Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

The Effectiveness of Currency Hedging Strategies. Case: Imatra Boards Business Unit of Stora Enso Corp.

Tutkimus tarkastelee vaihtoehtoisia termiinisuojaustrategioita metsäteollisuuden alan tulosyksikössä. Jälkitestauksen tarkoituksena on arvioida vaihtoehtoisten strategioiden tuloksellisuutta suojata case-yrityksen kassavirtoja seuraavan kolmen arviointikriteerin avulla: yksittäisten vieraan valuutan määräisten kassavirtojen vaihtelu; koko vieraan valuutan määräisen kassavirran vaihtelu; suojausvoitot ja -tappiot. Tutkimuksen teoreettinen viitekehys tarkastelee yrityksen päätöksentekoa, valuuttariskien suojausprosessia sekä esittelee yrityksen vaihtoehtoisia suojausstrategioita. Tutkimuksen empiirinen aineisto pohjautuu case- yrityksen historiallisiin myyntilukuihin ja on kerätty yrityksen tietojärjestelmästä. Muu tutkimuksessa käytetty dataon kerätty eri tietokannoista. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat, että suojaaminen vähentää kassavirtojen vaihtelua. Suojaamisen taloudelliset tulokset ovat kuitenkin erittäin riippuvaisia valitusta suojausstrategiasta, joka voi johtaa merkittäviin suojausvoittoihin, mutta yhtä hyvin myos merkittäviin tappioihin. Johdon näkemykset ja riskitoleranssi määrittelevät mitä strategiaa yrityksessä tullaan viime kädessä noudattamaan.

OMXH 25-yhtiöiden valuuttariski ja siltä suojautuminen

Tämän kandidaatintutkielman tavoitteena on selvittää OMXH 25-yhtiöiden altistumista valuuttariskille ja kuinka nämä yhtiöt suojautuvat siltä. Tässä tutkimuksessa on lisäksi selvitetty näiden yhtiöiden tärkeimmät ulkomaanvaluutat ja yhtiöiden suojausstrategioita. Valuuttariskin suuruuden selvittämiseksi yhtiöiden vieraan valuuttaista liikevaihtoa verrattiin yhtiön kokonaisliikevaihtoon. Tutkimuksen aineistona on käytetty yhtiöiden vuosien 2013 ja 2014 tilinpäätöksiä. Aineistosta on lisäksi rajattu pois OMXH 25-yhtiöiden joukosta Nordea, Sampo, Elisa ja Telia Sonera. Nämä yhtiöt rajattiin pois, koska ne soveltuivat huonosti tämän tutkimuksen kohteiksi. Tutkimuksen teoriakehys on rakennettu keskeisten teorioiden ja käsitteiden avulla. Valuuttariski voidaan jakaa kolmeen osaan: transaktioriskiin, ekonomiseen riskiin ja translaatioriskiin. Valuuttariskin suojauksessa käytettävät instrumentit ovat termiinit, optiot, swap-sopimukset ja vieraan valuuttainen velka. Myös suojaamatta jättämisen mahdollisuutta on tutkittu. Tutkimuksessa kävi ilmi yhtiöiden merkittävä altistuminen valuuttariskille liikevaihdolla mitattuna. Yhtiöiden liikevaihdosta lähes 50% tapahtui jossain muussa valuutassa kuin euroissa. Yhtiöt käyttävät valuuttariskiltä suojautumiseen pääasiassa termiinejä, mutta myös muita instrumentteja käytetään jonkin verran. Yhtiöt keskittyvät eniten transaktioriskin suojaamiseen ekonomisen riskin ja tranlaatioriskin jäädessä pienemmälle huomiolle. Myös aikaisemmissa tutkimuksissa on saatu samankaltaisia tuloksia. Viime vuosien voimakkaat valuuttakurssimuutokset ovat vaikuttaneet yhtiöiden tuloksiin negatiivisesti ja erityisesti ruplan arvon voimakas heikentyminen suhteessa euroon aiheutti joillekkin yhtiöille merkittäviä valuuttakurssitappioita. Tärkein vieras valuutta tutkituille yhtiöille oli USA:n dollari. Korkeasta suojausasteesta huolimatta suurinosa tutkituista yhtiöistä kärsi valuuttakurssitappiota kumpanakin tarkasteltuna vuonna.

Value at Risk in Foreign Exchange Risk Management

This thesis examines the suitability of VaR in foreign exchange rate risk management from the perspective of a European investor. The suitability of four different VaR models is evaluated in respect to have insight if VaR is a valuable tool in managing foreign exchange rate risk. The models evaluated are historical method, historical bootstrap method, variance-covariance method and Monte Carlo simulation. The data evaluated are divided into emerging and developed market currencies to have more intriguing analysis. The foreign exchange rate data in this thesis is from 31st January 2000 to 30th April 2014. The results show that the previously mentioned VaR models performance in foreign exchange risk management is not to be considered as a single tool in foreign exchange rate risk management. The variance-covariance method and Monte Carlo simulation performs poorest in both currency portfolios. Both historical methods performed better but should also be considered as an additional tool along with other more sophisticated analysis tools. A comparative study of VaR estimates and forward prices is also included in the thesis. The study reveals that regardless of the expensive hedging cost of emerging market currencies the risk captured by VaR is more expensive and thus FX forward hedging is recommended

Return and Volatility spillovers among stock and Foreign Exchange Markets: Empirical Evidence from selected African Markets

