Empirical Tests of Impacts of Rationing: The Case of Poland in Transition, February 2000

This study tests the theory of rationing, examining changes in household consumption behavior during the transition to a market economy in Poland, 1987–92. A model of consumption under rationing is developed and fitted to prereform quarterly data from the Polish Household Budget Survey. Virtual prices, prices at which consumers would have voluntarily chosen the rationed levels of goods, are derived for food and housing. The prereform Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model with rationing is estimated. Estimates from the virtual AIDS yield plausible values for price and income elasticities. The AIDS model (without rationing) is also fitted to postreform quarterly household survey data for comparison and evaluation. When the two sets of results are compared, the impacts of rationing are consistent with the theory. Own-price elasticities for nonrationed goods are larger after the reform, and there is increased complementarity and decreased substitutability for the nonrationed goods. The results for Poland show a 75 percent decline in real household welfare over the transition and this welfare loss is one-third the value obtained using reported prices.

Implementing the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide: Technical Report, May 2005

With the release of the new Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG), pavement design has taken a “quantum” leap forward. The current 1993 design guide is solidly based on the empirical interpretation of the results of the 1960 American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) Road Test. This report seeks to outline the technical aspects of the new MEPDG. Full detail is essentially impossible and impractical, since the release of the MEPDG was accompanied by eighteen volumes of technical justification and background. Consequently, this report seeks only to provide a potential user with a practical understanding of the workings of the new guide, with only sufficient technical depth to aid in understanding.

Quality and Competition: An Empirical Analysis across Industries, March 2006

This paper empirically explores the link between quality and concentration in a cross-section of manufactured goods. Using concentration data and product quality indicators, an ordered probit estimation explores the impact of concentration on quality that is defined as an index of quality characteristics. The results demonstrate that market concentration and quality are positively correlated across different industries. When industry concentration increases, the likelihood of the product being higher quality increases and the likelihood of observing a lower quality decreases.

Changing Diets in China’s Cities: Empirical Fact or Urban Legend, November 2006

China’s economic reforms, which began in 1978, resulted in remarkable income growth, and urban Chinese consumers have responded by dramatically increasing their consumption of meat, other livestock products, and fruits and by decreasing consumption of grain-based foods. Economic prosperity, a growing openness to international markets, and domestic policy reforms have changed the food marketing environment for Chinese consumers and may have contributed to shifts in consumer preferences. The objective of this paper is to uncover evidence of structural change in food consumption among urban residents in China. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are used to test for structural change in aggregate household data from 1981 to 2004. The tests provided a reasonably clear picture of changing food consumption over the study period.

Investigation of Electromagnetic Gauges for Determining In-Place HMA Density, 2007

Density is an important component of hot-mix asphalt (HMA) pavement quality and long-term performance. Insufficient density of an in-place HMA pavement is the most frequently cited construction-related performance problem. This study evaluated the use of electromagnetic gauges to nondestructively determine densities. Field and laboratory measurements were taken with two electromagnetic gauges—a PaveTracker and a Pavement Quality Indicator (PQI). Test data were collected in the field during and after paving operations and also in a laboratory on field mixes compacted in the lab. This study revealed that several mix- and project-specific factors affect electromagnetic gauge readings. Consequently, the implementation of these gauges will likely need to be done utilizing a test strip on a project- and mix-specific basis to appropriately identify an adjustment factor for the specific electromagnetic gauge being used for quality control and quality assurance (QC/QA) testing. The substantial reduction in testing time that results from employing electromagnetic gauges rather than coring makes it possible for more readings to be used in the QC/QA process with real-time information without increasing the testing costs.

Iowa Railroad Traffic Density, July 1, 2009

Iowa railroad traffic density.

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analysing Traffice Safety Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this slight, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

From Empirical Bayes to Full Bayes: Methods for Analyzubg Traffic Safey Data, October 25, 2004

Traffic safety engineers are among the early adopters of Bayesian statistical tools for analyzing crash data. As in many other areas of application, empirical Bayes methods were their first choice, perhaps because they represent an intuitively appealing, yet relatively easy to implement alternative to purely classical approaches. With the enormous progress in numerical methods made in recent years and with the availability of free, easy to use software that permits implementing a fully Bayesian approach, however, there is now ample justification to progress towards fully Bayesian analyses of crash data. The fully Bayesian approach, in particular as implemented via multi-level hierarchical models, has many advantages over the empirical Bayes approach. In a full Bayesian analysis, prior information and all available data are seamlessly integrated into posterior distributions on which practitioners can base their inferences. All uncertainties are thus accounted for in the analyses and there is no need to pre-process data to obtain Safety Performance Functions and other such prior estimates of the effect of covariates on the outcome of interest. In this light, fully Bayesian methods may well be less costly to implement and may result in safety estimates with more realistic standard errors. In this manuscript, we present the full Bayesian approach to analyzing traffic safety data and focus on highlighting the differences between the empirical Bayes and the full Bayes approaches. We use an illustrative example to discuss a step-by-step Bayesian analysis of the data and to show some of the types of inferences that are possible within the full Bayesian framework.

