Regime Switching Models for Electricity Time Series that Capture Fat Tailed Distributions

In the power market, electricity prices play an important role at the economic level. The behavior of a price trend usually known as a structural break may change over time in terms of its mean value, its volatility, or it may change for a period of time before reverting back to its original behavior or switching to another style of behavior, and the latter is typically termed a regime shift or regime switch. Our task in this thesis is to develop an electricity price time series model that captures fat tailed distributions which can explain this behavior and analyze it for better understanding. For NordPool data used, the obtained Markov Regime-Switching model operates on two regimes: regular and non-regular. Three criteria have been considered price difference criterion, capacity/flow difference criterion and spikes in Finland criterion. The suitability of GARCH modeling to simulate multi-regime modeling is also studied.

The Methods of Possible Joint Treatment of Manure and Sewage Sludge in the Leningrad Region

The nutrient load to the Gulf of Finland has started to increase as a result of the strong economic recovery in agriculture and livestock farming in the Leningrad region. Also sludge produced from municipal wastewater treatment plant of the Leningrad region causes the great impact on the environment, but still the main options for its treatment is disposal on the sludge beds or Landfills. The aim of this study was to evaluate the implementation of possible joint treatment methods of manure form livestock and poultry enterprises and sewage sludge produced from municipal wastewater treatment plants in the Leningrad region. The study is based on published data. The most attention was put on the anaerobic digestion and incineration methods. The manure and sewage sludge generation for the whole Leningrad region and energy potential produced from their treatment were estimated. The calculations showed that total amount of sewage sludge generation is 1 348 000 t/a calculated on wet matter and manure generation is 3 445 000 t/a calculated on wet matter. The potential heat release from anaerobic digestion process and incineration process is 4 880 000 GJ/a and 5 950 000 GJ/a, respectively. Furthermore, the work gives the overview of the general Russian and Finnish legislation concerning manure and sewage sludge treatment. In the Gatchina district it was chosen the WWTP and livestock and poultry enterprises for evaluation of the centralized treatment plant implementation based on anaerobic digestion and incineration methods. The electricity and heat power of plant based on biogas combustion process is 4.3 MW and 7.8 MW, respectively. The electricity and heat power of plant based on manure and sewage sludge incineration process is 3.0 MW and 6.1 MW, respectively.

Developing co-operation of business units – exploring synergies and a joint business model

The purpose of this study was to develop co-operation between business units of the company operating in graphic industry. The development was done by searching synergy opportunities between these business units. The final aim was to form a business model, which is based on co-operation of these business units.The literature review of this thesis examines synergies and especially the process concerning the search and implementation of synergies. Also the concept of business model and its components are examined. The research was done by using qualitative research method. The main data acquiring method to the empirical part was theme interviews. The data was analyzed using thematisation and content analysis.The results of the study include seven identified possible synergies and a business model, which is based on the co-operation of the business units. The synergy opportunities are evaluated and the implementation order of the synergies is suggested. The presented synergies create the base for the proposed business model.

A quantitative view on fuzzy numbers

Since its introduction, fuzzy set theory has become a useful tool in the mathematical modelling of problems in Operations Research and many other fields. The number of applications is growing continuously. In this thesis we investigate a special type of fuzzy set, namely fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy numbers (which will be considered in the thesis as possibility distributions) have been widely used in quantitative analysis in recent decades. In this work two measures of interactivity are defined for fuzzy numbers, the possibilistic correlation and correlation ratio. We focus on both the theoretical and practical applications of these new indices. The approach is based on the level-sets of the fuzzy numbers and on the concept of the joint distribution of marginal possibility distributions. The measures possess similar properties to the corresponding probabilistic correlation and correlation ratio. The connections to real life decision making problems are emphasized focusing on the financial applications. We extend the definitions of possibilistic mean value, variance, covariance and correlation to quasi fuzzy numbers and prove necessary and sufficient conditions for the finiteness of possibilistic mean value and variance. The connection between the concepts of probabilistic and possibilistic correlation is investigated using an exponential distribution. The use of fuzzy numbers in practical applications is demonstrated by the Fuzzy Pay-Off method. This model for real option valuation is based on findings from earlier real option valuation models. We illustrate the use of number of different types of fuzzy numbers and mean value concepts with the method and provide a real life application.

