Predicting Market Crashes: An Examination of the Performance of Macroeconomic Indicators and Technical Analysis

The purpose of this study is to examine macroeconomic indicators‟ and technical analysis‟ ability to signal market crashes. Indicators examined were Yield Spread, The Purchasing Managers Index and the Consumer Confidence Index. Technical Analysis indicators were moving average, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence and Relative Strength Index. We studied if commonly used macroeconomic indicators can be used as a warning system for a stock market crashes as well. The hypothesis is that the signals of recession can be used as signals of stock market crash and that way a basis for a hedging strategy. The data is collected from the U.S. markets from the years 1983-2010. Empirical studies show that macroeconomic indicators have been able to explain the future GDP development in the U.S. in research period and they were statistically significant. A hedging strategy that combined the signals of yield spread and Consumer Confidence Index gave most useful results as a basis of a hedging strategy in selected time period. It was able to outperform buy-and-hold strategy as well as all of the technical indicator based hedging strategies.

Added Value of Combining Value and Momentum Indicators in the Swiss Stock Market

The purpose of the thesis is to examine the added value of combining value and momentum indicators in the Swiss stock exchange. Value indicators employed are P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/CF, P/B ja P/S. Momentum indicators examined are 52-week high, acceleration rate, 12-month past return and 6-month past return. The thesis examines whether the composite value measures based on the above mentioned ratios can add value and whether the inclusion of momentum can further improve the risk return profile of the value portfolios. The data is gathered from the Swiss equity market during the sample period from May 2001 to May 2011. Previous studies have shown that composite value measures can somewhat add value to the value portfolio strategy. Similarly, recent academic literature have found evidence that momentum works well as a timing indicator for time to entry to value stocks. This study indicates that the added value of composite value measures exists. It also shows that momentum combined to acceleration rate can significantly improve the risk adjusted performance of value-only portfolios.

Cultural Diversity, Social Cohesion, Religion: Core Values and Educational Policies in Four European Nations

In my doctoral thesis I evaluate strategies designed to cope with the multicultural nature of four European nations: Great Britain, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark. I also analyse and clarify the question of the place of religion in present-day Europe. The empirical material analysed in the study consists of politicians’ statements and policy documents dealing with immigration policy and religious and values education in the four countries. In addition, I analyse statements issued by the Council of Europe regarding religious education, along with all cases relevant to religious education brought before the United Nations Human Rights Committee or the European Court of Human Rights. The theoretical framework is formed by the scholarly debate – among philosophers, sociologists and scholars of religion in education – concerning the question of a just society. Special emphasis is given to philosophical theories that are in favour of granting special group rights to religious minorities in the name of equal treatment. With regard to the question of the appropriate place of religion, I apply Kim Knott’s methodological model for locating religion in secular contexts, and Émile Durkheim’s theory as to the significance of religion and collective sentiments in uniting adherents or members of a group into a single moral community. The study shows that even when the positive side of immigration, as a potential force for the enrichment of the public culture, is acknowledged, there is anxiety as to the successful integration of immigrants. The premises and goals of immigration policies have also been questioned. One central problem is the incommensurability between the values upheld by Western liberal democracies and certain religious traditions, above all those of Islam. Great Britain, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark have tightened control over their citizens’ ethical attitudes and want to regulate these as well. In coping with cultural diversity, the significance of education, especially religious education, plays a significant role; as future citizens, pupils are expected to internalise the society’s core values as well as gaining an understanding of different cultures and ways of life. It is also worth noting that both the Council of Europe and the European Court of Human Rights have recently expressed the view that one important goal of religious education is to enable pupils to be critical and autonomous with regard to different religions and moral positions. The study shows that religion is not seen as purely a personal matter. Religion is closely linked to individual and national identity, and religious traditions thus have a place in the public domain. It should be noted, however, that a religious tradition – more precisely, an interpretation of religious tradition – qualifies as a legitimate partner in the democratic decision-making process only if it shares similar values with Western European nations.

