Subjectivity in the valuation : Case study on the Finnish biotechnology industry

The thesis combines valuation and behavioral economics literature, which is not common among the Finnish management accounting research. Furthermore, the valuation is studied in biotechnology context and those type of studies are rather rare as well. The thesis studies the valuation in the Finnish biotechnology industry. The concepts of behavioral finance are employed in the empirical part of the study to explore decision-makers’ behavior in valuation processes. The main interest of this study is to explore how subjectivity of a decision-maker affects the valuation in the biotechnology industry. The valuation is studied from two perspectives. First, what is the best valuation model for biotechnology companies suggested by the valuation literature? Second, how the valuation in biotechnology industry is done in practice and how the decision-makers subjectivity affects the valuation? The literature review aims at seeking the best valuation model. The real options were found to be the most suitable valuation model for biotechnology companies, especially in the early stages of product development. The real option’s ability to take the value of the inherent options into account results in theoretically most correct valuations. The only disadvantage is the model’s complexity when compared to other models, such as discounted cash flow models. The empirical part of the study consists of a case study, which examines the valuation practices of the Finnish biotechnology companies. When it comes to the valuation models used in practice, it was found that the companies were using rather simple valuation models, which was due to two reasons. First, the interviewees did not believe in the valuation models and second, they were familiar neither with the most sophisticated models nor with all the theoretical aspects of the models they were using. The material for the study was collected with theme interviews. Four CEO’s of highly successful Finnish biotechnology companies. Strong signs of the decision-makers’ subjectivity in valuation were observed. Most obvious were the signs of framing. Furthermore, herding, excessive optimism, and overconfidence were present. All the behavioral concepts observed most likely have a severe effect on the valuation. As a result, the valuation can easily become overly optimistic, which leads to overvalued investments and to continuation of already unprofitable projects. Framing had the strongest evidence. If the product being valued is framed successfully, the risk of overvaluation is high, thus a strong belief can justify almost any value.

Developing the measurement and management of knowledge: applying the constructive research approach in a knowledge intensive service environment

Intellectual assets have attained continuous attention in the academic field, as they are vital sources of competitive advantage and organizational performance in the contemporary knowledge intensive business environment. Intellectual capital measurement is quite thoroughly addressed in the accounting literature. However, the purpose of the measurement is to support the management of intellectual assets, but the reciprocal relationship between measurement and management has not been comprehensively considered in the literature. The theoretical motivation for this study rose from this paradox, as in order to maximise the effectiveness of knowledge management the two initiatives need to be closely integrated. The research approach of this interventionist case study is constructive. The objective is to develop the case organization’s knowledge management and intellectual capital measurement in a way that they would be closely integrated and the measurement would support the management of intellectual assets. The case analysis provides valuable practical considerations about the integration and related issues as the case company is a knowledge intensive organization in which the know-how of the employees is the central competitive asset and therefore, the management and measurement of knowledge are essential for its future success. The results suggest that the case organization is confronting challenges in managing knowledge. In order to appropriately manage knowledge processes and control the related risks, support from intellectual capital measurement is required. However, challenges in measuring intellectual capital, especially knowledge, could be recognized in the organization. By reflecting the knowledge management situation and the constructed strategy map, a new intellectual measurement system was developed for the case organization. The construction of the system as well as its indicators can be perceived to contribute to the literature, emphasizing of the importance of properly considering the organization’s knowledge situation in developing an intellectual capital measurement system.

