22 resultados para Predictive-value


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Background: We aim to investigate the possibility of using 18F-positron emission tomography/computer tomography (PET-CT) to predict the histopathologic response in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC) treated with preoperative chemoradiation (CRT). Methods: The study included 50 patients with LARC treated with preoperative CRT. All patients were evaluated by PET-CT before and after CRT, and results were compared to histopathologic response quantified by tumour regression grade (patients with TRG 1-2 being defined as responders and patients with grade 3-5 as non-responders). Furthermore, the predictive value of metabolic imaging for pathologic complete response (ypCR) was investigated. Results: Responders and non-responders showed statistically significant differences according to Mandard's criteria for maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) before and after CRT with a specificity of 76,6% and a positive predictive value of 66,7%. Furthermore, SUVmax values after CRT were able to differentiate patients with ypCR with a sensitivity of 63% and a specificity of 74,4% (positive predictive value 41,2% and negative predictive value 87,9%); This rather low sensitivity and specificity determined that PET-CT was only able to distinguish 7 cases of ypCR from a total of 11 patients. Conclusions: We conclude that 18-F PET-CT performed five to seven weeks after the end of CRT can visualise functional tumour response in LARC. In contrast, metabolic imaging with 18-F PET-CT is not able to predict patients with ypCR accurately

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Background. The use of hospital discharge administrative data (HDAD) has been recommended for automating, improving, even substituting, population-based cancer registries. The frequency of false positive and false negative cases recommends local validation. Methods. The aim of this study was to detect newly diagnosed, false positive and false negative cases of cancer from hospital discharge claims, using four Spanish population-based cancer registries as the gold standard. Prostate cancer was used as a case study. Results. A total of 2286 incident cases of prostate cancer registered in 2000 were used for validation. In the most sensitive algorithm (that using five diagnostic codes), estimates for Sensitivity ranged from 14.5% (CI95% 10.3-19.6) to 45.7% (CI95% 41.4-50.1). In the most predictive algorithm (that using five diagnostic and five surgical codes) Positive Predictive Value estimates ranged from 55.9% (CI95% 42.4-68.8) to 74.3% (CI95% 67.0-80.6). The most frequent reason for false positive cases was the number of prevalent cases inadequately considered as newly diagnosed cancers, ranging from 61.1% to 82.3% of false positive cases. The most frequent reason for false negative cases was related to the number of cases not attended in hospital settings. In this case, figures ranged from 34.4% to 69.7% of false negative cases, in the most predictive algorithm. Conclusions. HDAD might be a helpful tool for cancer registries to reach their goals. The findings suggest that, for automating cancer registries, algorithms combining diagnoses and procedures are the best option. However, for cancer surveillance purposes, in those cancers like prostate cancer in which care is not only hospital-based, combining inpatient and outpatient information will be required.

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Background. A software based tool has been developed (Optem) to allow automatize the recommendations of the Canadian Multiple Sclerosis Working Group for optimizing MS treatment in order to avoid subjective interpretation. METHODS: Treatment Optimization Recommendations (TORs) were applied to our database of patients treated with IFN beta1a IM. Patient data were assessed during year 1 for disease activity, and patients were assigned to 2 groups according to TOR: "change treatment" (CH) and "no change treatment" (NCH). These assessments were then compared to observed clinical outcomes for disease activity over the following years. RESULTS: We have data on 55 patients. The "change treatment" status was assigned to 22 patients, and "no change treatment" to 33 patients. The estimated sensitivity and specificity according to last visit status were 73.9% and 84.4%. During the following years, the Relapse Rate was always higher in the "change treatment" group than in the "no change treatment" group (5 y; CH: 0.7, NCH: 0.07; p < 0.001, 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.536, NCH: 0.34). We obtained the same results with the EDSS (4 y; CH: 3.53, NCH: 2.55, annual progression rate in 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.29, NCH: 0.13). CONCLUSION: Applying TOR at the first year of therapy allowed accurate prediction of continued disease activity in relapses and disability progression.

