Investment Determinants and Future Shape of Russia's Power Generation

The reformation of power sector is still in the process of development. The present day situation in Russian electricity power market ischaracterized as transitional period: competitive electricity market is forming, new companies are being created and the power of government regulation is decreasing. The main aim of the reformation is to attract much-needed private investments to the power sector. The electricity consumption increases very rapidly and power sector has to cope with high demand. The goal of this master's thesis is to analyze the nowadays situation in Russian power sector, such as generation structure, condition of electricity networks, electricity price formation for end-users, shape of fuel sector and investments risks and attraction.The final result of this work is creation of scenario of Russian power sector future shape and analysis of the present day situation.

Strategic investment appraisal; extended real options approach

Tutkielma keskittyy lisäämään investointiarviointiprosessien rationaalisuutta strategisten investointien arvioinnissa duopoli- / oligopolimarkkinoilla. Tutkielman päätavoitteena on selvittää kuinka peliteorialla laajennettu reaalioptioperusteinen investointien arviointimenetelmä, laajennettu reaalioptiokehikko, voisi mahdollisesti parantaa analyysien tarkkuutta. Tutkimus lähestyy ongelmaa investoinnin ajoituksen sekä todellisten investoinnin arvoattribuuttien riippuvuuksien kautta. Laajennettu reaalioptiokehikko on investointien analysointi- ja johtamistyökalu, joka tarjoaa osittain rajoitetun (sisältää tällä hetkellä ainoastaan parametrisen ja peliteoreettisen epävarmuuden) optimaalisen arvovälin investoinnin todellisesta arvosta. Kehikossa, ROA kartoittaa mahdolliset strategiset hyödyt tunnistamalla investointiinliittyvät eri optiot ja epävarmuudet, peliteoria korostaa ympäristön luomia paineita investointiin liittyvän epävarmuuden hallitsemisessa. Laajennettu reaalioptiokehikko tarjoaa rationaalisemman arvion strategisen investoinnin arvosta, koska se yhdistää johdonmukaisemmin option toteutuksen ja siten myös optioiden aika-arvon, yrityksen todellisiin rajoitettuihin (rajoituksena muiden markkinatoimijoiden toimet) polkuriippuvaisiin kyvykkyyksiin.

Are Evaluation of ICTs Investment Using Decision Support Systems:Case Applications from Distributor's and End User's Perspective Group Decision

The evaluation of investments in advanced technology is one of the most important decision making tasks. The importance is even more pronounced considering the huge budget concerning the strategic, economic and analytic justification in order to shorten design and development time. Choosing the most appropriate technology requires an accurate and reliable system that can lead the decision makers to obtain such a complicated task. Currently, several Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) manufacturers that design global products are seeking local firms to act as their sales and services representatives (called distributors) to the end user. At the same time, the end user or customer is also searching for the best possible deal for their investment in ICT's projects. Therefore, the objective of this research is to present a holistic decision support system to assist the decision maker in Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) - working either as individual decision makers or in a group - in the evaluation of the investment to become an ICT's distributor or an ICT's end user. The model is composed of the Delphi/MAH (Maximising Agreement Heuristic) Analysis, a well-known quantitative method in Group Support System (GSS), which is applied to gather the average ranking data from amongst Decision Makers (DMs). After that the Analytic Network Process (ANP) analysis is brought in to analyse holistically: it performs quantitative and qualitative analysis simultaneously. The illustrative data are obtained from industrial entrepreneurs by using the Group Support System (GSS) laboratory facilities at Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland and in Thailand. The result of the research, which is currently implemented in Thailand, can provide benefits to the industry in the evaluation of becoming an ICT's distributor or an ICT's end user, particularly in the assessment of the Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) programme. After the model is put to test with an in-depth collaboration with industrial entrepreneurs in Finland and Thailand, the sensitivity analysis is also performed to validate the robustness of the model. The contribution of this research is in developing a new approach and the Delphi/MAH software to obtain an analysis of the value of becoming an ERP distributor or end user that is flexible and applicable to entrepreneurs, who are looking for the most appropriate investment to become an ERP distributor or end user. The main advantage of this research over others is that the model can deliver the value of becoming an ERP distributor or end user in a single number which makes it easier for DMs to choose the most appropriate ERP vendor. The associated advantage is that the model can include qualitative data as well as quantitative data, as the results from using quantitative data alone can be misleading and inadequate. There is a need to utilise quantitative and qualitative analysis together, as can be seen from the case studies.

