Managing regulatory risks when outsourcing network-related services in the electricity distribution sector

Deregulation of the electricity sector liberated the electricity sale and production for competitive forces while in the network business, electricity transmission and distribution, natural monopoly positions were recognised. Deregulation was accompanied by efficiencyoriented thinking on the whole electricity supply industry. For electricity distribution this meant a transition from a public service towards profit-driven business guided by economic regulation. Regulation is the primary means to enforce societal and other goals in the regulated monopoly sector. The design of economic regulation is concerned with two main attributes; end-customer price and quality of electricity distribution services. Regulation limits the costs of the regulated company but also defines the desired quality of monopoly services. The characteristics of the regulatory framework and the incentives it provides are therefore decisive for the electricity distribution sector. Regulation is not a static factor; changes in the regulatory practices cause discontinuity points, which in turn generate risks. A variety of social and environmental concerns together with technological advancements have emphasised the relevance of quality regulation, which is expected to lead to the large-scale replacement of overhead lines with underground cables. The electricity network construction activity is therefore currently witnessing revolutionary changes in its competitive landscape. In a business characterised by high statutory involvement and a high level of sunk costs, recognising and understanding the regulatory risks becomes a key success factor. As a response, electricity distribution companies have turned into outsourcing to attain efficiency and quality goals. This doctoral thesis addresses the impacts of regulatory risks on electricity network construction, which is a commonly outsourced activity in the electricity distribution network sector. The chosen research approach is characterised as an action analytical research on account of the fact that regulatory risks are greatly dependent on the individual nature of the regulatory regime applied in the electricity distribution sector. The main contribution of this doctoral thesis is to develop a concept for recognising and managing the business risks stemming from economic regulation. The degree of outsourcing in the sector is expected to increase in years to come. The results of the research provide new knowledge to manage the regulatory risks when outsourcing services.

Investment risks in Russia: A Finnish perspective

Purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of Russia's economic environment changes in the total return indexes of Finnish companies. The research data consisted of Finnish publicly listed companies, which have made physical investments to Russia, and operating in the area. The study used six different variables to model the Russian operating environment. The data consists of total return indexes of Finnish companies. From those we calculated the monthly mean interval between timeline of 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009. Sample period is divided into two different parts. Variables impact on companies' total return indices is tested by regression analysis. By F-test we tested significance of model and squared coefficient correlation told us how much model explains from changes. Goodness of the β-coefficient is tested in the model by t-test. The research results shows that the Russian operating environment, or changes in which the active Finnish companies in total return indices. On partial sample periods results were not so significant.

Wind turbine operation in cold climate

The goal of the master‘s thesis is to determine and estimate ice accretion influence on the wind turbine blade performance. The thesis describes the technique of ice accretion calculation on the wind turbine blade and determination characteristics of the turbine with ice accreted. The methodology of the classic Blade Element Moment Theory was used. Iced blade experimental data was investigated in order to calculate blade with ice characteristics. The obtained results shows that iced blade power coefficient is lower than clean blade one. The heating system implementation shows that in the particular site in the Lapland region it is efficient.

The analysis and mitigation of risks in FMCG supply chain: the case of British American Tobacco Eastern Europe

This work investigates the Bullwhip Effect, which is one of the most important phenomena in contemporary supply chain management. The author uses most recent theoretical apparatus to analyze operational activities of a leading FMCG company British American Tobacco Eastern Europe. This paper investigates and describes the process in BAT supply chain management and considers the impact of the Bullwhip Effect together with the potential risks threatening company's operations. Emergence of the Bullwhip Effect leads to supply chain inefficiency. This paper contains methodological supply chain risk mitigation recommendations, description of a real case study and an analytical study of internal and external supply chain processes

Management of commercial property derived risks in the market context of the Russian Federation

The objective of the thesis is to examine the current state of risk management and to determine an appropriate risk management policy for commercial property derived risks in the Russian branch of a Finnish retail trade company. The employed research methodologies are comparative in-depth interviews and empirical value at risk analysis, including portfolio risk decomposition to determine the inter-currency characteristics. For a multinational retail trade company, the commercial property derived risks open up as a diverse combination of financial and non-financial risks with four distinctive interest groups. The research results indicate that geographical diversification across currency regimes provides diversification benefits. The Russian ruble is the most significant single risk component when considering the net investments outside the euro-zone. Decreasing the Russian ruble and Swedish krona exposures are the most effective methods to reduce translation derived risk. Exchange rate volatility varies over time according to idiosyncratic currency regime characteristics, and cost-effective risk management requires comprehensive analysis of the business environment. Profound and proactive risk management methods are found to be pivotal for companies with cross-border operations in order to succeed among international competitors.

