Ancient kings of Peru : the reliability of the Chronicle of Fernando de Montesinos

Doctoral dissertation, University of Turku

Machine vision measurement system for paper printability assessments

This work had two primary objectives: 1) to produce a working prototype for automated printability assessment and 2) to perform a study of available machine vision and other necessary hardware solutions. The three printability testing methods, IGT Picking,He¬liotest, and mottling, considered in this work have several different requirements and the task was to produce a single automated testing system suitable for all methods. A system was designed and built and its performance was tested using the Heliotest. Working proto¬types are important tools for implementing theoretical methods into practical systems and testing and demonstrating the methodsin real life conditions. The system was found to be sufficient for the Heliotest method. Further testing and possible modifications related to other two test methods were left for future works. A short study of available systems and solutions concerning image acquisition of machine vision was performed. The theoretical part of this study includes lighting systems, optical systems and image acquisition tools, mainly cameras and the underlying physical aspects for each portion.

Using time and stochastic models for software reliability forecasting and analysis

Tämä työ luo katsauksen ajallisiin ja stokastisiin ohjelmien luotettavuus malleihin sekä tutkii muutamia malleja käytännössä. Työn teoriaosuus sisältää ohjelmien luotettavuuden kuvauksessa ja arvioinnissa käytetyt keskeiset määritelmät ja metriikan sekä varsinaiset mallien kuvaukset. Työssä esitellään kaksi ohjelmien luotettavuusryhmää. Ensimmäinen ryhmä ovat riskiin perustuvat mallit. Toinen ryhmä käsittää virheiden ”kylvöön” ja merkitsevyyteen perustuvat mallit. Työn empiirinen osa sisältää kokeiden kuvaukset ja tulokset. Kokeet suoritettiin käyttämällä kolmea ensimmäiseen ryhmään kuuluvaa mallia: Jelinski-Moranda mallia, ensimmäistä geometrista mallia sekä yksinkertaista eksponenttimallia. Kokeiden tarkoituksena oli tutkia, kuinka syötetyn datan distribuutio vaikuttaa mallien toimivuuteen sekä kuinka herkkiä mallit ovat syötetyn datan määrän muutoksille. Jelinski-Moranda malli osoittautui herkimmäksi distribuutiolle konvergaatio-ongelmien vuoksi, ensimmäinen geometrinen malli herkimmäksi datan määrän muutoksille.

Operational Reliability Analysis of a Three-Tiered Thin-Client ERP-system in an International Corporate Environment

Internationalization and the following rapid growth have created the need to concentrate the IT systems of many small-to-medium-sized production companies. Enterprise Resource Planning systems are a common solution for such companies. Deployment of these ERP systems consists of many steps, one of which is the implementation of the same shared system at all international subsidiaries. This is also one of the most important steps in the internationalization strategy of the company from the IT point of view. The mechanical process of creating the required connections for the off-shore sites is the easiest and most well-documented step along the way, but the actual value of the system, once operational, is perceived in its operational reliability. The operational reliability of an ERP system is a combination of many factors. These factors vary from hardware- and connectivity-related issues to administrative tasks and communication between decentralized administrative units and sites. To accurately analyze the operational reliability of such system, one must take into consideration the full functionality of the system. This includes not only the mechanical and systematic processes but also the users and their administration. All operational reliability in an international environment relies heavily on hardware and telecommunication adequacy so it is imperative to have resources dimensioned with regard to planned usage. Still with poorly maintained communication/administration schemes no amount of bandwidth or memory will be enough to maintain a productive level of reliability. This thesis work analyzes the implementation of a shared ERP system to an international subsidiary of a Finnish production company. The system is Microsoft Dynamics Ax, currently being introduced to a Slovakian facility, a subsidiary of Peikko Finland Oy. The primary task is to create a feasible base of analysis against which the operational reliability of the system can be evaluated precisely. With a solid analysis the aim is to give recommendations on how future implementations are to be managed.

Flash Memory Cells Reliability Parameters Investigation

The present work is a part of the large project with purpose to qualify the Flash memory for automotive application using a standardized test and measurement flow. High memory reliability and data retention are the most critical parameters in this application. The current work covers the functional tests and data retention test. The purpose of the data retention test is to obtain the data retention parameters of the designed memory, i.e. the maximum time of information storage at specified conditions without critical charge leakage. For this purpose the charge leakage from the cells, which results in decrease of cells threshold voltage, was measured after a long-time hightemperature treatment at several temperatures. The amount of lost charge for each temperature was used to calculate the Arrhenius constant and activation energy for the discharge process. With this data, the discharge of the cells at different temperatures during long time can be predicted and the probability of data loss after years can be calculated. The memory chips, investigated in this work, were 0.035 μm CMOS Flash memory testchips, designed for further use in the Systems-on-Chips for automotive electronics.

