Development of Rouble Exchange Rate in Russia

NORDIn julkaisu 45 käsittelee ruplan kehitystä. Vuonna 1998 rupla kärsi rajusta rahanarvon alenemisesta, minkä jälkiseuraksena investointi alkoi Venäjällä kasvaa. Uusi devalvoitu ruplan vaihtokurssi toi hintakilpailykykyä paikalliselle teollisuudelle. Tämän lisäksi Venäjän öljyn vientihintojen nousu ja maakaasujakelu ovat edesauttaneet taloudellista kasvua viime aikoina. Tämän noususuhdanteen vallitessa inflaatiopaine on pysynyt korkealla. Hinnannousut ovat olleet korkeampia kuinEU:ssa, Venäjän pääkauppakumppanilla. Kuitenkin, ruplan/euron vaihtokurssit ovat pysyneet nimellisesti melko vakaina tällä vuosikymmenellä. Tämä tarkoittaa, että todellisuudessa rupla vahvistuu euroa vastaan, mikä heikentää Venäjän kansainvälistä kilpailykykyä.

Nutrient enrichment and water depth modify consumer control in rocky shore macroalgal communities

The objective of my thesis is to assess mechanisms of ecological community control in macroalgal communities in the Baltic Sea. In the top-down model, predatory fish feed on invertebrate mesograzers, releasing algae partly from grazing pressure. Such a reciprocal relationship is called trophic cascade. In the bottom-up model, nutrients increase biomass in the food chain. The nutrients are first assimilated by algae and, via food chain, increase also abundance of grazers and predators. Previous studies on oceanic shores have described these two regulative mechanisms in the grazer - alga link, but how they interact in the trophic cascades from fish to algae is still inadequately known. Because the top-down and bottom-up mechanisms are predicted to depend on environmental disturbances, such as wave stress and light, I have studied these models at two distinct water depths. There are five factorial field experiments behind the thesis, which were all conducted in the Finnish Archipelago Sea. In all the experiments, I studied macroalgal colonization - either density, filament length or biomass - on submerged colonization substrates. By excluding predatory fish and mesograzers from the algal communities, the studies compared the strength of the top-down control to natural algal communities. A part of the experimental units were, in addition, exposed to enriched nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, which enabled testing of bottom-up control. These two models of community control were further investigated in shallow (<1 m) and deep (ca. 3 m) water. Moreover, the control mechanisms were also expected to depend on grazer species. Therefore different grazer species were enclosed into experimental units and their impacts on macroalgal communities were followed specifically. The community control in the Baltic rocky shores was found to follow theoretical predictions, which have not been confirmed by field studies before. Predatory fish limited grazing impact, which was seen as denser algal communities and longer algal filaments. Nutrient enrichment increased density and filament length of annual algae and, thus, changed the species composition of the algal community. The perennial alga Fucus vesiculosusA and the red alga Ceramium tenuicorne suffered from the increased nutrient availabilities. The enriched nutrient conditions led to denser grazer fauna, thereby causing strong top-down control over both the annual and perennial macroalgae. The strength of the top-down control seemed to depend on the density and diversity of grazers and predators as well as on the species composition of macroalgal assemblages. The nutrient enrichment led to, however, weaker limiting impact of predatory fish on grazer fauna, because fish stocks did not respond as quickly to enhanced resources in the environment as the invertebrate fauna. According to environmental stress model, environmental disturbances weaken the top-down control. For example, on a wave-exposed shore, wave stress causes more stress to animals close to the surface than deeper on the shore. Mesograzers were efficient consumers at both the depths, while predation by fish was weaker in shallow water. Thus, the results supported the environmental stress model, which predicts that environmental disturbance affects stronger the higher a species is in the food chain. This thesis assessed the mechanisms of community control in three-level food chains and did not take into account higher predators. Such predators in the Baltic Sea are, for example, cormorant, seals, white-tailed sea eagle, cod and salmon. All these predatory species were recently or are currently under intensive fishing, hunting and persecution, and their stocks have only recently increased in the region. Therefore, it is possible that future densities of top predators may yet alter the strengths of the controlling mechanisms in the Baltic littoral zone.

Vasicek interest rate model

Tässä tutkielmassa estimoidaan korkomallin parametrit Maximum likelihood metodilla sekä näytetään kuinka mallintaa lyhyen koron evoluutiota ja korkokäyrän rakennetta.