Pricing anomalies in the Finnish stock market

The aim of this thesis is to examine whether the pricing anomalies exists in the Finnish stock markets by comparing the performance of quantile portfolios that are formed on the basis of either individual valuation ratios, composite value measures or combined value and momentum indicators. All the research papers included in the thesis show evidence of value anomalies in the Finnish stock markets. In the first paper, the sample of stocks over the 1991-2006 period is divided into quintile portfolios based on four individual valuation ratios (i.e., E/P, EBITDA/EV, B/P, and S/P) and three hybrids of them (i.e. composite value measures). The results show the superiority of composite value measures as selection criterion for value stocks, particularly when EBITDA/EV is employed as earnings multiple. The main focus of the second paper is on the impact of the holding period length on performance of value strategies. As an extension to the first paper, two more individual ratios (i.e. CF/P and D/P) are included in the comparative analysis. The sample of stocks over 1993- 2008 period is divided into tercile portfolios based on six individual valuation ratios and three hybrids of them. The use of either dividend yield criterion or one of three composite value measures being examined results in best value portfolio performance according to all performance metrics used. Parallel to the findings of many international studies, our results from performance comparisons indicate that for the sample data employed, the yearly reformation of portfolios is not necessarily optimal in order to maximally gain from the value premium. Instead, the value investor may extend his holding period up to 5 years without any decrease in long-term portfolio performance. The same holds also for the results of the third paper that examines the applicability of data envelopment analysis (DEA) method in discriminating the undervalued stocks from overvalued ones. The fourth paper examines the added value of combining price momentum with various value strategies. Taking account of the price momentum improves the performance of value portfolios in most cases. The performance improvement is greatest for value portfolios that are formed on the basis of the 3-composite value measure which consists of D/P, B/P and EBITDA/EV ratios. The risk-adjusted performance can be enhanced further by following 130/30 long-short strategy in which the long position of value winner stocks is leveraged by 30 percentages while simultaneously selling short glamour loser stocks by the same amount. Average return of the long-short position proved to be more than double stock market average coupled with the volatility decrease. The fifth paper offers a new approach to combine value and momentum indicators into a single portfolio-formation criterion using different variants of DEA models. The results throughout the 1994-2010 sample period shows that the top-tercile portfolios outperform both the market portfolio and the corresponding bottom-tercile portfolios. In addition, the middle-tercile portfolios also outperform the comparable bottom-tercile portfolios when DEA models are used as a basis for stock classification criteria. To my knowledge, such strong performance differences have not been reported in earlier peer-reviewed studies that have employed the comparable quantile approach of dividing stocks into portfolios. Consistently with the previous literature, the division of the full sample period into bullish and bearish periods reveals that the top-quantile DEA portfolios lose far less of their value during the bearish conditions than do the corresponding bottom portfolios. The sixth paper extends the sample period employed in the fourth paper by one year (i.e. 1993- 2009) covering also the first years of the recent financial crisis. It contributes to the fourth paper by examining the impact of the stock market conditions on the main results. Consistently with the fifth paper, value portfolios lose much less of their value during bearish conditions than do stocks on average. The inclusion of a momentum criterion somewhat adds value to an investor during bullish conditions, but this added value turns to negative during bearish conditions. During bear market periods some of the value loser portfolios perform even better than their value winner counterparts. Furthermore, the results show that the recent financial crisis has reduced the added value of using combinations of momentum and value indicators as portfolio formation criteria. However, since the stock markets have historically been bullish more often than bearish, the combination of the value and momentum criteria has paid off to the investor despite the fact that its added value during bearish periods is negative, on an average.

Measuring the performance of corporate events : an empirical study of measuring practices in Finnish companies

Corporate events as an effective part of marketing communications strategy seem to be underestimated in Finnish companies. In the rest of the Europe and the USA, investments in events are increasing, and their share of the marketing budget is significant. The growth of the industry may be explained by the numerous advantages and opportunities that events provide for attendees, such as face-to-face marketing, enhancing corporate image, building relationships, increasing sales, and gathering information. In order to maximize these benefits and return on investment, specific measurement strategies are required, yet there seems to exist a lack of understanding of how event performance should be perceived or evaluated. To address this research gap, this research attempts to describe the perceptions of and strategies for evaluating corporate event performance in the Finnish events industry. First, corporate events are discussed in terms of definitions and characteristics, typologies, and their role in marketing communications. Second, different theories on evaluating corporate event performance are presented and analyzed. Third, a conceptual model is presented based on the literature review, which serves as a basis for the empirical research conducted as an online questionnaire. The empirical findings are to a great extent in line with the existing literature, suggesting that there remains a lack of understanding corporate event performance evaluation, and challenges arise in determining appropriate measurement procedures for it. Setting clear objectives for events is a significant aspect of the evaluation process, since the outcomes of events are usually evaluated against the preset objectives. The respondent companies utilize many of the individual techniques that were recognized in theory, such as calculating the number of sales leads and delegates. However, some of the measurement tools may require further investments and resources, thus restricting their application especially in smaller companies. In addition, there seems to be a lack of knowledge of the most appropriate methods in different contexts, which take into account the characteristics of the organizing party as well as the size and nature of the event. The lack of inhouse expertise enhances the need for third-party service-providers in solving problems of corporate event measurement.