Effects of modern variable frequency drive on the reliability of an old crane induction motor

The work aims to analyze the possibilities of utilizing old crane driving AC induction motors in modern pulse-width-modulated variable frequency drives. Bearing currents and voltage stresses are the two main problems associated with modern IGBT inverters, and they may cause premature failure of an old induction motor. The origins of these two problems are studied. An analysis of the mechanism of bearing failure is proposed. Certain types of bearing currents are considered in detail. The most effective and economical means are chosen for bearing currents mitigation. Transient phenomena of cables and mechanism of over voltages occurring at motor terminals are studied in the work. The weakest places of the stator winding insulation system are shown and recommendations are given considering the mitigation of voltage stresses. Only the most appropriate and cost effective preventative methods are chosen for old motor drives. Rewinding of old motors is also considered.

Reliability analysis of medium voltage feeder

Distribution companies are facing numerous challenges in the near future. Regulation defines correlation between power quality and revenue cap. Companies have to take measures for reliability increase to successfully compete in modern conditions. Most of the failures seen by customers originate in medium voltage networks. Implementation of network automation is the very effective measure to reduce duration and number of outages, and consequently, outage costs. Topic of this diploma work is study of automation investments effect on outage costs and other reliability indices. Calculation model have been made to perform needed reliability calculations. Theoretical study of different automation scenarios has been done. Case feeder from actual distribution company has been studied and various renovation plans have been suggested. Network automation proved to be effective measure for increasing medium voltage network reliability.

The Effect of Operational Disturbances on Reliability and Operation Time Distribution of NCmachine Tools in FMS

This thesis concentrates on studying the operational disturbance behavior of machine tools integrated into FMS. Operational disturbances are short term failures of machine tools which are especially disruptive to unattended or unmanned operation of FMS. The main objective was to examine the effect of operational disturbances on reliability and operation time distribution for machine tools. The theoretical part of the thesis covers the fimdamentals of FMS relating to the subject of this study. The concept of FMS, its benefits and operator's role in FMS operation are reviewed. The importance of reliability is presented. The terms describing the operation time of machine tools are formed by adopting standards and references. The concept of failure and indicators describing reliability and operational performance for machine tools in FMSs are presented. The empirical part of the thesis describes the research methodology which is a combination of automated (ADC) and manual data collection. By using this methodology it is possible to have a complete view of the operation time distribution for studied machine tools. Data collection was carried out in four FMSs consisting of a total of 17 machine tools. Each FMS's basic features and the signals of ADC are described. The indicators describing the reliability and operation time distribution of machine tools were calculated according to collected data. The results showed that operational disturbances have a significant influence on machine tool reliability and operational performance. On average, an operational disturbance occurs every 8,6 hours of operation time and has a down time of 0,53 hours. Operational disturbances cause a 9,4% loss in operation time which is twice the amount of losses caused by technical failures (4,3%). Operational disturbances have a decreasing influence on the utilization rate. A poor operational disturbance behavior decreases the utilization rate. It was found that the features of a part family to be machined and the method technology related to it are defining the operational disturbance behavior of the machine tool. Main causes for operational disturbances were related to material quality variations, tool maintenance, NC program errors, ATC and machine tool control. Operator's role was emphasized. It was found that failure recording activity of the operators correlates with the utilization rate. The more precisely the operators record the failure, the higher is the utilization rate. Also the FMS organizations which record failures more precisely have fewer operational disturbances.

Delivery Reliability: Timely and Quantitative Accuracy in a Forest Industry Company

The primary objective of this thesis was to research delivery reliability of mill business unit of a forest industry company, especially timely and quantitative accuracy of sales orders. Delivery reliability is an important factor of customer satisfaction, which has a great influence for success of a company. The secondary objective was to find out reasons for possible problems of delivery reliability and give propositions for improvable performances. The empirical part of the thesis based on reporting database of the forest industry company’s ERP-software and detailed information of the mill system. The delivery reliability results of the mill business unit were compared to delivery reliability of similar mill business unit inside the forest industry company. The research results expressed problems in the supply chain. The delivery reliability reporting should be also developed further. This would advance delivery reliability monitoring. The improvement propositions of the thesis were logistic operation mode estimation, particular benchmarking of the compared mill business unit and more detailed survey on production delivery reliability.

Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin tason 2 epävarmuustarkastelut

Diplomityössä tarkastellaan Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen todennäköisyyspohjaisen riskianalyysin tason 2 epävarmuuksia. Tason 2 riskitutkimuksissa tutkitaan ydinvoimalaitosonnettomuuksia, joiden seurauksena osa reaktorin radioaktiivisista aineista vapautuu ympäristöön. Näiden tutkimuksien päätulos on suuren päästön vuotuinen taajuus ja se on pääosin todelliseen laitoshistoriaan perustuva tilastollinen odotusarvo. Tämän odotusarvon uskottavuutta voidaan parantaa huomioimalla merkittävimmät laskentaan liittyvät epävarmuudet. Epävarmuuksia laskentaan aiheutuu muiden muassa vakavan reaktorionnettomuuden ilmiöistä, turvallisuusjärjestelmien laitteista, inhimillisistä toiminnoista sekä luotettavuusmallin määrittelemättömistä osista. Diplomityössä kuvataan, kuinka epävarmuustarkastelut integroidaan osaksi Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen todennäköisyyspohjaisia riskianalyysejä. Tämä toteutetaan diplomityössä kehitetyillä apuohjelmilla PRALA:lla ja PRATU:lla, joiden avulla voidaan lisätä laitoshistorian perusteella muodostetut epävarmuusparametrit osaksi riskianalyysien luotettavuusdataa. Lisäksi diplomityössä on laskettu laskentaesimerkkinä Loviisan ydinvoimalaitoksen suuren päästön vuotuisen taajuuden vaihtelua kuvaava luottamusväli. Tämä laskentaesimerkki pohjautuu pääosin konservatiivisiin epävarmuusarvioihin, ei todellisiin tilastollisiin epävarmuuksiin. Laskentaesimerkin tulosten perusteella Loviisan suuren päästön taajuudella on laaja vaihteluväli; virhekertoimeksi saatiin 8,4 nykyisillä epävarmuusparametreilla. Suuren päästön taajuuden luottamusväliä voidaan kuitenkin tulevaisuudessa supistaa, kun hyödynnetään todelliseen laitoshistoriaan perustuvia epävarmuusparametreja.

Health-related quality of life in school children: validation of instrument, child self assessment, parent-proxy assessment and school nursing documentation of health check-ups

The aims of this study were to validate an international Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQL) instrument, to describe child self and parent-proxy assessed HRQL at child age 10 to 12 and to compare child self assessments with parent-proxy assessments and school nursing documentation. The study is part of the Schools on the Move –research project. In phase one, a cross-cultural translation and validation process was performed to develop a Finnish version of Pediatric Quality of Life Inventory™ 4.0 (PedsQL™ 4.0). The process included a two-way translation, cognitive interviews (children n=7, parents n=5) and a survey (children n=1097, parents n=999). In phase two, baseline and follow-up surveys (children n=986, parents n=710) were conducted to describe and compare the child self and parent-proxy assessed HRQL in school children between the ages 10 and 12. Phase three included two separate data, school nurse documented patient records (children n=270) and a survey (children n=986). The relation between child self assessed HRQL and school nursing documentation was evaluated. Validity and reliability of the Finnish version of PedsQL™ 4.0 was good (Child Self Report α=0.91, Parent-Proxy Report α=0.88). Children reported lower HRQL scores at the emotional (mean 76/80) than the physical (mean 85/89) health domains and significantly lower scores at the age of 10 than 12 (dMean=4, p=<0.001). Agreement between child self and parent-proxy assessment was fragile (r=0,4, p=<0.001) but increased as the child grew from age 10 to 12 years. At health check-ups, school nurses documented frequently children’s physical health, such as growth (97%) and posture (98/99%) but seldom emotional issues, such as mood (2/7%). The PedsQLTM 4.0 is a valid instrument to assess HRQL in Finnish school children although future research is recommended. Children’s emotional wellbeing needs future attention. HRQL scores increase during ages between childhood and adolescence. Concordance between child self and parent-proxy assessed HRQL is low. School nursing documentation, related to child health check-ups, is not in line with child self assessed HRQL and emotional issues need more attention.

A platform for anti-biofilm assays combining viability, biomass and matrix quantifications in susceptibility assessments of antimicrobials against Staphylococcus aureus biofilms