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Background: Numerous hypermethylated genes have been reported in breast cancer, and the silencing of these genes plays an important role in carcinogenesis, tumor progression and diagnosis. These hypermethylated promoters are very rarely found in normal breast. It has been suggested that aberrant hypermethylation may be useful as a biomarker, with implications for breast cancer etiology, diagnosis, and management. The relationship between primary neoplasm and metastasis remains largely unknown. There has been no comprehensive comparative study on the clinical usefulness of tumor-associated methylated DNA biomarkers in primary breast carcinoma and metastatic breast carcinoma. The objective of the present study was to investigate the association between clinical extension of breast cancer and methylation status of Estrogen Receptor1 (ESR1) and Stratifin (14-3-3-σ) gene promoters in disease-free and metastatic breast cancer patients. Methods: We studied two cohorts of patients: 77 patients treated for breast cancer with no signs of disease, and 34 patients with metastatic breast cancer. DNA was obtained from serum samples, and promoter methylation status was determined by using DNA bisulfite modification and quantitative methylation-specific PCR. Results: Serum levels of methylated gene promoter 14-3-3-σ significantly differed between Control and Metastatic Breast Cancer groups (P < 0.001), and between Disease-Free and Metastatic Breast Cancer groups (P < 0.001). The ratio of the 14-3-3-σ level before the first chemotherapy cycle to the level just before administration of the second chemotherapy cycle was defined as the Biomarker Response Ratio [BRR]. We calculated BRR values for the "continuous decline" and "rise-and-fall" groups. Subsequent ROC analysis showed a sensitivity of 75% (95% CI: 47.6 - 86.7) and a specificity of 66.7% (95% CI: 41.0 - 86.7) to discriminate between the groups for a cut-off level of BRR = 2.39. The area under the ROC curve (Z = 0.804 ± 0.074) indicates that this test is a good approach to post-treatment prognosis. Conclusions: The relationship of 14-3-3-σ with breast cancer metastasis and progression found in this study suggests a possible application of 14-3-3-σ as a biomarker to screen for metastasis and to follow up patients treated for metastatic breast cancer, monitoring their disease status and treatment response.

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INTRODUCTION Although several parameters have been proposed to predict the hemodynamic response to fluid expansion in critically ill patients, most of them are invasive or require the use of special monitoring devices. The aim of this study is to determine whether noninvasive evaluation of respiratory variation of brachial artery peak velocity flow measured using Doppler ultrasound could predict fluid responsiveness in mechanically ventilated patients. METHODS We conducted a prospective clinical research in a 17-bed multidisciplinary ICU and included 38 mechanically ventilated patients for whom fluid administration was planned due to the presence of acute circulatory failure. Volume expansion (VE) was performed with 500 mL of a synthetic colloid. Patients were classified as responders if stroke volume index (SVi) increased >or= 15% after VE. The respiratory variation in Vpeakbrach (DeltaVpeakbrach) was calculated as the difference between maximum and minimum values of Vpeakbrach over a single respiratory cycle, divided by the mean of the two values and expressed as a percentage. Radial arterial pressure variation (DeltaPPrad) and stroke volume variation measured using the FloTrac/Vigileo system (DeltaSVVigileo), were also calculated. RESULTS VE increased SVi by >or= 15% in 19 patients (responders). At baseline, DeltaVpeakbrach, DeltaPPrad and DeltaSVVigileo were significantly higher in responder than nonresponder patients [14 vs 8%; 18 vs. 5%; 13 vs 8%; P < 0.0001, respectively). A DeltaVpeakbrach value >10% predicted fluid responsiveness with a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 95%. A DeltaPPrad value >10% and a DeltaSVVigileo >11% predicted volume responsiveness with a sensitivity of 95% and 79%, and a specificity of 95% and 89%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Respiratory variations in brachial artery peak velocity could be a feasible tool for the noninvasive assessment of fluid responsiveness in patients with mechanical ventilatory support and acute circulatory failure. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT00890071.

