to empirical results, investors consider plant closure announcements as a positive signal for market value. The spillover effect on competitors was, on average, positive and characteristics of the firms and closures had an effect on the results. Furthermore, the market generally predicted the closures and overreacted to them on the announcement day and after it. It is possible for corporate management and investors to learn from the results and use them as support for their decision making.

Assessment of techno-economic use cases for small-scale island grids

The main objective of the study was to define the methodology for assessing the limits for application island grids instead of interconnecting with existing grid infrastructure. The model for simulation of grid extension distance and levelised cost of electricity has been developed and validated by the case study in Finland. Thereafter, sensitivities of the application limits were examined with the respect to operational environment, load conditions, supply security and geographical location. Finally, recommendations for the small-scale rural electrification projects in the market economy environment have been proposed.

Hydrologisen tilanteen ja tuulivoimatuotannon muutosten vaikutus vesiarvoihin pohjoismaisilla sähkön spot-markkinoilla

Vesivoimalla on merkittävä rooli pohjoismaisessa sähköntuotantojärjestelmässä. Spot-markkinoille tarjottavan vesivoiman hinta riippuu vaihtoehtoisen tuotannon hinnasta ja odotetusta vesivoimantuottajien käytettävissä olevasta veteen sitoutuneen potentiaalienergian määrästä. Hydrologisella tilanteella tarkoitetaan tässä tämän potentiaalienergian poikkeamaa normaalitasostaan. Viime vuosina tuulivoimatuotanto pohjoismaisella sähkömarkkina-alueella on kasvanut voimakkaasti, ja on tullut aiheelliseksi tarkastella, millaisia vaikutuksia tällä on vesivoimantuottajien toimintaan. Työssä määritellään vesivoimalle vaihtoehtoisen sähköntuotannon tuotantokustannus, joka pitkällä aikavälillä toimii vertailutasona, jonka perusteella vesivoimantuottajat määrittävät markkinoilla tarjontahinnan tuotannolleen. Tarkastellaan, kuinka hydrologisen tilanteen ja vaihtoehtoisen tuotannon tuotantokustannusten muutokset vaikuttavat vesiarvoon, joka on hinta, jolla hintariippuvaista eli säätyvää vesivoimaa tarjotaan spot-markkinoille. Todetaan, että hydrologisen tilanteen vahvistuminen ja vaihtoehtoisen tuotantokustannuksen aleneminen alentavat vesiarvoja. Todetaan lisäksi, että tuulivoima vaikuttaa sähkön hinnanmuodostukseen markkinoilla samankaltaisesti kuin hintariippumaton vesivoimatuotanto. Esitetään aikasarjamalli vesivoimatuotannon hintariippuvuuden mallintamiseksi. Vertaillaan vesivoimatuottajien toimintaa kahdella vesivoimatuotantoa sisältävällä hinta-alueella, joista toisella tuulivoimatuotanto on kasvanut voimakkaammin kuin toisella. Havaitaan, että molemmilla hinta-alueilla hydrologisen tilanteen vahvistuminen on alentanut ja heikkeneminen nostanut vesiarvoja. Lisäksi havaitaan, että alueella, jonka tuulivoimatuotanto on kasvanut enemmän, vesiarvot ovat laskeneet suhteessa alueen, jolla tuulivoimatuotanto on kasvanut vähemmän, vesiarvoihin. Tuulivoiman voidaan todeta syrjäyttäneen markkinoilta tuotantokustannuksiltaan kalliimpaa tuotantoa.

Modelling of changes in electricity end-use and their impacts on electricity distribution

The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

Distributed energy resources in an electricity retailer’s short-term profit optimization

Liberalization of electricity markets has resulted in a competed Nordic electricity market, in which electricity retailers play a key role as electricity suppliers, market intermediaries, and service providers. Although these roles may remain unchanged in the near future, the retailers’ operation may change fundamentally as a result of the emerging smart grid environment. Especially the increasing amount of distributed energy resources (DER), and improving opportunities for their control, are reshaping the operating environment of the retailers. This requires that the retailers’ operation models are developed to match the operating environment, in which the active use of DER plays a major role. Electricity retailers have a clientele, and they operate actively in the electricity markets, which makes them a natural market party to offer new services for end-users aiming at an efficient and market-based use of DER. From the retailer’s point of view, the active use of DER can provide means to adapt the operation to meet the challenges posed by the smart grid environment, and to pursue the ultimate objective of the retailer, which is to maximize the profit of operation. This doctoral dissertation introduces a methodology for the comprehensive use of DER in an electricity retailer’s short-term profit optimization that covers operation in a variety of marketplaces including day-ahead, intra-day, and reserve markets. The analysis results provide data of the key profit-making opportunities and the risks associated with different types of DER use. Therefore, the methodology may serve as an efficient tool for an experienced operator in the planning of the optimal market-based DER use. The key contributions of this doctoral dissertation lie in the analysis and development of the model that allows the retailer to benefit from profit-making opportunities brought by the use of DER in different marketplaces, but also to manage the major risks involved in the active use of DER. In addition, the dissertation introduces an analysis of the economic potential of DER control actions in different marketplaces including the day-ahead Elspot market, balancing power market, and the hourly market of Frequency Containment Reserve for Disturbances (FCR-D).