Climate driven changes in temperature, pH and food quality : effects on copepod reproduction

Increased emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere are causing an anthropogenic climate change. The resulting global warming challenges the ability of organisms to adapt to the new temperature conditions. However, warming is not the only major threat. In marine environments, dissolution of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere causes a decrease in surface water pH, the so called ocean acidification. The temperature and acidification effects can interact, and create even larger problems for the marine flora and fauna than either of the effects would cause alone. I have used Baltic calanoid copepods (crustacean zooplankton) as my research object and studied their growth and stress responses using climate predictions projected for the next century. I have studied both direct temperature and pH effects on copepods, and indirect effects via their food: the changing phytoplankton spring bloom composition and toxic cyanobacterium. The main aims of my thesis were: 1) to find out how warming and acidification combined with a toxic cyanobacterium affect copepod reproductive success (egg production, egg viability, egg hatching success, offspring development) and oxidative balance (antioxidant capacity, oxidative damage), and 2) to reveal the possible food quality effects of spring phytoplankton bloom composition dominated by diatoms or dinoflagellates on reproducing copepods (egg production, egg hatching, RNA:DNA ratio). The two copepod genera used, Acartia sp. and Eurytemora affinis are the dominating mesozooplankton taxa (0.2 – 2 mm) in my study area the Gulf of Finland. The 20°C temperature seems to be within the tolerance limits of Acartia spp., because copepods can adapt to the temperature phenotypically by adjusting their body size. Copepods are also able to tolerate a pH decrease of 0.4 from present values, but the combination of warm water and decreased pH causes problems for them. In my studies, the copepod oxidative balance was negatively influenced by the interaction of these two environmental factors, and egg and nauplii production were lower at 20°C and lower pH, than at 20°C and ambient pH. However, presence of toxic cyanobacterium Nodularia spumigena improved the copepod oxidative balance and helped to resist the environmental stress, in question. In addition, adaptive maternal effects seem to be an important adaptation mechanism in a changing environment, but it depends on the condition of the female copepod and her diet how much she can invest in her offspring. I did not find systematic food quality difference between diatoms and dinoflagellates. There are both good and bad diatom and dinoflagellate species. Instead, the dominating species in the phytoplankton bloom composition has a central role in determining the food quality, although copepods aim at obtaining as a balanced diet as possible by foraging on several species. If the dominating species is of poor quality it can cause stress when ingested, or lead to non-optimal foraging if rejected. My thesis demonstrates that climate change induced water temperature and pH changes can cause problems to Baltic Sea copepod communities. However, their resilience depends substantially on their diet, and therefore the response of phytoplankton to the environmental changes. As copepods are an important link in pelagic food webs, their future success can have far reaching consequences, for example on fish stocks.

