Reaalioptioajattelu tutkimus- ja tuotekehityshankkeita arvioitaessa

The exploitation of real option analysis and real options reasoning to the value of research and development programs was studied in the context of two companies listed and operating in Finland. The companies saw real option analysis as a complex tool to be used to value research and development programs. Materials which were analyzed by qualitative methods were collected using inquiries and interviews. Real options reasoning observed to be more feasible to analyze research and development programs lasting for a couple of years than real option analysis. Where an uncertain investment environment prevailed real options reasoning offer a strategic tool to the company and enable uniform evaluation of research and development programs. Real options reasoning offer a possibility to the companies to systematize and rationalize the management and valuation of technology options.

Epävarmuuden mallintaminen investointilaskelmissa ja irtautumispäätöksen ajoittaminen: Case Paroc

Tässä diplomityössä on tutkittu epävarmuuden mallintamista investointilaskelmissa. Kirjallisuuden perusteella luotiin prosessimalli, jolla voidaan strukturoidusti tehdä yritysinvestointi- tai yritysirtaantumispäätös. Malli koostuu neljästä päävaiheesta, mutta pääpainopiste mallissa on laskentamenetelmissä. Luotua prosessimallia sekä erityisesti laskentamenetelmiä on sovellettu yritysesimerkin avulla. Epävarmuuden mallintamisongelmaa on käsitelty sekä perinteisten klassillisten investointiteorioiden että reaalioptioajatteluun pohjautuvien menetelmien avulla. Reaalioptioteoriaan perustuvien menetelmien avulla voidaan ottaa huomioon tulevat epävarmuudet ja päätöksentekomahdollisuudet. Perinteisten reaalioptioteorioiden käytännön elämän vastaisten taustaoletuksien vuoksi tutkittiin erityisesti uusimpia malleja. Diplomityössä yritysesimerkiksi valittiin Paroc Group, jonka yritysjärjestelytilannetta tutkittiin sen nykyisen omistajan eli pankin näkökulmasta. Diplomityön yhtenä keskeisenä tavoitteena oli selvittää, että kannattaako pankin myydä yhtiö tämän hetkisellä markkinahinnalla vai odottaa parempaa myyntiajankohtaa.

Experiences in using a structured method in finding and defining new innovations: the strategic options approach

Investment decision-making on far-reaching innovation ideas is one of the key challenges practitioners and academics face in the field of innovation management. However, the management practices and theories strongly rely on evaluation systems that do not fit in well with this setting. These systems and practices normally cannot capture the value of future opportunities under high uncertainty because they ignore the firm’s potential for growth and flexibility. Real options theory and options-based methods have been offered as a solution to facilitate decision-making on highly uncertain investment objects. Much of the uncertainty inherent in these investment objects is attributable to unknown future events. In this setting, real options theory and methods have faced some challenges. First, the theory and its applications have largely been limited to market-priced real assets. Second, the options perspective has not proved as useful as anticipated because the tools it offers are perceived to be too complicated for managerial use. Third, there are challenges related to the type of uncertainty existing real options methods can handle: they are primarily limited to parametric uncertainty. Nevertheless, the theory is considered promising in the context of far-reaching and strategically important innovation ideas. The objective of this dissertation is to clarify the potential of options-based methodology in the identification of innovation opportunities. The constructive research approach gives new insights into the development potential of real options theory under non-parametric and closeto- radical uncertainty. The distinction between real options and strategic options is presented as an explanans for the discovered limitations of the theory. The findings offer managers a new means of assessing future innovation ideas based on the frameworks constructed during the course of the study.

Rocking the Euro boat: scheduled market announcements' effects on Euro implied volatility

The purpose of this thesis is to investigate scheduled market announcements’ effects on Euro implied volatility. Timeline selected for this study ranges from 2005 to 2009. The method chosen is so-called event study approach, in which five days prior to a news announcement stand for a pre-event period, and five days after the announcement form a post-event period. Statistical research method employed is Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test, which examines two evenly-sized distributions’ equality, in this case the distributions being the pre- and post-event periods. Observations are based on daily data of US dollar nominated Euro at-the-money call options. Research results partially back up previous literature’s view of uncertainty increasing prior to the news announcement. After the exact contents of the news is public, uncertainty levels measured by implied volatility tend to lower.

