Methods for the analysis of two dimensional measurement data of paper web

This work is devoted to the problem of reconstructing the basis weight structure at paper web with black{box techniques. The data that is analyzed comes from a real paper machine and is collected by an o®-line scanner. The principal mathematical tool used in this work is Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) modelling. When coupled with the Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT), it gives a very flexible and interesting tool for analyzing properties of the paper web. Both ARMA and DFT are independently used to represent the given signal in a simplified version of our algorithm, but the final goal is to combine the two together. Ljung-Box Q-statistic lack-of-fit test combined with the Root Mean Squared Error coefficient gives a tool to separate significant signals from noise.

Competitor Analysis in a Finnish Forest Industry Company

Työn tavoitteena oli analysoida yhden metsäteollisuusyrityksen tuotantolaitosta; sen heikkouksia ja vahvuuksia sekä määrittää tarvittavat kilpailukeinot. Työ perustuu Porterin kilpailija-analyysin viitekehykseen. Tarvittava kilpailijatieto on kerätty pääosin julkisista lähteistä, yrityksen tietokannoista, ja työntekijöiltä sekä tuotetestauksella. Kilpailijan analysointi koostuu lähinnä kilpailijan tuotantoresurssien, palveluiden ja tuotteiden analysoinnista. Lisäksi työssä käydään läpi kilpailijan strategiaa ja tavoitteita sekä kilpailijan olettamuksia itsestään ja kilpailijoistaan. Ennen varsinaista kilpailija-analyysia työssä tutustutaan metsäteollisuuden kasvuodotuksiin ja tulevaisuuden markkinatrendeihin, joita hyödynnetään johtopäätöksissä. Vaikkakin kilpailija keskittyy eri loppukäyttösegmentille kuin tutkimuksen teettänyt yritys, on se varteenotettava kilpailija tiettyjen tuoteominaisuuksien ansiosta. Kuitenkaan nykyisellä palvelutasolla ja resursseilla kilpailija ei ole tällä hetkellä suuri uhka yritykselle. Sen vuoksi toimenpide-ehdotukset ovat vähäiset ja liittyvät lähinnä markkinoinnillisiin näkökohtiin.

Colligation and Cross Moment-Based Approaches for Independent Component Analysis

Diplomityössä on käsitelty uudenlaisia menetelmiä riippumattomien komponenttien analyysiin(ICA): Menetelmät perustuvat colligaatioon ja cross-momenttiin. Colligaatio menetelmä perustuu painojen colligaatioon. Menetelmässä on käytetty kahden tyyppisiä todennäköisyysjakaumia yhden sijasta joka perustuu yleiseen itsenäisyyden kriteeriin. Työssä on käytetty colligaatio lähestymistapaa kahdella asymptoottisella esityksellä. Gram-Charlie ja Edgeworth laajennuksia käytetty arvioimaan todennäköisyyksiä näissä menetelmissä. Työssä on myös käytetty cross-momentti menetelmää joka perustuu neljännen asteen cross-momenttiin. Menetelmä on hyvin samankaltainen FastICA algoritmin kanssa. Molempia menetelmiä on tarkasteltu lineaarisella kahden itsenäisen muuttajan sekoituksella. Lähtö signaalit ja sekoitetut matriisit ovattuntemattomia signaali lähteiden määrää lukuunottamatta. Työssä on vertailtu colligaatio menetelmään ja sen modifikaatioita FastICA:an ja JADE:en. Työssä on myös tehty vertailu analyysi suorituskyvyn ja keskusprosessori ajan suhteen cross-momenttiin perustuvien menetelmien, FastICA:n ja JADE:n useiden sekoitettujen parien kanssa.

