On Option Price Information Content and Extraction of Implied Probability Distributions

In this study we used market settlement prices of European call options on stock index futures to extract implied probability distribution function (PDF). The method used produces a PDF of returns of an underlying asset at expiration date from implied volatility smile. With this method, the assumption of lognormal distribution (Black-Scholes model) is tested. The market view of the asset price dynamics can then be used for various purposes (hedging, speculation). We used the so called smoothing approach for implied PDF extraction presented by Shimko (1993). In our analysis we obtained implied volatility smiles from index futures markets (S&P 500 and DAX indices) and standardized them. The method introduced by Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) was then used on PDF extraction. The results show significant deviations from the assumption of lognormal returns for S&P500 options while DAX options mostly fit the lognormal distribution. A deviant subjective view of PDF can be used to form a strategy as discussed in the last section.

Efficient installed base information management and utilization in global after sales service business

This Master´s thesis explores how the a global industrial corporation’s after sales service department should arrange its installed base management practices in order to maintain and utilize the installed base information effectively. Case company has product-related records, such as product’s lifecycle information, service history information and information about product’s performance. Information is collected and organized often case by case, therefore the systematic and effective use of installed base information is difficult also the overview of installed base is missing. The goal of the thesis study was to find out how the case company can improve the installed base maintenance and management practices and improve the installed base information availability and reliability. Installed base information management practices were first examined through the literature. The empirical research was conducted by the interviews and questionnaire survey, targeted to the case company’s service department. The research purpose was to find out the challenges related to case company´s service department’s information management practices. The study also identified the installed base information needs and improvement potential in the availability of information. Based on the empirical research findings, recommendations for improve installed base management practices and information availability were created. Grounding of the recommendations, the case company is suggested the following proposals for action: Service report development, improving the change management process, ensuring the quality of the product documentation in early stages of product life cycle and decision to improve installed base management practices.

Information exchange and disruption risk in multimodal maritime supply chains

Supply chains are becoming increasingly dependent on information ex-change in today’s world, and any disruption can cause severe repercus-sions to the flow of materials in the chain. The speed, accuracy and amount of information are key factors. The aim in this thesis is to address a gap in the research by focusing on information exchange and the risks related to it in a multimodal wood supply chain operating between the Baltic States and Finland. The study involved interviewing people engaged in logistics management in the supply chain in question. The main risk the interviewees identified arose from the sea logistics system, which held a lot of different kinds of information. The threat of breakdown in the Internet connection was also found to hinder the operations significantly. A vulnerability analysis was carried out in order to identify the main actors and channels of infor-mation flow in the supply chain. The analysis revealed that the most important and therefore most vulnerable information-exchange channels were those linking the terminal superintendent, the operative managers and the mill managers. The study gives a holistic picture of the investigated supply chain. Information-exchange-related risks varied greatly. One of the most frequently mentioned was the risk of information inaccuracy, which was usually due to the fact that those in charge of the various functions did not fully understand the consequences for the entire chain.

Kirja-arvostelu : Udder healt and communication

Kirjallisuusarvostelu

Envia – a repository for environmental information access and discovery

Poster at Open Repositories 2014, Helsinki, Finland, June 9-13, 2014

Security and Privacy in a Ubiquitous Information Screen

We expose the ubiquitous interaction between an information screen and its’ viewers mobile devices, highlights the communication vulnerabilities, suggest mitigation strategies and finally implement these strategies to secure the communication. The screen infers information preferences’ of viewers within its vicinity transparently from their mobile devices over Bluetooth. Backend processing then retrieves up-to-date versions of preferred information from content providers. Retrieved content such as sporting news, weather forecasts, advertisements, stock markets and aviation schedules, are systematically displayed on the screen. To maximise users’ benefit, experience and acceptance, the service is provided with no user interaction at the screen and securely upholding preferences privacy and viewers anonymity. Compelled by the personal nature of mobile devices, their contents privacy, preferences confidentiality, and vulnerabilities imposed by screen, the service’s security is fortified. Fortification is predominantly through efficient cryptographic algorithms inspired by elliptic curves cryptosystems, access control and anonymity mechanisms. These mechanisms are demonstrated to attain set objectives within reasonable performance.

