Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks (Part 2): bayesian evaluations for results of black toner analyses in forensic document examination

This paper presents and discusses the use of Bayesian procedures - introduced through the use of Bayesian networks in Part I of this series of papers - for 'learning' probabilities from data. The discussion will relate to a set of real data on characteristics of black toners commonly used in printing and copying devices. Particular attention is drawn to the incorporation of the proposed procedures as an integral part in probabilistic inference schemes (notably in the form of Bayesian networks) that are intended to address uncertainties related to particular propositions of interest (e.g., whether or not a sample originates from a particular source). The conceptual tenets of the proposed methodologies are presented along with aspects of their practical implementation using currently available Bayesian network software.

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theory

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theoryCette thèse est composée de trois essais qui portent sur l'efficacité des évaluations récursives de la distribution du montant total des sinistres d'un portefeuille de polices d'assurance au cours d'un période donnée. Le calcul de sa fonction de probabilité ou de quantités liées à cette distribution apparaît fréquemment dans la plupart des domaines de la pratique actuarielle.C'est le cas notamment pour le calcul du capital de solvabilité en Suisse ou pour modéliser la perte d'une assurance vie au cours d'une année. Le principal problème des évaluations récursives est que la propagation des erreurs provenant de la représentation des nombres réels par l'ordinateur peut être désastreuse. Mais, le gain de temps qu'elles procurent en réduisant le nombre d'opérations arithmétiques est substantiel par rapport à d'autres méthodes.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons certaines propriétés d'un outil informatique performant afin d'optimiser le temps de calcul tout en garantissant une certaine qualité dans les résultats par rapport à la propagation de ces erreurs au cours de l'évaluation.Dans le second essai, nous dérivons des expressions exactes et des bornes pour les erreurs qui se produisent dans les fonctions de distribution cumulatives d'un ordre donné lorsque celles-ci sont évaluées récursivement à partir d'une approximation de la transformée de De Pril associée. Ces fonctions cumulatives permettent de calculer directement certaines quantités essentielles comme les primes stop-loss.Finalement, dans le troisième essai, nous étudions la stabilité des évaluations récursives de ces fonctions cumulatives par rapport à la propagation des erreurs citées ci-dessus et déterminons la précision nécessaire dans la représentation des nombres réels afin de garantir des résultats satisfaisants. Cette précision dépend en grande partie de la transformée de De Pril associée.

Stability of repeated student evaluations of teaching in the second preclinical year of a medical curriculum

RESUME L'étude de la médecine à la Faculté de l'Université de Lausanne est un cursus de six ans. Depuis la réforme générale du curriculum en octobre 1995, le programme de la deuxième année consacrée à l'étude de l'être humain sain a été transformé. L'enseignement intégré par système ou organe a été introduit en remplaçant l'enseignement par discipline. Parallèlement, un système d'évaluation de l'enseignement par les étudiants a été proposé. Il a été amélioré au fil des années et depuis l'année académique 1998-99, l'évaluation est devenue systémique et régulière. Notre étude présente et compare les résultats des évaluations de l'enseignement et des enseignants de neuf cours intégrés dispensés en deuxième année durant deux années académiques (1998-99 et 1999-2000). Une forte corrélation entre les résultats des deux années consécutives ainsi qu'une importante disparité des estimations à l'intérieure de chacune de deux années ont été observées. Ceci démontre un engagement sérieux des étudiants dans le processus d'évaluation, révèle la pertinence de leur analyse et leur bonne capacité de discernement. L'analyse de nos résultats montre que les évaluations effectuées par les étudiants peuvent constituer une source fiable d'informations et contribuer à l'amélioration du processus d'enseignement.

PET Molecular Imaging of Hypoxia in Ischemic Stroke: An Update.

