Notes on Emerging Technologies

This dissertation considers the impact of technology foresight in innovation within the context of a technology driven development. The main hypothesis made was that by using different methods of foresight in the industry level significant value could be created. The question was approached through a case study in portable fuel cell technology. The theoretical background of the study draws from Innovation, Product Development, Management of Technology, and Technology Foresight. The connection within the topics is made by analyzing foresight, not in a policy view as often done in Europe, but in a micro-level. Focusing mostly on how a technology driven development scenario could be analyzed. The study is based on a bibliometric, extrapolation and patent analysis within the context of a case study. In addition, a large two-year Delphi study was conducted. The study was finalized with a scenario work on the future possibilities of the case study technology. Original publications also consider several methodological issues. In the context of the case study, the study questions the practicality of establishing a portable fuel cell technology in Finland showing several impractical assumptions has been made. In a more conceptual level, the study makes notions on two underlying factors: policy-push technologies and growth of data. Policy-push questions in which level a policy effort towards a single technology is practical. The European foresight effort is more directed towards policy decisions in contrast to US foresight, which is to some extent corporate driven. Although the policy-based foresight has produced significant results in the European context, policy led efforts towards a single technology are challenging. Growth of data argues on the challenges produced by the large-scale application of quantitative measures of foresight. Bibliometric studies and trend extrapolations have been taken advantage of the increasing number of databases made available, and used these as the basis for forecasts. However, the relationship with actual development and quantitative evidence is still unproven.

Apple, Nokia and RIM – Rivalry and Co-operation between Three Mobile Phone Corporations

The purpose of this paper is to gather enough evidence to speculate the future of Nokia, Rim and Apple. The thesis goes over the history, current events and business model of each company. This paper includes differences between the companies and co-operation and rivalry, such as patent infringement cases. The study is limited to smartphones and their future. The result of this study is that Apple will continue its steady increase in market share, while Nokia will first decrease and after the launch of the Windows Phone it will rise again. RIM‟s result has not been as good as in past years and it has lost market share. The decrease of share price may lead to acquisition by a company interested in RIM technology.

Convergence in Industry Evolution

The objective of the thesis is to enhance understanding of the evolution of convergence. Previous research has shown that the technological interfaces between distinct industries are one of the major sources of new radical cross-industry innovations. Despite the fact that convergence in industry evolution has attracted a substantial managerial interest, the conceptual confusion within the field of convergence exists. Firstly, this study clarifies the convergence phenomenon and its impact to industry evolution. Secondly, the study creates novel patent analysis methods to analyze technological convergence and provide tools for anticipating the early stages of convergence. Overall the study combines the industry evolution perspective and the convergence view of industrial evolution. The theoretical background for the study consists of the industry life cycle theories, technology evolution, and technological trajectories. The study links several important concepts in analyzing industry evolution, technological discontinuities, path-dependency, technological interfaces as a source of industry transformation, and the evolutionary stagesof convergence. Based on reviewing the literature a generic understanding of industry transformation and industrial dynamics was generated. In the convergence studies, the theoretical basis is in the discussion of different convergence types and their impacts on industry evolution, and in anticipating and monitoring the stages of convergence. The study is divided in two parts. The first part gives a general overview, and the second part comprises eight research publications. Our case study is based historically on two very distinct industries of the paper and electronics companies as a test environment to evaluate the importance of emerging business sectors and technological convergence as a source of industry transformation. Both qualitative and quantitative research methodology are utilized. The results of this study reveal that technological convergence and complementary innovations from different fields have significant effect to the emerging new business sector formation. The patent-based indicators in the analysis of technological convergence can be utilized on analyzing technology competition, capability and competence development, knowledge accumulation, knowledge spill-overs, and technology-based industry transformation. The patent-based indicators can provide insights to the future competitive environment. Results and conclusions from empirical part seem not be in conflict with real observations in the industry.