From network pictures to network insight in solution business – the role of internal communication

Operating in business-to-business markets requires an in-depth understanding on business networks. Actions and reactions made to compete in markets are fundamentally based on managers‘ subjective perceptions of the network. However, an amalgamation of these individual perceptions, termed a network picture, to a common company level shared understanding on that network, known as network insight, is found to be a substantial challenge for companies. A company‘s capability to enhance common network insight is even argued to lead competitive advantage. Especially companies with value creating logics that require wide comprehension of and collaborating in networks, such as solution business, are necessitated to develop advanced network insight. According to the extant literature, dispersed pieces of atomized network pictures can be unified to a common network insight through a process of amalgamation that comprises barriers/drivers of multilateral exchange, manifold rationality, and recursive time. However, the extant body of literature appears to lack an understanding on the role of internal communication in the development of network insight. Nonetheless, the extant understanding on the amalgamation process indicates that internal communication plays a substantial role in the development of company level network insight. The purpose of the present thesis is to enhance understanding on internal communication in the amalgamation of network pictures to develop network insight in the solution business setting, which was chosen to represent business-to-business value creating logic that emphasizes the capability to understand and utilize networks. Thus, in solution business the role of succeeding in the amalgamation process is expected to emphasize. The study combines qualitative and quantitative research by means of various analytical methods including multiple case analysis, simulation, and social network analysis. Approaching the nascent research topic with differing perspectives and means provides a broader insight on the phenomenon. The study provides empirical evidence from Finnish business-to-business companies which operate globally. The empirical data comprise interviews (n=28) with managers of three case companies. In addition the data includes a questionnaire (n=23) collected mainly for the purpose of social network analysis. In addition, the thesis includes a simulation study more specifically achieved by means of agent based modeling. The findings of the thesis shed light on the role of internal communication in the amalgamation process, contributing to the emergent discussion of network insights and thus to the industrial marketing research. In addition, the thesis increases understanding on internal communication in the change process to solution business, a supplier‘s internal communication in its matrix organization structure during a project sales process, key barriers and drivers that influence internal communication in project sales networks, perceived power within industrial project sales, and the revisioning of network pictures. According to the findings, internal communication is found to play a substantial role in the amalgamation process. First, it is suggested that internal communication is a base of multilateral exchange. Second, it is suggested that internal communication intensifies and maintains manifold rationality. Third, internal communication is needed to explicate the usually differing time perspectives of others and thus it is suggested that internal communication has role as the explicator of recursive time. Furthermore, the role of an efficient amalgamation process is found to be emphasized in solutions business as it requires a more advanced network insight for cross-functional collaboration. Finally, the thesis offers several managerial implications for industrial suppliers to enhance the amalgamation process when operating in solution business.

