Analysis of Earnings, Stock Prices and Bond Yields: The Fed Model Approach

Prediction of the stock market valuation is a common interest to all market participants. Theoretically sound market valuation can be achieved by discounting future earnings of equities to present. Competing valuation models seek to find variables that affect the equity market valuation in a way that the market valuation can be explained and also variables that could be used to predict market valuation. In this paper we test the contemporaneous relationship between stock prices, forward looking earnings and long-term government bond yields. We test this so-called Fed model in a long- and short-term time series analysis. In order to test the dynamics of the relationship, we use the cointegration framework. The data used in this study spans over four decades of various market conditions between 1964-2007, using data from United States. The empirical results of our analysis do not give support for the Fed model. We are able to show that the long-term government bonds do not play statistically significant role in this relationship. The effect of forward earnings yield on the stock market prices is significant and thus we suggest the use of standard valuation ratios when trying to predict the future paths of equity prices. Also, changes in the long-term government bond yields do not have significant short-term impact on stock prices.

Time-varying Risk Premiums and Conditional Market Risk: Empirical Evidence from European Stock Markets

This study investigates the relationship between the time-varying risk premiums and conditional market risk in the stock markets of the ten member countries of Economy and Monetary Union. Second, it examines whether the conditional second moments change over time and are there asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix. Third, it analyzes the possible effects of the chosen testing framework. Empirical analysis is conducted using asymmetric univariate and multivariate GARCH-in-mean models and assuming three different degrees of market integration. For a daily sample period from 1999 to 2007, the study shows that the time-varying market risk alone is not enough to explain the dynamics of risk premiums and indications are found that the market risk is detected only when its price is allowed to change over time. Also asymmetric effects in the conditional covariance matrix, which is found to be time-varying, are clearly present and should be recognized in empirical asset pricing analyses.

Modelling of North-West Russian market behavior considering technical restrictions of transmission grid

Nowadays the Finnish-Russian electric energy interaction is carried out through the back-to-back DC Vyborg substation and several power plants working synchronously with Finnish power system. Constant amount of energy flows in one direction — from Russia to Finland. But the process of electricity market development in Russian energy system makes the new possibilities of electrical cooperation available. The goal of master's thesis is to analyze the current state and possible evolution trends of North-West Russian system in relation with future possible change in power flow between Russia and Finland. The research is done by modelling the market of North-West Russia and examination of technical grid restrictions. The operational market models of North-West region of Russia for the years 2008 and 2015 were created during the research process. The description of prepared market models together with modelling results and their analysis are shown in the work. The description of power flow study process and results are also presented.

Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

The impact of bioavailability limitations on microbial stable isotope fractionation in a multiphase system

Stable isotope fractionation analysis of contaminants is a promising method for assessing biodegradation of contaminants in natural systems. However, standard procedures to determine stable isotope fractionation factors, so far, neglect the influence of pollutant bioavailability on stable isotope fractionation. On a microscale, bioavailability may vary due to the spatio-temporal variability of local contaminant concentrations, limited effective diffusivities of the contaminants and cell densities, and thus, the pollutant supply might not meet the intrinsic degradation capacity of the microorganisms. The aim of this study was to demonstrate the effect of bioavailability on the apparent stable isotope fractionation, using a multiphase laboratory setup. The data gained show that the apparent isotope fractionation factors observed during biodegradation processes depend on the amount of biomass and/or the rate of toluene mass transfer from a second to the aqueous phase. They indicate that physico-chemical processes need to be taken into account when stable isotope fractionation analysis is used for the quantification of environmental contaminant degradation.

Market Potential of Northwest Russia for Telemedicine Applications

The level of health care in Russia is mostly still below the western standards, but lately it has been developing quite positively. Many ICT solutions (telemedicine applications) have been developed for health care in Finland, but since the domestic market is so small, it’s necessary to expand to foreign markets to make the Finnish R&D projects more profitable. Telemedicine applications are not yet widely used in Russia, but since the health care system is going through fast changes, leapfrog effects can be expected and new modern applications and technologies will be implemented. This will open numerous business opportunities for Finnish technology developers. This thesis aims to be the first evaluation of the market and form an outlook of the health care system and telemedicine applications already utilized in Russia. The results of this study can be used for focusing further research ultimately aiming at technology implementation. The study showed that there is potential for many types of telemedicine solutions, e.g. electronic patient records and home monitoring systems; providing that further research in this field is needed.