Oil Transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2020 and 2030

This study is part of the Minimizing risks of maritime oil transport by holistic safety strategies (MIMIC) project. The purpose of this study is to provide a current state analysis of oil transportation volumes in the Baltic Sea and to create scenarios for oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland for the years 2020 and 2030. Future scenarios and information about oil transportation will be utilized in the modelling of oil transportation risks, which will be carried out as part of the MIMIC project. Approximately 290 million tons of oil and oil products were transported in the Baltic Sea in 2009, of which 55% (160 million tons) via the Gulf of Finland. Oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland have increased from 40 million to almost 160 million tonnes over the last ten years. In Russia and Estonia, oil transportation mainly consists of export transports of the Russian oil industry. In Finnish ports in the Gulf of Finland, the majority of oil traffic is concentrated to the port of Sköldvik, while the remainder mainly consists of different oil products for domestic use. Transit transports to/from Russia make up small volumes of oil transportation. The largest oil ports in the Gulf of Finland are Primorsk, Tallinn, St. Petersburg and Sköldvik. The basis for the scenarios for the years 2020 and 2030 is formed by national energy strategies, the EU`s climate and energy strategies as well other energy and transportation forecasts for the years 2020 and 2030. Three alternative scenarios were produced for both 2020 and 2030. The oil volumes are based on the expert estimates of nine specialists. The specialists gave three volumes for each scenario: the expected oil transport volumes, and the minimum and maximum volumes. Variations in the volumes between the scenarios are not large, but each scenario tends to have rather a large difference between the figures for minimum and maximum volumes. This variation between the minimum and maximum volumes ranges around 30 to 40 million tonnes depending on the scenario. On the basis of this study, no a dramatic increase in oil transportation volumes in the Gulf of Finland is to be expected. Most of the scenarios only forecasted a moderate growth in maritime oil transportation compared to the current levels. The effects of the European energy policy favouring renewable energy sources can be seen in the 2030 scenarios, in which the transported oil volumes are smaller than in the 2020 scenarios. In the Slow development 2020 scenario, oil transport volumes for 2020 are expected to be 170.6 Mt (million tonnes), in the Average development 2020 187.1 Mt and in the Strong development 2020 201.5 Mt. The corresponding oil volumes for the 2030 scenarios were 165 Mt for the Stagnating development 2030 scenario, 177.5 Mt for the Towards a greener society 2030 scenario and 169.5 Mt in the Decarbonising society 2030 scenario.

Enterprise applications migration to the cloud: risks and opportunities

Millions of enterprises move their applications to a cloud every year. According to Forrester Research “the global cloud computing market will grow from a $40.7 billion in 2011 to $241 billion in 2020”. Due to increased interests and demand broad range of providers and solutions have appeared in the market. It is vital to be able to predict possible problems correctly and to classify and mitigate risks associated with the migration process. The study will show the main criteria that should be taken into consideration while making decision of moving enterprise applications to the cloud and choosing appropriate vendor. The main goal of the research is to identify main problems during the migration to a cloud and propose a solution for their prevention and mitigation of consequences in case of occurrence. The research provides an overview of existing cloud solutions and deployment models for enterprise applications. It identifies decision drivers of an applications migration to a cloud and potential risks and benefits associated with this. Finally, the best practices for the successful enterprise-to-cloud migration based on the case studies analysis are formulated.

Interdependence of Emerging Eastern European stock markets

One of the main developments in the global economy during the past decades has been the growth of emerging economies. Projections for their long-term growth, changes in the investment climate, corporate transparency and demography point to an increasing role for these emerging economies in the global economy. Today, emerging economies are usually considered as financial markets offering opportunities for high returns, good risk diversification and improved return-to-risk ratios. However, researchers have noted that these advantages may be in decline because of the increasing market integration. Nevertheless, it is likely that certain financial markets and specific sectors will remain partially segmented and somewhat insulated from the global economy for the year to come. This doctoral dissertation investigates several stock markets in Emerging Eastern Europe (EEE), including the ones in Russia, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Slovenia. The objective is to analyze the returns and financial risks in these emerging markets from international investor’s point of view. This study also examines the segmentation/integration of these financial markets and the possibilities to diversify and hedge financial risk. The dissertation is divided into two parts. The first includes a review of the theoretical background for the articles and a review of the literature on EEE stock markets. It includes an overview of the methodology and research design applied in the analysis and a summary of articles from the second part of this dissertation and their main findings. The second part consists of four research publications. This work contributes to studies on emerging stock markets in four ways. First, it adds to the body of research on the pricing of risk, providing new empirical evidence about partial stock market segmentation in EEE. The results suggest that the aggregate emerging market risk is a relevant driver for stock market returns and that this market risk can be used to price financial instruments and forecast their performance. Second, it contributes to the empirical research on the integration of stock markets, asset prices and exchange rates by identifying the relationships between these markets through volatility and asset pricing. The results show that certain sectors of stock markets in EEE are not as integrated as others. For example, the Polish consumer goods sector, the Hungarian telecommunications sector, and the Czech financial sector are somewhat isolated from their counterparts elsewhere in Europe. Nevertheless, an analysis of the impact of EU accession in 2004 on stock markets suggests that most of the EEE markets are becoming increasingly integrated with the global markets. Third, this thesis complements the scientific literature in the field of shock and volatility spillovers by examining the mechanism of spillover distribution among the EU and EEE countries. The results illustrate that spillovers in emerging markets are mostly from a foreign exchange to the stock markets. Moreover, the results show that the effects of external shocks on stock markets have increased after the enlargement of the EU in 2004. Finally, this study is unique because it analyzes the effects of foreign macroeconomic news on geographically closely related countries. The results suggest that the effects of macroeconomic announcements on volatility are significant and have effect that varies across markets and their sectors. Moreover, the results show that the foreign macroeconomic news releases, somewhat surprisingly, have a greater effect on the EEE markets than the local macroeconomic news. This dissertation has a number of implications for the industry and for practitioners. It analyses financial risk associated with investing in Emerging Eastern Europe. Investors may use this information to construct and optimize investment portfolios. Moreover, this dissertation provides insights for investors and portfolio managers considering asset allocation to protect value or obtain higher returns. The results have also implications for asset pricing and portfolio selection in light of macroeconomic news releases.

