Price spike forecasting in a competitive day-ahead energy market

Electricity price forecasting has become an important area of research in the aftermath of the worldwide deregulation of the power industry that launched competitive electricity markets now embracing all market participants including generation and retail companies, transmission network providers, and market managers. Based on the needs of the market, a variety of approaches forecasting day-ahead electricity prices have been proposed over the last decades. However, most of the existing approaches are reasonably effective for normal range prices but disregard price spike events, which are caused by a number of complex factors and occur during periods of market stress. In the early research, price spikes were truncated before application of the forecasting model to reduce the influence of such observations on the estimation of the model parameters; otherwise, a very large forecast error would be generated on price spike occasions. Electricity price spikes, however, are significant for energy market participants to stay competitive in a market. Accurate price spike forecasting is important for generation companies to strategically bid into the market and to optimally manage their assets; for retailer companies, since they cannot pass the spikes onto final customers, and finally, for market managers to provide better management and planning for the energy market. This doctoral thesis aims at deriving a methodology able to accurately predict not only the day-ahead electricity prices within the normal range but also the price spikes. The Finnish day-ahead energy market of Nord Pool Spot is selected as the case market, and its structure is studied in detail. It is almost universally agreed in the forecasting literature that no single method is best in every situation. Since the real-world problems are often complex in nature, no single model is able to capture different patterns equally well. Therefore, a hybrid methodology that enhances the modeling capabilities appears to be a possibly productive strategy for practical use when electricity prices are predicted. The price forecasting methodology is proposed through a hybrid model applied to the price forecasting in the Finnish day-ahead energy market. The iterative search procedure employed within the methodology is developed to tune the model parameters and select the optimal input set of the explanatory variables. The numerical studies show that the proposed methodology has more accurate behavior than all other examined methods most recently applied to case studies of energy markets in different countries. The obtained results can be considered as providing extensive and useful information for participants of the day-ahead energy market, who have limited and uncertain information for price prediction to set up an optimal short-term operation portfolio. Although the focus of this work is primarily on the Finnish price area of Nord Pool Spot, given the result of this work, it is very likely that the same methodology will give good results when forecasting the prices on energy markets of other countries.

Social networks and networking facilitating internationalization: Experiences of two Finnish fashion companies

Background: Fashion is a dynamic and creative industry where larger retailers are enjoying international success. Small businesses however are struggling in the face of international expansion, as they lack the necessary resources and managerial know-how. The Finnish fashion industry has neither been able to develop the industry environment to support small and micro firms nor has Finland relevant finance or public domains, such as, seen in other Nordic countries. Networking has been recognized to facilitate organizational growth and international expansion in industries such as manufacturing and high technology. It has enabled smaller companies to gain resources, knowledge and experiences otherwise unattainable. Objective: The purpose of this study was to explore how networking has been utilized in the Finnish fashion industry. Particularly social relationships and networks are examined, as they emphasize the importance of individuals. Exploration on the past actions should also provide insight how networks and networking could be utilized and developed in the future. Main findings: It was discovered that the Finnish fashion industry (social) network is rather dense. This was mainly due to the small size of the Finnish market. In the early years of the establishment of the company, close contacts seemed to be utilized. As a company expands and extends its business, the relationships tended to move towards more utilitarian in nature. However, in some cases, the long term relationships had also affectionate features, such as trust and commitment. International networking was found to have positive impact on business opportunities. Participation to events, such as trade shows, was perceived as one of the best ways to meet new international contacts and to develop ones network. Active networking in the Finnish market, however, created both domestic and international opportunities. Furthermore, cooperation and open communication were discovered to facilitate innovation and projects. The public sector seemed to lack the interest in supporting the fashion industry according to the interviewees. The major issues for the fashion industry still concerned, among others, funding, administrative guidance and public support for developing the industry as a whole.

Finnish SMEs and Russian Business Environment: Challenges and Support Activities

The purpose of this study is based on the need of finding what kind of problems Finnish SMEs face in Russian market and how they could be supported. Used support activities in certain levels of internationalization and internationalization patterns are evaluated, international experience of entrepreneur is compared to used support activities and the most challenging pillars in Russia from the Institutional Theory are defined. The empirical part of the study is a semi structured qualitative analysis of ten case companies that represent different industry fields. All of them are SMEs and they represent different levels of internationalization and internationalization patterns. The results of this study indicated that usefulness of support activities have to be evaluated case by case. All the companies are individual organizations and usefulness of support activities have to be evaluated according to the actual situation of the company. International experience of manager has effect on the use of support activities. SMEs identified many problems related to pillars of Institutional theory and regulative environment seems to be the most challenging one.