The role of due diligence in cross-border acquisitions

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have become an important strategy for international expansion, even though numerous acquisitions fail to achieve their financial and strategic objectives. The risk associated with transactions partly depends on the extent to which the insight into the target company actually holds true. Due diligence is performed to eliminate this information asymmetry. Due diligence is an audit conducted prior to the planned transaction. It can be described as a purposeful and systematic investigation of business opportunity and risk during on-going sale negotiations. The importance of due diligence is emphasized widely in the academic literature as well as among M&A practitioners. On the other hand, researches and practitioners have differing views on what and how much is enough for a due diligence audit. Therefore, this study examines the role of due diligence in a cross-border acquisition process. The main objective of the research is fulfilled by examining the reasons for conducting due diligence, recognizing the elements affecting effective due diligence and analyzing the need and opportunities for enhancing the utilization of due diligence. For the empirical part of this qualitative study five expert interviews were conducted among experienced Finnish acquirers and advisors. In addition, five expert interviews conducted for a distinct study were utilized as a secondary source of data. The results of this study present fundamental reasons for conducting due diligence. However, conducting due diligence is not always self-evident. Doubtful attitude towards due diligence exists, though it is exceptional. Carefully planning the focus of due diligence and compiling and managing the team conducting due diligence are identified as the main elements affecting effective due diligence. Altogether, due diligence can have plural roles which in this study are categorized as the confirmatory, preparative, and cross-functional roles of due diligence. The older academic literature tends to emphasize the confirmatory role whereas the current academic discussion also supports the preparative role of due diligence. It can be argued that the roles of due diligence differ among experienced due diligence practitioners based on several factors. In attempt to increase the value of due diligence for acquirers, more than one role of due diligence is likely to exist. As a result of the different approaches and the controversy regarding the concept of due diligence, the demand for a new, wider definition of due diligence can be claimed to exist.

Russia, China, India Foresight for Small and Medium size Enterprises in Uusimaa : Changes forecast in the Russian, Chinese and Indian operating environments from the viewpoint of small and middle-sized enterprises in Uusimaa

The report describes those factors of the future that are related to the growth and needs of Russia, China, and India and that may provide significant internationalisation potential for Uusimaa companies. The report examines the emerging trends and market-entry challenges for each country separately. Additionally, it evaluates the training needs of Uusimaa companies in terms of the current offerings available for education on topics related to Russia, China, and India. The report was created via the Delphi method: experts were interviewed, and both Trendwiki material and the latest literature were used to create a summary of experts’ views, statements, and reasons behind recent developments. This summary of views was sent back to the experts with the objective of reaching consensus synthesising the differing views or, at least, of providing argumentation for the various alternative lines of development. In addition to a number of outside experts and business leaders, all heads of Finpro’s Finland Trade Centers participated in the initial interviews. The summary was commented upon by all Finpro consultants and analysts for Russia, China, and India, with each focusing on his or her own area of expertise. The literature used consisted of reports, listed for each country, and an extensive selection of the most recent newspaper articles. The report was created in January-April 2010. On 22 April 2010 its results were reviewed at the final report presentation in cooperation with the Uusimaa ELY Centre.

What are the opportunities and challenges of cloud computing technology in the healthcare information systems

This thesis discusses the opportunities and challenges of the cloud computing technology in healthcare information systems by reviewing the existing literature on cloud computing and healthcare information system and the impact of cloud computing technology to healthcare industry. The review shows that if problems related to security of data are solved then cloud computing will positively transform the healthcare institutions by giving advantage to the healthcare IT infrastructure as well as improving and giving benefit to healthcare services. Therefore, this thesis will explore the opportunities and challenges that are associated with cloud computing in the context of Finland in order to help the healthcare organizations and stakeholders to determine its direction when it decides to adopt cloud technology on their information systems.

Young Registered Nurses’ Intent to Leave the Profession in Finland - A Mixed-Method Study