Task 4: Testing Iowa Portland Cement Concrete Mixtures for the AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Procedure, May 2008

The present research project was designed to identify the typical Iowa material input values that are required by the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) for the Level 3 concrete pavement design. It was also designed to investigate the existing equations that might be used to predict Iowa pavement concrete for the Level 2 pavement design. In this project, over 20,000 data were collected from the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) and other sources. These data, most of which were concrete compressive strength, slump, air content, and unit weight data, were synthesized and their statistical parameters (such as the mean values and standard variations) were analyzed. Based on the analyses, the typical input values of Iowa pavement concrete, such as 28-day compressive strength (f’c), splitting tensile strength (fsp), elastic modulus (Ec), and modulus of rupture (MOR), were evaluated. The study indicates that the 28-day MOR of Iowa concrete is 646 + 51 psi, very close to the MEPDG default value (650 psi). The 28-day Ec of Iowa concrete (based only on two available data of the Iowa Curling and Warping project) is 4.82 + 0.28x106 psi, which is quite different from the MEPDG default value (3.93 x106 psi); therefore, the researchers recommend re-evaluating after more Iowa test data become available. The drying shrinkage (εc) of a typical Iowa concrete (C-3WR-C20 mix) was tested at Concrete Technology Laboratory (CTL). The test results show that the ultimate shrinkage of the concrete is about 454 microstrain and the time for the concrete to reach 50% of ultimate shrinkage is at 32 days; both of these values are very close to the MEPDG default values. The comparison of the Iowa test data and the MEPDG default values, as well as the recommendations on the input values to be used in MEPDG for Iowa PCC pavement design, are summarized in Table 20 of this report. The available equations for predicting the above-mentioned concrete properties were also assembled. The validity of these equations for Iowa concrete materials was examined. Multiple-parameters nonlinear regression analyses, along with the artificial neural network (ANN) method, were employed to investigate the relationships among Iowa concrete material properties and to modify the existing equations so as to be suitable for Iowa concrete materials. However, due to lack of necessary data sets, the relationships between Iowa concrete properties were established based on the limited data from CP Tech Center’s projects and ISU classes only. The researchers suggest that the resulting relationships be used by Iowa pavement design engineers as references only. The present study furthermore indicates that appropriately documenting concrete properties, including flexural strength, elastic modulus, and information on concrete mix design, is essential for updating the typical Iowa material input values and providing rational prediction equations for concrete pavement design in the future.

Investigation of Electromagnetic Gauges for Determining In-Place HMA Density, Final Report, May 2007

Density is an important component of hot-mix asphalt (HMA) pavement quality and long-term performance. Insufficient density of an in-place HMA pavement is the most frequently cited construction-related performance problem. This study evaluated the use of electromagnetic gauges to nondestructively determine densities. Field and laboratory measurements were taken with two electromagnetic gauges—a PaveTracker and a Pavement Quality Indicator (PQI). Test data were collected in the field during and after paving operations and also in a laboratory on field mixes compacted in the lab. This study revealed that several mix- and project-specific factors affect electromagnetic gauge readings. Consequently, the implementation of these gauges will likely need to be done utilizing a test strip on a project- and mix-specific basis to appropriately identify an adjustment factor for the specific electromagnetic gauge being used for quality control and quality assurance (QC/QA) testing. The substantial reduction in testing time that results from employing electromagnetic gauges rather than coring makes it possible for more readings to be used in the QC/QA process with real-time information without increasing the testing costs.

Iowa Railroad Traffic Density, July 1, 2011

Iowa railroad traffic density.