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INTRODUCTION No definitive data are available regarding the value of switching to an alternative TNF antagonist in rheumatoid arthritis patients who fail to respond to the first one. The aim of this study was to evaluate treatment response in a clinical setting based on HAQ improvement and EULAR response criteria in RA patients who were switched to a second or a third TNF antagonist due to failure with the first one. METHODS This was an observational, prospective study of a cohort of 417 RA patients treated with TNF antagonists in three university hospitals in Spain between January 1999 and December 2005. A database was created at the participating centres, with well-defined operational instructions. The main outcome variables were analyzed using parametric or non-parametric tests depending on the level of measurement and distribution of each variable. RESULTS Mean (+/- SD) DAS-28 on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 5.9 (+/- 2.0), 5.1 (+/- 1.5) and 6.1 (+/- 1.1). At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 3.3 (+/- 1.6; Delta = -2.6; p > 0.0001), 4.2 (+/- 1.5; Delta = -1.1; p = 0.0001) and 5.4 (+/- 1.7; Delta = -0.7; p = 0.06). For the first TNF antagonist, DAS-28-based EULAR response level was good in 42% and moderate in 33% of patients. The second TNF antagonist yielded a good response in 20% and no response in 53% of patients, while the third one yielded a good response in 28% and no response in 72%. Mean baseline HAQ on starting the first, second and third TNF antagonist was 1.61, 1.52 and 1.87, respectively. At the end of follow-up, it decreased to 1.12 (Delta = -0.49; p < 0.0001), 1.31 (Delta = -0.21, p = 0.004) and 1.75 (Delta = -0.12; p = 0.1), respectively. Sixty four percent of patients had a clinically important improvement in HAQ (defined as > or = -0.22) with the first TNF antagonist and 46% with the second. CONCLUSION A clinically significant effect size was seen in less than half of RA patients cycling to a second TNF antagonist.

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Also known as ferroxidase ceruloplasmin, belongs to the family of inflammation-sensitive proteins, and its main function to transport copper in the blood. Although, in addition to this transport function, at present, there are numerous studies that have attempted to use the determination of serum concentrations as a predictive indicator of cardiovascular risk in patients who are overweight or obese. The results of this study confirm the existence of a significant correlation between serum ceruloplasmin and nutritional status of the subjects, which means that for the population of students assessed, serum levels of this protein are an important predictor the risk of cardiovascular disease.

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BACKGROUND Clinical predictors for fatal pulmonary embolism (PE) in patients with venous thromboembolism have never been studied. METHODS AND RESULTS Using data from the international prospective Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbolica venosa (RIETE) registry about patients with objectively confirmed symptomatic acute venous thromboembolism, we determined independent predictive factors for fatal PE. Between March 2001 and July 2006, 15520 consecutive patients (mean age+/-SD, 66.3+/-16.9 years; 49.7% men) with acute venous thromboembolism were included. Symptomatic deep-vein thrombosis without symptomatic PE was observed in 58.0% (n=9008) of patients, symptomatic nonmassive PE in 40.4% (n=6264), and symptomatic massive PE in 1.6% (n=248). At 3 months, the cumulative rates of overall mortality and fatal PE were 8.65% and 1.68%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, patients with symptomatic nonmassive PE at presentation exhibited a 5.42-fold higher risk of fatal PE compared with patients with deep-vein thrombosis without symptomatic PE (P<0.001). The risk of fatal PE was multiplied by 17.5 in patients presenting with a symptomatic massive PE. Other clinical factors independently associated with an increased risk of fatal PE were immobilization for neurological disease, age >75 years, and cancer. CONCLUSIONS PE remains a potentially fatal disease. The clinical predictors identified in the present study should be included in any clinical risk stratification scheme to optimally adapt the treatment of PE to the risk of the fatal outcome.