Bacteria can exist as planktonic, the lifestyle in which single cells exist in suspension, and as biofilms, which are surface-attached bacterial communities embedded in a selfproduced matrix. Most of the antibiotics and the methods for antimicrobial work have been developed for planktonic bacteria. However, the majority of the bacteria in natural habitats live as biofilms. Biofilms develop dauntingly fast high resistance towards conventional antibacterial treatments and thus, there is a great need to meet the demands of effective anti-biofilm therapy. In this thesis project it was attempted to fill the void of anti-biofilm screening methods by developing a platform of assays that evaluate the effect that screened compounds have on the total biomass, viability and the extracellular polysaccharide (EPS) layer of the biofilms. Additionally, a new method for studying biofilms and their interactions with compounds in a continuous flow system was developed using capillary electrochromatography (CEC). The screening platform was utilized with a screening campaign using a small library of cinchona alkaloids. The assays were optimized to be statistically robust enough for screening. The first assay, based on crystal violet staining, measures total biofilm biomass, and it was automated using a liquid handling workstation to decrease the manual workload and signal variation. The second assay, based on resazurin staining, measures viability of the biofilm, and it was thoroughly optimized for the strain used, but was then a very simple and fast method to be used for primary screening. The fluorescent resazurin probe is not toxic to the biofilms. In fact, it was also shown in this project that staining the biofilms with resazurin prior to staining with crystal violet had no effect on the latter and they can be used in sequence on the same screening plate. This sequential addition step was indeed a major improvement on the use of reagents and consumables and also shortened the work time. As a third assay in the platform a wheat germ agglutinin based assay was added to evaluate the effect a compound has on the EPS layer. Using this assay it was found that even if compounds might have clear effect on both biomass and viability, the EPS layer can be left untouched or even be increased. This is a clear implication of the importance of using several assays to be able to find “true hits” in a screening setting. In the pilot study of screening for antimicrobial and anti-biofilm effects using a cinchona alkaloid library, one compound was found to have antimicrobial effect against planktonic bacteria and prevent biofilm formation at low micromolar concentration. To eradicate biofilms, a higher concentration was needed. It was also shown that the chemical space occupied by the active compound was slightly different than the rest of the cinchona alkaloids as well as the rest of the compounds used for validatory screening during the optimization processes of the separate assays.

Qualitative Characteristics and Quantitative Measures of Solution's Reliability in Discrete Optimization: Traditional Analytical Approaches, Innovative Computational Methods and Applicability

The purpose of this thesis is twofold. The first and major part is devoted to sensitivity analysis of various discrete optimization problems while the second part addresses methods applied for calculating measures of solution stability and solving multicriteria discrete optimization problems. Despite numerous approaches to stability analysis of discrete optimization problems two major directions can be single out: quantitative and qualitative. Qualitative sensitivity analysis is conducted for multicriteria discrete optimization problems with minisum, minimax and minimin partial criteria. The main results obtained here are necessary and sufficient conditions for different stability types of optimal solutions (or a set of optimal solutions) of the considered problems. Within the framework of quantitative direction various measures of solution stability are investigated. A formula for a quantitative characteristic called stability radius is obtained for the generalized equilibrium situation invariant to changes of game parameters in the case of the H¨older metric. Quality of the problem solution can also be described in terms of robustness analysis. In this work the concepts of accuracy and robustness tolerances are presented for a strategic game with a finite number of players where initial coefficients (costs) of linear payoff functions are subject to perturbations. Investigation of stability radius also aims to devise methods for its calculation. A new metaheuristic approach is derived for calculation of stability radius of an optimal solution to the shortest path problem. The main advantage of the developed method is that it can be potentially applicable for calculating stability radii of NP-hard problems. The last chapter of the thesis focuses on deriving innovative methods based on interactive optimization approach for solving multicriteria combinatorial optimization problems. The key idea of the proposed approach is to utilize a parameterized achievement scalarizing function for solution calculation and to direct interactive procedure by changing weighting coefficients of this function. In order to illustrate the introduced ideas a decision making process is simulated for three objective median location problem. The concepts, models, and ideas collected and analyzed in this thesis create a good and relevant grounds for developing more complicated and integrated models of postoptimal analysis and solving the most computationally challenging problems related to it.

Impact of reliability of supply on long-term development approaches to electricity distribution networks

The Finnish electricity distribution sector, rural areas in particular, is facing major challenges because of the economic regulation, tightening supply security requirements and the ageing network asset. Therefore, the target in the distribution network planning and asset management is to develop and renovate the networks to meet these challenges in compliance with the regulations in an economically feasible way. Concerning supply security, the new Finnish Electricity Market Act limits the maximum duration of electricity supply interruptions to six hours in urban areas and 36 hours in rural areas. This has a significant impact on distribution network planning, especially in rural areas where the distribution networks typically require extensive modifications and renovations to meet the supply security requirements. This doctoral thesis introduces a methodology to analyse electricity distribution system development. The methodology is based on and combines elements of reliability analysis, asset management and economic regulation. The analysis results can be applied, for instance, to evaluate the development of distribution reliability and to consider actions to meet the tightening regulatory requirements. Thus, the methodology produces information for strategic decision-making so that DSOs can respond to challenges arising in the electricity distribution sector. The key contributions of the thesis are a network renovation concept for rural areas, an analysis to assess supply security, and an evaluation of the effects of economic regulation on the strategic network planning. In addition, the thesis demonstrates how the reliability aspect affects the placement of automation devices and how the reserve power can be arranged in a rural area network.