Offering Analysis in New Product Launch and Sales Planning

This Master's Thesis has been written for Stora Enso Flexible Packaging Papers business unit. In the North-American mills, the business unit has developed a range of new flexible packaging paper grades. The Master's Thesis researches opportunities for sales of these new flexible packaging papers in selected Western-European markets. This study consists of theoretical and empirical part. Theoretical part presents supply chain of flexible packaging, discovering of customer requirements, concept of an offering, general market analysis, customer analysis and basis for sales planning. Empirical part includes preliminary market analysis based on secondary sources, results of lead user interviews and conclusions and recommendations. Potential customers' technical and commercial requirements were found and these were compared to current Stora Enso Flexible Packaging Papers offering. Also a list of potential new customers was made and sales action suggestions were presented in order to gain new accounts.

Railway Wagon Market Analysis and New Multi-Purpose Wagon Solution for Freight Transports - Finnish Manufacturing Perspective

Rautateillä käytettävät tavaravaunut ovat vanhenemassa hyvin nopeasti; tämä koskee niin Venäjää, Suomea, Ruotsia kuin laajemminkin Eurooppaa. Venäjällä ja Euroopassa on käytössä runsaasti vaunuja, jotka ovat jo ylittäneet niille suositeltavan käyttöiän. Silti niitä käytetään kuljetuksissa, kun näitä korvaavia uusia vaunuja ei ole tarpeeksi saatavilla. Uusimmat vaunut ovat yleensä vaunuja vuokraavien yritysten tai uusien rautatieoperaattorien hankkimia - tämä koskee erityisesti Venäjää, jossa vaunuvuokraus on noussut erittäin suosituksi vaihtoehdoksi. Ennusteissa kerrotaan vaunupulan kasvavan ainakin vuoteen 2010 saakka. Jos rautateiden suosio rahtikuljetusmuotona kasvaa, niin voimistuva vaunukysyntä jatkuu huomattavan paljon pidemmän aikaa. Euroopan ja Venäjän vaunukannan tilanne näkyy myös sitä palvelevan konepajateollisuuden ongelmina - yleisesti ottaen alan eurooppalaiset yritykset ovat heikosti kannattavia ja niiden liikevaihto ei juuri kasva, venäläiset ja ukrainalaiset yritykset ovat olleet samassa tilanteessa, joskin aivan viime vuosina tilanne on osassa kääntynyt paremmaksi. Kun näiden maanosien yritysten liikevaihtoa, voittoa ja omistaja-arvoa verrataan yhdysvaltalaisiin kilpailijoihin, huomataan että jälkimmäisten suoriutuminen on huomattavan paljon parempaa, ja näillä yrityksillä on myös kyky maksaa osinkoja omistajilleen. Tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli kehittää uuden tyyppinen kuljetusvaunu Suomen, Venäjän sekä mahdollisesti myös Kiinan väliseen liikenteeseen. Vaunutyypin tarkoituksena olisi kyetä toimimaan monikäyttöisenä, niin raaka-aineiden kuin konttienkin kuljetuksessa, tasapainottaen kuljetusmuotojen aiheuttamaa kuljetuspaino-ongelmaa. Kehitystyön pohjana käytimme yli 1000 venäläisen vaunutyypin tietokantaa, josta valitsimme Data Envelopment Analysis -menetelmällä soveliaimmat vaunut kontinkuljetukseen (lähemmin tarkastelimme n. 40 vaunutyyppiä), jättäen mahdollisimman vähän tyhjää tilaa junaan, mutta silti kyeten kantamaan valitun konttilastin. Kun kantokykyongelmia venäläisissä vaunuissa ei useinkaan ole, on vertailu tehtävissä tavarajunan pituuden ja kokonaispainon perusteella. Simuloituamme yhdistettyihin kuljetuksiin soveliasta vaunutyyppiä käytännössä löytyvässä kuljetusverkostossa (esim. raakapuuta Suomeen tai Kiinaan ja kontteja takaisin Venäjän suuntaan), huomasimme lyhemmän vaunupituuden sisältävän kustannusetua, erityisesti raakaainekuljetuksissa, mutta myös rajanylityspaikkojen mahdollisesti vähentyessä. Lyhempi vaunutyyppi on myös joustavampi erilaisten konttipituuksien suhteen (40 jalan kontin käyttö on yleistynyt viime vuosina). Työn lopuksi ehdotamme uuden vaunutyypin tuotantotavaksi verkostomaista lähestymistapaa, jossa osa vaunusta tehtäisiin Suomessa ja osa Venäjällä ja/tai Ukrainassa. Vaunutyypin tulisi olla rekisteröity Venäjälle, sillä silloin sitä voi käyttää Suomen ja Venäjän, kuten myös soveltuvin osin Venäjän ja Kiinan välisessä liikenteessä.