Towards an Integrative Information Society: Studies on Individuality in Speech and Sign

The flow of information within modern information society has increased rapidly over the last decade. The major part of this information flow relies on the individual’s abilities to handle text or speech input. For the majority of us it presents no problems, but there are some individuals who would benefit from other means of conveying information, e.g. signed information flow. During the last decades the new results from various disciplines have all suggested towards the common background and processing for sign and speech and this was one of the key issues that I wanted to investigate further in this thesis. The basis of this thesis is firmly within speech research and that is why I wanted to design analogous test batteries for widely used speech perception tests for signers – to find out whether the results for signers would be the same as in speakers’ perception tests. One of the key findings within biology – and more precisely its effects on speech and communication research – is the mirror neuron system. That finding has enabled us to form new theories about evolution of communication, and it all seems to converge on the hypothesis that all communication has a common core within humans. In this thesis speech and sign are discussed as equal and analogical counterparts of communication and all research methods used in speech are modified for sign. Both speech and sign are thus investigated using similar test batteries. Furthermore, both production and perception of speech and sign are studied separately. An additional framework for studying production is given by gesture research using cry sounds. Results of cry sound research are then compared to results from children acquiring sign language. These results show that individuality manifests itself from very early on in human development. Articulation in adults, both in speech and sign, is studied from two perspectives: normal production and re-learning production when the apparatus has been changed. Normal production is studied both in speech and sign and the effects of changed articulation are studied with regards to speech. Both these studies are done by using carrier sentences. Furthermore, sign production is studied giving the informants possibility for spontaneous speech. The production data from the signing informants is also used as the basis for input in the sign synthesis stimuli used in sign perception test battery. Speech and sign perception were studied using the informants’ answers to questions using forced choice in identification and discrimination tasks. These answers were then compared across language modalities. Three different informant groups participated in the sign perception tests: native signers, sign language interpreters and Finnish adults with no knowledge of any signed language. This gave a chance to investigate which of the characteristics found in the results were due to the language per se and which were due to the changes in modality itself. As the analogous test batteries yielded similar results over different informant groups, some common threads of results could be observed. Starting from very early on in acquiring speech and sign the results were highly individual. However, the results were the same within one individual when the same test was repeated. This individuality of results represented along same patterns across different language modalities and - in some occasions - across language groups. As both modalities yield similar answers to analogous study questions, this has lead us to providing methods for basic input for sign language applications, i.e. signing avatars. This has also given us answers to questions on precision of the animation and intelligibility for the users – what are the parameters that govern intelligibility of synthesised speech or sign and how precise must the animation or synthetic speech be in order for it to be intelligible. The results also give additional support to the well-known fact that intelligibility in fact is not the same as naturalness. In some cases, as shown within the sign perception test battery design, naturalness decreases intelligibility. This also has to be taken into consideration when designing applications. All in all, results from each of the test batteries, be they for signers or speakers, yield strikingly similar patterns, which would indicate yet further support for the common core for all human communication. Thus, we can modify and deepen the phonetic framework models for human communication based on the knowledge obtained from the results of the test batteries within this thesis.

A design and a prototype for a mobile information service for tourists

Tourism is one of the biggest industry branches with billions of tourists traveling every year around the world. Therefore, solutions providing tourist information have to be up to date with both changes in the industry and the world’s technological progress. The aim of this thesis is to present a design and a prototype of a tourist mobile service which is individual-oriented, cost-free for the end user, and secure. On the information providers’ side, the solution is implemented as a Webbased database. The end users access the information through a Bluetooth application on their mobile devices. The Bluetooth-based solution allows to avoid any costs for the end users, that is tourists. The study shows that, even with small data transfers, the tourists could save significantly when compared to possible roaming charges for data transfer. Also, the proposed mobile service is not intrusive, as it is provided through an application installed by tourists voluntarily on their mobile devices. Through design and implementation this work shows that it is possible to build a system which can be used to provide information services to tourists through mobile phones. The work achieved a successful ongoing synchronization between the client and the server databases. Implementation and usage were limited to smart phones only, as they provide better technological support for the solution having features like maps, GPS, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth and Databases. Moreover, the design of this system shows how Bluetooth technology can be used effectively as a means of communication while minimizing its shortcomings and risks, such as security, by bypassing Bluetooth server service discovery protocol (SDP) and connecting directly to the device. Apart from showing the design and implementation of the end-user costfree mobile information service, the results of this work also highlight the possible business opportunities to the provider of the service.