Intellectual Property Management in a Small Company

Opinnäytetyö keskittyi kriittisiin tapahtumiin, joita on tullut yhtiön tai sen edeltävän yhtiön, joka oli Mobile Screen TV – 4 ALL, tekemien aikaisempien patenttihakemusten yhteydessä . Tutkimus vertasi ja evaluoi yhtiön aikaisemmin tekemien keksintöjen suojausta. Toisaalta opinnäytetyön päämäärä oli tutkia ja selvittää monitapaus-menetelmällä yhtiön aikaisempia keksintöjä ja miten aineettoman oikeuden suojaus toteutui prosessien eri vaiheissa. Tämä päättötyötutkielma vei loppuun asti erittäin suuren patenttien ja hyödyllisyysmallien hakemusten tutkimuksen. LH Communications Oy on tehnyt monia niistä, mutta tutkimus sisälsi myös joitakin kilpailijoiden hakemuksia. Tässä tutkimuksessa oli kaksi pääkysymystä. Miten pieni yhtiö voisi suojella heidän uusia ideoitaan ja keksintöjään ja myös samalla pitää yhtiön talouden hyvällä tasolla. Tämä tutkimus käytti The Critical Incidents Technique (CIT), joka keskittyy kriittisiin tapahtumiin, selvittääkseen sopivia menetelmiä pienelle yhtiölle siitä, miten suojella uusia ajatuksia, ideoita ja keksintöjä ja samanaikaisesti olla tuottava niiden kanssa. Tutkimuksemme käsitteli kaikenlaisia tarvittavia käytäntöjä pienessä yhtiössä ja päähuomio pienessä yhtiössä tulee olla omien keksintöjen suojaamisessa. Paras suojaus on tehdä patentteja, mutta se tulee maksamaan hyvin paljon koko tapahtumasarjan aikana.

Patenttien vaikutus suomalaisten pörssiyritysten markkina-arvoon - reaalioptiosovellutus

Tutkielman tavoitteena oli tutkia onko patenteilla positiivinen vaikutus yrityksen markkina-arvoon. Aihetta tutkittiin reaalioptionäkökulmasta: miten patentit voidaan nähdä reaalioptioiden ilmentymänä ja millainen vaikutus niillä on yrityksen suoriutumiseen. Lisäksi tutkittiin onko patenttien vaikutuksessa toimialakohtaisia eroja. Tavoitteena oli myös selvittää onko patenttien vaikutus erilainen talouden eri suhdanteissa. Empiriana tutkimuksessa olivat suomalaiset pörssiyritykset ja niiden Suomeen myönnetyt patentit. Tutkittavana ajanjaksona oli 2001–2010. Tutkimusongelmista johdettuja hypoteeseja testattiin regressioanalyysien avulla. Selitettävänä muuttujana oli yrityksen Tobin’s q ja selittävänä muuttujana yrityksen voimassa olleiden patenttien ja tasearvon suhdeluku. Kontrollimuuttujina käytettiin vuotta ja toimialaa. Tulokseksi saatiin, että patenteilla on ollut positiivinen vaikutus suomalaisten pörssiyritysten markkina-arvoon 2000-luvulla. Varsinkin teknologian ja perusmateriaalien toimialoilla yhteys oli vahvempi kuin muilla toimialoilla. Saadut tulokset ovat yhdenmukaisia aiempien tutkimusten kanssa. Aineiston erityispiirteet toivat tutkimukseen omat haasteensa, jotka vaikuttivat muun muassa toimialaryhmien muodostamiseen sekä makroekonomisen ympäristön merkityksen tutkimiseen.

Military crisis management in the next decade (2020-2030) : inducing consent or relying on compliance?