Hypoxia, a condition of insufficient oxygen availability to support metabolism, occurs when the vascular supply is interrupted, as in stroke. The identification of the hypoxic and viable tissue in stroke as compared with irreversible lesions (necrosis) has relevant implications for the treatment of ischemic stroke. Traditionally, imaging by positron emission tomography (PET), using 15O-based radiotracers, allowed the measurement of perfusion and oxygen extraction in stroke, providing important insights in its pathophysiology. However, these multitracer evaluations are of limited applicability in clinical settings. More recently, specific tracers have been developed, which accumulate with an inverse relationship to oxygen concentration and thus allow visualizing the hypoxic tissue non invasively. These belong to two main groups: nitroimidazoles, and among these the 18F-Fluoroimidazole (18F-FMISO) is the most widely used, and the copper-based tracers, represented mainly by Cu-ATSM. While these tracers have been at first developed and tested in order to image hypoxia in tumors, they have also shown promising results in stroke models and preliminary clinical studies in patients with cardiovascular disorders, allowing the detection of hypoxic tissue and the prediction of the extent of subsequent ischemia and clinical outcome. These tracers have therefore the potential to select an appropriate subgroup of patients who could benefit from a hypoxia-directed treatment and provide prognosis relevant imaging. The molecular imaging of hypoxia made important progress over the last decade and has a potential for integration into the diagnostic and therapeutic workup of patients with ischemic stroke.

Endocrine response and perceived stress test during an experimental challenge task in adult survivors of a childhood cancer.

BACKGROUND: Although long-term implications of cancer in childhood or adolescence with regard to medical conditions are well documented, the impact on mental health and on response to stress, which may be an indicator of psychological vulnerability, is not yet well understood. In this study, psychological and physiological responses to stress were examined.¦PROCEDURE: Fifty-three participants aged 18-39 years (n = 25 survivors of childhood or adolescence cancer, n = 28 controls) underwent an experimental stress test, the Trier Social Stress Test (TSST). Participants were asked to provide repeated evaluations of perceived stress on visual-analogical scales and blood samples were collected before and after the TSST to measure plasma cortisol.¦RESULTS: The psychological perception of stress was not different between the two groups. However, the cancer survivors group showed a higher global plasma cortisol level as well as higher amplitude in the response to the TSST. The global cortisol level in cancer survivors was increased when depression symptoms were present. The subjective perception of stress and the plasma cortisol levels were only marginally correlated in both groups.¦CONCLUSIONS: It is suggested that the exposure to a life-threatening experience in childhood/adolescence increases the endocrine response to stress, and that the presence of depressive symptoms is associated with an elevation of plasma cortisol levels. A better knowledge of these mechanisms is important given that the dysregulations of the stress responses may cause psychological vulnerability. Pediatr Blood Cancer 2012; 59: 138-143. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The PRINTO criteria for clinically inactive disease in juvenile dermatomyositis.

OBJECTIVES: To develop data-driven criteria for clinically inactive disease on and off therapy for juvenile dermatomyositis (JDM). METHODS: The Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation (PRINTO) database contains 275 patients with active JDM evaluated prospectively up to 24 months. Thirty-eight patients off therapy at 24 months were defined as clinically inactive and included in the reference group. These were compared with a random sample of 76 patients who had active disease at study baseline. Individual measures of muscle strength/endurance, muscle enzymes, physician's and parent's global disease activity/damage evaluations, inactive disease criteria derived from the literature and other ad hoc criteria were evaluated for sensitivity, specificity and Cohen's κ agreement. RESULTS: The individual measures that best characterised inactive disease (sensitivity and specificity >0.8 and Cohen's κ >0.8) were manual muscle testing (MMT) ≥78, physician global assessment of muscle activity=0, physician global assessment of overall disease activity (PhyGloVAS) ≤0.2, Childhood Myositis Assessment Scale (CMAS) ≥48, Disease Activity Score ≤3 and Myositis Disease Activity Assessment Visual Analogue Scale ≤0.2. The best combination of variables to classify a patient as being in a state of inactive disease on or off therapy is at least three of four of the following criteria: creatine kinase ≤150, CMAS ≥48, MMT ≥78 and PhyGloVAS ≤0.2. After 24 months, 30/31 patients (96.8%) were inactive off therapy and 69/145 (47.6%) were inactive on therapy. CONCLUSION: PRINTO established data-driven criteria with clearly evidence-based cut-off values to identify JDM patients with clinically inactive disease. These criteria can be used in clinical trials, in research and in clinical practice.