Export Tire Entry to Chinese Market

After the economic reform, China has undergone fast economic growth, urbanization and adopted the western lifestyle. Global enterprises are investing in China and Finnish companies began to enter the Chinese market after the 1980s. Fast economic growth has downside effects like pollution and thus more cleantech solutions are needed. There are different kinds of entry modes that companies are using when entering the Chinese market. This thesis focuses on export tire entry mode. The purpose of this study is to examine cleantech companies’ opinions about the export tire operations. The background of this study is built by combining the written knowledge about the history of the Chinese industry and market entry modes. The empirical part of the study is a semi-structured, qualitative analysis of five case companies that are operating together in a particular export tire and represent the highest Finnish cleantech knowledge. The results of this study indicate that the export tire entry is an easy and cost effective way to enter new markets or market segment. Export tire is really dependent on the leader who in this particular case succeeded well.

The Role of networks in the internationalization process of Finnish design companies

Finnish design has attracted global attention lately and companies within the industry have potential in international markets. Because networks have been found to be extremely helpful in a firm’s international business operations and usefulness of networks is not fully exploited, their role in Finnish design companies is investigated. Accordingly, this study concentrates on understanding the role of networks in the internationalization process of Finnish design companies. This was investigated through describing the internationalization process of Finnish design companies, analyzing what kind of networks are related to internationalization process of Finnish design companies, and analyzing how networks are utilized in the internationalization process of Finnish design companies. The theoretical framework explores the Finnish design industry, internationalization process and networks. The Finnish design industry is introduced in general and the concept of design is defined to refer to the industries of textiles, furniture, clothing, and lighting equipment in the research. The theories of internationalization process, the Uppsala model and Luostarinen’s operation modes, are explored in detail. The Born Global theory, which is a contrary view to stage models, is also discussed. The concept of network is investigated, networks are classified into business and social networks, and network approach to internationalization is discussed. The research is conducted empirically and the research method is a descriptive case study. In this study, four case companies are investigated: the interior decoration unit of L-Fashion Group, Globe Hope, Klo Design, and Melaja Ltd. Data is collected by semi-structured interviews and the analysis is done in the following way: the case companies are introduced, their internationalization processes and networks are described and, finally, the comparison of the case companies is done in a form of cross-case analysis. This research showed that cooperation with social networks, such as locals or employees who have experience from the target market can be extremely helpful in the beginning of a Finnish design company’s internationalization process. This study also indicated that public organizations do not necessarily enhance the internationalization process in a design company point-of-view. In addition, the research showed that there is cooperation between small Finnish design companies whereas large design companies are not as open to cooperation with competitors.

Foreign Operation Mode Strategies of Finnish Companies in Russia

The object of this study was to examine foreign operation mode strategies used by Finnish companies in Russia. Thus, it was necessary to understand how Finnish companies have used foreign operation modes and which factors have influenced on their foreign operation mode strategies in Russia. Moreover, the purpose was also to find out that have Finnish companies switched, stretched or combined their foreign operation modes. The study's empirical part was conducted as a semi structured qualitative within-case and cross-case analysis of seven case companies that are selected to represent different industries. There are five Finnish LSEs and two Finnish SMEs as case companies. The results of this study indicated that Finnish companies have mainly used exporting as their initial entry mode to the Russian market. After they had gained understanding and experience of the Russian market, they switched from non-equity and simple foreign operation modes to more challenging and equity demanding foreign operation modes, and established wholly owned operations.

Entry Modes for Finnish Firms into the Zambian Renewable Energy Industry

The renewable energy industry in Zambia is poised for growth and offers many possibilities for Finnish firms willing to enter the market. The Zambian government’s deliberate policy measures aim at attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) into this sector. This study rationalises that this could be the pull factor for Finnish firms. The thesis gives an overview of the industry and investigates an appropriate mode of entry, basing its arguments on the comparison analysis of the two economies with the use of the world forum’s stages of economic development as a framework. The theoretical part of the study examines internationalisation theories, entry mode choice and factors influencing the choice. The multiple case study approach is implored, analysing four case companies from Finland with the use of extant literature on internationalisation relevant to the study. The research design involves the use of documentation, secondary data, interviews and observation. The results of the case analyses show that the Finnish firm’s most preferred entry mode initially is exporting because it is considered to be less risky. Additionally, the findings also reveal that the selection of a suitable mode of entry is dependent on the firms’ size, orientation and international experience and could therefore be considered to be subjective. Paramount is the act of gaining market knowledge. The study shows that only hydro-electrical, solar energies and biomass are by far the most used and known forms of renewable energy in Zambia, while other alternative sources still remain un-exploited thus highlighting a growth potential. However, policy formulation and the regulatory framework in the renewable energy sector were found to be wanting.