A new climatic periodisation of the Gold and Guinea Coasts in West Africa, 1750-1798 : a reconstruction of the climate during the slave trade era, including an analysis of the climatically facilitated Trans-Atlantic slave trade

Avsikten med studien är att producera den första rekonstruktionen av det västafrikanska klimatet mellan 1750 och 1798. Kunskapen om det västafrikanska klimatet före 1800-talet är till dags dato bristfällig, vilket gör det svårare att förstå framtida klimatvariationer. Det är bristen på instrumentell meteorologisk data (temperatur, regnmängd, och lufttryck), vilket i princip bara täcker det senaste århundradet, som är orsaken till att tidigare klimat är bristfälligt kartlagda. Klimatet och miljön är även sådana att proxydata från ’naturens arkiv’ (såsom t.ex. trädringar) har begränsad användning. Således är historiska dokument, främst från gästande kulturer/nationer/intressenter, innehållande deskriptiv information om vädret och klimatet, klimatforskarens viktigaste källa. Genom att använda tidigare, för det här syftet, oanvända källor påvisade den här undersökningen att klimatet i västra Afrika och Guldkusten (Ghana) har ändrats sedan 1700-talet. Monsunregnen var svagare och kortvarigare, speciellt den sekundära regnperioden under hösten var betydligt svagare än idag. Det förekom kraftiga årliga variationer i monsunregnen, men sett ur längre tidsperspektiv utmärktes torrare och blötare perioder. Studien kunde också visa en viss korrelation mellan det globala väderfenomenet El Niño och regnperiodens intensitet längs med kusten. Flera torrperioder sammanföll med tidigare registrerade El Niño sekvenser. Speciellt slutet av 1760-talet påverkades kraftigt av El Niño och även det globala klimatet verkar ha genomgått graftiga förändringar just dessa år. På basis av den nya klimatrekonstruktionen genomfördes också en jämförelse av klimatets inverkan på den transatlantiska slavhandeln från 1750 till 1798, en fråga som historikerna gjort anspelningar på i över 30 år. Utförseln av slavar från västra Afrika var som kraftigast under 1700-talets andra hälft. Analysen visade att slavhandeln delvis tilltog i samband med klimatanomalierna.

Supply network risks and costs in Finnish project business

This report summarizes the results of the survey HAVERI – Supply network risks in business. The survey was conducted in Finland during the spring and summer of year 2013. The survey is part of a large two-year research project started in June 2012 in Finland (on-going 06/2012–07/2014). The project is launched and financed by TEKES, the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation, and executed together with the researchers from Lappeenranta University of Technology and Tampere University of Technology. The overall goal of this on-going research project is to find out the decision-making practices in the project-oriented companies in their purchasing decisions especially in the mechanical engineering and construction industries in Finland. The objective of the survey was to gain cross-sectional data concerning the challenges, risks and cost factors in Finnish project business companies. The results show that Finnish companies rely on their experience and supplier references in their risk management. In general, the understanding of the total cost structure varies among the industries and companies. The main cost factor in risk management was costs before the actual purchase decision. Overall, it seems that the monetary value of the whole project and capability of purchasing personnel are the main influencing factors on risk management activity in project purchasing.

The logistic risks of Finnish companies operating in China

Selvitys suomalaisten yritysten kohtaamista logistisista ongelmista Kiinan markkinoilla toimiessa. Tutkielma tuo esiin Kiinan logistiikkaan liittyvät erityispiirteet ja heijastaa niitä haastattelujen avulla suomalaisiin yrityksiin, jotka operoivat Kiinassa.