ERP Systems as Investments: Analysing Costs vs. Benefits

An ERP system investment analysis method using a Fuzzy Pay-Off approach for Real Option valuation is examined. It is studied, how the investment can be incrementally adopted and analyzed as a compounding Real Option model. The modeling allows follow-up. IS system development model COCOMO is presented as an example for investment analysis. The thesis presents the usage of Real Options as an alternative for the valuation of an investment. An idea is presented to use a continuous investment follow-up during the investment. This analysis can be performed using Real Options. As a tool for the analysis, the Fuzzy Pay-Off method is presented as an alternative for investment valuation.

Value of Information Logistics Integration in Digital Business Ecosystem

Digital business ecosystems (DBE) are becoming an increasingly popular concept for modelling and building distributed systems in heterogeneous, decentralized and open environments. Information- and communication technology (ICT) enabled business solutions have created an opportunity for automated business relations and transactions. The deployment of ICT in business-to-business (B2B) integration seeks to improve competitiveness by establishing real-time information and offering better information visibility to business ecosystem actors. The products, components and raw material flows in supply chains are traditionally studied in logistics research. In this study, we expand the research to cover the processes parallel to the service and information flows as information logistics integration. In this thesis, we show how better integration and automation of information flows enhance the speed of processes and, thus, provide cost savings and other benefits for organizations. Investments in DBE are intended to add value through business automation and are key decisions in building up information logistics integration. Business solutions that build on automation are important sources of value in networks that promote and support business relations and transactions. Value is created through improved productivity and effectiveness when new, more efficient collaboration methods are discovered and integrated into DBE. Organizations, business networks and collaborations, even with competitors, form DBE in which information logistics integration has a significant role as a value driver. However, traditional economic and computing theories do not focus on digital business ecosystems as a separate form of organization, and they do not provide conceptual frameworks that can be used to explore digital business ecosystems as value drivers—combined internal management and external coordination mechanisms for information logistics integration are not the current practice of a company’s strategic process. In this thesis, we have developed and tested a framework to explore the digital business ecosystems developed and a coordination model for digital business ecosystem integration; moreover, we have analysed the value of information logistics integration. The research is based on a case study and on mixed methods, in which we use the Delphi method and Internetbased tools for idea generation and development. We conducted many interviews with key experts, which we recoded, transcribed and coded to find success factors. Qualitative analyses were based on a Monte Carlo simulation, which sought cost savings, and Real Option Valuation, which sought an optimal investment program for the ecosystem level. This study provides valuable knowledge regarding information logistics integration by utilizing a suitable business process information model for collaboration. An information model is based on the business process scenarios and on detailed transactions for the mapping and automation of product, service and information flows. The research results illustrate the current cap of understanding information logistics integration in a digital business ecosystem. Based on success factors, we were able to illustrate how specific coordination mechanisms related to network management and orchestration could be designed. We also pointed out the potential of information logistics integration in value creation. With the help of global standardization experts, we utilized the design of the core information model for B2B integration. We built this quantitative analysis by using the Monte Carlo-based simulation model and the Real Option Value model. This research covers relevant new research disciplines, such as information logistics integration and digital business ecosystems, in which the current literature needs to be improved. This research was executed by high-level experts and managers responsible for global business network B2B integration. However, the research was dominated by one industry domain, and therefore a more comprehensive exploration should be undertaken to cover a larger population of business sectors. Based on this research, the new quantitative survey could provide new possibilities to examine information logistics integration in digital business ecosystems. The value activities indicate that further studies should continue, especially with regard to the collaboration issues on integration, focusing on a user-centric approach. We should better understand how real-time information supports customer value creation by imbedding the information into the lifetime value of products and services. The aim of this research was to build competitive advantage through B2B integration to support a real-time economy. For practitioners, this research created several tools and concepts to improve value activities, information logistics integration design and management and orchestration models. Based on the results, the companies were able to better understand the formulation of the digital business ecosystem and the importance of joint efforts in collaboration. However, the challenge of incorporating this new knowledge into strategic processes in a multi-stakeholder environment remains. This challenge has been noted, and new projects have been established in pursuit of a real-time economy.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.

