A Bayesian Approach for Forecasting Heat Load in a District Heating System

The growing population in cities increases the energy demand and affects the environment by increasing carbon emissions. Information and communications technology solutions which enable energy optimization are needed to address this growing energy demand in cities and to reduce carbon emissions. District heating systems optimize the energy production by reusing waste energy with combined heat and power plants. Forecasting the heat load demand in residential buildings assists in optimizing energy production and consumption in a district heating system. However, the presence of a large number of factors such as weather forecast, district heating operational parameters and user behavioural parameters, make heat load forecasting a challenging task. This thesis proposes a probabilistic machine learning model using a Naive Bayes classifier, to forecast the hourly heat load demand for three residential buildings in the city of Skellefteå, Sweden over a period of winter and spring seasons. The district heating data collected from the sensors equipped at the residential buildings in Skellefteå, is utilized to build the Bayesian network to forecast the heat load demand for horizons of 1, 2, 3, 6 and 24 hours. The proposed model is validated by using four cases to study the influence of various parameters on the heat load forecast by carrying out trace driven analysis in Weka and GeNIe. Results show that current heat load consumption and outdoor temperature forecast are the two parameters with most influence on the heat load forecast. The proposed model achieves average accuracies of 81.23 % and 76.74 % for a forecast horizon of 1 hour in the three buildings for winter and spring seasons respectively. The model also achieves an average accuracy of 77.97 % for three buildings across both seasons for the forecast horizon of 1 hour by utilizing only 10 % of the training data. The results indicate that even a simple model like Naive Bayes classifier can forecast the heat load demand by utilizing less training data.

Making home rules for mother tongues : the legal implications of linguistic diversity in the design of autonomy regimes

Principen om nationalismen där det politiska och det nationella är samspelt kan vara av markant betydelse för uppbyggande av autonomiska regimer. Likaså tillåter decentralicering och delegering av befogenheter för språk och utbildning (officiellt erkännande av språk, standardisering av språk, undervisningsspråk och relaterade läroplaner) formning av identiteter inom dessa autonomiska regimer. Resultatet är en ofullkomlig cirkulär relation där språk, samfund och politiska institutioner ömsesidigt och kontinuerligt formar varandra: lingvistiskt mångfald prägar och formger autonomiska ordningar och vice-versa. De juridiska implikationerna av territoriella och icke-territoriella former av autonomi är dock av en annan art. Emedan territoriell autonomi bygger på idéen om ett eventuellt inkluderande hemland för lingvistiska grupper, vars vistelseort är avgörande, förstärker den icke-territoriella autonomin idéen om ett exclusivt samfund bestående av själv-identifierade medlemmar som är kapabla till självstyre oavsett territoriella gränser. Denna avhandling utgör an analys av sådana juridiska implikationer genom komparativa och institutionella analyser. Avhandlingen föreslår som resultat en serie av normativa och pragmatiska rekommendationer inriktade på att främja demokratiseringsprocesser i linje med principer om multikulturalism.

Experimentation on Wind Powered Hydraulic Heating System

It is common knowledge of the world’s dependency on fossil fuel for energy, its unsustainability on the long run and the changing trend towards renewable energy as an alternative energy source. This aims to cut down greenhouse gas emission and its impact on the rate of ecological and climatic change. Quite remarkably, wind energy has been one of many focus areas of renewable energy sources and has attracted lots of investment and technological advancement. The objective of this research is to explore wind energy and its application in household heating. This research aims at applying experimental approach in real time to study and verify a virtually simulated wind powered hydraulic house heating system. The hardware components comprise of an integrated hydraulic pump, flow control valve, hydraulic fluid and other hydraulic components. The system design and control applies hardware in-the-loop (HIL) simulation setup. Output signal from the semi-empirical turbine modelling controls the integrated motor to generate flow. Throttling the volume flow creates pressure drop across the valve and subsequently thermal power in the system to be outputted using a heat exchanger. Maximum thermal power is achieved by regulating valve orifice to achieve optimum system parameter. Savonius rotor is preferred for its low inertia, high starting torque and ease of design and maintenance characteristics, but lags in power efficiency. A prototype turbine design is used; with power output in range of practical Savonius turbine. The physical mechanism of the prototype turbine’s augmentation design is not known and will not be a focus in this study.

