Scenario-based traffic forecasts for the routes between the PENTA ports in 2020

Maritime transport is the foundation for trade in the Baltic Sea area. It represents over 15% of the world’s cargo traffic and it is predicted to increase by over 100% in the future. There are currently over 2,000 ships sailing on the Baltic Sea and both the number and the size of ships have been growing in recent years. Due to the importance of maritime traffic in the Baltic Sea Region, ports have to be ready to face future challenges and adapt to the changing operational environment. The companies within the transportation industry – in this context ports, shipowners and logistics companies – compete continuously and although the number of companies in the business is not particularly substantial because the products offered are very similar, other motives for managing the supply chain arise. The factors creating competitive advantage are often financial and related to cost efficiency, but geographical location, road infrastructure in the hinterland and vessel connections are among the most important factors. The PENTA project focuses on adding openness, transparency and sharing knowledge and information, so that the challenges of the future can be better addressed with regard to cooperation. This report presents three scenario-based traffic forecasts for routes between the PENTA ports in 2020. The chosen methodology is PESTE, in which the focus in on economic factors affecting future traffic flows. The report further analyses the findings and results of the first PENTA WP2 report “Drivers of demand in cargo and passenger traffic between PENTA ports” and utilises the same material, which was obtained through interviews and mail surveys.

Service offering classification for logistics services

This thesis studies the development of service offering model that creates added-value for customers in the field of logistics services. The study focusses on offering classification and structures of model. The purpose of model is to provide value-added solutions for customers and enable superior service experience. The aim of thesis is to define what customers expect from logistics solution provider and what value customers appreciate so greatly that they could invest in value-added services. Value propositions, costs structures of offerings and appropriate pricing methods are studied. First, literature review of creating solution business model and customer value is conducted. Customer value is found out with customer interviews and qualitative empiric data is used. To exploit expertise knowledge of logistics, innovation workshop tool is utilized. Customers and experts are involved in the design process of model. As a result of thesis, three-level value-added service offering model is created based on empiric and theoretical data. Offerings with value propositions are proposed and the level of model reflects the deepness of customer-provider relationship and the amount of added value. Performance efficiency improvements and cost savings create the most added value for customers. Value-based pricing methods, such as performance-based models are suggested to apply. Results indicate the interest of benefitting networks and partnership in field of logistics services. Networks development is proposed to be investigated further.

Designing sustainable industrial ecosystems : the case of a biogas-for-traffic solution

This thesis focuses on the development of sustainable industrial architectures for bioenergy based on the metaphors of industrial symbiosis and industrial ecosystems, which imply exchange of material and energy side-flows of various industries in order to improve sustainability of those industries on a system level. The studies on industrial symbiosis have been criticised for staying at the level of incremental changes by striving for cycling waste and by-flows of the industries ‘as is’ and leaving the underlying industry structures intact. Moreover, there has been articulated the need for interdisciplinary research on industrial ecosystems as well as the need to extend the management and business perspectives on industrial ecology. This thesis addresses this call by applying a business ecosystem and business model perspective on industrial symbiosis in order to produce knowledge on how industrial ecosystems can be developed that are sustainable environmentally and economically. A case of biogas business is explored and described in four research papers and an extended summary that form this thesis. Since the aim of the research was to produce a normative model for developing sustainable industrial ecosystems, the methodology applied in this research can be characterised as constructive and collaborative. A constructive research mode was required in order to expand the historical knowledge on industrial symbiosis development and business ecosystem development into the knowledge of what should be done, which is crucial for sustainability and the social change it requires. A collaborative research mode was employed through participating in a series of projects devoted to the development of a biogas-for-traffic industrial ecosystem. The results of the study showed that the development of material flow interconnections within industrial symbiosis is inseparable from larger business ecosystem restructuring. This included a shift in the logic of the biogas and traffic fuel industry and a subsequent development of a business ecosystem that would entail the principles of industrial symbiosis and localised energy production and consumption. Since a company perspective has been taken in this thesis, the role of an ecosystem integrator appeared as a crucial means to achieve the required industry restructuring. This, in turn, required the development of a modular and boundary-spanning business model that had a strong focus on establishing collaboration among ecosystem stakeholders and development of multiple local industrial ecosystems as part of business growth. As a result, the designed business model of the ecosystem integrator acquired the necessary flexibility in order to adjust to local conditions, which is crucial for establishing industrial symbiosis. This thesis presents a normative model for the development of a business model required for creating sustainable industrial ecosystems, which contributes to approaches at the policy-makers’ level, proposed earlier. Therefore, this study addresses the call for more research on the business level of industrial ecosystem formation and the implications for the business models of the involved actors. Moreover, the thesis increases the understanding of system innovation and innovation in business ecosystems by explicating how business model innovation can be the trigger for achieving more sustainable industry structures, such as those relying on industrial symbiosis.