Strategic investment appraisal; extended real options approach

Tutkielma keskittyy lisäämään investointiarviointiprosessien rationaalisuutta strategisten investointien arvioinnissa duopoli- / oligopolimarkkinoilla. Tutkielman päätavoitteena on selvittää kuinka peliteorialla laajennettu reaalioptioperusteinen investointien arviointimenetelmä, laajennettu reaalioptiokehikko, voisi mahdollisesti parantaa analyysien tarkkuutta. Tutkimus lähestyy ongelmaa investoinnin ajoituksen sekä todellisten investoinnin arvoattribuuttien riippuvuuksien kautta. Laajennettu reaalioptiokehikko on investointien analysointi- ja johtamistyökalu, joka tarjoaa osittain rajoitetun (sisältää tällä hetkellä ainoastaan parametrisen ja peliteoreettisen epävarmuuden) optimaalisen arvovälin investoinnin todellisesta arvosta. Kehikossa, ROA kartoittaa mahdolliset strategiset hyödyt tunnistamalla investointiinliittyvät eri optiot ja epävarmuudet, peliteoria korostaa ympäristön luomia paineita investointiin liittyvän epävarmuuden hallitsemisessa. Laajennettu reaalioptiokehikko tarjoaa rationaalisemman arvion strategisen investoinnin arvosta, koska se yhdistää johdonmukaisemmin option toteutuksen ja siten myös optioiden aika-arvon, yrityksen todellisiin rajoitettuihin (rajoituksena muiden markkinatoimijoiden toimet) polkuriippuvaisiin kyvykkyyksiin.

RTOS Framework for Real-Time Control System

This thesis is done as a complementary part for the active magnet bearing (AMB) control software development project in Lappeenranta University of Technology. The main focus of the thesis is to examine an idea of a real-time operating system (RTOS) framework that operates in a dedicated digital signal processor (DSP) environment. General use real-time operating systems do not necessarily provide sufficient platform for periodic control algorithm utilisation. In addition, application program interfaces found in real-time operating systems are commonly non-existent or provided as chip-support libraries, thus hindering platform independent software development. Hence, two divergent real-time operating systems and additional periodic extension software with the framework design are examined to find solutions for the research problems. The research is discharged by; tracing the selected real-time operating system, formulating requirements for the system, and designing the real-time operating system framework (OSFW). The OSFW is formed by programming the framework and conjoining the outcome with the RTOS and the periodic extension. The system is tested and functionality of the software is evaluated in theoretical context of the Rate Monotonic Scheduling (RMS) theory. The performance of the OSFW and substance of the approach are discussed in contrast to the research theme. The findings of the thesis demonstrates that the forged real-time operating system framework is a viable groundwork solution for periodic control applications.

Jatkuvan äänitehojakautuman algoritmi pitkien käytävien äänikenttien mallintamiseen