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INTRODUCTION According to several series, hospital hyponutrition involves 30-50% of hospitalized patients. The high prevalence justifies the need for early detection from admission. There several classical screening tools that show important limitations in their systematic application in daily clinical practice. OBJECTIVES To analyze the relationship between hyponutrition, detected by our screening method, and mortality, hospital stay, or re-admissions. To analyze, as well, the relationship between hyponutrition and prescription of nutritional support. To compare different nutritional screening methods at admission on a random sample of hospitalized patients. Validation of the INFORNUT method for nutritional screening. MATERIAL AND METHODS In a previous phase from the study design, a retrospective analysis with data from the year 2003 was carried out in order to know the situation of hyponutrition in Virgen de la Victoria Hospital, at Malaga, gathering data from the MBDS (Minimal Basic Data Set), laboratory analysis of nutritional risk (FILNUT filter), and prescription of nutritional support. In the experimental phase, a cross-sectional cohort study was done with a random sample of 255 patients, on May of 2004. Anthropometrical study, Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Mini-Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS), Gassull's method, CONUT and INFORNUT were done. The settings of the INFORNUT filter were: albumin < 3.5 g/dL, and/or total proteins <5 g/dL, and/or prealbumin <18 mg/dL, with or without total lymphocyte count < 1.600 cells/mm3 and/or total cholesterol <180 mg/dL. In order to compare the different methods, a gold standard is created based on the recommendations of the SENPE on anthropometrical and laboratory data. The statistical association analysis was done by the chi-squared test (a: 0.05) and agreement by the k index. RESULTS In the study performed in the previous phase, it is observed that the prevalence of hospital hyponutrition is 53.9%. One thousand six hundred and forty four patients received nutritional support, of which 66.9% suffered from hyponutrition. We also observed that hyponutrition is one of the factors favoring the increase in mortality (hyponourished patients 15.19% vs. non-hyponourished 2.58%), hospital stay (hyponourished patients 20.95 days vs. non-hyponourished 8.75 days), and re-admissions (hyponourished patients 14.30% vs. non-hyponourished 6%). The results from the experimental study are as follows: the prevalence of hyponutrition obtained by the gold standard was 61%, INFORNUT 60%. Agreement levels between INFORNUT, CONUT, and GASSULL are good or very good between them (k: 0.67 INFORNUT with CONUT, and k: 0.94 INFORNUT and GASSULL) and wit the gold standard (k: 0.83; k: 0.64 CONUT; k: 0.89 GASSULL). However, structured tests (SGA, MNA, NRS) show low agreement indexes with the gold standard and laboratory or mixed tests (Gassull), although they show a low to intermediate level of agreement when compared one to each other (k: 0.489 NRS with SGA). INFORNUT shows sensitivity of 92.3%, a positive predictive value of 94.1%, and specificity of 91.2%. After the filer phase, a preliminary report is sent, on which anthropometrical and intake data are added and a Nutritional Risk Report is done. CONCLUSIONS Hyponutrition prevalence in our study (60%) is similar to that found by other authors. Hyponutrition is associated to increased mortality, hospital stay, and re-admission rate. There are no tools that have proven to be effective to show early hyponutrition at the hospital setting without important applicability limitations. FILNUT, as the first phase of the filter process of INFORNUT represents a valid tool: it has sensitivity and specificity for nutritional screening at admission. The main advantages of the process would be early detection of patients with risk for hyponutrition, having a teaching and sensitization function to health care staff implicating them in nutritional assessment of their patients, and doing a hyponutrition diagnosis and nutritional support need in the discharge report that would be registered by the Clinical Documentation Department. Therefore, INFORNUT would be a universal screening method with a good cost-effectiveness ratio.