Return and volatility dynamics in financial markets across the world have recently become important for the purpose of asset pricing, portfolio allocation and risk management. However, volatility, which come about as a result of the actions of market participants can help adapt to different situations and perform when it really matters. With recent development and liberalization among financial markets in emerging and frontier markets, the need for how the equity and foreign exchange markets interact and the extent to which return and volatility spillover are spread across countries is of importance to investors and policy makers at large. Financial markets in Africa have received attention leading to investors diversifying into them in times of crisis and contagion effects in developed countries. Regardless of the benefits these markets may offer, investors must be wary of issues such as thin trading, volatility that exists in the equity and currency markets and its related fluctuations. The study employs a VAR-GARCH BEKK model to study the return and volatility dynamics between the stock and foreign exchange sectors and among the equity markets of Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia. The main findings suggest a higher dependence of own return in the stock markets and a one way return spillover from the currencies to the equity markets except for South Africa which has a weaker interrelation among the two markets. There is a relatively limited integration among the equity markets. Return and volatility spillover is mostly uni-directional except for a bi-directional relationship between the equity markets of Egypt and Tunisia. The study implication still proves a benefit for portfolio managers diversifying in these African equity markets, since they are independent of each other and may not be highly affected by the influx of negative news from elsewhere. However, there is the need to be wary of return and volatility spillover between the equity and currency markets, hence devising better hedging strategies to curb them.

POLITICAL RISK IN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN THE RUSSIAN ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR

Russia approved ambitious reform plan for the electricity sector in 2001 including privatisation of the country’s huge thermal generation assets. So far the sector had suffered from power shortages, aging infrastructure, substantial electricity losses, and weak productivity and profitability numbers. There was obvious need for foreign investments and technologies. The reform was rather successful; the generation assets were privatised in auctions in 2007-2008 and three European energy companies, E.On, Enel and Fortum, invested in and obtained together over 10% of the Russian production assets. The novelty of these foreign investments serves unique object for the study. The political risk is involved in the FDI due to the industry’s social and economic importance. The research’s objective was to identify and analyse the political risk that foreign investors face in the Russian electricity sector. The research had qualitative study method and the empirical data was collected by interviewing. The research’s theoretical framework was based on the existing political risk theories and it focused to understand the Russian government in relation to the country’s stability and define both macro-level and micro-level sources of political risk for the foreign direct investments in the sector. The research concludes that the centralised and obscure political decision-making, economic constriction, high level of governmental control in economy and corruption form the country’s internal macro-level risk sources for the foreign investors in the sector. Additionally the retribution due to the companies’ home country actions, possible violent confrontations at the Russian borders and the currency instability are externally originated risk sources. In the electricity industry there is risk of tightened governmental control and increased regulation and taxation. Similarly the company-level risk sources link to the unreformed heating sector, bargaining with the authorities, diplomatic stress between host and home countries and to companies and government’s divergent perspective for the profit-making. The research stresses the foreign companies’ ability to cope with the characteristics of Russian political environment. In addition to frequent political and market risk assessment, the companies need to focus on currency protection against rouble’s rate fluctuation and actively build good company-citizenship in the country. Good relationship is needed with the Russian political authorities. The political risk identification and the research’s conclusive framework also enable political risk study assessments for other industries in Russia

The Middle East in the American quest for world order : ideas of power, economics, and social development in United States foreign policy, 1953-1961

Doctoral dissertation, University of Tampere

The role of presidential advisory systems in US foreign policy-making : the case of the National Security Council and Vietnam, 1953-1961

Doctoral dissertation, University of Joensuu

Optimization of the procedure for removing iron deposits on ceramic filter media

In this thesis, cleaning of ceramic filter media was studied. Mechanisms of fouling and dissolution of iron compounds, as well as methods for cleaning ceramic membranes fouled by iron deposits were studied in the literature part. Cleaning agents and different methods were closer examined in the experimental part of the thesis. Pyrite is found in the geologic strata. It is oxidized to form ferrous ions Fe(II) and ferric ions Fe(III). Fe(III) is further oxidized in the hydrolysis to form ferric hydroxide. Hematite and goethite, for instance, are naturally occurring iron oxidesand hydroxides. In contact with filter media, they can cause severe fouling, which common cleaning techniques competent enough to remove. Mechanisms for the dissolution of iron oxides include the ligand-promoted pathway and the proton-promoted pathway. The dissolution can also be reductive or non-reductive. The most efficient mechanism is the ligand-promoted reductive mechanism that comprises two stages: the induction period and the autocatalytic dissolution.Reducing agents(such as hydroquinone and hydroxylamine hydrochloride), chelating agents (such as EDTA) and organic acids are used for the removal of iron compounds. Oxalic acid is the most effective known cleaning agent for iron deposits. Since formulations are often more effective than organic acids, reducing agents or chelating agents alone, the citrate¿bicarbonate¿dithionite system among others is well studied in the literature. The cleaning is also enhanced with ultrasound and backpulsing.In the experimental part, oxalic acid and nitric acid were studied alone andin combinations. Also citric acid and ascorbic acid among other chemicals were tested. Soaking experiments, experiments with ultrasound and experiments for alternative methods to apply the cleaning solution on the filter samples were carried out. Permeability and ISO Brightness measurements were performed to examine the influence of the cleaning methods on the samples. Inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) analysis of the solutions was carried out to determine the dissolved metals.