Breastfeeding preterm infant from the delivery ward via nicu to home

The aim of this study was to examine how to support breastfeeding of preterm infants immediately after birth in the delivery ward, during their hospital stay in a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU), and at home after hospital discharge. Specifically, the role of early physical contact, maternal breastfeeding attitude, and an internet-based peer support group were investigated. The delivery ward practices concerning the implementation of early physical contact between a mother and her infant admitted to a NICU were examined by a structured survey in two hospitals. An Internet-based, breastfeeding peer-support intervention for the mothers of preterm infants was developed and tested in a randomized controlled design with one year follow-up. The main outcomes were the duration of exclusive and overall breastfeeding, expressing milk, and maternal attitude. In addition, the perceptions of mothers of preterm infants were investigated by analyzing the peer-support group discussions with a qualitative approach. The implementation of early physical contact was different between the two hospitals studied and was based more on hospital routines than the physiological condition of the infant. Preterm infants, who were born before a gestational age (GA) of 32 weeks, were hardly ever allowed to have early contact with their mothers. Both, a higher GA and early physical contact predicted earlier initiation and increased frequency of breastfeeding in the NICU. A maternal breastfeeding-favorable attitude predicted increased frequency of breastfeeding in the NICU and also a longer duration of overall breastfeeding. The actual duration of breastfeeding was, however, shorter than the mothers intended in advance. The internet-based, peer-support intervention had no effect on the duration of breastfeeding, expressing milk, or maternal attitude. The participating mothers enjoyed the possibility of sharing their experiences of preterm infants with other mothers in similar situations. Some of the mothers also experienced being given useful advice for breastfeeding. Based on the mothers’ discussions, a process of breastfeeding preterm infants was created. This included some paradoxical elements in the NICU where, for example, breast milk was emphasized over breastfeeding and support in the hospital varied. Hospital discharge was a critical point, when the mothers faced breastfeeding in reality. Over time, the mothers assimilated their breastfeeding experience into part of being a mother. The care practices related to early physical contact in delivery wards need to be re-evaluated to allow more infants to have a moment with the mother. Maternal attitude could be screened prenatally and attitude-focused interventions developed. Breastfeeding support in the NICU should be standardized. Internet-based breastfeeding peer-support intervention was feasible but additional research is needed.

Developing asset management in district heating and cooling business in a large energy company

The purpose of this Master´s Thesis is to develop asset management and its practices in case company. District heating and cooling systems operated by case company around Finland, Sweden, Poland and the Baltics form an enormous-sized asset base where some parts are starting to reach their end of life-cycles. Large-sized asset renewal actions are under discussion and maintenance spending is increasing. Financially justified decisions in changing business environment are needed. Asset management is one of the most important concepts for production organization which operates with capital-intensive production assets. Organizations profitability is highly dependent on assets´ performance. Such assets, like district heating and cooling systems, should be utilized as efficiently as possible within their life-cycles but also maintained and renewed optimally. In this qualitative thesis, empirical interview study was conducted to describe the current situation on how the assets are managed in the case company and to examine the readiness to implement a new, risk-based solution. Asset management revealed to be a very well-known concept. From proposed risk-based asset management point of view, several key observations were made. It was seen as a suitable solution, but further development will be needed. Based on the need and findings, several key processes and frameworks were created and also tested with a case study. Assets` condition monitoring should be improved, which would have a positive impact on event probability assessment. Risk acceptance is also a thing to be discussed further. When the evaluation becomes fluent in single investment cases, portfolio-level expansion should be considered and started. As a result, thesis proposes a solution how risk-based asset management could be performed practically in a capital-intensive case company in order to optimize the maintenance spending in a long run. Created practical framework is made universal: similar principles can be applied into multiple cases in case company but also in other energy companies. Risk-based asset management`s benefits could be utilized best in portfolio-level optimization where the capital would be invested to the most important objects from total risk point of view. Eventually, such approach would allow case company to optimize capital spending in a situation where funds are not adequate to cover all the mandatory needs and prioritization between the investment alternatives will truly be needed.