Testate amoebae (thecamoebians) as indicators of aquatic mine impact

The environmental impacts of a single mine often remain local, but acidic and metal-rich acid mine drainage (AMD) from the waste materials may pose a serious threat to adjacent surface waters and their ecosystems. Testate amoebae (thecamoebian) analysis was used together with lake sediment geochemistry to study and evaluate the ecological effects of sulphidic metal mines on aquatic environments. Three different mines were included in the study: Luikonlahti Cu-mine in Kaavi, eastern Finland, Haveri Cu-Au mine in Ylöjärvi, southern Finland and Pyhäsalmi Zn-Cu-S mine in Pyhäjärvi, central Finland. Luikonlahti and Haveri are closed mines, but Pyhäsalmi is still operating. The sampling strategy was case specific, and planned to provide a representative sediment sample series to define natural background conditions, to detect spatial and temporal variations in mine impacts, to evaluate the possible recovery after the peak contamination, and to distinguish the effects of other environmental factors from the mining impacts. In the Haveri case, diatom analyses were performed alongside thecamoebian analysis to evaluate the similarities and differences between the two proxies. The results of the analyses were investigated with multivariate methods (direct and indirect ordinations, diversity and distance measure indices). Finally, the results of each case study were harmonized, pooled, and jointly analyzed to summarize the results for this dissertation. Geochemical results showed broadly similar temporal patterns in each case. Concentrations of ions in the pre-disturbance samples defined the natural baseline against which other results were compared. The beginning of the mining activities had only minor impacts on sediment geochemistry, mainly appearing as an increased clastic input into the lakes at Haveri and Pyhäsalmi. The active mining phase was followed by the metallic contamination and, subsequently, by the most recent change towards decreased but still elevated metal concentrations in the sediments. Because of the delay in the oxidation of waste material and formation of AMD, the most intense, but transient metal contamination phase occurred in the post-mining period at Luikonlahti and Haveri. At Pyhäsalmi, the highest metal contamination preceded effluent mitigation actions. Spatial gradients were observed besides the temporal evolution in both the pre-disturbance and mine-impacted samples from Luikonlahti and Pyhäsalmi. The geochemical gradients varied with distance from the main source of contaminants (dispersion and dilution) and with water depth (redox and pH). The spatial extent of the highest metal contamination associated with these mines remained rather limited. At Haveri, the metallic impact was widespread, with the upstream site in another lake basin found to be contaminated. Changes in thecamoebian assemblages corresponded well with the geochemical results. Despite some differences, the general features and ecological responses of the faunal assemblages were rather similar in each lake. Constantly abundant strains of Difflugia oblonga, Difflugia protaeiformis and centropyxids formed the core of these assemblages. Increasing proportions of Cucurbitella tricuspis towards the surface samples were found in all of the cases. The results affirmed the indicator value of some already known indicator forms, but such as C. tricuspis and higher nutrient levels, but also elicited possible new ones such as D. oblonga ‘spinosa’ and clayey substrate, high conductivity and/or alkalinity, D. protaeiformis ‘multicornis’ and pH, water hardness and the amount of clastic material and Centropyxis constricta ‘aerophila’ and high metal and S concentrations. In each case, eutrophication appeared to be the most important environmental factor, masking the effects of other variables. Faunal responses to high metal inputs in sediments remained minor, but were nevertheless detectable. Besides the trophic state of the lake, numerical methods suggested overall geochemical conditions (pH, redox) to be the most important factor at Luikonlahti, whereas the Haveri results showed the clearest connection between metals and amoebae. At Pyhäsalmi, the strongest relationships were found between Ca- and S-rich present loading, redox conditions and substrate composition. Sediment geochemistry and testate amoeba analysis proved to be a suitable combination of methods to detect and describe the aquatic mine impacts in each specific case, to evaluate recovery and to differentiate between the effects of different anthropogenic and natural environmental factors. It was also suggested that aquatic mine impacts can be significantly mitigated by careful design and after-care of the waste facilities, especially by reducing and preventing AMD. The case-specific approach is nevertheless necessary because of the unique characteristics of each mine and variations in the environmental background conditions.

Immigration Strategy for Northern Ostrobothnia 2015

A strategy process was completed in the ESF project “Promotion of Work-related Immigration”, which was implemented at Centre for Economic Development, Transport and the Environment for North Ostrobothnia, and an immigration strategy was drawn up for Northern Ostrobothnia on the basis of the process. Information was collected about the situation in Northern Ostrobothnia from the point of view of immigration and the future availability of labour. The intention was to use the information as background material for the strategy. Employers’ need for support in recruiting foreign labour was investigated with a broad inquiry, to which 1000 respondents replied. The strategy process was carried out together with an outside consultant (Net Effect Oy) by arranging three workshops and a seminar where the workshop results were summarised. A large number of companies, authorities, municipalities, associations, project actors and immigrants engaged in immigration issues participated in the workshops. The draft strategy is based on their experiences about immigration and on statistical data, background inquiries and surveys. To ensure the accuracy of the draft strategy, comments were requested from several parties and received from 64 organisations. The core of the immigration strategy consists of an initial analysis, values, a vision and priorities. The strategy is composed of three priorities. The key aim of the priority Internationalisation and Supporting Diversity is to support diversity in schools, workplaces and people’s everyday lives e.g. through attitude development and by promoting internationalisation in companies and education institutions. The aim of the priority Supporting Entrepreneurship and Recruiting Foreign Labour is to promote entrepreneurship among immigrants and the recruitment of foreign labour and to develop the forecasting of educational needs. The priority Developing Integration Services, Regional Cooperation and Networks, in turn, seeks to develop the service structure and policies of immigrant integration and to increase cooperation and exchange of information between regional actors engaged in integration issues. The aim is to use the strategy as a guideline document for immigration issues in Northern Ostrobothnia. The strategy is used to coordinate the existing organisations and operations dealing with immigration issues. In addition, it contains a future-oriented focus and underlines the management of new immigration projects and operations. The main party responsible for the implementation of the strategy is the Immigration Committee. In addition, responsible parties have been assigned to each measure. The implementation of the immigration strategy will be monitored annually on the basis of indicators.