The purpose of this study was to examine and expand understanding concerning young Finnish registered nurses (RN) with an intention to leave the profession and the related variables, specifically when that intention has emerged before the age of 30. The overall goal of the study was to develop a conceptual model in relation to young RNs’ intention to leave the profession. Suggestions for policymakers, nurse leaders and nurse managers are presented for how to retain more young RNs in the nursing workforce. Suggestions for future nursing research are also provided. Phase I consists of two sequential integrative literature reviews of 75 empirical articles concerning nurses’ intention to leave the profession. In phase II, data had been collected as part of the Nurses’ Early Exit (NEXT) study, using the BQ-12 structured postal questionnaire. A total of 147 young RNs participated in the study. The data were analysed with statistical methods. In phase III, firstly, an in-depth interpretive case study was conducted in order to understand how young RNs explain and make sense of their intention to leave the profession. The data in this study consisted of longitudinal career stories by three young RNs. The data was analysed by using narrative holistic-content and thematic methods. Secondly, a total of 15 young RNs were interviewed in order to explore in-depth their experiences concerning organizational turnover and their intent to leave the profession. The data was analysed using conventional content analysis. Based on earlier research, empirical research on the young RNs intention to leave the profession is scarce. Nurses’ intention to leave the profession has mainly been studied with quantitative descriptive studies, conducted with survey questionnaires. Furthermore, the quality of previous studies varies considerably. Moreover, nurses’ intention to leave the profession seems to be driven by a number of variables. According to the survey study, 26% of young RNs had often considered giving up nursing completely and starting a different kind of job during the course of the previous year. Many different variables were associated with an intention to leave the profession (e.g. personal burnout, job dissatisfaction). According to the in-depth inquiries, poor nursing practice environments and a nursing career as a ‘second-best’ or serendipitous career choice were themes associated with young RNs’ intention to leave the profession. In summary, young RNs intention to leave the profession is a complex phenomenon with multiple associated variables. These findings suggest that policymakers, nurse leaders and nurse managers should enable improvements in nursing practice environments in order to retain more young RNs. These improvements can include, for example, adequate staffing levels, balanced nursing workloads, measures to reduce work-related stress as well as possibilities for advancement and development. Young RNs’ requirements to provide high-quality and ethical nursing care must be recognized in society and health-care organizations. Moreover, sufficient mentoring and orientation programmes should be provided for all graduate RNs. Future research is needed into whether the motive for choosing a nursing career affects the length of the tenure in the profession. Both quantitative and in-depth research is needed for the comprehensive development of nursing-turnover research.

The Role of Non-Coercive Influence Tactics in Online Marketing

This thesis examines the effectiveness of non-coercive influence tactics in the context of consumer online behaviour. The objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive understanding of consumer online behaviour and the role of information types in affecting the consumer’s cognitive responses and behavioural outcomes. The theoretical part of the study examines the academic literature on consumer online behaviour and influence tactics used both in traditional buyer/seller relationships as well as in relationships mediated by online technologies. The empirical part of the study is carried out with four experiments that utilise non-coercive influence tactics to affect online consumer behaviour. The consumers included in this study are 18-28 year-old structural and civil engineering students in Finland, United Kingdom, United States and India. The findings suggest that non-coercive influence tactics are applicable in the online marketing context and generate cognitive responses of site awareness, site involvement and exploratory behaviour which subsequently results in behavioural outcomes of compliance, eWOM and site abandonment.

What do Sports Sponsors Really Want? The effects of service quality, service value and customer satisfaction on behavioral intentions in sports sponsorship context

The aim of this Master’s thesis was to study the antecedents of customer satisfaction and behavioral intentions and their relative relationships in the sports sponsorship context. The possible antecedents under investigation in the current research are service value and service quality. As the academic background in the sports sponsorship literature is still rather modest there was a need for further empirical testing. The theoretical part of the research builds on the existing services marketing literature with sports sponsorship and business-to-business contexts in mind. The empirical study focused on the case company Liiga-SaiPa Oy. The data for the empirical analysis was collected via quantitative online survey. The total sample consisted of 357 the case company’s business customers and a total of 80 usable responses were collected. The data was analyzed by using statistical analysis software, SPSS. According to the results of the empirical analysis the most important antecedent of behavioral intentions in the underlying context is customer satisfaction. Also service value was found to have a direct and positive relationship with behavioral intentions. Moreover no indirect relationships through satisfaction were found between service quality and service value and behavioral intentions. However both constructs of service value and service quality were diagnosed to have a direct and positive effect on customer satisfaction. Service quality was also found to be a direct antecedent of service value with other service value benefits. However a contradicting finding with the current literature was, that service value sacrifices were not found to have a significant relationship with overall service value perceptions.