Integrated Project Portfolio Management as a Tool for Strategic Steering and Business Control

Tutkielman päätavoitteena oli tutkia miten projektisalkun hallinnalla voidaan tukea organisaation strategista ohjausta ja liiketoimintaa. Tämän lisäksi avaintavoitteina oli kuvata projektisalkun hallinnan nykytilanne kohdeyrityksessä, paljastaa erityisiä kehitystarpeita ja lopulta luoda kohdeyrityksen projektisalkunhallinnalle tavoitetila. Kirjallisuuskatsauksessa pohdittiin projektisalkun hallinnan roolia ja tavoitteita, projektisalkun hallinnassa käyttävää prosessia, sekä menetelmiä ja tekniikoita, joilla salkkua hallitaan. Työn empiirisessä osassa syvennyttiin tutkimaan projektinsalkun hallintaan liittyviä erityispiirteitä kohdeyrityksessä. Tutkimustulosten huolellinen analysointi osoitti, että aikaisempi kirjallisuus ei riittävästi huomioi kokonaisvaltaisen, integroidun lähestymistavan tarvetta ja viestinnän tärkeyttä projektisalkun hallinnassa. Tutkimuksen johtopäätöksinä luotiin uusi integroitu projektisalkun hallintamalli ja määriteltiin kohdeyritykselle projektisalkun hallinnan tavoitetila sekä ne kehitysaskeleet, joita yrityksen tulisi lähitulevaisuudessa ottaa.

Tuoteportfolion kehittäminen ja uusien asiakassegmenttien etsintä

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoite oli kaksijakoinen. Ensimmäisenä tavoitteena oli profiililiiketoiminnan tehostaminen tuoteportfoliota kehittämällä. Toisena ta-voitteena oli etsiä kannattavimpia asiakassegmenttejä. Työn pääajurina nähtiin kilpailukyky, keskeistä oli ymmärtää mistä kilpailukyky syntyy ja mikä on case-organisaation asema markkinoilla. Laajemmin tavoitteena oli päästä eroon teräsmarkkinoiden syklisyydestä ja pelkästään hintoihin perustuvasta liiketoiminnasta. Tutkimuksessa etsittiin case-organisaation ja kilpailijoiden vahvuuksia ja heikkouksia. Kilpailijoiden asema markkinoilla sekä uusien asiakassegmenttien kiinnostavuus selvitettiin kyselytutkimuksen sekä haastattelujen avulla. Kyselytutkimus toteutettiin avoimilla kysymyksillä varustetulla kyselylomakkeella. Vahvuuksien ja heikkouksien tunnistamisen lisäksi oli tärkeää ymmärtää mitä tekijöitä case-organisaation tulee hankkia tulevaisuuden kilpailukyvyn ylläpitämiseksi. Tutkimuksessa tultiin johtopäätökseen, että paras keino vastata markkinoilla vallitsevaa kilpailuun on keskittyä tuoteportfoliossa avoprofiileihin, joiden seinämäpaksuus on yli 8 mm. Lisäksi heräsi tarve pohtia uuden järeän profilointilinjan hankintaa tulevaisuuden kilpailukyvyn ylläpitämiseksi. Potentiaalisimmiksi uusiksi asiakassegmenteiksi nähtiin nosto- ja siirtovälineteollisuus, infrastruktuuri- ja rakennusteollisuus sekä energiateollisuus. Työssä todettiin myös, että tulevaisuuden kilpailukyvyn ylläpitämiseksi on tuotetarjontaa monipuolistettava lisäämällä oheispalveluita, kuten asiakasvarastointia.