The most outstanding conceptual challenge of modern crisis management is the principle of consent. It is not a problem only at the operational level - it challenges the entire decision-making structures of crisis management operations. In post-cold war times and especially in the 21st century, there has been a transition from peacekeeping with limited size and scope towards large and complex peace operations. This shift has presented peace operations with a dilemma. How to balance between maintaining consent for peace operations, whilst being able to use military force to coerce those attempting to wreck peace processes? To address such a dilemma, this research aims to promote understanding, on what can be achieved by military crisis management operations (peace support operations) in the next decade. The research concentrates on the focal research question: Should military components induce consent or rely on the compliance of conflicting parties in crisis management operations of the next decade (2020 – 2030)? The focus is on military – political strategic level considerations, and especially on the time before political decisions to commit to a crisis management operation. This study does not focus on which actor or organisation should intervene. The framework of this thesis derives from the so called ‘peacebuilding space’, the scope of peace operations and spoiler theory. Feasibility of both peace enforcement and peacekeeping in countering future risk conditions are analysed in this framework. This future-orientated qualitative research uses the Delphi-method with a panel of national and international experts. Citation analysis supports identification of relevant reference material, which consists of contemporary literature, the Delphi-questionnaires and interviews. The research process followed three main stages. In the first stage, plausible future scenarios and risk conditions were identified with the Delphi-panel. In the second stage, operating environments for peace support operations were described and consequent hypotheses formulated. In the third stage, these hypotheses were tested on the Delphi-panel. The Delphi-panel is sufficiently wide and diverse to produce plausible yet different insights. The research design utilised specifically military crisis management and peace operations theories. This produced various and relevant normative considerations. Therefore, one may argue that this research; which is based on accepted contemporary theory, hypotheses derived thereof and utilising an expert panel, contributes to the realm of peace support operations. This research finds that some degree of peace enforcement will be feasible and necessary in at least the following risk conditions: failed governance; potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; vulnerability of strategic chokepoints and infrastructures in ungoverned spaces; as well as in territorial and extra-territorial border disputes. In addition, some form of peace enforcement is probably necessary in risk conditions pertaining to: extremism of marginalised groups; potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories; and interstate rivalry. Furthermore, this research finds that peacekeeping measures will be feasible and necessary in at least risk conditions pertaining to: potential spillover of ethnic, religious, ideological conflict; uncontrolled migration; consequences from environmental catastrophes or changes; territorial and extra-territorial border disputes; and potential disputes over previously uninhabited and resource-rich territories. These findings are all subject to both generic and case specific preconditions that must exist for a peace support operation. Some deductions could be derived from the research findings. Although some risk conditions may appear illogical, understanding the underlying logic of a conflict is fundamental to understanding transition in crisis management. Practitioners of crisis management should possess cognizance of such transition. They must understand how transition should occur from threat to safety, from conflict to stability – and so forth. Understanding transition is imperative for managing the dynamic evolution of preconditions, which begins at the outset of a peace support operation. Furthermore, it is pertinent that spoilers are defined from a peace process point of view. If spoilers are defined otherwise, it changes the nature of an operation towards war, where the logic is breaking the will of an enemy - and surrender. In peace support operations, the logic is different: actions towards spoilers are intended to cause transition towards consent - not defeat. Notwithstanding future developments, history continues to provide strategic education. However, the distinction is that the risk conditions occur in novel futures. Hence, lessons learned from the past should be fitted to the case at hand. This research shows compelling evidence that swaying between intervention optimism and pessimism is not substantiated. Both peace enforcement and peacekeeping are sine qua non for successful military crisis management in the next decade.