Foreign Direct Investment and Shareholder Wealth Gains: Evidence from Finnish FDI in China

In Finnish discourse, “The China Effect” refers to the surge of offshoring activities by Western companies to China during the past couple of decades. Inspired by event studies concerning announcements of foreign direct investment, this thesis investigates the market’s reaction to Finnish companies’ announcement of FDI targeting the People’s Republic of China. Standard event study methodology is applied to 135 announcements related to subsidiaries, joint ventures and acquisitions between 1997 and 2014. The data is checked for contamination by unrelated coinciding events and outliers. A positive average abnormal return is found to take place on the date of the announcement. Additionally, the abnormal returns are found to exist only for projects announced before 2008, and only when the investment project is new, as opposed to investments made to extend previously established projects. Ownership arrangement and the novelty of facilities do not influence the market’s reaction towards the investment announcement.

Contemporary marketing in the high-tech industry: Perceptions of Finnish IT marketing professionals

Over the last 30 years, new technologies and globalization have radically changed the way in which marketing is conducted. However, whereas their effects on business in general have been widely discussed, the focus of the effects on marketing remains without clear recognition. Global research has been made to shed light onto the issue, but it has widely concentrated on the views of executives as well as the consumer markets. In addition, a research gap is existent in applying the concept of marketing change in a specific business-to-business (B2B) industry. Therefore, the main research question this study seeks to answer is: “How is contemporary marketing conducted in the high-technology industry?” In this research, the researcher considers the specific industry of high-technology. However, as the industry is comprised of differing markets, the focus will be given to one of the industry’s prime sectors – the information technology (IT) markets, where companies offer other firms products or services manufactured with advanced technology. The growing IT-market is considered of critical importance in the economies of technologically ready countries such as Finland, where this research is also conducted. Through multiple case studies the researcher aims to describe how the changes in technology, customer engagement and future trends have shaped the way in which successful high-tech marketing is conducted in today’s marketplace. Then, results derived from the empirical research are presented to the reader with links to existing literature. As a conclusion, a generalized framework is constructed to depict and ideal marketer-customer relationship, with emphasis on dynamic, two-way communication and its supporting elements of customer analytics, change adaptation, strategic customer communication and organizational support. From a managerial point of view, the research may provide beneficial information as contemporary marketing can yield profitable outcomes if managed correctly. As a new way to grasp competitive advantage, strategic marketing is much more data-driven and customer-focused than ever before. The study can also prove to be relevant for the academic communities, while its results may act as inspiring for new focus on the education trends of future marketers. This study was limited to the internal activities done at the high-tech industry, leaving out the considerations for co-marketing, marketing via business partners or marketing at other B2B-industries.

E-commerce value chain in Russian markets – The role of market specific factors

International e-commerce is still rather new concept and therefore lacks comprehensive research. Different nature of markets and companies has challenged the traditional theories as well as redefined traditional operations. Prior research has mainly concentrated on studying the specific topics as barriers and the choice of international strategy. For this reason, there is a lack of research that comprehensively analyzes the operations of international e-commerce companies. The aim of this study was to increase knowledge on operations of Finnish e-commerce companies in Russia. In order to receive comprehensive knowledge of the operations, research analyzed the internationalization process, the effects of market specific factors to e-commerce and the implementation of various value chain activities of e-commerce. Research focused on examining how companies have seen the peculiarities of Russian markets and how to respond to them. The empiric part of the study was conducted as a qualitative research by interviewing five company representatives and three specialists of international e-commerce and Russian business.The results of this research revealed that having e-commerce in Russia is challenging and requires long term, strategy-based work. E-commerce is assumed to be inherently global business model, but in the case of Russia, numerous e-commerce activities require localization. The most crucial activity to localize is a content and language of content. Even though e-commerce market in Russia has a lot of peculiarities, operating via marketspace decreases the level of bureaucracy and market risk. Despite the challenges, developing e- commerce market in Russia offers a huge potential for companies, whose international strategy needs Russian operation to achieve company goals.