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BACKGROUND Taxanes are among the most active drugs for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer, and, as a consequence, they have also been studied in the adjuvant setting. METHODS After breast cancer surgery, women with lymph node-positive disease were randomly assigned to treatment with fluorouracil, epirubicin, and cyclophosphamide (FEC) or with FEC followed by weekly paclitaxel (FEC-P). The primary endpoint of study-5-year disease-free survival (DFS)-was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis. Secondary endpoints included overall survival and analysis of the prognostic and predictive value of clinical and molecular (hormone receptors by immunohistochemistry and HER2 by fluorescence in situ hybridization) markers. Associations and interactions were assessed with a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model for DFS for the following covariates: age, menopausal status, tumor size, lymph node status, type of chemotherapy, tumor size, positive lymph nodes, HER2 status, and hormone receptor status. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS Among the 1246 eligible patients, estimated rates of DFS at 5 years were 78.5% in the FEC-P arm and 72.1% in the FEC arm (difference = 6.4%, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.6% to 11.2%; P = .006). FEC-P treatment was associated with a 23% reduction in the risk of relapse compared with FEC treatment (146 relapses in the 614 patients in the FEC-P arm vs 193 relapses in the 632 patients in the FEC arm, hazard ratio [HR] = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.62 to 0.95; P = .022) and a 22% reduction in the risk of death (73 and 95 deaths, respectively, HR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.57 to 1.06; P = .110). Among the 928 patients for whom tumor samples were centrally analyzed, type of chemotherapy (FEC vs FEC-P) (P = .017), number of involved axillary lymph nodes (P < .001), tumor size (P = .020), hormone receptor status (P = .004), and HER2 status (P = .006) were all associated with DFS. We found no statistically significant interaction between HER2 status and paclitaxel treatment or between hormone receptor status and paclitaxel treatment. CONCLUSIONS Among patients with operable breast cancer, FEC-P treatment statistically significantly reduced the risk of relapse compared with FEC as adjuvant therapy.

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The evaluation of sepsis severity is complicated by the highly variable and nonspecific nature of clinical signs and symptoms. We studied routinely used biomarkers together with clinical parameters to compare their prognostic value for severe sepsis and evaluate their usefulness.

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Novel biomarkers are required to improve prognostic predictions obtained with lung cancer staging systems. This study of 62 surgically-treated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients had two objectives: i) to compare the predictive value of T-stage classifications between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of the Tumor, Node, and Metastasis staging system (TNM); and ii) to examine the association of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 gene expression with survival and outcomes. Multivariate and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed, examining the relationship of survival with T-stage, recurrence, and TNM-stage (by each TNM edition) and with the single/combined expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes. Five-year survival rates only significantly differed as a function of T-stage in patients without recurrence when estimated using the 6(th) edition of the TNM classification and only in patients in pathologic TNM-stage IA using the 7(th). Overall survival for patients with elevated expression of both genes was 13.5 months in those with adenocarcinoma and 34.6 months in those with squamous cell carcinoma. Overall survival was 30.4 months in patients with Pkp1 gene upregulation and 30.9 months in those with Krt15 gene upregulation. In conclusion, survival estimations as a function of T-staging differed between the 6(th) and 7(th) editions of TNM. Overall survival differed according to the expression of Pkp1 and/or Krt15 genes, although this relationship did not reach statistical significance.

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Background: The objective was to investigate the association between BMI and single nucleotide polymorphisms previously identified of obesity-related genes in two Spanish populations. Forty SNPs in 23 obesity-related genes were evaluated in a rural population characterized by a high prevalence of obesity (869 subjects, mean age 46 yr, 62% women, 36% obese) and in an urban population (1425 subjects, mean age 54 yr, 50% women, 19% obese). Genotyping was assessed by using SNPlex and PLINK for the association analysis. Results: Polymorphisms of the FTO were significantly associated with BMI, in the rural population (beta 0.87, p-value <0.001). None of the other SNPs showed significant association after Bonferroni correction in the two populations or in the pooled analysis. A weighted genetic risk score (wGRS) was constructed using the risk alleles of the Tag-SNPs with a positive Beta parameter in both populations. From the first to the fifth quintile of the score, the BMI increased 0.45 kg/m2 in Hortega and 2.0 kg/m2 in Pizarra. Overall, the obesity predictive value was low (less than 1%). Conclusion: The risk associated with polymorphisms is low and the overall effect on BMI or obesity prediction is minimal. A weighted genetic risk score based on genes mainly acting through central nervous system mechanisms was associated with BMI but it yields minimal clinical prediction for the obesity risk in the general population.