Essays on pricing of risk and international linkage of Russian stock market

Last two decades have seen a rapid change in the global economic and financial situation; the economic conditions in many small and large underdeveloped countries started to improve and they became recognized as emerging markets. This led to growth in the amounts of global investments in these countries, partly spurred by expectations of higher returns, favorable risk-return opportunities, and better diversification alternatives to global investors. This process, however, has not been without problems and it has emphasized the need for more information on these markets. In particular, the liberalization of financial markets around the world, globalization of trade and companies, recent formation of economic and regional blocks, and the rapid development of underdeveloped countries during the last two decades have brought a major challenge to the financial world and researchers alike. This doctoral dissertation studies one of the largest emerging markets, namely Russia. The motivation why the Russian equity market is worth investigating includes, among other factors, its sheer size, rapid and robust economic growth since the turn of the millennium, future prospect for international investors, and a number of important major financial reforms implemented since the early 1990s. Another interesting feature of the Russian economy, which gives motivation to study Russian market, is Russia’s 1998 financial crisis, considered as one of the worst crisis in recent times, affecting both developed and developing economies. Therefore, special attention has been paid to Russia’s 1998 financial crisis throughout this dissertation. This thesis covers the period from the birth of the modern Russian financial markets to the present day, Special attention is given to the international linkage and the 1998 financial crisis. This study first identifies the risks associated with Russian market and then deals with their pricing issues. Finally some insights about portfolio construction within Russian market are presented. The first research paper of this dissertation considers the linkage of the Russian equity market to the world equity market by examining the international transmission of the Russia’s 1998 financial crisis utilizing the GARCH-BEKK model proposed by Engle and Kroner. Empirical results shows evidence of direct linkage between the Russian equity market and the world market both in regards of returns and volatility. However, the weakness of the linkage suggests that the Russian equity market was only partially integrated into the world market, even though the contagion can be clearly seen during the time of the crisis period. The second and the third paper, co-authored with Mika Vaihekoski, investigate whether global, local and currency risks are priced in the Russian stock market from a US investors’ point of view. Furthermore, the dynamics of these sources of risk are studied, i.e., whether the prices of the global and local risk factors are constant or time-varying over time. We utilize the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard (1998). Similar to them we find price of global market risk to be time-varying. Currency risk also found to be priced and highly time varying in the Russian market. Moreover, our results suggest that the Russian market is partially segmented and local risk is also priced in the market. The model also implies that the biggest impact on the US market risk premium is coming from the world risk component whereas the Russian risk premium is on average caused mostly by the local and currency components. The purpose of the fourth paper is to look at the relationship between the stock and the bond market of Russia. The objective is to examine whether the correlations between two classes of assets are time varying by using multivariate conditional volatility models. The Constant Conditional Correlation model by Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Engle (2002), and an asymmetric version of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation model by Cappiello et al. (2006) are used in the analysis. The empirical results do not support the assumption of constant conditional correlation and there was clear evidence of time varying correlations between the Russian stocks and bond market and both asset markets exhibit positive asymmetries. The implications of the results in this dissertation are useful for both companies and international investors who are interested in investing in Russia. Our results give useful insights to those involved in minimising or managing financial risk exposures, such as, portfolio managers, international investors, risk analysts and financial researchers. When portfolio managers aim to optimize the risk-return relationship, the results indicate that at least in the case of Russia, one should account for the local market as well as currency risk when calculating the key inputs for the optimization. In addition, the pricing of exchange rate risk implies that exchange rate exposure is partly non-diversifiable and investors are compensated for bearing the risk. Likewise, international transmission of stock market volatility can profoundly influence corporate capital budgeting decisions, investors’ investment decisions, and other business cycle variables. Finally, the weak integration of the Russian market and low correlations between Russian stock and bond market offers good opportunities to the international investors to diversify their portfolios.

Economical and operational analysis of outsourced warehouse function

The target of the thesis was to find out has the decision to outsource part of Filtronic LK warehouse function been profitable. Furthermore, another thesis target was to demonstrate current logistics processes between TPLP and company and find out the targets for developing these processes. The decision to outsource part of logistical funtions have been profitable during the first business year. Partnership includes always business risks. Risk increases high asset specific investments. In the other hand investment to partnership increases mutual trust and commitment between parties. By developing partnership risks and opportunitic behaviour can be decreased. The potential of managing material and data flows between logistic service provider and company observed. By analyzing inventory effiency were highlighted the need for decreasing the capital invested to inventories. The recommendations for managing outsourced logistical funtions were established such as improving partnership, process development, performance measurement and invoice checking.

Project and customer profitability analysis: an empirical case study

The objective of this case study is to provide a Finnish solution provider company an objective, in-depth analysis of their project based business and especially of project estimation accuracy. A project and customer profitability analysis is conducted as a complementary addition to describe profitability of the Case Company’s core division. The theoretical framework is constructed on project profitability and customer profitability analysis. Project profitability is approached starting from managing projects, continuing to project pricing process and concluding to project success. The empirical part of this study describes the Case Company’s project portfolio, and by means of quantitative analysis, the study describes how the characteristics of a project impact the project’s profitability. The findings indicate that it really makes a difference in project portfolio’s estimated and actual profitability when methods of installation and technical specifications are scrutinized. Implications on profitability are gathered into a risk assessment tool proposal.