Internet-based breast cancer patient’s pathway as an empowering patient educational tool

This three-phase study was conducted to examine the effect of the Breast Cancer Patient’s Pathway program (BCPP) on breast cancer patients’ empowering process from the viewpoint of the difference between knowledge expectations and perceptions of received knowledge, knowledge level, quality of life, anxiety and treatment-related side effects during the breast cancer treatment process. The BCPP is an Internet-based patient education tool describing a flow chart of the patient pathway during the breast treatment process, from breast cancer diagnostic tests to the follow-up after treatments. The ultimate goal of this study was to evaluate the effect of the BCPP to the breast cancer patient’s empowerment by using the patient pathway as a patient education tool. In phase I, a systematic literature review was carried out to chart the solutions and outcomes of Internet-based educational programs for breast cancer patients. In phase II, a Delphi study was conducted to evaluate the usability of web pages and adequacy of their content. In phase III, the BCPP program was piloted with 10 patients and patients were randomised to an intervention group (n=50) and control group (n=48). According to the results of this study, the Internet is an effective patient education tool for increasing knowledge, and BCPP can be used as a patient education method supporting other education methods. However, breast cancer patients’ perceptions of received knowledge were not fulfilled; their knowledge expectations exceed the perceived amount of received knowledge. Although control group patients’ knowledge expectations were met better with the knowledge they received in hospital compared to the patients in the intervention group, no statistical differences were found between the groups in terms of quality of life, anxiety and treatment-related side effects. However, anxiety decreased faster in the intervention group when looking at internal differences between the groups at different measurement times. In the intervention group the relationship between the difference between knowledge expectations and perceptions of received knowledge correlated significantly with quality of life and anxiety. Their knowledge level was also significant higher than in the control group. These results support the theory that the empowering process requires patient’s awareness of knowledge expectations and perceptions of received knowledge. There is a need to develop patient education to meet patients’ perceptions of received knowledge, including oral and written education and BCPP, to fulfil patient’s knowledge expectations and facilitate the empowering process. Further research is needed on the process of cognitive empowerment with breast cancer patients. There is a need for new patient education methods to increase breast cancer patients’ awareness of knowing.

Key performance indicators for successful metadata governance

Metadata in increasing levels of sophistication has been the most powerful concept used in management of unstructured information ever since the first librarian used the Dewey decimal system for library classifications. It remains to be seen, however, what the best approach is to implementing metadata to manage huge volumes of unstructured information in a large organization. Also, once implemented, how is it possible to track whether it is adding value to the company, and whether the implementation has been successful? Existing literature on metadata seems to either focus too much on technical and quality aspects or describe issues with respect to adoption for general information management initiatives. This research therefore, strives to contribute to these gaps: to give a consolidated framework for striving to understand the value added by implementing metadata. The basic methodology used is that of case study, which incorporates aspects of design science, surveys, and interviews in order to provide a holistic approach to quantitative and qualitative analysis of the case. The research identifies the various approaches to implementing metadata, particularly studying the one followed by the unit of analysis of case study, a large company in the Oil and Gas Sector. Of the three approaches identified, the selected company already follows an approach that appears to be superior. The researcher further explores its shortcomings, and proposes a slightly modified approach that can handle them. The research categorically and thoroughly (in context) identifies the top effectiveness criteria, and corresponding key performance indicators(KPIs) that can be measured to understand the level of advancement of the metadata management initiative in the company. In an effort to contrast and have a basis of comparison for the findings, the research also includes views from information managers dealing with core structured data stored in ERPs and other databases. In addition, the results include the basic criteria that can be used to evaluate metrics, in order to classify a metric as a KPI.