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Recurrent breast cancer occurring after the initial treatment is associated with poor outcome. A bimodal relapse pattern after surgery for primary tumor has been described with peaks of early and late recurrence occurring at about 2 and 5 years, respectively. Although several clinical and pathological features have been used to discriminate between low- and high-risk patients, the identification of molecular biomarkers with prognostic value remains an unmet need in the current management of breast cancer. Using microarray-based technology, we have performed a microRNA expression analysis in 71 primary breast tumors from patients that either remained disease-free at 5 years post-surgery (group A) or developed early (group B) or late (group C) recurrence. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering of microRNA expression data segregated tumors in two groups, mainly corresponding to patients with early recurrence and those with no recurrence. Microarray data analysis and RT-qPCR validation led to the identification of a set of 5 microRNAs (the 5-miRNA signature) differentially expressed between these two groups: miR-149, miR-10a, miR-20b, miR-30a-3p and miR-342-5p. All five microRNAs were down-regulated in tumors from patients with early recurrence. We show here that the 5-miRNA signature defines a high-risk group of patients with shorter relapse-free survival and has predictive value to discriminate non-relapsing versus early-relapsing patients (AUC = 0.993, p-value<0.05). Network analysis based on miRNA-target interactions curated by public databases suggests that down-regulation of the 5-miRNA signature in the subset of early-relapsing tumors would result in an overall increased proliferative and angiogenic capacity. In summary, we have identified a set of recurrence-related microRNAs with potential prognostic value to identify patients who will likely develop metastasis early after primary breast surgery.

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Introduct ion The Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) indicates that a lactate (LT) concentration greater than 4ımmol/l indicates early resuscitation bundles. However, several recent studies have suggested that LT values lower than 4ımmol/l may be a prognostic marker of adverse outcome. The aim of this study was to identify clinical and analytical prognostic parameters in severe sepsis (SS) or septic shock (ShS) according to quartiles of blood LT concentration. Methods A cohort study was designed in a polyvalent ICU. We studied demographic, clinical and analytical parameters in 148 critically ill adults, within 24ıhours from SS or ShS onset according to SSC criteria. We tested for diı erences in baseline characteristics by lactate interval using a KruskalıWallis test for continuous data or a chi-square test for categorical data and reported the median and interquartile ranges; SPSS version 15.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). Results We analyzed 148 consecutive episodes of SS (16%) or ShS (84%). The median age was 64 (interquartile range, 48.7 to 71)ıyears; male: 60%. The main sources of infection were respiratory tract 38% and intra-abdomen 45%; 70.7% had medical pathology. Mortality at 28ıdays was 22.7%. Quartiles of blood LT concentration were quartile 1 (Q1): 1.87ımmol/l or less, quartile 2 (Q2): 1.88 to 2.69ımmol/l, quartile 3 (Q3): 2.7 to 4.06ımmol/l, and quartile 4 (Q4): 4.07ımmol/l or greater (Tableı1). The median LT concentrations of each quartile were 1.43 (Q1), 2.2 (Q2), 3.34 (Q3), and 5.1 (Q4) mmol/l (Pı<0.001). The diı erences between these quartiles were that the patients in Q1 had signiı cantly lower APACHE II scores (Pı=ı0.04), SOFA score (Pı=ı0.024), number of organ failures (NOF) (Pı<0.001) and ICU mortality (Pı=ı0.028), compared with patients in Q2, Q3 and Q4. Patients in Q1 had signiı cantly higher cholesterol (Pı=ı0.06) and lower procalcitonin (Pı=ı0.05) at enrolment. At the extremes, patients in Q1 had decreased 28-day mortality (Pı=ı0.023) and, patients in Q4 had increased 28-day mortality, compared with the other quartiles of patients (Pı=ı0.009). Interestingly, patients in Q2 had signiı cant increased mortality compared with patients in Q1 (Pı=ı0.043), whereas the patients in Q2 had no signiı cant diı erence in 28-day mortality compared with patients in Q3. Conclusion Adverse outcomes and several potential risk factors, including organ failure, are signiı cantly associated with higher quartiles of LT concentrations. It may be useful to revise the cutoı value of lactate according to the SSC (4 mmol/l).