Traitement pharmacologique de la schizophrénie: évaluation comparative de la qualité des recommandations de pratique clinique [Comparative evaluation of clinical practice guidelines for the treatment of schizophrenia]

INTRODUCTION: Many clinical practice guidelines (CPG) have been published in reply to the development of the concept of "evidence-based medicine" (EBM) and as a solution to the difficulty of synthesizing and selecting relevant medical literature. Taking into account the expansion of new CPG, the question of choice arises: which CPG to consider in a given clinical situation? It is of primary importance to evaluate the quality of the CPG, but until recently, there has been no standardized tool of evaluation or comparison of the quality of the CPG. An instrument of evaluation of the quality of the CPG, called "AGREE" for appraisal of guidelines for research and evaluation was validated in 2002. AIM OF THE STUDY: The six principal CPG concerning the treatment of schizophrenia are compared with the help of the "AGREE" instrument: (1) "the Agence nationale pour le développement de l'évaluation médicale (ANDEM) recommendations"; (2) "The American Psychiatric Association (APA) practice guideline for the treatment of patients with schizophrenia"; (3) "The quick reference guide of APA practice guideline for the treatment of patients with schizophrenia"; (4) "The schizophrenia patient outcomes research team (PORT) treatment recommendations"; (5) "The Texas medication algorithm project (T-MAP)" and (6) "The expert consensus guideline for the treatment of schizophrenia". RESULTS: The results of our study were then compared with those of a similar investigation published in 2005, structured on 24 CPG tackling the treatment of schizophrenia. The "AGREE" tool was also used by two investigators in their study. In general, the scores of the two studies differed little and the two global evaluations of the CPG converged; however, each of the six CPG is perfectible. DISCUSSION: The rigour of elaboration of the six CPG was in general average. The consideration of the opinion of potential users was incomplete, and an effort made in the presentation of the recommendations would facilitate their clinical use. Moreover, there was little consideration by the authors regarding the applicability of the recommendations. CONCLUSION: Globally, two CPG are considered as strongly recommended: "the quick reference guide of the APA practice guideline for the treatment of patients with schizophrenia" and "the T-MAP".

Peri-prosthetic stress fractures after reversed shoulder arthroplasty

Introduction: Reversed shoulder prostheses have a semi-congruent design. Furthermore, the center of rotation is inferiorly displaced and a significant tension in the deltoid is often necessary to ensure the joint stability. Consequently, stress transmitted to peri-prosthetic bone may be increased, and could lead to stress fractures. We review a series of patients after reversed shoulder arthroplasty (RSA) and look specifically at the occurrence of postoperative peri-prosthetic stress fractures. Methods: Between 2001 and 2006, 46 consecutive RSA were performed. There were 26 women and 20 men with a mean age of 74 years (53-86). All had preoperative MRI or CT-scan, which did not reveal any fracture. All had a delto-pectoral approach with standard rehabilitation. Review was performed at a mean follow up of 30 months (6-60), and consisted of clinical and radiological (plain X-rays) examinations. Every time a fracture was suspected or in case of recurrent unexpected pain, CT-scan evaluations were performed. The occurrence of peri-prosthetic fractures was looked for. Results: Three patients (7%) sustained a scapular fracture (1 spinal and 2 acromial) without any trauma, between 3 and 6 months after the RSA. Furthermore, one of these patients developed 3 months later a spontaneous clavicular fracture, leading to an overall stress fracture rate of 9%. The four fractures were treated conservatively. Three malunions and one acromial non-union occurred. The range of motion in abduction and flexion decreased significantly after the fracture and stayed limited in all cases. All the three patients reported a recurrence of pain. Conclusion: Peri-prosthetic stress fractures, especially in the acromion and in the spine of the scapula are not unusual after RSA. The etiology is not well known. The increase of stress in peri-prosthetic bone may be due to the semi-congruent design and to an overtension of the deltoid. The management of this complication stays difficult. The conservative treatment leads to mal- or non-union, with persistent pain and limited range of motion.