An Overview of the Cleantech Sector - Evaluating Environmental Indicators

The purpose of the thesis is to give an overview of the cleantech sector and to give an answer how cleantech companies can evaluate the environmental sustainability of their business by utilizing various indicators and measures. The thesis is a literature study and it is based on a secondary data. Thesis presents the definitions to cleantech as well as its history and the main industries. Cleantech market overview in Finland and worldwide is also introduced. Furthermore, various indicators are presented in order to evaluate the environmental sustainability of companies' business. In the end, indicators used in cleantech sector are evaluated. As a result, the thesis presents the following methodologies that can be used in evaluating the environmental sustainability in the cleantech sector: Sustainability assessment framework, Environmental value analysis, COMPLIMENT - Environmental performance index for industries and Environmental assessment for cleaner production. More tools are still needed to evaluate environmental sustainability in the cleantech sector.

The challenges and success factors of commercializing cleaner technologies

Cleaner technologies include products, services, technologies, processes and systems that in use create less environmental hazard than the existing alternatives. Rapidly growing cleantech sector possesses an essential competitive advantage in the future. However, no profound research has been conducted on the characteristics of cleaner technologies and their effect on the commercialization process. This thesis aims at synthesizing scattered information and creating a basis for accelerating cleaner technology commercialization in Finnish context. Two research questions are defined: 1. What are the key challenges and success factors in the commercialization of cleaner technologies based on the existing literature? 2. What kind of lessons can be learned from the Finnish success stories of cleantech commercialization? The research was conducted as a literature review and supported with three case interviews. The results suggest that literature-based challenges are mostly related to, for example, difficulty in gathering customer information, unrealistic customer expectations, lack of resources, networks and proper success indicators, legislation, and unstructured strategy planning stemming from company culture. Handling the barriers require, above all, open communication from all stakeholders, management commitment and accurate goal setting, government-driven funding and incentives, and cooperation with educational facilities. Finnish success cases emphasize especially customer attention: listening to customers and receiving feedback from them during the whole commercialization process to correct the errors early and save resources, visionary in fulfilling customer needs, ability to question company’s own business performance, not being afraid of making mistakes but learning from them, and continuously observing and evaluating the commercialization process.

Skill Development in Music Reading. The Eye-Movement Approach

This dissertation examined skill development in music reading by focusing on the visual processing of music notation in different music-reading tasks. Each of the three experiments of this dissertation addressed one of the three types of music reading: (i) sight-reading, i.e. reading and performing completely unknown music, (ii) rehearsed reading, during which the performer is already familiar with the music being played, and (iii) silent reading with no performance requirements. The use of the eye-tracking methodology allowed the recording of the readers’ eye movements from the time of music reading with extreme precision. Due to the lack of coherence in the smallish amount of prior studies on eye movements in music reading, the dissertation also had a heavy methodological emphasis. The present dissertation thus aimed to promote two major issues: (1) it investigated the eye-movement indicators of skill and skill development in sight-reading, rehearsed reading and silent reading, and (2) developed and tested suitable methods that can be used by future studies on the topic. Experiment I focused on the eye-movement behaviour of adults during their first steps of learning to read music notation. The longitudinal experiment spanned a nine-month long music-training period, during which 49 participants (university students taking part in a compulsory music course) sight-read and performed a series of simple melodies in three measurement sessions. Participants with no musical background were entitled as “novices”, whereas “amateurs” had had musical training prior to the experiment. The main issue of interest was the changes in the novices’ eye movements and performances across the measurements while the amateurs offered a point of reference for the assessment of the novices’ development. The experiment showed that the novices tended to sight-read in a more stepwise fashion than the amateurs, the latter group manifesting more back-and-forth eye movements. The novices’ skill development was reflected by the faster identification of note symbols involved in larger melodic intervals. Across the measurements, the novices also began to show sensitivity to the melodies’ metrical structure, which the amateurs demonstrated from the very beginning. The stimulus melodies consisted of quarter notes, making the effects of meter and larger melodic intervals distinguishable from effects caused by, say, different rhythmic patterns. Experiment II explored the eye movements of 40 experienced musicians (music education students and music performance students) during temporally controlled rehearsed reading. This cross-sectional experiment focused on the eye-movement effects of one-bar-long melodic alterations placed within a familiar melody. The synchronizing of the performance and eye-movement recordings enabled the investigation of the eye-hand span, i.e., the temporal gap between a performed note and the point of gaze. The eye-hand span was typically found to remain around one second. Music performance students demonstrated increased professing efficiency by their shorter average fixation durations as well as in the two examined eye-hand span measures: these participants used larger eye-hand spans more frequently and inspected more of the musical score during the performance of one metrical beat than students of music education. Although all participants produced performances almost indistinguishable in terms of their auditory characteristics, the altered bars indeed affected the reading of the score: the general effects of expertise in terms of the two eye- hand span measures, demonstrated by the music performance students, disappeared in the face of the melodic alterations. Experiment III was a longitudinal experiment designed to examine the differences between adult novice and amateur musicians’ silent reading of music notation, as well as the changes the 49 participants manifested during a nine-month long music course. From a methodological perspective, an opening to research on eye movements in music reading was the inclusion of a verbal protocol in the research design: after viewing the musical image, the readers were asked to describe what they had seen. A two-way categorization for verbal descriptions was developed in order to assess the quality of extracted musical information. More extensive musical background was related to shorter average fixation duration, more linear scanning of the musical image, and more sophisticated verbal descriptions of the music in question. No apparent effects of skill development were observed for the novice music readers alone, but all participants improved their verbal descriptions towards the last measurement. Apart from the background-related differences between groups of participants, combining verbal and eye-movement data in a cluster analysis identified three styles of silent reading. The finding demonstrated individual differences in how the freely defined silent-reading task was approached. This dissertation is among the first presentations of a series of experiments systematically addressing the visual processing of music notation in various types of music-reading tasks and focusing especially on the eye-movement indicators of developing music-reading skill. Overall, the experiments demonstrate that the music-reading processes are affected not only by “top-down” factors, such as musical background, but also by the “bottom-up” effects of specific features of music notation, such as pitch heights, metrical division, rhythmic patterns and unexpected melodic events. From a methodological perspective, the experiments emphasize the importance of systematic stimulus design, temporal control during performance tasks, and the development of complementary methods, for easing the interpretation of the eye-movement data. To conclude, this dissertation suggests that advances in comprehending the cognitive aspects of music reading, the nature of expertise in this musical task, and the development of educational tools can be attained through the systematic application of the eye-tracking methodology also in this specific domain.