Tuulivoimateollisuuden tarkastelu patenttianalyysiä hyödyntäen

Työssä luodaan katsaus tuulivoiman käyttöön historiassa sekä tuulivoiman hyödyntämiseen sähköntuotantoon nykyaikaisessa yhteiskunnassa. Lisäksi esitellään modernin kolmilapaisen tuuliturbiinin tekniikkaa. Työssä tarkastellaan kolmen suuren tuulivoimaloita valmistavien yrityksien patentointiaktiivisutta aikavälillä 2000–2010 ja patenttien lukumäärässä, maantieteellisessä vaihtelussa, tyypissä ja luokissa esiintyviä trendejä. Näiden pohjalta luodaan kokonaiskuva tuulivoiman teollisuuden kehityksestä 2000-luvun alussa ja odotetuista tulevaisuuden näkymistä. Vuosituhannen vaihteen jälkeen patentointiaktiivisuus on kasvanut tuulivoimateknologiayrityksillä. Etenkin vuonna 2007 havaitaan piikki patenttien lukumäärässä. Patentointitoiminta on keskittynyt Eurooppaan, Pohjois-Amerikkaan sekä Kiinaan. Tuulivoimateknologian voidaan olettaa kehittyvän sekä koossa että kustannustehokkuudessa.

Commercialization of Modern Renewable Energy

The threat of global warming and its consequences are widely recognized, and the question of how to proceed with the long transition towards fossil fuel -neutral economies concerns many nations and people. At the same time the world’s primary energy use is predicted to increase significantly during the next decades as a result of global population and welfare increase. Improved energy efficiency and increased use of renewable energy sources in the world’s energy mix play important roles in the future energy production and consumption. The objective of this thesis is to study how novel renewable energy technologies, such as distributed small-scale bio-fueled combined heat and power production and wind power technologies could be commercialized efficiently. A wide array of attributes may contribute to the diffusion of new products. In general, the bioenergy and wind power technologies are in emerging phases, and the diffusion stage varies from country to country. The effects of firms’ technology choices, collaboration and alliances are studied in this thesis. Furthermore, the roles of national energy infrastructure and energy support schemes in the commercialization of new renewable energy products are explored. The empirical data is based on energy expert interviews, financial and patent data, and literature reviews of different case studies. The thesis comprises two parts. The first part provides an overview of the study, and the second part includes six research publications. The results reveal that small-scale bio-fueled combined heat and power production and wind power technologies are still in emerging phases in their life cycles, and energy support schemes are crucial in the market diffusion. The study contributes to earlier findings in the literature and industry by confirming that adequate energy policies and energy infrastructure are fundamental in the commercialization of novel renewable energy technologies. Firm-specific issues, including business relationships and new business models, and market-related issues will have a more significant role in the market penetration in the future, when the technologies mature and become competitive without political support schemes.

Patentointiaktiivisuuden muutos x86-prosessorivalmistajien keskuudessa vuosina 1985-2009 Case: Intel

Työssä tutkitaan x86-prosessorivalmistajien patentointiaktiivisuuden muutosta vuosina 1985 – 2009 Intelin kautta. Työn tavoitteena on selvittää syitä, jotka ovat johtaneet patentointiaktiivisuuden radikaaliin muutokseen toimialalla. Työssä esitellään patenttien tärkeys teknologiayrityksille ja miten patentointiaktiivisuus on muuttunut x86-prosessorivalmistajien keskuudessa. Työssä käsitellään patenttiteoriaa, esimerkiksi patenttijärjestelmää ja yrityksen patenttipolitiikkaa. Työssä käsitellään ei-valmistavia patenttitaloja ja luodaan katsaus niiden vaikutuksiin valmistaville yrityksille. Tämän jälkeen perehdytään yksityiskohtaisemmin teknologiajätti Inteliin. Työn tarkoitus on selvittää, onko toimialan patentointiaktiivisuus hidastumassa tai pysähtynyt. Työssä pyritään löytämään mahdollisia syitä Intelin patentointiaktiivisuuden muutokseen.

Integrating open articles with open data in the life sciences with Europe PubMed Central.

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Hands-On: Interlinking Institutional Repositories and Europe PubMed Central

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Enlighten: A suite of metrics and altmetrics

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Integration of JINR Information Resources

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

EPrints Imports via DOI and ORCID

Presentation at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014