Market Potential of Northwest Russia for Telemedicine Applications

The level of health care in Russia is mostly still below the western standards, but lately it has been developing quite positively. Many ICT solutions (telemedicine applications) have been developed for health care in Finland, but since the domestic market is so small, it’s necessary to expand to foreign markets to make the Finnish R&D projects more profitable. Telemedicine applications are not yet widely used in Russia, but since the health care system is going through fast changes, leapfrog effects can be expected and new modern applications and technologies will be implemented. This will open numerous business opportunities for Finnish technology developers. This thesis aims to be the first evaluation of the market and form an outlook of the health care system and telemedicine applications already utilized in Russia. The results of this study can be used for focusing further research ultimately aiming at technology implementation. The study showed that there is potential for many types of telemedicine solutions, e.g. electronic patient records and home monitoring systems; providing that further research in this field is needed.

Market Opportunities for Paper Industry in Radio Frequency Identification

The paper industry has been experiencing remarkable structural changes since paper demand growth has ceased and some markets are declining. One reason behind the declined demand is the Internet, which has partially substituted the newspaper as a source of information. Paper products alone can no longer provide livelihood, and the paper industry has to find new business areas. In this research, we studied radio frequency identification (RFID), and the market opportunities it could provide for paper industry. The research combined a quantitative industry analysis and qualitative interviews. RFID is a growing industry in the beginning of its life cycle, in which value chains and technologies still evolve significantly. The industry is going to concentrate on the future, and in the long term RFID-identifiers will probably be printed on paper substrate or directly onto products. Paper industry has the chance to enter the RFID industry, but it has to obtain the required competences, for example through acquisitions. The business potential RFID offers to paper industry is inadequate, and while reviewing new strategic options, the paper industry must consider more options, for example the entire printed intelligence.

The modular forming press for paperboard packages

In this master’s thesis the structural and functional features of a forming tool are developed to meet the needs of modern packaging production for paperboard packaging are studied. The goal of the study is to develop a new type of machine for the manufacture of the paperboard package by pressing. In the structure of the developed forming press the possibility to modify the packaging as well as the requirements of industrial production, food hygiene and other operational matters are accounted for. The press has been sized based on the main dimensions of a single food-grade paperboard tray. In the LUT Packaging Laboratory the forming press is designed suitable for on-line operation. In addition, suggestions for further development of packaging line and equipment have been made based on the information gathered during this thesis study.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Haja-asutusalueiden sähkönjakelujärjestelmien kehittäminen – erityisesti 1000 V jakelujännitteen käyttömahdollisuudet