Vedenlaadun parantamismahdollisuudet virtausohjauksen avulla läntisen Pien-Saimaan tapauksessa

Läntisen Pien-Saimaan vesistön alueella on ilmennyt voimakasta sinileväkukintaa vuosina 2006 - 2009. Yksi tehokas keino vähentää sinilevien määrää ja parantaa vedenlaatua, onravinnepitoisuuksien alentaminen virtausohjauksen avulla. Tästä on 70 vuoden kokemus Pien- Saimaan itäosissa, joissa Vehkataipaleen pumppaamon virta on pitänyt vedenlaadun hyvänä huolimatta vesialuetta raskaasti rasittavasta puunjalostusteollisuudesta. Diplomityössä selvitetään mahdollisuuksia toteuttaa virtauksenohjausta myös läntisen Pien-Saimaan puolella, jolloin tavoitteena on vedenlaadun paraneminen. Vedenlaadun parantamista edellyttää myös Euroopan unionin vesipuitedirektiivi. Selvityksessä tarkasteltiin virtauksenohjauksen eri toteutusvaihtoehtoja ja arvioitiin näiden vaikutuksia eri alueiden vedenlaatuun. Tämän lisäksi kartoitettiin ja arvioitiin eri vaihtoehdoista aiheutuvia riskejä. Näiden tietojen pohjalta päädyttiin suositeltaviin virtauksenohjauksen toteutusvaihtoehtoihin, joita ovat Kolhonlahti – Kolinlahti välillä toteutettu pumppaus ja mahdollisen Kutilan kanavan rakentamisen yhteydessä Kopinsalmen pumppaamo. Kolhonlahti – Kolinlahti sijaitsee Pien-Saimaan koillisosassa lähellä Rehulaa. Muista tarkastelluista kohteista saatiin yhdistelemällä suositeltavaksi vaihtoehdoksi myös Vehkataipaleen pumppaamon virran kasvattaminen yhdistettynä Kirjamoinsalmen tai Kopinsalmen pumppaamoon. Tämän lisäksi eri vaihtoehdoille laadittiin alustava kustannustarkastelu. Selvityksessä käytettyjä menetelmiä ja tuloksia voidaan soveltaa myös muihin vastaavan tyyppisiin vesistöjen kunnostushankkeisiin. Työssä on lisäksi koottu yhteen yleistietoja Pien-Saimaasta ja sen tunnetuista virtauksista.

Ecological and Epidemiological Analyses of Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Rate

The underlying cause of many human autoimmune diseases is unknown, but several environmental factors are implicated in triggering the self-destructive immune reactions. Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease of the central nervous system, potentially leading to persistent neurological deterioration. The cause of MS is not known, and apart from immunomodulatory treatments there is no cure. In the early phase of the disease, relapsing-remitting MS (RR-MS) is characterized by unpredictable exacerbations of the neurological symptoms called relapses, which can occur at different intervals ranging from 4 weeks to several years. Microbial infections are known to be able to trigger MS relapses, and the patients are instructed to avoid all factors that might increase the risk of infections and to properly use antibiotics as well as to take care of dental hygiene. Among those environmental factors which are known to increase susceptibility to infections, high ambient air inhalable particulate matter levels affect all people within a geographical region. During the period of interest in this thesis, the occurrence of MS relapses could be effectively reduced by injections of interferon, which has immunomodulatory and antiviral properties. In this thesis, ecological and epidemiological analyses were used to study the possible connection between MS relapse occurrence, population level viral infections and air quality factors, as well as the effects of interferon medication. Hospital archive data were collected retrospectively from 1986-2001, a period in time ranging from when interferon medication first became available until just before other disease-modifying MS therapies arrived on the market. The grouped data were studied with logistic regression and intervention analysis, and individual patient data with survival analysis. Interferons proved to be effective in the treatment of MS in this observational study, as the amount of MS exacerbations was lower during interferon use as compared to the time before interferon treatment. A statistically significant temporal relationship between MS relapses and inhalable particular matter (PM₁₀) concentrations was found in this study, which implies that MS patients are affected by the exposure to PM₁₀. Interferon probably protected against the effect of PM₁₀, because a significant increase in the risk of exacerbations was only observed in MS patients without interferon medication following environmental exposure to population level specific viral infections and PM₁₀. Apart from being antiviral, interferon could thus also attenuate the enhancement of immune reactions caused by ambient air PM₁₀. The retrospective approach utilizing carefully constructed hospital records proved to be an economical and reliable source of MS disease information for statistical analyses.

