Information exchange and disruption risk in multimodal maritime supply chains

Supply chains are becoming increasingly dependent on information ex-change in today’s world, and any disruption can cause severe repercus-sions to the flow of materials in the chain. The speed, accuracy and amount of information are key factors. The aim in this thesis is to address a gap in the research by focusing on information exchange and the risks related to it in a multimodal wood supply chain operating between the Baltic States and Finland. The study involved interviewing people engaged in logistics management in the supply chain in question. The main risk the interviewees identified arose from the sea logistics system, which held a lot of different kinds of information. The threat of breakdown in the Internet connection was also found to hinder the operations significantly. A vulnerability analysis was carried out in order to identify the main actors and channels of infor-mation flow in the supply chain. The analysis revealed that the most important and therefore most vulnerable information-exchange channels were those linking the terminal superintendent, the operative managers and the mill managers. The study gives a holistic picture of the investigated supply chain. Information-exchange-related risks varied greatly. One of the most frequently mentioned was the risk of information inaccuracy, which was usually due to the fact that those in charge of the various functions did not fully understand the consequences for the entire chain.

Electroactive ion exchange membranes based on conducting polymers

Ion exchange membranes are indispensable for the separation of ionic species. They can discriminate between anions and cations depending on the type of fixed ionic group present in the membrane. These conventional ion exchange membranes (CIX) have exceptional ionic conductivity, which is advantageous in various electromembrane separation processes such as electrodialysis, electrodeionisation and electrochemical ion exchange. The main disadvantage of CIX membranes is their high electrical resistance owing to the fact that the membranes are electronically non conductive. An alternative can be electroactive ion exchange membranes, which are ionically and electronically conducting. Polypyrrole (PPy) is a type of electroactive ion exchange material as well as a commonly known conducting polymer. When PPy membranes are repeatedly reduced and oxidised, ions are pumped through the membrane. The main aim of this thesis was to develop electroactive cation transport membranes based on PPy for the selective transport of divalent cations. Membranes developed composed of PPy films deposited on commercially available support materials. To carry out this study, cation exchange membranes based on PPy doped with immobile anions were prepared. Two types of dopant anions known to interact with divalent metal ions were considered, namely 4-sulphonic calix[6]arene (C6S) and carboxylated multiwalled carbon nanotubes (CNT). The transport of ions across membranes containing PPy doped with polystyrene sulphonate (PSS) and PPy doped with para-toluene sulphonate (pTS) was also studied in order to understand the nature of ion transport and permeability across PPy(CNT) and PPy(C6S) membranes. In the course of these studies, membrane characterisation was performed using electrochemical quartz crystal microbalance (EQCM) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Permeability of the membranes towards divalent cations was explored using a two compartment transport cell. EQCM results demonstrated that the ion exchange behaviour of polypyrrole is dependent on a number of factors including the type of dopant anion present, the type of ions present in the surrounding medium, the scan rate used during the experiment and the previous history of the polymer film. The morphology of PPy films was found to change when the dopant anion was varied and even when the thickness of the film was altered in some cases. In nearly all cases the permeability of the membranes towards metal ions followed the order K+ > Ca2+ > Mn2+. The one exception was PPy(C6S), for which the permeability followed the order Ca2+ ≥ K+ > Mn2+ > Co2+ > Cr3+. The above permeability sequences show a strong dependence on the size of the metal ions with metal ions having the smallest hydrated radii exhibiting the highest flux. Another factor that affected the permeability towards metal ions was the thickness of the PPy films. Films with the least thickness showed higher metal ion fluxes. Electrochemical control over ion transport across PPy(CNT) membrane was obtained when films composed of the latter were deposited on track-etched Nucleopore® membranes as support material. In contrast, the flux of ions across the same film was concentration gradient dependent when the polymer was deposited on polyvinylidene difluoride membranes as support material. However, electrochemical control over metal ion transport was achieved with a bilayer type of PPy film consisting of PPy(pTS)/PPy(CNT), irrespective of the type of support material. In the course of studying macroscopic charge balance during transport experiments performed using a two compartment transport cell, it was observed that PPy films were non-permselective. A clear correlation between the change in pH in the receiving solution and the ions transported across the membrane was observed. A decrease in solution pH was detected when the polymer membrane acted primarily as an anion exchanger, while an increase in pH occurred when it functioned as a cation exchanger. When there was an approximately equal flux of anions and cations across the polymer membrane, the pH in the receiving solution was in the range 6 - 8. These observations suggest that macroscopic charge balance during the transport of cations and anions across polypyrrole membranes was maintained by introduction of anions (OH-) and cations (H+) produced via electrolysis of water.

Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

The Anchoring Bias of Investors and the 52-Week High Momentum Strategy in the OMX Helsinki Stock Exchange: Psychological Approach to Market Efficiency

The behavioural finance literature expects systematic and significant deviations from efficiency to persist in securities markets due to behavioural and cognitive biases of investors. These behavioural models attempt to explain the coexistence of intermediate-term momentum and long-term reversals in stock returns based on the systematic violations of rational behaviour of investors. The study investigates the anchoring bias of investors and the profitability of the 52-week momentum strategy (GH henceforward). The relatively highly volatile OMX Helsinki stock exchange is a suitable market for examining the momentum effect, since international investors tend to realise their positions first from the furthest security markets by the time of market turbulence. Empirical data is collected from Thomson Reuters Datastream and the OMX Nordic website. The objective of the study is to provide a throughout research by formulating a self-financing GH momentum portfolio. First, the seasonality of the strategy is examined by taking the January effect into account and researching abnormal returns in long-term. The results indicate that the GH strategy is subject to significantly negative revenues in January, but the strategy is not prone to reversals in long-term. Then the predictive proxies of momentum returns are investigated in terms of acquisition prices and 52-week high statistics as anchors. The results show that the acquisition prices do not have explanatory power over the GH strategy’s abnormal returns. Finally, the efficacy of the GH strategy is examined after taking transaction costs into account, finding that the robust abnormal returns remain statistically significant despite the transaction costs. As a conclusion, the relative distance between a stock’s current price and its 52-week high statistic explains the profits of momentum investing to a high degree. The results indicate that intermediateterm momentum and long-term reversals are separate phenomena. This presents a challenge to current behavioural theories, which model these aspects of stock returns as subsequent components of how securities markets respond to relevant information.

Prediction of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange

This thesis studies the predictability of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange by using financial statement information and market information from 2007 to 2012. This study was conducted by using a three stage process. In first stage relevant theoretical framework and initial variable pool were constructed. Then, explanatory analysis of the initial variable pool was done in order to further limit and identify relevant variables. The explanatory analysis was conducted by using self-organizing map methodology. In the third stage, the predictive modeling was carried out with random forests and support vector machine methodologies. It was found that the explanatory analysis was able to identify relevant variables. The results indicate that the market switching and delisting events can be predicted in some extent. The empirical results also support the usability of financial statement and market information in the prediction of market switching and delisting events.

Do retail investors use technical analysis? Evidence from Stuttgart stock exchange.

Tutkielma käyttää automaattista kuviontunnistusalgoritmia ja yleisiä kahden liukuvan keskiarvon leikkauspiste –sääntöjä selittääkseen Stuttgartin pörssissä toimivien yksityissijoittajien myynti-osto –epätasapainoa ja siten vastatakseen kysymykseen ”käyttävätkö yksityissijoittajat teknisen analyysin menetelmiä kaupankäyntipäätöstensä perustana?” Perusolettama sijoittajien käyttäytymisestä ja teknisen analyysin tuottavuudesta tehtyjen tutkimusten perusteella oli, että yksityissijoittajat käyttäisivät teknisen analyysin metodeja. Empiirinen tutkimus, jonka aineistona on DAX30 yhtiöiden data vuosilta 2009 – 2013, ei tuottanut riittävän selkeää vastausta tutkimuskysymykseen. Heikko todistusaineisto näyttää kuitenkin osoittavan, että yksityissijoittajat muuttavat kaupankäyntikäyttäytymistänsä eräiden kuvioiden ja leikkauspistesääntöjen ohjastamaan suuntaan.

Value at Risk in Foreign Exchange Risk Management

This thesis examines the suitability of VaR in foreign exchange rate risk management from the perspective of a European investor. The suitability of four different VaR models is evaluated in respect to have insight if VaR is a valuable tool in managing foreign exchange rate risk. The models evaluated are historical method, historical bootstrap method, variance-covariance method and Monte Carlo simulation. The data evaluated are divided into emerging and developed market currencies to have more intriguing analysis. The foreign exchange rate data in this thesis is from 31st January 2000 to 30th April 2014. The results show that the previously mentioned VaR models performance in foreign exchange risk management is not to be considered as a single tool in foreign exchange rate risk management. The variance-covariance method and Monte Carlo simulation performs poorest in both currency portfolios. Both historical methods performed better but should also be considered as an additional tool along with other more sophisticated analysis tools. A comparative study of VaR estimates and forward prices is also included in the thesis. The study reveals that regardless of the expensive hedging cost of emerging market currencies the risk captured by VaR is more expensive and thus FX forward hedging is recommended