Viipurinlahden taistelu 1944 joint-operaation näkökulmasta tarkasteltuna

Viipurinlahden taistelun kesällä 1944 on monesti esitetty olevan ensimmäinen suomalainen joint- eli yhteisoperaatio. Työ käsittelee Viipurinlahden taistelua nykyaikaisen jointoperaation periaatteiden näkökulmasta. Viipurinlahden taistelussa toimi kaikkien kolmen puolustushaaran joukkoja pienellä taistelualueella. Joint-käsitettä tarkastellaan yhdysvaltalaisten ohjesääntöjen ja suomalaisten näkemysten kautta. Yhdysvallat on yksi maailman johtavin joint-doktriinin käyttäjä. Tämän vuoksi joint-käsitettä tarkastellaan työssä pääasiassa Yhdysvaltojen ohjesääntöjen ja niihin perustuvan tiedon kautta.

Design of Instrument for Knee Joint Kinematics Measurement

This thesis describes the process of design and modeling of instrument for knee joint kinematics measurement that can work for both in-vivo and in-vitro subjects. It is designed to be compatible with imaging machine in a sagittal plane. Due to the invasiveness of the imaging machine, the instrument is designed to be able to function independently. The flexibility of this instrument allows to measure anthropometrically different subject. Among the sixth degree of freedom of a knee, three rotational and one translational degree of freedom can be measured for both type of subject. The translational, proximal-distal, motion is stimulated by external force directly applied along its axis. These angular and linear displacements are measured by magnetic sensors and high precision potentiometers respectively

IT Investment Portfolio Management Over Joint Ventures: Case Study in a Multinational Oil & Gas Company

With information technology (IT) playing an increasing important role in driving the business, the value of IT investment is often challenged because not all of those investment decisions are made in a reasonable way or aligned with business strategies. IT investment portfolio management (PfM) is an effective way to prioritize and select the right IT projects to invest in, by taking all the project proposals into consideration as a whole, based on their business value, risks, costs, and interrelationships. There are different decision models to prioritise projects, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one of the most commonly-used methods and is discussed in this master thesis. At the same time, there are IT projects on different levels for a multinational company, from global to local. For instance, many of them are probably proposed by joint ventures on local level. In the oil & gas industry, joint ventures are often formed especially in the area of the upstream (exploration & production). How to involve those projects into the IT investment PfM approach of the parent company is a challenge, because the parent company cannot make the decisions on its own. It needs to prioritize all projects in an adequate way, communicate with JVs and influence them. Also, different control levels on JVs need to be considered. This paper hence attempts to introduce a tailored approach of IT investment PfM for a multinational oil & gas company to address the issues around JVs.

Time Varying Conditional Correlation Between Stock And Bond Returns: Evidence From CIVETS Nations

This thesis estimates long-run time variant conditional correlation between stock and bond returns of CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey, and South Africa) nations. Further, aims to analyse the presence of asymmetric volatility effect in both asset returns, as well as, obverses increment or decrement in conditional correlation during pre-crisis and crisis period, which lead to make a reliable diversification decision. The Constant Conditional Correlation (CCC) GARCH model of Bollerslev (1990), the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) GARCH model (Engle 2002), and the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation (ADCC) GARCH model of Cappiello, Engle, and Sheppard (2006) were implemented in the study. The analyses present strong evidence of time-varying conditional correlation in CIVETS markets, excluding Vietnam, during 2005-2013. In addition, negative innovation effects were found in both conditional variance and correlation of the asset returns. The results of this study recommend investors to include financial assets from these markets in portfolios, in order to obtain better stock-bond diversification benefits, especially during high volatility periods.