Assessment of meshing techniques for fatigue analysis of load carrying welded joints using the effective notch approach

The effective notch stress approach for the fatigue strength assessment of welded structures as included in the Fatigue Design Recommendation of the IIW requires the numerical analysis of the elastic notch stress in the weld toe and weld root which is fictitiously rounded with a radius of 1mm. The goal of this thesis work was to consider alternate meshing strategies when using the effective notch stress approach to assess the fatigue strength of load carrying partial penetration fillet-welded cruciform joints. In order to establish guidelines for modeling the joint and evaluating the results, various two-dimensional (2D) finite element analyses were carried out by systematically varying the thickness of the plates, the weld throat thickness, the degree of bending, and the shape and location of the modeled effective notch. To extend the scope of this work, studies were also carried out on the influence of

Quantitative market and sales forecast accuracy analysis

The main objective of this master’s thesis was to quantitatively study the reliability of market and sales forecasts of a certain company by measuring bias, precision and accuracy of these forecasts by comparing forecasts against actual values. Secondly, the differences of bias, precision and accuracy between markets were explained by various macroeconomic variables and market characteristics. Accuracy and precision of the forecasts seems to vary significantly depending on the market that is being forecasted, the variable that is being forecasted, the estimation period, the length of the estimated period, the forecast horizon and the granularity of the data. High inflation, low income level and high year-on-year market volatility seems to be related with higher annual market forecast uncertainty and high year-on-year sales volatility with higher sales forecast uncertainty. When quarterly market size is forecasted, correlation between macroeconomic variables and forecast errors reduces. Uncertainty of the sales forecasts cannot be explained with macroeconomic variables. Longer forecasts are more uncertain, shorter estimated period leads to higher uncertainty, and usually more recent market forecasts are less uncertain. Sales forecasts seem to be more uncertain than market forecasts, because they incorporate both market size and market share risks. When lead time is more than one year, forecast risk seems to grow as a function of root forecast horizon. When lead time is less than year, sequential error terms are typically correlated, and therefore forecast errors are trending or mean-reverting. The bias of forecasts seems to change in cycles, and therefore the future forecasts cannot be systematically adjusted with it. The MASE cannot be used to measure whether the forecast can anticipate year-on-year volatility. Instead, we constructed a new relative accuracy measure to cope with this particular situation.

Teollisuusvaihteen kokoonpanoprosessin laadun parantaminen

Paperikoneen telalle integroitujen mekaanisten käyttölaitteiden valmistuksen siirtoprojektin yhteydessä on raportoitu huomattavan paljon valmistuksen aikaisia poikkeamia. Poikkeamien juurisyyn hahmottamiseksi tehtiin kvantitatiivinen analyysi raportoiduista poikkeamista ja kvalitatiivinen analyysi kokoonpanon nykytilasta. Kokoonpanotyöstä suuri osa on tällä hetkellä arvoa jalostamatonta työtä. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin valmistusprosessissa kaikkia kokoonpanon poikkeamien perustyyppejä ja näitä poikkeamia olivat aiheuttaneet kaikki mahdolliset aiheuttajat. Etenkin hankittavien osien laatua tulisi käsitellä poikkeamien aiheuttamien kokonaiskustannusten kautta. Kokoonpanon tarvitsema tieto on olemassa täsmällisessä muodossa, mutta sen luoksepäästävyys on huono. Prosessin kuvauksella, hiljaisen tiedon kirjaamisella ja täsmällisen tiedon julkistamisella voidaan parantaa tuotannon laatua tuotetuntemuksen parantuessa. Käyttökohteen tunteminen parantaa vaatimusten ymmärtämistä. Tutkimuksessa havaittujen poikkeamien analysoinnin perusteella erityistä huomiota tulisi kiinnittää tarkastusvaiheiden olemassa oloon, sijoitukseen ja niiden laatuun. Suuri osa poikkeamista oli edennyt kokoonpanoon jonkin tarkastusvaiheen läpi. Tarkastusvaiheiden laatutason tulee parantua, jotta moninkertaisesta tarkastuksesta voidaan luopua.