POLITICAL RISK IN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

Russia approved ambitious reform plan for the electricity sector in 2001 including privatisation of the country’s huge thermal generation assets. So far the sector had suffered from power shortages, aging infrastructure, substantial electricity losses, and weak productivity and profitability numbers. There was obvious need for foreign investments and technologies. The reform was rather successful; the generation assets were privatised in auctions in 2007-2008 and three European energy companies, E.On, Enel and Fortum, invested in and obtained together over 10% of the Russian production assets. The novelty of these foreign investments serves unique object for the study. The political risk is involved in the FDI due to the industry’s social and economic importance. The research’s objective was to identify and analyse the political risk that foreign investors face in the Russian electricity sector. The research had qualitative study method and the empirical data was collected by interviewing. The research’s theoretical framework was based on the existing political risk theories and it focused to understand the Russian government in relation to the country’s stability and define both macro-level and micro-level sources of political risk for the foreign direct investments in the sector. The research concludes that the centralised and obscure political decision-making, economic constriction, high level of governmental control in economy and corruption form the country’s internal macro-level risk sources for the foreign investors in the sector. Additionally the retribution due to the companies’ home country actions, possible violent confrontations at the Russian borders and the currency instability are externally originated risk sources. In the electricity industry there is risk of tightened governmental control and increased regulation and taxation. Similarly the company-level risk sources link to the unreformed heating sector, bargaining with the authorities, diplomatic stress between host and home countries and to companies and government’s divergent perspective for the profit-making. The research stresses the foreign companies’ ability to cope with the characteristics of Russian political environment. In addition to frequent political and market risk assessment, the companies need to focus on currency protection against rouble’s rate fluctuation and actively build good company-citizenship in the country. Good relationship is needed with the Russian political authorities. The political risk identification and the research’s conclusive framework also enable political risk study assessments for other industries in Russia

Home Made Cars: An insight on Consumer Ethnocentrism – Case Saab

Saab outstands in the history of the Finnish car manufacturing. This is not only due to that these cars have been manufactured in Finland more than other passenger vehicles altogether. Finns also have a special emotional attachment to the “Finnish Saabs”. Findings from previous studies show that consumers connect cars well to the origin of the brand (COB). They are however rarely aware of the Country of Manufacturing (COM). Domestic brands are often popular in the COB, but research from situations in which the domestic origin is limited to the COM is rare. The case of this study is a phenomenon, in which the products origin is two dimensional and divided into domestic COM and foreign COB. The aim is to understand the phenomenon’s effect on consumer behavior. The research problem is approached with two sub questions: • Which country do consumers perceive as the origin country of the car? • What is the role of this origin in the consumers’ product perception and purchasing decision of the car? The theoretical framework of this study applies previous findings of two areas of interest: Country of Origin effect and Consumer Ethnocentrism. This is followed by feasibility studies that present and discuss the history and current state of Finnish car manufacturing. Based on the findings of earlier stages of the study, the role of the domestic COM on consumer behavior is presumed high. This expectation is confirmed by the experts and also by the first consumer respondent, who states domestic origin having been the main motivation to his car choice. All further consumer respondents do however not connect Saab to the home country, but discuss it as a Nordic car. This unexpected finding means that they do not perceive the origin to be neither the COM nor COB, but a geographical area that includes both countries. In other words, consumers have widened their in-group in a way that is in this thesis explained with reference group theory. The consumers’ perceived origin of the car is in this research found to be an important factor to the consumers’ product perception and purchasing decision. Being fit for the yields of the local environment is discovered to have been the most important factor to Finnish consumers purchasing choice of a Saab and the Nordic origin has been an indicator of this fit to them.