Liquidity and Asset Pricing in the French Stock Market

This thesis investigates pricing of liquidity in the French stock market. The study covers 835 ordinary shares traded in the period of 1996-2014 on Paris Euronext. The author utilizes the Liquidity-Adjusted Capital Asset Pricing Model (LCAPM) recently developed by Acharya and Pedersen (2005) to test whether liquidity level and risks significantly affect stock returns. Three different liquidity measures – Amihud, FHT, and PQS – are incorporated into the model to find any difference between the results they could provide. It appears that the findings largely depend on the liquidity measure used. In general the results exhibit more evidence for insignificant influence of liquidity level and risks as well as market risk on stock returns. The similar conclusion was reported earlier by Lee (2011) for several regions, including France. This finding of the thesis, however, is not consistent across all the liquidity measures. Nevertheless, the difference in the results between these measures provides new insight to the existing literature on this topic. The Amihud-based findings might indicate that market resiliency is not priced in the French stock market. At the same time the contradicting results from FHT and PQS provide some foundation for the hypothesis that one of two leftover liquidity dimensions – market depth or breadth – could significantly affect stock returns. Therefore, the thesis’ findings suggest a conjecture that different liquidity dimensions have different impacts on stock returns.

Children at psychiatric risk and their families in Bucharest, in the context of 25 years of changes after December 89’ Romanian Revolution

The aim of the present dissertation was to capture a picture of child and adolescent mental health in Romania, in the context of almost 25 years of changes following the Romanian Revolution of December ’89. A three-part study was carried out in order to provide consistent answers to the pre-defined objectives: to appraise the development of child and adolescent mental health services in Romania (Part I), to explore the characteristics of clinically-referred patients in a Romanian child and adolescent psychiatry department (Part II), to examine the children’s mental health state and its connections with family functioning and associated risk factors (Part III). A multi-method research approach was used, comprising one qualitative analysis and two quantitative research studies. Part I consisted of a comparative qualitative analysis of the answers given by 10 mental health professionals at a 12-questions open ended interview about the current situation in child and adolescent mental health in Romania, on three topics: changes, challenges, solutions. Part II involved a descriptive quantitative analysis of certain variables (e.g. age, gender, primary diagnosis, co-morbidities, time of hospitalization) conducted on the patients who had been admitted to the Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Department at “Prof. Dr. Alexandru Obregia” Psychiatry Hospital, Bucharest in 1991 and in 2013. Part III was conducted on 342 subjects enrolled in two clinical groups and one school group, this study being performed through a cross-sectional analysis on multi-informant child and adolescent mental health problems and competencies (CBCL, YSR, SDQ P, SDQ SR) and their interrelation with household information (HQ) and family functioning (FAD). Outlining the results it can be stated that: 1) The CAMH System in Romania is definitely set on the path of reorganization, including a higher involvement of beneficiaries and of the community. 2) The characteristics of the admitted patients have changed significantly during the last almost 25 years since `89 December Revolution, under the influence of word wide trends in child psychiatry and of administrative aspects of the mental health network in Romania. 3) The rates of main diagnoses and co-morbidities confirm the reports in literature, with Autism Spectrum Disorder being the most frequent childhood psychiatric disorders in this study. 4) The children’s mental health problems in the psychiatry group are comparable to those reported for other clinical populations. 5) Significant score differences were observed according to various household features and also meaningful associations between a child’s clinical status and different aspects of family functioning. The Romanian Child and Adolescent Psychiatry has started to adopt the norms and standards of the European Union. In the 25 years that have elapsed after the 1989 Revolution, many changes have occurred in Romanian CAMH, but many unresolved issues have also risen. Therefore, the major contribution of this thesis is that it provides a coherent and updated overview of the present-day situation from three different perspectives- those of mental healthcare professionals, the one observed in clinical patients and the one reported by children’s families.

Porous Bodies, Porous Minds. Emotions and the Supernatural in the Íslendingasögur (ca. 1200–1400)