Structural development of the harvester head saw unit

The main goal of the thesis was to further develop harvester head saw device to the Finnish forest machine manufacturer. The work was done from the basis of the manufacturer´s current production model and the earlier study from this same subject called: “Development of chain saw for harvester” Tero Kaatrasalo, 2004. The work was focused to improving the serviceability and reliability of the saw device, but design also included adding few beforehand determined new features into the saw unit. This was done to give some added value for the end customer. The work includes analysis of the earlier saw devices and ideations of the improvements for the structure.

Fatigue analysis of brackets with and without scallop for bridge and other deck structure using effective notch stress.

Due to functional requirement of a structural detail brackets with and without scallop are frequently used in bridges, decks, ships and offshore structure. Scallops are designed to serve as passage way for fluids, to reduce weld length and plate distortions. Moreover, scallops are used to avoid intersection of two or more welds for the fact that there is the presence of inventible inherent initial crack except for full penetrated weld and the formation of multi-axial stress state at the weld intersection. Welding all around the scallop corner increase the possibility of brittle fracture even for the case the bracket is not loaded by primary load. Avoiding of scallop will establish an initial crack in the corner if bracket is welded by fillet welds. If the two weld run pass had crossed, this would have given a 3D residual stress situation. Therefore the presences and absence of scallop necessitates the 3D FEA fatigue resistance of both types of brackets using effective notch stress approach ( ). FEMAP 10.1 with NX NASTRAN was used for the 3D FEA. The first and main objective of this research was to investigate and compare the fatigue resistance of brackets with and without scallop. The secondary goal was the fatigue design of scallops in case they cannot be avoided for some reason. The fatigue resistance for both types of brackets was determined based on approach using 1 mm fictitiously rounded radius based on IIW recommendation. Identical geometrical, boundary and loading conditions were used for the determination and comparison of fatigue resistance of both types of brackets using linear 3D FEA. Moreover the size effect of bracket length was also studied using 2D SHELL element FEA. In the case of brackets with scallop the flange plate weld toe at the corner of the scallop was found to exhibit the highest and made the flange plate weld toe critical for fatigue failure. Whereas weld root and weld toe at the weld intersections were the highly stressed location for brackets without scallop. Thus weld toe for brackets with scallop, and weld root and weld toe for brackets without scallop were found to be the critical area for fatigue failure. Employing identical parameters on both types of brackets, brackets without scallop had the highest except for full penetrated weld. Furthermore the fatigue resistance of brackets without scallop was highly affected by the lack of weld penetration length and it was found out that decreased as the weld penetration was increased. Despite the fact that the very presence of scallop reduces the stiffness and also same time induce stress concentration, based on the 3D FEA it is worth concluding that using scallop provided better fatigue resistance when both types of brackets were fillet welded. However brackets without scallop had the highest fatigue resistance when full penetration weld was used. This thesis also showed that weld toe for brackets with scallop was the only highly stressed area unlike brackets without scallop in which both weld toe and weld root were the critical locations for fatigue failure when different types of boundary conditions were used. Weld throat thickness, plate thickness, scallop radius, lack of weld penetration length, boundary condition and weld quality affected the fatigue resistance of both types of brackets. And as a result, bracket design procedure, especially welding quality and post weld treatment techniques significantly affect the fatigue resistance of both type of brackets.