Quality Control/Quality Assurance Testing for Joint Density and Segregation of Asphalt Mixtures, TR-623, 2013

Longitudinal joint quality control/assurance is essential to the successful performance of asphalt pavements and it has received considerable amount of attention in recent years. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the level of compaction at the longitudinal joint and determine the effect of segregation on the longitudinal joint performance. Five paving projects with the use of traditional butt joint, infrared joint heater, edge restraint by milling and modified butt joint with the hot pinch longitudinal joint construction techniques were selected in this study. For each project, field density and permeability tests were made and cores from the pavement were obtained for in-lab permeability, air void and indirect tensile strength. Asphalt content and gradations were also obtained to determine the joint segregation. In general, this study finds that the minimum required joint density should be around 90.0% of the theoretical maximum density based on the AASHTO T166 method. The restrained-edge by milling and butt joint with the infrared heat treatment construction methods both create the joint density higher than this 90.0% limit. Traditional butt joint exhibits lower density and higher permeability than the criterion. In addition, all of the projects appear to have segregation at the longitudinal joint except for the edge-restraint by milling method.

MEPDG Work Plan Task No. 5: Characterization of Unbound Materials (Soils/Aggregates) for Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide, 2009

The resilient modulus (MR) input parameters in the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) program have a significant effect on the projected pavement performance. The MEPDG program uses three different levels of inputs depending on the desired level of accuracy. The primary objective of this research was to develop a laboratory testing program utilizing the Iowa DOT servo-hydraulic machine system for evaluating typical Iowa unbound materials and to establish a database of input values for MEPDG analysis. This was achieved by carrying out a detailed laboratory testing program designed in accordance with the AASHTO T307 resilient modulus test protocol using common Iowa unbound materials. The program included laboratory tests to characterize basic physical properties of the unbound materials, specimen preparation and repeated load triaxial tests to determine the resilient modulus. The MEPDG resilient modulus input parameter library for Iowa typical unbound pavement materials was established from the repeated load triaxial MR test results. This library includes the non-linear, stress-dependent resilient modulus model coefficients values for level 1 analysis, the unbound material properties values correlated to resilient modulus for level 2 analysis, and the typical resilient modulus values for level 3 analysis. The resilient modulus input parameters library can be utilized when designing low volume roads in the absence of any basic soil testing. Based on the results of this study, the use of level 2 analysis for MEPDG resilient modulus input is recommended since the repeated load triaxial test for level 1 analysis is complicated, time consuming, expensive, and requires sophisticated equipment and skilled operators.

MEPDG Work Plan Task No. 7: Existing Pavement Input Information for the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide, 2009

The objective of this study is to systematically evaluate the Iowa Department of Transportation’s (DOT’s) existing Pavement Management Information System (PMIS) with respect to the input information required for Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) rehabilitation analysis and design. To accomplish this objective, all of available PMIS data for interstate and primary roads in Iowa were retrieved from the Iowa DOT PMIS. The retrieved data were evaluated with respect to the input requirements and outputs for the latest version of the MEPDG software (version 1.0). The input parameters that are required for MEPDG HMA rehabilitation design, but currently unavailable in the Iowa DOT PMIS were identified. The differences in the specific measurement metrics used and their units for some of the pavement performance measures between the Iowa DOT PMIS and MEPDG were identified and discussed. Based on the results of this study, it is recommended that the Iowa DOT PMIS should be updated, if possible, to include the identified parameters that are currently unavailable, but are required for MEPDG rehabilitation design. Similarly, the measurement units of distress survey results in the Iowa DOT PMIS should be revised to correspond to those of MEPDG performance predictions. *******************Large File**************************

MEPDG Work Plan Task No. 8: Validation of Pavement Performance Curves for the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide, 2009

The objective of this research is to determine whether the nationally calibrated performance models used in the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) provide a reasonable prediction of actual field performance, and if the desired accuracy or correspondence exists between predicted and monitored performance for Iowa conditions. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify the MEPDG input parameters and the MEPDG verification/calibration process. Sensitivities of MEPDG input parameters to predictions were studied using different versions of the MEPDG software. Based on literature review and sensitivity analysis, a detailed verification procedure was developed. A total of sixteen different types of pavement sections across Iowa, not used for national calibration in NCHRP 1-47A, were selected. A database of MEPDG inputs and the actual pavement performance measures for the selected pavement sites were prepared for verification. The accuracy of the MEPDG performance models for Iowa conditions was statistically evaluated. The verification testing showed promising results in terms of MEPDG’s performance prediction accuracy for Iowa conditions. Recalibrating the MEPDG performance models for Iowa conditions is recommended to improve the accuracy of predictions. ****************** Large File**************************