The transforming network of a foreign company operating in Mongolia. Case: A Finnish firm in Mongolia

In the globalising business environment ever fewer market areas remain unknown. Mongolia is yet only considered as an isolated strip between two power states. The purpose of this study is to put Mongolia on the map of academic business research. This is done by describing the transforming network of a foreign company operating in Mongolia. The objective of the study is approached through a case study, which presents the transformation of a Finnish company operating in Mongolia. This study aims at providing understanding on how the foreign case company observes the transformations of its network. The transformation within the case company is reflected to the transformations that occur in the Mongolian business environment. This study was conducted through a qualitative, intrinsic case study approach. The empirical data was gathered by using the method of network pictures. The network pictures were completed with the assistance of themed interviews. In order to be able to analyse the transformation within a network, three different time periods were observed: the past period around 2000, the present around 2014, and the estimated future around 2020. The data was collected from four executives positioned either in Finland, Russia or Mongolia. The respondents have a long experience within the case company, they hold managerial position, and therefore were able to offer valuable data for this study. The analytical framework used to analyse the collected data was built on the industrial network model, the ARA (actors-resources-activities)-model. The study shows that the changing business environment of Mongolia was utilised by the case company. In order to better meet the transforming customer wishes, the case company transformed from being a retailer to being a manufacturer. The case company was able to become a pioneer in the market. Thus, the case company has undergone similar kind of rapid transformation as the economy of Mongolia in entirety. This study shows that the general nature of the ARA-model makes it usable for new research contexts. The initial ARA-model offers a way to identify the dimensions of a network and a mean to understand these dimensions. The ARA-model can be applied to different contexts and to all time dimensions, past, present and future. The managerial recommendations offered in this study are directed towards the managers that plan to start operations in Mongolia. While this study is the first of its kind, it offers a good starting point for the future research on the change of Mongolian business networks. Valuable information could, for example, be obtained from a comparative study between the case company of this study and a multinational mining company operating in Mongolia.

Market anomalies and tactical asset allocation: Utilising market anomalies in multiple asset class portfolios with the Black−Litterman model

This thesis discusses the basic problem of the modern portfolio theory about how to optimise the perfect allocation for an investment portfolio. The theory provides a solution for an efficient portfolio, which minimises the risk of the portfolio with respect to the expected return. A central feature for all the portfolios on the efficient frontier is that the investor needs to provide the expected return for each asset. Market anomalies are persistent patterns seen in the financial markets, which cannot be explained with the current asset pricing theory. The goal of this thesis is to study whether these anomalies can be observed among different asset classes. Finally, if persistent patterns are found, it is investigated whether the anomalies hold valuable information for determining the expected returns used in the portfolio optimization Market anomalies and investment strategies based on them are studied with a rolling estimation window, where the return for the following period is always based on historical information. This is also crucial when rebalancing the portfolio. The anomalies investigated within this thesis are value, momentum, reversal, and idiosyncratic volatility. The research data includes price series of country level stock indices, government bonds, currencies, and commodities. The modern portfolio theory and the views given by the anomalies are combined by utilising the Black-Litterman model. This makes it possible to optimise the portfolio so that investor’s views are taken into account. When constructing the portfolios, the goal is to maximise the Sharpe ratio. Significance of the results is studied by assessing if the strategy yields excess returns in a relation to those explained by the threefactormodel. The most outstanding finding is that anomaly based factors include valuable information to enhance efficient portfolio diversification. When the highest Sharpe ratios for each asset class are picked from the test factors and applied to the Black−Litterman model, the final portfolio results in superior riskreturn combination. The highest Sharpe ratios are provided by momentum strategy for stocks and long-term reversal for the rest of the asset classes. Additionally, a strategy based on the value effect was highly appealing, and it basically performs as well as the previously mentioned Sharpe strategy. When studying the anomalies, it is found, that 12-month momentum is the strongest effect, especially for stock indices. In addition, a high idiosyncratic volatility seems to be positively correlated with country indices on stocks.