Yhteiskunnan riippuvuus sähköstä on lisääntynyt voimakkaasti viime vuosikymmenien aikana. Sähkönjakelussa esiintyneet lyhyet ja pitkät keskeytykset ovat osoittaneet yhteiskunnan haavoittuvuuden ja yhteiskunta kestää entistä vähemmän sähkönjakelussa tapahtuvia häiriöitä. Keskeytyksistä aiheutuneiden haittojen arvostus on kasvanut ja tämä on luonut taloudelliset perusteet sähkön laatua parantaville investoinneille. Haja-asutusalueiden keskijänniteverkon johdot on rakennettu avojohtoina ja siten ne ovat alttiita sääolosuhteista johtuville myrsky- ja lumikuormavaurioille. Ilmastomuutoksen ennustetaan lisäävän tuulisuutta ja siten ongelmat sähkönjakelussa mahdollisesti lisääntyvät. Taajamissa käytetään enemmän kaapeleita ja johtolähdöt ovat lyhyitä, joten myrskyistä aiheutuvia keskeytyksiä on vähemmän kuin haja-asutusalueella. Olemassa olevat jakeluverkot ovat käytössä vielä vuosikymmeniä, joten uuden tekniikan kehittämisen rinnalla on kehitettävä myös olemassa olevaa jakeluverkkoa ja sen ylläpitoa. Ylläpidon tavoitteena on käyttövarmuuden parantamisen lisäksi huolehtia siitä, että jakeluverkkoihin sitoutunut omaisuus säilyttää arvonsa mahdollisimman hyvin pitoajan loppuun saakka. Jakeluverkkoihin investoitiin paljon 1950–70-luvuilla. Tältä ajalta on yhä käytössä puupylväitä, joiden ikääntymisen takia korvausinvestointien tarve kasvaa. Hyvänä puolena tässä on että käyttövarmuuden parantamiseksi olemassa olevaa jakeluverkkoa ei tarvitse uusia ennenaikaisesti. Tutkimuksessa päähuomio on haja-asutusalueiden 20 kV keskijänniteverkon kehittämisessä, sillä yli 90 % asiakkaiden kokemista keskeytyksistä johtuu keskijänniteverkon vioista. Erityisesti johtorakenteisiin ja johtojen sijoittamiseen on kiinnitettävä huomiota. Käyttövarmuuden lisäksi jakeluverkkojen kehittämistä ohjaavia tekijöitä ovat taloudellisuus, ympäristön huomioiminen, viranomaisvalvonta sekä asiakkaiden ja omistajien odotukset. Haja-asutusalueilla taloudelliset haasteet ovat suuret vakituisen väestön vähenemisen ja mahdollisesti sähköntarpeen pienenemisen takia. Taloudellisuus korostuu ja riskit kasvavat, kun tuottojen määrä supistuu tarvittaviin jakeluverkon investointeihin ja ylläpitokustannuksiin verrattuna. Ristiriitaa aiheuttaa se, että asiakkaat odottavat sähkönjakelulta parempaa luotettavuutta, mutta paremmasta sähkönlaadusta ei olla valmiita maksamaan juurikaan nykyistä enempää. Jakeluverkkojen kehittämistä voi hidastaa myös viranomaisvalvonta, jos tuottoja ei voida lisätä investointien lisätarpeiden suhteessa. Tutkimuksessa on analysoitu yleisellä tasolla kaapeloinnin lisäämistä, korkeiden pylväiden käyttämistä, leveitä johtokatuja, edullisten ja yksinkertaisten sähköasemien rakentamista haja-asutusalueille ja automaatioasemien lisäämistä keskijänniteverkon solmupisteisiin. Erityisesti tutkimuksessa on analysoitu uutena tekniikkana 1000 V jännitteen käyttömahdollisuutta jakeluverkkojen kehittämisessä. Sähköjohtojen siirtäminen teiden varsiin parantaa käyttövarmuutta, vaikka johdot rakennetaan samalla tekniikalla kuin olemassa olevat johdot. Hajaasutusalueille rakennettavilla sähköasemilla pitkät syöttöjohdot voidaan jakaa pienemmiksi syöttöalueiksi, jolloin keskeytyksistä aiheutuvat haitat koskettavat kerrallaan pienempää asiakasmäärää. Samaan tulokseen päästään oikein sijoitetuilla ja toteutetuilla automaatioasemilla. Tutkimuksen mukaan lupaavaksi tekniikaksi jakeluverkkojen kehittämisessä on osoittautumassa 1000 V jänniteportaan ottaminen 400 V pienjännitteen lisäksi. 1000 V verkoilla voidaan korvata häiriöherkkiä 20 kV keskijänniteverkon lyhyitä, alle viiden kilometrin pituisia haarajohtoja ja haarajohtojen jatkeita, missä siirrettävät tehot ovat pieniä. Uudessa jakelujärjestelmässä sähkö tuodaan 1000 V jännitteellä lähelle asiakasta, jossa jännite muunnetaan normaaliksi asiakkaille soveltuvaksi 400/230 V jännitteeksi. Edullisuus perustuu siihen, että rakentamisessa käytetään samoja pienjännitejohtoja kuin asiakkaille menevässä 400 V pienjänniteverkossa. 1000 V jakelutekniikassa sekä investointikustannukset että ylläpitokustannukset ovat pienemmät kuin perinteisessä 20 kV ilmajohtotekniikassa. 1000 V johdot säästävät maisemaa, sillä ne eivät tarvitse leveää johtokatua kuten 20 kV keskijännitejohdot. 1000 V verkkojen käyttö soveltuukin erityisesti vapaa-ajanasuntojen sähköistykseen herkissä ranta- ja järvimaisemissa. 1000 V verkot mahdollistavat kaapeliauraamisen lisäämisen ja näin voidaan vähentää ympäristöä haittaavien kyllästettyjen pylväiden käyttöä. 1000 V jakeluverkkojen osalta tutkimustyön tuloksia on sovellettu suomalaisessa Suur-Savon Sähkö Oy:ssä. Käytännön kokemuksia 1000 V jakelujärjestelmästä on useista kymmenistä kohteista. Tutkimustulokset osoittavat, ettei keskijänniteverkon maakaapelointi hajaasutusalueilla ole taloudellisesti kannattavaa nykyisillä keskeytyksistä aiheutuvilla haitta-arvoilla, mutta jos keskeytyskustannusten arvostus kasvaa, tulee kaapelointi kannattavaksi monissa paikoissa. Myös myrskyisyyden ja myrskyistä aiheutuvien jakelukeskeytysten lisääntyminen tekisi kaapeloinnista kannattavan. Tulevaisuudessa jakeluverkkojen rakentaminen on entistä monimuotoisempi tehtävä, jossa taloudellisuuden ja käyttövarmuuden lisäksi on huomioitava asiakkaat, omistajat, viranomaiset ja ympäristö. Tutkimusta jakelutekniikan kehittämiseksi tarvitaan edelleen. Tulevaisuuden osalta haja-asutusalueiden jakeluverkkojen kehittämiseen liittyy paljon epävarmuuksia. Hajautetun kiinteistökohtaisen sähköntuotannon lisääntyminen voi tehdä jakeluverkoista nykyistä tarpeettomampia, mutta esimerkiksi liikenteen sähköistyminen voi kasvattaa jakeluverkkojen merkitystä. Tästä syystä jakeluverkkojen rakentamisessa tarvitaan joustavuutta, jotta tarvittaessa voidaan helposti sopeutua erilaisiin kehityssuuntiin.