Parallel-Operating Three-Phase Voltage Source Inverters – Circulating CurrentModeling, Analysis and Mitigation

The maximum realizable power throughput of power electronic converters may be limited or constrained by technical or economical considerations. One solution to this problemis to connect several power converter units in parallel. The parallel connection can be used to increase the current carrying capacity of the overall system beyond the ratings of individual power converter units. Thus, it is possible to use several lower-power converter units, produced in large quantities, as building blocks to construct high-power converters in a modular manner. High-power converters realized by using parallel connection are needed for example in multimegawatt wind power generation systems. Parallel connection of power converter units is also required in emerging applications such as photovoltaic and fuel cell power conversion. The parallel operation of power converter units is not, however, problem free. This is because parallel-operating units are subject to overcurrent stresses, which are caused by unequal load current sharing or currents that flow between the units. Commonly, the term ’circulatingcurrent’ is used to describe both the unequal load current sharing and the currents flowing between the units. Circulating currents, again, are caused by component tolerances and asynchronous operation of the parallel units. Parallel-operating units are also subject to stresses caused by unequal thermal stress distribution. Both of these problemscan, nevertheless, be handled with a proper circulating current control. To design an effective circulating current control system, we need information about circulating current dynamics. The dynamics of the circulating currents can be investigated by developing appropriate mathematical models. In this dissertation, circulating current models aredeveloped for two different types of parallel two-level three-phase inverter configurations. Themodels, which are developed for an arbitrary number of parallel units, provide a framework for analyzing circulating current generation mechanisms and developing circulating current control systems. In addition to developing circulating current models, modulation of parallel inverters is considered. It is illustrated that depending on the parallel inverter configuration and the modulation method applied, common-mode circulating currents may be excited as a consequence of the differential-mode circulating current control. To prevent the common-mode circulating currents that are caused by the modulation, a dual modulator method is introduced. The dual modulator basically consists of two independently operating modulators, the outputs of which eventually constitute the switching commands of the inverter. The two independently operating modulators are referred to as primary and secondary modulators. In its intended usage, the same voltage vector is fed to the primary modulators of each parallel unit, and the inputs of the secondary modulators are obtained from the circulating current controllers. To ensure that voltage commands obtained from the circulating current controllers are realizable, it must be guaranteed that the inverter is not driven into saturation by the primary modulator. The inverter saturation can be prevented by limiting the inputs of the primary and secondary modulators. Because of this, also a limitation algorithm is proposed. The operation of both the proposed dual modulator and the limitation algorithm is verified experimentally.

Spare part business analysis and development

The purpose of this Thesis was to comprehensively analyze and develop the spare part business in Company Oy’s five biggest product groups by searching development issues related to single spare parts’ supply chains as well as the spare part business process, make implementation plans for them and implement the plans when possible. The items were classified based on special characteristics of spare parts and on their actual sales volumes. The created item classes were examined for finding improvement possibilities. Management strategies for classified items were suggested. Vendors and customers were analyzed for supporting the comprehensive supply network development work. The effectiveness of the current spare part business process was analyzed in co-operation with the spare part teams in three business unit locations. Several items were taken away from inventories as uselessly stocked items. Price list related to core items with one of the main product group’s core item manufacturer was suggested to be expanded in Town A. Refinement equipment seal item supply chain management was seen important to develop in Town B. A new internal business process model was created for minimizing and enhancing the internal business between Company’s business units. SAP inventory reports and several other features were suggested to be changed or developed. Also the SAP data material management was seen very important to be developed continuously. Many other development issues related to spare parts’ supply chains and the work done in the business process were found. The need for investigating the development possibilities deeper became very clear during the project.