Acquisition Failure: The case of a multinational enterprise from an emerging market failing in Indonesia.

The escalation in the number of mergers and acquisition transactions involving emerging market firms is a relatively recent phenomenon; as a consequence academic research in such topic is rather limited. The purpose of this research study was to discuss the possible reasons that led the acquisition failure of an emerging multinational firm and an Indonesian player. Extensive theoretical research was performed and it had been achieved, based on this, the finding of a framework that facilitated to understand the way in which the concepts of cultural distances and relate liabilities of foreignness in the process of acquisitions of foreign companies in emerging markets. The theoretical background collects literature related to acquisitions, models of cultural studies between nations and liabilities of foreignness. It has been generated a variety of frameworks that aid to understand the way that the institutional distance and cultural factors together with the concept of liabilities of foreignness can affect the process of market entry of an emerging multinational company to the extent that the best way to stop losing money is to abandon the project. The empirical research consisted of selective semi-structured interviews and an extensive research in available public data on the chosen study case of this research. There were several factors that were identified as the cause of the failure in the market entry of a Mexican multinational firm in Indonesia. The weakness shown by the local government authorities was used by the local community leaders who rioted because of discomfort. These groups were the ones who made the government submit to the extent that the agreements reached at the beginning of the deal were either canceled or modified in a way that favored always the local community. The contributions of this study fall into the knowledge field of emerging multinational firms and market entry process.

Solutions to water problems in the bottom of the pyramid market

Solving the water crisis in the developing world is a critical issue. Four billion people in the globe, so called the Base of the Pyramid (BoP) population suffer from inadequate access to safe drinking water, while millions die daily from waterborne diseases and lack of clean water. The BoP people desperately need to obtain a satisfactory access to safe water sources. In order to address the issue, this research has been carried out. To provide holistic consideration to the matter, comprehensive exploration of various causes of the water crisis and its impacts in developing countries were discussed. Then, various viable and relevant solutions to the problem have been thoroughly scrutinized, including scientific, rational, practical and speculative approaches, examination of existing methods, technologies and products at the BoP water market. The role of clean water to the sustainable development was specifically featured. The paper also has studied social and economic factors, actors and circumstances which affect the market development of clean water technologies in the BoP. Possibilities and potentials of successful business between foreign water enterprises and BoP consumers were considered, while primary obstacles are deliberated on, with suggestion of the ways to tackle them. Technologies and products which are needed by the poor must be affordable, sustainable and of an appropriate quality. The crucial question of technology transfer was soundly discussed with pointing out main hindrances on the way of its implementation between the developed and developing world. The means to overcome these barriers were properly observed as well. To explore to some extent the possibility and feasibility of technology transfer from Finland to the BoP sector, 3 case study analyses have been implemented. Personal discussions in form of interviews were conducted at Kemira, Outotec and Fenno Water, Finnish water treatment and supply enterprises. The results of the interviews shed light on the specific practical matters, actual obstacles and potential solutions of the technology transfer from Finland to low-income countries.

Vesivoiman ajosuunnittelu

Diplomityön tavoitteena oli tutkia UPM-Kymmene Oyj:n keskusvalvomossa tapahtuvaa vesivoiman ajosuunnittelua. Pääkohdat tarkastelussa olivat vesistöjen säännöstely, erilaiset vesivuodet ja sähkömarkkinatilanteet. Vesivoiman ajosuunnittelua tarkasteltiin pääasiassa erilaisten vesivuosien ja sähkömarkkinatilanteiden näkökulmasta. Lähtötietoina käytettiin Suomen ympäristökeskuksen vesistömallijärjestelmän ja UPM-Kymmene Oyj:n energianhallintajärjestelmän numeerisia historia-arvoja. Työssäselvitettiin UPM-Kymmene Oyj:n vesivarannoista hyödynnettävissä olevat energiamäärät. Energiamäärien avulla määritettiin skenaario UPM-Kymmene Oyj:n vesivoimantuotannon vaihtelusta. Lisäksi tarkasteltiin vesivoimaa sähkötaseen säätövoimana. Teoreettisessa osassa perehdyttiin Suomen sähköntuotantorakenteeseen, vesivoiman asemaan sähköntuotannossa ja vesivoiman ohjausmekanismeihin. Lisäksi tarkasteltiin UPM-Kymmene Oyj:n sähkön käyttöä ja vesivarantoja. Soveltavassa osassa tarkasteltiin, miten vesivoiman ohjausmekanismit toimivat käytännössä. Lisäksi analysoitiin sähkömarkkinatilanteiden vaikutuksia ja vesivoimalaitosten ajon tehostamismahdollisuuksia. Työn tuloksena laadittiin ennuste-simulaattori, jolla voidaan optimoida vesivoimanja lauhdevoiman ajoa. Tulevaisuudessa simulaattorin avulla voidaan ennustaa poikkeuksellisia sähkömarkkinatilanteita.