Utilization of a Time Domain Simulator in the Technical and Economic Analysis of a Wind Turbine Electric Drive Train

The amount of installed wind power has been growing exponentially during the past ten years. As wind turbines have become a significant source of electrical energy, the interactions between the turbines and the electric power network need to be studied more thoroughly than before. Especially, the behavior of the turbines in fault situations is of prime importance; simply disconnecting all wind turbines from the network during a voltage drop is no longer acceptable, since this would contribute to a total network collapse. These requirements have been a contributor to the increased role of simulations in the study and design of the electric drive train of a wind turbine. When planning a wind power investment, the selection of the site and the turbine are crucial for the economic feasibility of the installation. Economic feasibility, on the other hand, is the factor that determines whether or not investment in wind power will continue, contributing to green electricity production and reduction of emissions. In the selection of the installation site and the turbine (siting and site matching), the properties of the electric drive train of the planned turbine have so far been generally not been taken into account. Additionally, although the loss minimization of some of the individual components of the drive train has been studied, the drive train as a whole has received less attention. Furthermore, as a wind turbine will typically operate at a power level lower than the nominal most of the time, efficiency analysis in the nominal operating point is not sufficient. This doctoral dissertation attempts to combine the two aforementioned areas of interest by studying the applicability of time domain simulations in the analysis of the economicfeasibility of a wind turbine. The utilization of a general-purpose time domain simulator, otherwise applied to the study of network interactions and control systems, in the economic analysis of the wind energy conversion system is studied. The main benefits of the simulation-based method over traditional methods based on analytic calculation of losses include the ability to reuse and recombine existing models, the ability to analyze interactions between the components and subsystems in the electric drive train (something which is impossible when considering different subsystems as independent blocks, as is commonly done in theanalytical calculation of efficiencies), the ability to analyze in a rather straightforward manner the effect of selections other than physical components, for example control algorithms, and the ability to verify assumptions of the effects of a particular design change on the efficiency of the whole system. Based on the work, it can be concluded that differences between two configurations can be seen in the economic performance with only minor modifications to the simulation models used in the network interaction and control method study. This eliminates the need ofdeveloping analytic expressions for losses and enables the study of the system as a whole instead of modeling it as series connection of independent blocks with no lossinterdependencies. Three example cases (site matching, component selection, control principle selection) are provided to illustrate the usage of the approach and analyze its performance.

Supply chain cost saving potential analysis

Target of this study was to examine the current supply chain with focus on external part and identify the cost potential areas which lie there. The goal was to evaluate the cost save potential and give estimate what would be required in order to realise it. Base data related to study was searched and examined with using company’s enterprise resource planning system. In case feasible two types of scenarios were built in order to describe the scale of save potential. First scenario was theoretical and achieving it would require further investments and second scenario was realistic approach where more limitations were taken into account. The results clearly show that there is high save potential in supply chain costs linked to balance between internal and external operations. Realising of it would require at least minor investments as current internal capacity is not on a level to fully absorb the additional volumes which are needed in order to realise the potential. This study can be used as a basis when starting new projects related to investment needs.

Venture capital investment on SME

This thesis studies venture capital investment on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The specific objective of the study is to test whether venture capitalists have a positive effect on SMEs. In addition effect of several other factors is studied in financial crisis. Used determinants are formulated based on three capital structure theories. The pecking order theory concerns favoring on financing source over another. The agency theory and the tradeoff theory concentrate on the search of optimal capital structure. The data of this study consist of financial statement data and results of corporate questionnaire. Regression analysis was used to find out the effects of several determinants. Regression models were formed based on the presented theories. SMEs with and without venture capitalists were considered separately. It was found that venture capitalists have a positive effect on SMEs. Although some results between SMEs with and without venture capitalists were mixed.

Investment risks in Russia: A Finnish perspective

Purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of Russia's economic environment changes in the total return indexes of Finnish companies. The research data consisted of Finnish publicly listed companies, which have made physical investments to Russia, and operating in the area. The study used six different variables to model the Russian operating environment. The data consists of total return indexes of Finnish companies. From those we calculated the monthly mean interval between timeline of 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009. Sample period is divided into two different parts. Variables impact on companies' total return indices is tested by regression analysis. By F-test we tested significance of model and squared coefficient correlation told us how much model explains from changes. Goodness of the β-coefficient is tested in the model by t-test. The research results shows that the Russian operating environment, or changes in which the active Finnish companies in total return indices. On partial sample periods results were not so significant.