The Changing Role of the CIO: Developing Skills by Means of Postgraduate Educational Programs

The objective of this research was to identify the skills and competences required by Chief Information Officers in their professional life and whether these skills can be developed by means of postgraduate education pro-grams. Although the changing role of the CIO has been studied for years by the academia, the ways of necessary skills development have not been paid significant attention. In order to obtain understanding of the topic and its main issues qualitative method was implemented and questionnaires and interviews were conducted with CIOs and other C-level executives to-gether with analysis of the curricula of postgraduate educational programs in the field of business designed for executives. Business skills and knowledge along with developed communication and leadership skills are among the most discussed and required from CIOs. According to the collected data and its further analysis, although the most important competences of an IT executive are technological, the im-portance of business related skills is emphasized by the majority of re-spondents and supported by the existing theory. Postgraduate educational programs have curricula that can develop the required competences, alt-hough not equally.

Handshake ecosystem for Educational Contents between Institutional Repository and OER based Repository

Poster at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Food packaging indicators and sensors

Various categories of food packaging indicators namely; VTT, Ageless Eye, Mocon, Åbo Akademi and Impak were selected and incorporated into food trays manufactured at LUT packaging laboratory. Each of these food packaging indicators was used to investigate (visually and qualitatively) the transmission of oxygen through the seal, and tray material, as well as to detect microbial activity within the content of the package. Applications of different methods of gas flushing, content variation and introduction of two distinct levels of oxygen scavengers were employed as treatments to evaluate the packaging performance of the food packaging indicators. Ease of handling of each food packaging indicator was also taken into considerations. Findings showed that for packages, which contained chicken product, the amount of oxygen in the package, measured immediately after the sealing operation on the first day gradually decreased to zero percent by the third day of the storage period. The oxygen level remained at this point throughout the duration of storage for the chicken packages. Besides, level of oxygen in the packages without product continued to increase with the storage time, at moderate rate of 0.1% for 100%N2 and 0.3% for 30%CO2/70%N2 empty packages. More carbon dioxide gas was recorded for packages flushed with 30%CO2/70%N2. Results also revealed that visual analysis of one of the color indicators for example Ageless Eye, conformed to the data derived from the luminescence food-packaging indicator. This shows that packaging operation of the packaging line was considerably stable, and efficient with negligible exception. However, it was found that most of the food packaging indicators investigated in this research study exhibited considerable packaging challenges, such as, reaction with the content of the package (Impak); over sensitivity (Åbo Akademi and Impak); ease of handling problem (Åbo Akademi); and ease of activation problem (VTT indicators). In this study, the strengths and limitations of different indicators were analyzed. This study demonstrates the applicability of various indicators in MAP using chicken package application.