Financial controlling and management in recovered paper joint ventures

The objective of this Master’s thesis is to examine financial functions, controlling and management in joint ventures of Manufacturing Corporation Oyj Recovered Paper business area. This case study investigated the current situation of financial functions and find out causes that have led the situation. Current situation of financial functions in joint ventures is variable. The most of the companies is outsourced at least some tasks. However, narrow reporting and problems in reliability are the biggest lack of financial controlling and management. The result of study consists of two parts: short-term and long-term improvement. Short-term improvement includes selected solution to outsource all routine financial tasks to new outsourcing partner and improve financial functions. Long-term improvements aim to create better controlling and management system to joint ventures. It is formed corporate governance and performance measurement. In this study it developed new Balanced Scorecard (BSC) for recovered paper joint ventures. Dimensions of BSC are quality, delivery (time), price and financial controlling and management. Earlier researched are showed problems in success of joint venture relationships. Similar results are obtained in this study. In future research, suitable of developed Balanced Scorecard for other industries could be studied

Weld joint characteristics by nano-materials addition

The need for industries to remain competitive in the welding business, has created necessity to develop innovative processes that can exceed customer’s demand. Significant development in improving weld efficiency, during the past decades, still have their drawbacks, specifically in the weld strength properties. The recent innovative technologies have created smallest possible solid material known as nanomaterial and their introduction in welding production has improved the weld strength properties and to overcome unstable microstructures in the weld. This study utilizes a qualitative research method, to elaborate the methods of introducing nanomaterial to the weldments and the characteristic of the welds produced by different welding processes. The study mainly focuses on changes in the microstructural formation and strength properties on the welded joint and also discusses those factors influencing such improvements, due to the addition of nanomaterials. The effect of nanomaterial addition in welding process modifies the physics of joining region, thereby, resulting in significant improvement in the strength properties, with stable microstructure in the weld. The addition of nanomaterials in the welding processes are, through coating on base metal, addition in filler metal and utilizing nanostructured base metal. However, due to its insignificant size, the addition of nanomaterials directly to the weld, would poses complications. The factors having major influence on the joint integrity are dispersion of nanomaterials, characteristics of the nanomaterials, quantity of nanomaterials and selection of nanomaterials. The addition of nanomaterials does not affect the fundamental properties and characteristics of base metals and the filler metal. However, in some cases, the addition of nanomaterials lead to the deterioration of the joint properties by unstable microstructural formations. Still research are ongoing to achieve high joint integrity, in various materials through different welding processes and also on other factors that influence the joint strength.

Environmental Challenges in the Joint Border Area of Norway, Finland and Russia

This report examines the human impact on the subarctic environment of the joint border area of Norway, Finland and Russia. The aim is to present the current state and recent changes that have taken place in the region. The main threat to the environment is the Pechenganikel mining and metallurgical industrial combine in the towns of Nikel and Zapolyarny in the Kola Peninsula. Emissions from this complex include high levels of heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants and sulfur dioxide. Pollution, along with climate change, water level regulation and other anthropogenic effects, has affected the aquatic ecosystems in the joint border area. The main heavy metals in the area are copper and nickel, the highest concentrations of which are measured near the combine. Direct discharge of sewage into the river continues and airborne heavy metal particles are also deposited to areas farther away. Climate changeinduced increase in temperature and precipitation in the Kola Peninsula is evident. Water level regulation with seven hydropower plants in the Pasvik River have changed it into a series of lakes and lake-like reservoirs. This report discusses modelling, which was enabled to estimate the effect of climate change on Lake Inarijärvi and the Pasvik River hydrology, water level fluctuation and ecology and to follow the sulfur dioxide emissions emitted from the Pechenganikel. Effects of pollution on the nature and concentrations of the main pollutants were studied and climate change in the border area and its effects on the ecology were estimated. Also the effects of water level regulation on the ecological status of the aquatic ecosystems were addressed.

Russian and Eastern European Dynamic Conditional Correlations in light of the Russian crisis of 2014-2015

This thesis studies the impact of the latest Russian crisis on global markets, and especially Central and Eastern Europe. The results are compared to other shocks and crises over the last twenty years to see how significant they have been. The cointegration process of Central and Eastern European financial markets is also reviewed and updated. Using three separate conditional correlation GARCH models, the latest crisis is not found to have initiated similar surges in conditional correlations to previous crises over the last two decades. Market cointegration for Central and Eastern Europe is found to have stalled somewhat after initial correlation increases post EU accession.