Management of interdependency in project portfolio

Project management has evolved in recent decades. Project portfolio management, together with multi project management, is an emerging area in the project management field in practice, and correspondingly in academic research and forums. In multi project management, projects cannot be handled isolated from each other, as they often have interdependencies that have to be taken into account. If the interdependencies between projects are evaluated during the selection process, the success rate of the project portfolio is increased. Interdependencies can be human resources, technological, and/or market based. Despite of the fact that interdependency as a phenomenon has roots in the 1960s and is related to famous management theories, it has not been much studied, although in practice most companies use it to great extent. There exists some research on interdependency, but prior publications have not emphasized the phenomenon per se, because a practical orientation practitioner techniques prevails in the literature. This research applies the method triangulation, electronic surveys and multiple case study. The research concentrates on small to large companies in Estonia and Finland, mainly in construction, engineering, ICT, and machinery industries. The literature review reveals that interdependencies are deeply involved in R&D and innovation. Survey analysis shows that companies are aware of interdependency issues in general, but they i have lack of detailed knowledge to use it thoroughly. Empirical evidence also indicates that interdependency techniques influence the success rate and other efficiency aspects to different extents. There are a lot of similarities in interdependency related managerial issues in companies of varying sizes and countries in Northern Europe. Differences found in the study are for instance the fact that smaller companies face more difficulties in implementing and evaluating interdependency procedures. Country differences between Estonia and Finland stem from working solutions to manage interdependencies on a daily basis.historical and cultural reasons, such as the special features of a transition country compared to a mature country. An overview of the dominant problems, best practices, and commonly used techniques associated with interdependency is provided in the study. Empirical findings show that many interdependency techniques are not used in practice. A multiple case study was performed in the study to find out how interdependencies are managed in real life on a daily basis. The results show that interdependencies are mostly managed in an informal manner. A description of managing the interdependencies and implementation procedures is given. Interdependency procedures are hard to implement, especially in smaller companies. Companies have difficulties in implementing interdependency procedures and evaluating them. The study contains detailed results on how companies have implemented working solutions to manage interdependencies on a daily basis

Performance Comparison of Behavioral Finance -based Investment Strategies in the Finnish Stock Market 1996-2010

In this thesis traditional investment strategies (value and growth) are compared to modern investment strategies (momentum, contrarian and GARP) in terms of risk, performance and cumulative returns. Strategies are compared during time period reaching from 1996 to 2010 in the Finnish stock market. Used data includes all listed main list stocks, dividends and is adjusted in case of splits, and mergers and acquisitions. Strategies are tested using different holding periods (6, 12 and 36 months) and data is divided into tercile portfolios based on different ranking criteria. Contrarian and growth strategies are the only strategies with improved cumulative returns when longer holding periods are used. Momentum (52-week high price1) and GARP strategies based on short holding period have the best performance and contrarian and growth strategies the worst. Momentum strategies (52-week high price) along with short holding period contrarian strategies (52-week low price2) have the lowest risk. Strategies with the highest risk are both growth strategies and two momentum strategies (52-week low price). The empirical results support the efficiency of momentum, GARP and value strategies. The least efficient strategies are contrarian and growth strategies in terms of risk, performance and cumulative returns. Most strategies outperform the market portfolio in all three measures. 1 Stock ranking criterion (current price/52-week highest price) 2 Stock ranking criterion (current price/52-week lowest price)

Dynamic Ownership in Family Business System – A Portfolio Business Approach

Family businesses are among the longest-lived most prevalent institutions in the world and they are an important source of economic development and growth. Ownership is a key to the business life of the firm and also one main key in family business definition. There is only a little portfolio entrepreneurship or portfolio business research within family business context. The absence of empirical evidence on the long-term relationship between family ownership and portfolio development presents an important gap in the family business literature. This study deals with the family business ownership changes and the development of portfolios in the family business and it is positioned in to the conversation of family business, growth, ownership, management and strategy. This study contributes and expands the existing body of theory on family business and ownership. From the theoretical point of view this study combines insights from the fields of portfolio entrepreneurship, ownership, and family business and integrate them. This crossfertilization produces interesting empirical and theoretical findings that can constitute a basis for solid contributions to the understanding of ownership dynamics and portfolio entrepreneurship in family firms. The research strategy chosen for this study represents longitudinal, qualitative, hermeneutic, and deductive approaches.The empirical part of study is using a case study approach with embedded design, that is, multiple levels of analysis within a single study. The study consists of two cases and it begins with a pilot case which will form a preunderstanding on the phenomenon. Pilot case develops the methodology approach to build in the main case and the main case will deepen the understanding of the phenomenon. This study develops and tests a research method of family business portfolio development focusing on investigating how ownership changes are influencing to the family business structures over time. This study reveals the linkages between dimensions of ownership and how they give rise to portfolio business development within the context of the family business. The empirical results of the study suggest that family business ownership is dynamic and owners are using ownership as a tool for creating business portfolios.