Differential evolution based classification with pool of distances and aggregation operators

The objective of this thesis is to develop and generalize further the differential evolution based data classification method. For many years, evolutionary algorithms have been successfully applied to many classification tasks. Evolution algorithms are population based, stochastic search algorithms that mimic natural selection and genetics. Differential evolution is an evolutionary algorithm that has gained popularity because of its simplicity and good observed performance. In this thesis a differential evolution classifier with pool of distances is proposed, demonstrated and initially evaluated. The differential evolution classifier is a nearest prototype vector based classifier that applies a global optimization algorithm, differential evolution, to determine the optimal values for all free parameters of the classifier model during the training phase of the classifier. The differential evolution classifier applies the individually optimized distance measure for each new data set to be classified is generalized to cover a pool of distances. Instead of optimizing a single distance measure for the given data set, the selection of the optimal distance measure from a predefined pool of alternative measures is attempted systematically and automatically. Furthermore, instead of only selecting the optimal distance measure from a set of alternatives, an attempt is made to optimize the values of the possible control parameters related with the selected distance measure. Specifically, a pool of alternative distance measures is first created and then the differential evolution algorithm is applied to select the optimal distance measure that yields the highest classification accuracy with the current data. After determining the optimal distance measures for the given data set together with their optimal parameters, all determined distance measures are aggregated to form a single total distance measure. The total distance measure is applied to the final classification decisions. The actual classification process is still based on the nearest prototype vector principle; a sample belongs to the class represented by the nearest prototype vector when measured with the optimized total distance measure. During the training process the differential evolution algorithm determines the optimal class vectors, selects optimal distance metrics, and determines the optimal values for the free parameters of each selected distance measure. The results obtained with the above method confirm that the choice of distance measure is one of the most crucial factors for obtaining higher classification accuracy. The results also demonstrate that it is possible to build a classifier that is able to select the optimal distance measure for the given data set automatically and systematically. After finding optimal distance measures together with optimal parameters from the particular distance measure results are then aggregated to form a total distance, which will be used to form the deviation between the class vectors and samples and thus classify the samples. This thesis also discusses two types of aggregation operators, namely, ordered weighted averaging (OWA) based multi-distances and generalized ordered weighted averaging (GOWA). These aggregation operators were applied in this work to the aggregation of the normalized distance values. The results demonstrate that a proper combination of aggregation operator and weight generation scheme play an important role in obtaining good classification accuracy. The main outcomes of the work are the six new generalized versions of previous method called differential evolution classifier. All these DE classifier demonstrated good results in the classification tasks.

Biofuel handling, pretreatment and traffic use in China

This paper describes the development situation of biofuel in China and the research progress and application in transportation and aviation area, including several key technologies of biofuel production: biofuel pretreatment and handling. This paper is aiming to find the best storing, transmitting, feeding and pretreating methods of various materials, as well as a comparison among the advantages and disadvantages of different pretreatment methods, which is expected to reduce cost in production process and reach the maximized benefits. Meanwhile, a case study of one biomass fuel production factory in China is presented with evaluation and analysis on their technology application.

Aircraft tracking and classification with vhf passive bistatic radar

Since the times preceding the Second World War the subject of aircraft tracking has been a core interest to both military and non-military aviation. During subsequent years both technology and configuration of the radars allowed the users to deploy it in numerous fields, such as over-the-horizon radar, ballistic missile early warning systems or forward scatter fences. The latter one was arranged in a bistatic configuration. The bistatic radar has continuously re-emerged over the last eighty years for its intriguing capabilities and challenging configuration and formulation. The bistatic radar arrangement is used as the basis of all the analyzes presented in this work. The aircraft tracking method of VHF Doppler-only information, developed in the first part of this study, is solely based on Doppler frequency readings in relation to time instances of their appearance. The corresponding inverse problem is solved by utilising a multistatic radar scenario with two receivers and one transmitter and using their frequency readings as a base for aircraft trajectory estimation. The quality of the resulting trajectory is then compared with ground-truth information based on ADS-B data. The second part of the study deals with the developement of a method for instantaneous Doppler curve extraction from within a VHF time-frequency representation of the transmitted signal, with a three receivers and one transmitter configuration, based on a priori knowledge of the probability density function of the first order derivative of the Doppler shift, and on a system of blocks for identifying, classifying and predicting the Doppler signal. The extraction capabilities of this set-up are tested with a recorded TV signal and simulated synthetic spectrograms. Further analyzes are devoted to more comprehensive testing of the capabilities of the extraction method. Besides testing the method, the classification of aircraft is performed on the extracted Bistatic Radar Cross Section profiles and the correlation between them for different types of aircraft. In order to properly estimate the profiles, the ADS-B aircraft location information is adjusted based on extracted Doppler frequency and then used for Bistatic Radar Cross Section estimation. The classification is based on seven types of aircraft grouped by their size into three classes.