JÄKÄLA-algoritmi (Jatkuvan Äänitehojakautuman algoritmi Käytävien Äänikenttien LAskentaan) ja sen NUMO- ja APPRO-laskentayhtälöt perustuvat käytävällä olevan todellisen äänilähteen kuvalähteiden symmetriaan. NUMO on algoritmin numeerisen ratkaisun ja APPRO likiarvoratkaisun laskentayhtälö. Algoritmia johdettaessa oletettiin, että absorptiomateriaali oli jakautunut tasaisesti käytävän ääntä heijastaville pinnoille. Suorakaiteen muotoisen käytävän kuvalähdetason muunto jatkuvaksi äänitehojakautumaksi sisältää kolme muokkausvaihetta. Aluksi suorakaiteen kuvalähdetaso muunnetaan neliön muotoiseksi. Seuraavaksi neliön muotoisen kuvalähdetason samanarvoiset kuvalähteet siirretään koordinaattiakselille diskreetiksi kuvalähdejonoksi. Lopuksi kuvalähdejono muunnetaan jatkuvaksi äänitehojakautumaksi, jolloin käytävän vastaanottopisteen äänenpainetaso voidaan laskea integroimalla jatkuvan äänitehojakautuman yli. JÄKÄLA-algoritmin validiteetin toteamiseksi käytettiin testattua kaupallista AKURI-ohjelmaa. AKURI-ohjelma antoi myös hyvän käsityksen siitä, miten NUMO- ja APPRO-yhtälöillä lasketut arvot mahdollisesti eroavat todellisilla käytävillä mitatuista arvoista. JÄKÄLA-algoritmin NUMO- ja APPRO-yhtälöitä testattiin myös vertaamalla niiden antamia tuloksia kolmen erityyppisen käytävän äänenpainetasomittauksiin. Tässä tutkimuksessa on osoitettu, että akustisen kuvateorian pohjalta on mahdollista johtaa laskenta-algoritmi, jota voidaan soveltaa pitkien käytävien äänikenttien pika-arvioinnissa paikan päällä. Sekä teoreettinen laskenta että käytännön äänenpainetasomittaukset todellisilla käytävillä osoittivat, että JÄKÄLA-algoritmin yhtälöiden ennustustarkkuus oli erinomainen ideaalikäytävillä ja hyvä niillä todellisilla käytävillä, joilla ei ollut ääntä heijastavia rakenteita. NUMO- ja APPRO-yhtälöt näyttäisivät toimivan hyvin käytävillä, joiden poikkileikkaus oli lähes neliön muotoinen ja joissa pintojen suurin absorptiokerroin oli korkeintaan kymmenen kertaa pienintä absorptiokerrointa suurempi. NUMO- ja APPRO-yhtälöiden suurin puute on, etteivät ne ota huomioon pintojen erilaisia absorptiokertoimia eivätkä esineistä heijastuvia ääniä. NUMO- ja APPRO- laskentayhtälöt poikkesivat mitatuista arvoista eniten käytävillä, joilla kahden vastakkaisen pinnan absorptiokerroin oli hyvin suuri ja toisen pintaparin hyvin pieni, ja käytävillä, joissa oli massiivisia, ääntä heijastavia pilareita ja palkkeja. JÄKÄLA-algoritmin NUMO- ja APPRO-yhtälöt antoivat tutkituilla käytävillä kuitenkin selvästi tarkempia arvoja kuin Kuttruffin likiarvoyhtälö ja tilastollisen huoneakustiikan perusyhtälö. JÄKÄLA-algoritmin laskentatarkkuutta on testattu vain neljällä todellisella käytävällä. Algoritmin kehittämiseksi tulisi jatkossa käytävän vastakkaisia pintoja ja niiden absorptiokertoimia käsitellä laskennassa pareittain. Algoritmin validiteetin varmistamiseksi on mittauksia tehtävä lisää käytävillä, joiden absorptiomateriaalien jakautumat poikkeavat toisistaan.

Advanced analysis and design methods for preparative chromatographic separation processes