The Current Situation of Sewage Sludge and Manure Treatment in Livestock Enterprises in the Leningrad Region

The problem concerning livestock waste handling in the Leningrad region has been subjected to a number of research works. However, the requirements for use of manure and sewage sludge as well as for treatment processes are not certain. So, this problem remains relevant and, therefore, further investigation ought to be made. Currently a large amount of sewage sludge and manure is generated in the Leningrad region. These livestock wastes have to be obligatory treated. The most common methods for treatment in the region, such as anaerobic digestion, composting and aging as well as the most potential methods are described in the thesis. The most potential methods for the Leningrad region are anaerobic digestion, composting and combustion. Each method has strengths and weaknesses, which are also considered in the paper. Aging was not considered as potential treatment method because it does not meet the sanitary and epidemiological requirements. Furthermore, the work gives an overview and comparison of Finnish and Russian legislative and normative acts concerning livestock wastes handling. On the whole the requirements of the Russian Federation concerning sewage sludge and manure are not much different from the Finnish ones.

VIX as a stock market indicator

The goal of this research was to make an overall sight to VIX and how it can be used as a stock market indicator. Volatility index, often referred as the fear index, measures how much does it cost for investor to protect his/hers S&P 500 position from fluctuations with options. Over the relatively short history of VIX it has succesfull timing coordinator and it has told about the market state adding its own psychological view of the amount of fear and greed.