In my PhD Thesis, I study the conceptions and representation of emotions in medieval 13th and 14th-century Iceland. I have used Icelandic saga literature as my source material and Icelandic Family sagas (Íslendingasögur) as my main sources. Firstly, I wished to explore in my study the medieval Icelandic folk theory of emotions: what emotions were thought to be, from what they originated and how they operated? Secondly, in earlier research it has been shown that emotions were seldom described in Íslendingasögur. They were mostly represented in dialogue, poetry or in somatic changes (e.g. turning pale). Consequently, I examined whether medieval Icelanders had alternative emotion discourses in literature, in addition to the usual manner of representation. My study consists of qualitative case studies, and I have analysed the sources intertextually. I suggest that medieval Icelanders regarded emotions as movements of the mind. The mind existed in the heart. As a consequence, emotions were considered physical in nature. The human body and therefore also the human mind was considered porous: if the mind of the person was not strong enough, supernatural agents and forces could penetrate theboundaries of his/her body as winds or sharp projectiles. Correspondingly, minds of strong-willed people could penetrate the minds of others. As a result, illness and emotions could upspring. People did not always distinguish between emotions and physical illnesses. Excessive emotions could cause illness, even death. Especially fear, grief and emotions of moral responsibility (e.g. guilt) made people vulnerable to the supernatural influence. Guilt was considered part of the emotional experience of misfortune (ógæfa), and in literature guilt could also be represented as eye pain that was inflicted upon the sufferer by a supernatural agent in a dream. Consequently, supernatural forces and beings were part of the upspring of emotions, but also part of the representation of emotions in literature: They caused the emotion but their presence also represented the emotional turmoil in the lives of the people that the supernatural agents harassed; emotions that had followed from norm transgressions, betrayal and other forms of social disequilibrium. Medieval readers and listeners of the Íslendingasögur were used to interpreting such different layers of meaning in texts.

Analyzing the Effects of the New Renewable Energy Policy in Russia on Investments into Wind, Solar and Small Hydro Power

This thesis presents an analysis of recently enacted Russian renewable energy policy based on capacity mechanism. Considering its novelty and poor coverage by academic literature, the aim of the thesis is to analyze capacity mechanism influence on investors’ decision-making process. The current research introduces a number of approaches to investment analysis. Firstly, classical financial model was built with Microsoft Excel® and crisp efficiency indicators such as net present value were determined. Secondly, sensitivity analysis was performed to understand different factors influence on project profitability. Thirdly, Datar-Mathews method was applied that by means of Monte Carlo simulation realized with Matlab Simulink®, disclosed all possible outcomes of investment project and enabled real option thinking. Fourthly, previous analysis was duplicated by fuzzy pay-off method with Microsoft Excel®. Finally, decision-making process under capacity mechanism was illustrated with decision tree. Capacity remuneration paid within 15 years is calculated individually for each RE project as variable annuity that guarantees a particular return on investment adjusted on changes in national interest rates. Analysis results indicate that capacity mechanism creates a real option to invest in renewable energy project by ensuring project profitability regardless of market conditions if project-internal factors are managed properly. The latter includes keeping capital expenditures within set limits, production performance higher than 75% of target indicators, and fulfilling localization requirement, implying producing equipment and services within the country. Occurrence of real option shapes decision-making process in the following way. Initially, investor should define appropriate location for a planned power plant where high production performance can be achieved, and lock in this location in case of competition. After, investor should wait until capital cost limit and localization requirement can be met, after that decision to invest can be made without any risk to project profitability. With respect to technology kind, investment into solar PV power plant is more attractive than into wind or small hydro power, since it has higher weighted net present value and lower standard deviation. However, it does not change decision-making strategy that remains the same for each technology type. Fuzzy pay-method proved its ability to disclose the same patterns of information as Monte Carlo simulation. Being effective in investment analysis under uncertainty and easy in use, it can be recommended as sufficient analytical tool to investors and researchers. Apart from described results, this thesis contributes to the academic literature by detailed description of capacity price calculation for renewable energy that was not available in English before. With respect to methodology novelty, such advanced approaches as Datar-Mathews method and fuzzy pay-off method are applied on the top of investment profitability model that incorporates capacity remuneration calculation as well. Comparison of effects of two different RE supporting schemes, namely Russian capacity mechanism and feed-in premium, contributes to policy comparative studies and exhibits useful inferences for researchers and policymakers. Limitations of this research are simplification of assumptions to country-average level that restricts our ability to analyze renewable energy investment region wise and existing limitation of the studying policy to the wholesale power market that leaves retail markets and remote areas without our attention, taking away medium and small investment into renewable energy from the research focus. Elimination of these limitations would allow creating the full picture of Russian renewable energy investment profile.