Preparative liquid chromatography is one of the most selective separation techniques in the fine chemical, pharmaceutical, and food industries. Several process concepts have been developed and applied for improving the performance of classical batch chromatography. The most powerful approaches include various single-column recycling schemes, counter-current and cross-current multi-column setups, and hybrid processes where chromatography is coupled with other unit operations such as crystallization, chemical reactor, and/or solvent removal unit. To fully utilize the potential of stand-alone and integrated chromatographic processes, efficient methods for selecting the best process alternative as well as optimal operating conditions are needed. In this thesis, a unified method is developed for analysis and design of the following singlecolumn fixed bed processes and corresponding cross-current schemes: (1) batch chromatography, (2) batch chromatography with an integrated solvent removal unit, (3) mixed-recycle steady state recycling chromatography (SSR), and (4) mixed-recycle steady state recycling chromatography with solvent removal from fresh feed, recycle fraction, or column feed (SSR–SR). The method is based on the equilibrium theory of chromatography with an assumption of negligible mass transfer resistance and axial dispersion. The design criteria are given in general, dimensionless form that is formally analogous to that applied widely in the so called triangle theory of counter-current multi-column chromatography. Analytical design equations are derived for binary systems that follow competitive Langmuir adsorption isotherm model. For this purpose, the existing analytic solution of the ideal model of chromatography for binary Langmuir mixtures is completed by deriving missing explicit equations for the height and location of the pure first component shock in the case of a small feed pulse. It is thus shown that the entire chromatographic cycle at the column outlet can be expressed in closed-form. The developed design method allows predicting the feasible range of operating parameters that lead to desired product purities. It can be applied for the calculation of first estimates of optimal operating conditions, the analysis of process robustness, and the early-stage evaluation of different process alternatives. The design method is utilized to analyse the possibility to enhance the performance of conventional SSR chromatography by integrating it with a solvent removal unit. It is shown that the amount of fresh feed processed during a chromatographic cycle and thus the productivity of SSR process can be improved by removing solvent. The maximum solvent removal capacity depends on the location of the solvent removal unit and the physical solvent removal constraints, such as solubility, viscosity, and/or osmotic pressure limits. Usually, the most flexible option is to remove solvent from the column feed. Applicability of the equilibrium design for real, non-ideal separation problems is evaluated by means of numerical simulations. Due to assumption of infinite column efficiency, the developed design method is most applicable for high performance systems where thermodynamic effects are predominant, while significant deviations are observed under highly non-ideal conditions. The findings based on the equilibrium theory are applied to develop a shortcut approach for the design of chromatographic separation processes under strongly non-ideal conditions with significant dispersive effects. The method is based on a simple procedure applied to a single conventional chromatogram. Applicability of the approach for the design of batch and counter-current simulated moving bed processes is evaluated with case studies. It is shown that the shortcut approach works the better the higher the column efficiency and the lower the purity constraints are.

Real-time simulation of multibody systems with applications for working mobile vehicles

This dissertation describes an approach for developing a real-time simulation for working mobile vehicles based on multibody modeling. The use of multibody modeling allows comprehensive description of the constrained motion of the mechanical systems involved and permits real-time solving of the equations of motion. By carefully selecting the multibody formulation method to be used, it is possible to increase the accuracy of the multibody model while at the same time solving equations of motion in real-time. In this study, a multibody procedure based on semi-recursive and augmented Lagrangian methods for real-time dynamic simulation application is studied in detail. In the semirecursive approach, a velocity transformation matrix is introduced to describe the dependent coordinates into relative (joint) coordinates, which reduces the size of the generalized coordinates. The augmented Lagrangian method is based on usage of global coordinates and, in that method, constraints are accounted using an iterative process. A multibody system can be modelled as either rigid or flexible bodies. When using flexible bodies, the system can be described using a floating frame of reference formulation. In this method, the deformation mode needed can be obtained from the finite element model. As the finite element model typically involves large number of degrees of freedom, reduced number of deformation modes can be obtained by employing model order reduction method such as Guyan reduction, Craig-Bampton method and Krylov subspace as shown in this study The constrained motion of the working mobile vehicles is actuated by the force from the hydraulic actuator. In this study, the hydraulic system is modeled using lumped fluid theory, in which the hydraulic circuit is divided into volumes. In this approach, the pressure wave propagation in the hoses and pipes is neglected. The contact modeling is divided into two stages: contact detection and contact response. Contact detection determines when and where the contact occurs, and contact response provides the force acting at the collision point. The friction between tire and ground is modelled using the LuGre friction model, which describes the frictional force between two surfaces. Typically, the equations of motion are solved in the full matrices format, where the sparsity of the matrices is not considered. Increasing the number of bodies and constraint equations leads to the system matrices becoming large and sparse in structure. To increase the computational efficiency, a technique for solution of sparse matrices is proposed in this dissertation and its implementation demonstrated. To assess the computing efficiency, augmented Lagrangian and semi-recursive methods are implemented employing a sparse matrix technique. From the numerical example, the results show that the proposed approach is applicable and produced appropriate results within the real-time period.