1000 V distribution system and its potential in Russia

The application of the three voltage level 20/1/0.4 distribution system in Finland has proved to be an economic solution to enhance the reability of electricity distribution. By using 1 kV voltage level between medium and low voltage networks, the improvement in reability could be reached especially inaerial lines networks. Also considerable savings in investment and outage costscould be archieved compared to the traditional distribution system. This master's thesis is focused on the describing the situation in Russian distribution netwoks and consequent analyses the possibility of applying 1000V distribution system in Russia. The goal is to investigate on the basis of Finnish experience is any possible installation targets in Russia for the new system. Compatibility with Russian safety and quality standards are also studied in this thesis.

Arvonmääritysmallin kehittäminen sijoittajan näkökulmasta: Case F-secure

Työn tavoitteena on kehittää Microsoft Excel -taulukkolaskentaohjelmaan pohjautuva arvonmääritysmalli. Mallin avulla osaketutkimusta tekevät analyytikot ja sijoittajat voivat määrittää osakkeen fundamenttiarvon. Malli kehitetään erityisesti piensijoittajien työkaluksi. Työn toisena tavoitteena on soveltaa kehitettyä arvonmääritysmallia case-yrityksenä toimivan F-Securen arvonmäärityksessä ja selvittää mallin avulla onko F-Securen osake pörssissä fundamentteihin nähden oikein hinnoiteltu. Työn teoriaosassa esitellään arvonmäärityksen käyttökohteet ja historia, arvonmääritysprosessin vaiheet (strateginen analyysi, tilinpäätösanalyysi, tulevaisuuden ennakointi, yrityksen arvon laskeminen), pääoman kustannuksen määrittäminen ja sijoittajan eri arvonmääritysmenetelmät, joita ovat diskontattuun kassavirtaan perustuvassa arvonmäärityksessä käytettävät mallit sekä suhteellisen arvonmäärityksentunnusluvut. Empiirinen osa käsittää arvonmääritysmallin kehittämisen ja rakenteen kuvauksen sekä F-Securen arvonmääritysprosessin. Vaikka F-Securen tulevaisuus näyttää varsin valoisalta, osake on hinnoiteltu markkinoilla tällä hetkellä(23.02.2006) korkeammalle kuin näihin odotuksiin nähden olisi järkevää. Eri menetelmät antavat osakkeelle arvoja 2,25 euron ja 2,97 euron väliltä. Kehitetty Excel -malli määrittää F-Securen osakkeen tavoitehinnaksi eri menetelmien mediaanina 2,29 euroa. Tutkimuksen tuloksena F-Securen osaketta voidaan pitää yliarvostettuna, sillä sen hinta pörssissä on 3,05 euroa.

Optiojärjestelyt HelsinginPörssin pankit- ja rahoitustoimialalistan yrityksissä 1996-2004

Tiivistelmä Tekijä: Veikko Huhta Nimi: Optiojärjestelyt Helsingin Pörssin pankit- ja rahoitustoimialalistan yrityksissä 1996-2004 Osasto: Kauppatieteiden osasto Vuosi: 2005 Pro gradu-tutkielma. Lappeenrannan Teknillinen Yliopisto. 84 sivua, 8 kuviota, 1 taulukko, 5 liitettä. Tarkastajina professori Jaana Sandström ja professori Ulla Kotonen Hakusanat: Optiojärjestelyt, omistajalähtöinen johtaminen, agenttiongelma, pankit- ja rahoitustoimiala Tutkielman tavoitteena oli selvittää, millaisia optiojärjestelyjä HelsinginPörssin pankit- ja rahoitustoimialan yrityksissä on käytössä. Optiojärjestelyjätutkittiin ensinnä tarkastelemalla niiden omistajille aiheuttamaa diluutiovaikutusta. Seuraavaksi tarkastelun kohteena olivat option merkintähinta, optiojärjestelyn voimassaoloaika sekä osinkokorjaus. Optiojärjestelyjen toimivuutta tutkittiin tunnuslukujen ja yrityksen markkina-arvon näkökulmasta. Optiojärjestelyn taustalla olevia tavoitteita tutkittiin omistusrakenteen näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksen kohteena olevat yritykset olivat Sampo Oyj, OKO Oyj, CapMan Oyj sekä Ålandsbanken Ab. Pankit- ja rahoitustoimiala ei ole ns. suurten tuotto-odotusten toimiala. Tasainen osingonjako on optiojärjestelyjen ehtojen valossa omistajille tärkeää. Toimialalla optiojärjestelyjen ensisijainen tehtävä näyttää olevan sitouttaa avainhenkilöitä yritykseen. Vain yhdessä yrityksessä omistajat voivat olla markkina-arvon kehitykseen tyytyväisiä. Omistuksen ja johdon yhdistyminen johtaa optiojärjestelyillä tavoiteltavaan suureen sitouttamisvaikutukseen. Omistusrakenne osoittautui suureksi selittäjäksi optiojärjestelyjen ehtoja asetettaessa.