The best practices in the formation phase of Sino-Finnish joint ventures in China: For Finnish software companies

This study discusses the formation phase of Chinese-Finnish joint ventures in China. The purpose of this thesis is to create best practices for Finnish software companies in forming a joint venture with a local Chinese company in China. Therefore, the main research question, in what are the best practices for forming Sino-Finnish joint ventures in China for Finnish software firms, is examined through four different themes within the joint venture formation phase; the motives, the partner se- lection, the choice of a joint venture type and joint venture negotiations. The theoretical background of the study consists of literature relating to the establishment process of Sino-Western joint ventures in China. The empirical research conducted for this study is based on the expert interviews. The empirical data was gathered via nine semi-structured interviews with both Chinese and Finnish experts in software and technology industry, who have experience or knowledge in establishing Sino-Finnish joint ventures in China. Thematic analysis was used to cat- egorize and interpret the interview data. In addition, a thematic network was built to act as a basis of the analysis. According to the main findings, the main motives for Finnish software companies to establish a joint venture in China are lack of skills or experience, little resources to enter on their own, and China’s large market. The main motives for Chinese companies are to gain new technology or man- agerial skills, and expand internationally. The intellectual property rights (IPR) have recently im- proved a lot in China, but the Finnish companies’ knowledge on IPR is inadequate. The Finnish software companies should conduct a market and industry research in order to understand their po- sition in the market and to find a suitable location and potential joint venture partners. It is essential to define partner selection criteria and partner attributes. In addition, it is important to build the joint venture around complementary motives and a win-win situation between the joint venture partners. The Finnish companies should be prepared that the joint venture negotiations will be challenging and they will take a long time. The challenges can be overcome by gaining understanding about the Chinese culture and business environment. The findings of this study enhance understanding of the joint venture formation phase in China. This study provides guidelines for Finnish software companies to establish a joint venture in China. In addition, this study brings new insights to the Sino-Western joint venture literature with its soft- ware industry context. Future research is, however, necessary in order to gain an understanding of the advantages and disadvantages of a joint venture as an entry mode into China for Finnish soft- ware companies

Return and Volatility spillovers among stock and Foreign Exchange Markets: Empirical Evidence from selected African Markets

Return and volatility dynamics in financial markets across the world have recently become important for the purpose of asset pricing, portfolio allocation and risk management. However, volatility, which come about as a result of the actions of market participants can help adapt to different situations and perform when it really matters. With recent development and liberalization among financial markets in emerging and frontier markets, the need for how the equity and foreign exchange markets interact and the extent to which return and volatility spillover are spread across countries is of importance to investors and policy makers at large. Financial markets in Africa have received attention leading to investors diversifying into them in times of crisis and contagion effects in developed countries. Regardless of the benefits these markets may offer, investors must be wary of issues such as thin trading, volatility that exists in the equity and currency markets and its related fluctuations. The study employs a VAR-GARCH BEKK model to study the return and volatility dynamics between the stock and foreign exchange sectors and among the equity markets of Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. The main findings suggest a higher dependence of own return in the stock markets and a one way return spillover from the currencies to the equity markets except for South Africa which has a weaker interrelation among the two markets. There is a relatively limited integration among the equity markets. Return and volatility spillover is mostly uni-directional except for a bi-directional relationship between the equity markets of Egypt and Tunisia. The study implication still proves a benefit for portfolio managers diversifying in these African equity markets, since they are independent of each other and may not be highly affected by the influx of negative news from elsewhere. However, there is the need to be wary of return and volatility spillover between the equity and currency markets, hence devising better hedging strategies to curb them.

Cross Listing of a Finnish Company on an Exchange in the United States of America

Finnish companies cross listing in the United States is an exceptional phenomenon. This study examines the cross listing decision, cross listing choice and cross listing process with associated challenges and critical factors. The aim is to create an in-depth understanding of the cross listing process and the required financial information. Based on that, the aim is to establish the process phases with the challenges and the critical factors that ought to be considered be- fore establishing the process plus re-evaluated and further considered at points in time during the process. The empirical part of this study is conducted as a qualitative study. The research data was collected through the adoption of two approaches, which are the interview approach and the textual data approach. The interviews were conducted with Finnish practitioners in the field of accounting and finance. The textual data was from publicly available publications of this phenomenon by the two BIG5 accounting companies worldwide. The results of this study demonstrate the benefits of cross listing in the U.S. are the better growth opportunities, the reduction of cost of capital and the production of higher quality financial information. In the decision making process companies should assess whether the benefits exceed the increased costs, the pressure for performance, the uncertainty of market recognition and the requirements of management. The exchange listing is seen as the most favourable cross listing choice for Finnish companies. The establishment of the processes for producing reliable, transparent and timely financial information was seen as both highly critical and very challenging. The critical success factors relating to the cross listing phases are the assessment and planning as well as the right mix of experiences and expertise. The timing plays important role in the process. The results mainly corroborate the literature concerning cross listing decision and choice. This study contributes to the literature on the cross listing process offering a useful model for the phases of the cross listing process.