Methods for assessing the sustainability of integrated municipal waste management and

The general striving to bring down the number of municipal landfills and to increase the reuse and recycling of waste-derived materials across the EU supports the debates concerning the feasibility and rationality of waste management systems. Substantial decrease in the volume and mass of landfill-disposed waste flows can be achieved by directing suitable waste fractions to energy recovery. Global fossil energy supplies are becoming more and more valuable and expensive energy sources for the mankind, and efforts to save fossil fuels have been made. Waste-derived fuels offer one potential partial solution to two different problems. First, waste that cannot be feasibly re-used or recycled is utilized in the energy conversion process according to EU’s Waste Hierarchy. Second, fossil fuels can be saved for other purposes than energy, mainly as transport fuels. This thesis presents the principles of assessing the most sustainable system solution for an integrated municipal waste management and energy system. The assessment process includes: · formation of a SISMan (Simple Integrated System Management) model of an integrated system including mass, energy and financial flows, and · formation of a MEFLO (Mass, Energy, Financial, Legislational, Other decisionsupport data) decision matrix according to the selected decision criteria, including essential and optional decision criteria. The methods are described and theoretical examples of the utilization of the methods are presented in the thesis. The assessment process involves the selection of different system alternatives (process alternatives for treatment of different waste fractions) and comparison between the alternatives. The first of the two novelty values of the utilization of the presented methods is the perspective selected for the formation of the SISMan model. Normally waste management and energy systems are operated separately according to the targets and principles set for each system. In the thesis the waste management and energy supply systems are considered as one larger integrated system with one primary target of serving the customers, i.e. citizens, as efficiently as possible in the spirit of sustainable development, including the following requirements: · reasonable overall costs, including waste management costs and energy costs; · minimum environmental burdens caused by the integrated waste management and energy system, taking into account the requirement above; and · social acceptance of the selected waste treatment and energy production methods. The integrated waste management and energy system is described by forming a SISMan model including three different flows of the system: energy, mass and financial flows. By defining the three types of flows for an integrated system, the selected factor results needed in the decision-making process of the selection of waste management treatment processes for different waste fractions can be calculated. The model and its results form a transparent description of the integrated system under discussion. The MEFLO decision matrix has been formed from the results of the SISMan model, combined with additional data, including e.g. environmental restrictions and regional aspects. System alternatives which do not meet the requirements set by legislation can be deleted from the comparisons before any closer numerical considerations. The second novelty value of this thesis is the three-level ranking method for combining the factor results of the MEFLO decision matrix. As a result of the MEFLO decision matrix, a transparent ranking of different system alternatives, including selection of treatment processes for different waste fractions, is achieved. SISMan and MEFLO are methods meant to be utilized in municipal decision-making processes concerning waste management and energy supply as simple, transparent and easyto- understand tools. The methods can be utilized in the assessment of existing systems, and particularly in the planning processes of future regional integrated systems. The principles of SISMan and MEFLO can be utilized also in other environments, where synergies of integrating two (or more) systems can be obtained. The SISMan flow model and the MEFLO decision matrix can be formed with or without any applicable commercial or free-of-charge tool/software. SISMan and MEFLO are not bound to any libraries or data-bases including process information, such as different emission data libraries utilized in life cycle assessments.

Towards open access networks – prototyping with the Lappeenranta model

The provision of Internet access to large numbers has traditionally been under the control of operators, who have built closed access networks for connecting customers. As the access network (i.e. the last mile to the customer) is generally the most expensive part of the network because of the vast amount of cable required, many operators have been reluctant to build access networks in rural areas. There are problems also in urban areas, as incumbent operators may use various tactics to make it difficult for competitors to enter the market. Open access networking, where the goal is to connect multiple operators and other types of service providers to a shared network, changes the way in which networks are used. This change in network structure dismantles vertical integration in service provision and enables true competition as no service provider can prevent others fromcompeting in the open access network. This thesis describes the development from traditional closed access networks towards open access networking and analyses different types of open access solution. The thesis introduces a new open access network approach (The Lappeenranta Model) in greater detail. The Lappeenranta Model is compared to other types of open access networks. The thesis shows that end users and service providers see local open access and services as beneficial. In addition, the thesis discusses open access networking in a multidisciplinary fashion, focusing on the real-world challenges of open access networks.