The determination of EONIA rate: The impact of the financial crisis and the effects of the changes in the monetary policy implementation framework

EONIA is a market based overnight interest rate, whose role as the starting point of the yield curve makes it critical from the perspective of the implementation of European Central Bank´s common monetary policy in the euro area. The financial crisis that started in 2007 had a large impact on the determination mechanism of this interest rate, which is considered as the central bank´s operational target. This thesis examines the monetary policy implementation framework of the European Central Bank and changes made to it. Furthermore, we discuss the development of the recent turmoil in the money market. EONIA rate is modelled by means of a regression equation using variables related to liquidity conditions, refinancing need, auction results and calendar effects. Conditional volatility is captured by an EGARCH model, and autocorrelation is taken into account by employing an autoregressive structure. The results highlight how the tensions in the initial stage of the market turmoil were successfully countered by ECB´s liquidity policy. The subsequent response of EONIA to liquidity conditions under the full allotment liquidity provision procedure adopted after the demise of Lehman Brothers is also established. A clear distinction in the behavior of the interest rate between the sub-periods was evident. In the light of the results obtained, some of the challenges posed by the exit-strategy implementation will be addressed.

Improving the calculation of rate of stratification in APROS

APROS (Advanced Process Simulation Environment) is a computer simulation program developed to simulate thermal hydraulic processes in nuclear and conventional power plants. Earlier research at VTT Technological Research Centre of Finland had found the current version of APROS to produce inaccurate simulation results for a certain case of loop seal clearing. The objective of this Master’s thesis is to find and implement an alternative method for calculating the rate of stratification in APROS, which was found to be the reason for the inaccuracies. Brief literature study was performed and a promising candidate for the new method was found. The new method was implemented into APROS and tested against experiments and simulations from two test facilities and the current version of APROS. Simulation results with the new version were partially conflicting; in some cases the new method was more accurate than the current version, in some the current method was better. Overall, the new method can be assessed as an improvement.

A study on rate correlations of gasification reactions

Gasification offers an environmentally friendly alternative for conventional combustion enabling the use of low grade and troublesome fuel such as municipal waste. While combustion converts fuel directly into thermal energy and noxious gases, gasification thermally converts fuel into gas that can be used in multiple applications. The purpose of this work is to get to know the gasification as a phenomenon and examine the kinetics of gasification. The main interest is in the reaction rates of the most important gasification reactions - water-gas, Boudouard and shift reaction. Reaction rate correlations found in the scientific articles are examined in atmospheric pressure in different temperatures.

Ekologinen kestävyys Suomen innovaatiojärjestelmässä

Tämän diplomityön tavoitteena on tutkia ekologisen kestävyyden huomioimista Suomen innovaatiojärjestelmässä. Ekologinen kestävyys on osa laajempaa kestävän kehityksen käsitettä, joka syntyi jo 1980-luvun lopulla. Sillä viitataan toimintaan, joka jättää mahdollisuuksia tuleville sukupolville yhtä paljon tai enemmän kuin nykyään on käytettävissä. Kestävyyteen pyritään nykyisin laajalti ja sen toteutumisen turvaamiseksi on laadittu muun muassa EU-maat, Pohjoismaat ja Suomen kattavat strategiat. Ekologisen kestävyyden suurimmat uhat ovat tällä hetkellä ilmastonmuutos, biodiversiteetin pieneneminen ja ravinteiden kierto. Kestävä innovointi ja ympäristöinnovaatiot ovat tärkeitä keinoja ekologiseen kestävyyteen panostettaessa. Näissä innovaatioissa kyse on teknologian, talouden ja ympäristön tasapainosta. Suomen innovaatiotoimintaa tuetaan ja kansallista kilpailukykyä pidetään yllä kansallisen innovaatiojärjestelmän avulla. Suomen innovaatiojärjestelmässä on useita eri tason toimijoita. Tärkeimpinä voidaan pitää päättäjiä, rahoittajia ja tutkimuksen tuottajia. Rahoituksen suuntaaminen vaikuttaa siihen, mistä aihealueista tutkimusta tuotetaan. Suomen Akatemialla, Tekesillä ja Sitralla on ekologista kestävyyttä edistäviä ohjelmia. Lisäksi mm. SHOK:issa on huomioitu ekologisuus. Perustutkimusta rahoitetaan Suomen innovaatiojärjestelmässä huomattavasti soveltavaa tutkimusta vähemmän. Ekologiseen kestävyyteen panostavan tutkimuksen teemoista nousee selkeimmin esiin kestävä energiantuotanto sekä kestävä rakentaminen. Jatkotutkimuksena voisi selvittää, kuinka nämä panostukset ovat vaikuttaneet suomalaiseen rakennusalaan.