Fatigue study of the fillet weld waving on weld toe and the penetration in the weld root based on the effective notch stress approach

The fatigue failure of structures under fluctuating loads in fillet weld joints raises a demand to determine the parameters related to this type of loading. In this study, the stress distribution in the susceptible area of weld toe and weld root in fillet welded models analyzed by finite element method applying FEMAP software. To avoid the geometrical singularity on the path of analytical stress analysis in the toe and root area of a weld model the effective notch stress approach applied by which a proper fictitious rounding that mostly depend on the material of structure is applied. The models with different weld toe waving width and radius are analyzed while the flank angle of weld varied in 45 and 30 degrees. The processed results shows that the waving compare to the straight weld toe makes differences in the value of stress and consequently the stress concentration factor between the tip and depth of the waves in the weld toe which helps to protect the crack of propagation and gives enough time and tools to be informed of the crack initiation in the structure during the periodical observation of structure. In the weld root study the analyses among the models with the welding penetration percentage from non-penetration to the full-penetration shows a slightly increase in the root area stress value which comparing with the stiffening effect of penetration conclude that the half-penetration can make an optimization between the stress increase and stiffening effect of deep penetration.

Cost-effectiveness analysis in South Karelia Central Hospital

The target organization of this study, otherwise South-Karelia Social and Health Care District (Eksote) provides health, senior, family and social welfare services. South Karelia Central Hospital provides special health care and offers health services from all of the most important medical specialties. Eksote has in use 15D instrument to measure the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of their patients before and after their interventions for observing the health effects of the medical care. Furthermore, 15D allows measuring the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of health care when comparing these before and after results of the 15D measurements and adding the costs of the interventions into this research. The main purposes of this study were to analyze the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of medical care in South Karelia Central Hospital by using the gathered 15D data to calculate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness ratios and to analyze the reliability and availability of the data. Study has been conducted using literature review and quantitative research methods. The results indicate that from the patients within the eight units selected to this study the 15D change information was available from the 52 %, the 15D change and the cost information from 38 % and the information of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) produced and the cost information from 35 %. The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of medical care were greatest at the units of Pain Outpatient Clinic and Rheumatic Diseases Outpatient Clinic. The most effective medical care is given in the unit where the average price of one produced QALY is the highest (Orthopedics). However, the calculated standard deviations pointed out that there are great variances in the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness within the units also.

Model based analysis of the post-combustion calcium looping process for carbon dioxide capture

This thesis presents a one-dimensional, semi-empirical dynamic model for the simulation and analysis of a calcium looping process for post-combustion CO2 capture. Reduction of greenhouse emissions from fossil fuel power production requires rapid actions including the development of efficient carbon capture and sequestration technologies. The development of new carbon capture technologies can be expedited by using modelling tools. Techno-economical evaluation of new capture processes can be done quickly and cost-effectively with computational models before building expensive pilot plants. Post-combustion calcium looping is a developing carbon capture process which utilizes fluidized bed technology with lime as a sorbent. The main objective of this work was to analyse the technological feasibility of the calcium looping process at different scales with a computational model. A one-dimensional dynamic model was applied to the calcium looping process, simulating the behaviour of the interconnected circulating fluidized bed reactors. The model incorporates fundamental mass and energy balance solvers to semi-empirical models describing solid behaviour in a circulating fluidized bed and chemical reactions occurring in the calcium loop. In addition, fluidized bed combustion, heat transfer and core-wall layer effects were modelled. The calcium looping model framework was successfully applied to a 30 kWth laboratory scale and a pilot scale unit 1.7 MWth and used to design a conceptual 250 MWth industrial scale unit. Valuable information was gathered from the behaviour of a small scale laboratory device. In addition, the interconnected behaviour of pilot plant reactors and the effect of solid fluidization on the thermal and carbon dioxide balances of the system were analysed. The scale-up study provided practical information on the thermal design of an industrial sized unit, selection of particle size and operability in different load scenarios.