Networking Notch : regulation of Notch traffic and signaling crosstalk

Utvecklingen av flercelliga organismer är en mångfacetterad process som kräver kommunikation celler emellan. Under utvecklingen av en organism måste cellerna göra vissa val, vilket bestämmer riktningen för deras fortsatta utveckling. Utgående från dessa val erhåller cellerna egenskaper som är karaktäristiska för olika celltyper. Notch-signalräckan är en viktig reglerare av valet mellan olika cellöden. Notch-signalräckan aktiveras när Notch-receptorer som uttrycks på ytan av en cell binder till Notch-ligander som uttrycks på ytan av en annan närliggande cell. Denna avhandling belyser mekanismerna som reglerar omsättningen av såväl Notch-receptorer som -ligander till och från cellmembranen, samt ökar förståelsen för hur dessa mekanismer påverkar Notch-medierade cellöden i stamceller. Internalisering av Notch receptorer anses nödvändigt för fullständig aktivering av Notch-signalvägen. De bakomliggande molekylära mekanismerna är dock fortfarande oklara. Vi har upptäckt att atypiskt protein kinas Cζ (aPKCζ) reglerar internaliseringen av Notch-receptorer. aPKCζ fosforylerar Notch, vilket leder till receptorns internalisering, men effekten är beroende av receptorns signaleringsstatus. Vi visar att aPKCζ reglerar Notch-signaleringen och styr både neuroners och muskelcellers differentiering. Ytterligare har vi analyserat samspelet mellan cellskelettet och Notch-signalvägen. Våra resultat visar att intermediärfilamenten, en del av cellskelettet, är viktiga reglerare av Notch-signaleringen både under neuronal och vaskulär utveckling. Intermediärfilamenten vimentin och GFAP reglerar uttrycket av Notch-ligander vid cellmembranen i hjärnans stödceller, astrocyterna, och påverkar därmed neuronala stamcellers cellödesbeslut. Vimentin är även viktigt reglerare av Notch-signalräckan vid angiogenesen. Celler som saknar vimentin uppvisar avvikande Notch-signalering emedan möss som saknar vimentin påvisar en fördröjd utveckling av vaskulaturen under embryonalstadiet. ------------------------------------------------- Monisoluisten organismien kehittyminen on monimutkainen prosessi, joka vaatii viestintää solujen välillä. Kehittymisen aikana solut joutuvat tiettyjen valintojen eteen, mitkä tulevat määrittämään niiden erilaistumisen suunnan. Solut omaksuvat solutyypille ominaisia ominaisuuksia näihin valintoihin perustuen Notch-signalointireitti säätelee solujen erilaistumista eri suuntiin. Notch-signalointireitti aktivoituu, kun Notch-reseptori yhden solun pinnalla sitoo Notch-ligandin toisen, viereisen solun solukalvolla. Tutkimukseni lisää tuntemusta Notch-reseptoreiden ja ligandien solun sisäisestä liikennöinnistä ja sitä säätelevistä mekanismeista, sekä tämän säätelyn vaikutuksista kantasulojen erilaistumiseen. Notch-signalointireitin aktivoituminen vaatii reseptoreiden ja ligandien sisäistämisen solukalvolta, mutta taustalla olevat ja sisäistymistä säätelevät mekanismit ovat vielä epäselviä. Tutkimukseni osoittaa, että atyyppinen proteiinikinaasi Cζ (aPKCζ) säätelee Notch-reseptoreiden endosytoosia. Endosytoosin lopputulos riippuu siitä onko reseptori aktivoitunut ligandin välityksellä vai ei. Tuloksemme osoittavat aPKCζ säätelevän Notch-signalointia ja kontrolloivan sekä hermosolujen, että lihassolujen erilaistumista. Analysoimme myös Notch-signaloinnin ja solun tukirangan vuorovaikutuksia. Välikokoiset filamentit, jotka ovat osa tukirankaa, säätelevät Notch-signalointia neuronaalisen erilaistumisen sekä verisuonten uudismuodostumisen aikana. Vimentiini ja GFAP ovat välikokoisia säikeitä, jotka säätelevät Notch-ligandien ekspressiota astrosyyttien, eli aivojen hermotukisolujen solukalvolla. Vimentiini säätelee myös Notch-signalointireittiä angiogeneesin aikana. Vimentiiniä vailla olevilla soluilla ilmenee heikentynyttä Notch-signalointia, joka voidaan liittää hiirillä ilmenevään vimenttiinin puutteesta johtuvaan viivästyneeseen verisuonien kehitykseen.

Helsinki hub – new traffic flows and business networks

This thesis is the Logistics Development Forum's assignment and the work dealing with the development of the Port of Helsinki as part of Helsinki hub. The Forum aims to develop logistics efficiency through public-private co-operation and development of the port is clearly dependent on both factors. Freight volumes in the Port of Helsinki are the biggest single factor in hub and, therefore, the role of the port of the entire hub development is strong. The aim is to look at how the port will develop as a result of changes in the foreign trade of Finland and the Northern European logistics trends in 25 years time period. Work includes the current state analysis and scenario work. The analyses are intended to find out, which trends are the most important in the port volume development. The change and effect of trends is examined through scenarios based on current state. Based on the work, the structure of Finnish export industry and international demand are in the key role in the port volume development. There is significant difference between demands of Finnish exporting products in different export markets and the development between the markets has different impacts on the port volumes by mass and cargo type. On the other hand, the Finnish economy is stuck in a prolonged recession and competition between ports has become a significant factor in the individual port's volume development. Ecological valuesand regulations have changed the competitive landscape and maritime transport emissions reductions has become an important competitive factor for short routes in the Baltic Sea, such as in the link between Helsinki and Tallinn.