Clinicopathologic correlates in the oldest-old: Commentary on "No disease in the brain of a 115-year-old woman".

den Dunnen et al. [den Dunnen, W.F.A., Brouwer, W.H., Bijlard, E., Kamphuis, J., van Linschoten, K., Eggens-Meijer, E., Holstege, G., 2008. No disease in the brain of a 115-year-old woman. Neurobiol. Aging] had the opportunity to follow up the cognitive functioning of one of the world's oldest woman during the last 3 years of her life. They performed two neuropsychological evaluations at age 112 and 115 that revealed a striking preservation of immediate recall abilities and orientation. In contrast, working memory, retrieval from semantic memory and mental arithmetic performances declined after age 112. Overall, only a one-point decrease of MMSE score occurred (from 27 to 26) reflecting the remarkable preservation of cognitive abilities. The neuropathological assessment showed few neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) in the hippocampal formation compatible with Braak staging II, absence of amyloid deposits and other types of neurodegenerative lesions as well as preservation of neuron numbers in locus coeruleus. This finding was related to a striking paucity of Alzheimer disease (AD)-related lesions in the hippocampal formation. The present report parallels the early descriptions of rare "supernormal" centenarians supporting the dissociation between brain aging and AD processes. In conjunction with recent stereological analyses in cases aged from 90 to 102 years, it also points to the marked resistance of the hippocampal formation to the degenerative process in this age group and possible dissociation between the occurrence of slight cognitive deficits and development of AD-related pathologic changes in neocortical areas. This work is discussed in the context of current efforts to identify the biological and genetic parameters of human longevity.

How are temporal and social comparisons related to appraisals of self-rated health during very old age?

This study investigated the direction of effects of temporal and downward social comparisons on self-rated health in very old age. Self-rated health can either reinforce or hinder comparison processes. In the framework of the Swiss Interdisciplinary Longitudinal Study on the Oldest Old, individuals aged 80 to 84 at baseline were interviewed and followed longitudinally for 5 years. Multilevel analyses were used to test the relative importance of temporal and social comparisons on self-rated health evaluations synchronically and diachronically (with a time lag of 12 to 18 months) as well as the direction of these relative influences. Results indicate that (a) at the synchronic level, continuity temporal comparisons have more impact than downward social comparisons on self-rated health; (b) both types of comparison had an independent and positive effect on self-rated health at the diachronic level; (c) self-rated health has an independent synchronic effect on both types of comparison and an independent diachronic effect in temporal comparison.

On the maintenance of sex-chromosome polymorphism by sex-antagonistic selection

Complex sex-determination systems are a priori unstable and require specific selective forces for their maintenance. Analytical derivations have suggested that sex-antagonistic selection may play such a role, but this assumed absence of recombination between the sex-determining and sex-antagonistic genes. Using individual-based simulations, and focusing on the sex chromosome and coloration polymorphisms of platy fishes as a case study, we show that the conditions for polymorphism maintenance induce female-biases in primary sex ratios, so that sex-ratio selection makes the system collapse towards male- or female heterogamety as soon as recombinant genotypes appear. However, a polymorphism can still be maintained under scenarios comprising strong sexual selection against dull males, mild natural selection against bright females, and low recombination rates. Though such conditions are plausibly met in natural populations of fishes harbouring such polymorphisms, quantitative empirical evaluations are required to properly test whether sex-antagonistic selection is a causal agent, or if other selective processes are required (such as local mate competition favouring female biased sex ratios).

Variable phenotypic expressivity in a Swiss family with autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa due to mutation T494m in the Prpf3 gene

Purpose:to describe the clinical features in a five generations family segregating autosomal dominant retinitis pigmentosa and to identify the causative gene Patient and Methods:Twenty five individuals of a large five-generation family originating from Western Switzerland were ascertained for phenotypic and genotypic characterization. Ophthalmologic evaluations included color vision testing, Goldman perimetry and digital fundus photography. Some patients had autofluorescence (AF) imaging, ocular coherence tomography (OCT) and ISCEV-standard full-field electroretinography (ERG). Blood samples were collected from 10 affected (4 to 70 years of age) and 15 unaffected members after informed consent. DNA was isolated and exons and intron-exons junctions of known adRP genes were sequenced using a Big Dye sequencing kit 1.1. Results:Age of onset of nightblindness and severity of progression of the disease was variable between members of the family. Some patients had early onset of nightblindess aged 3, others at mid-twenties. Most patients had visual acuity above 0.6 for the first 4 decades. Two older patients still had good vision (0.4) in their seventies. Myopia (range: -2 to -5) was noticed in most affected subjects. Fundus findings showed areas of atrophy along the arcades. The AF imaging showed a large high density ring bilaterally. A T494M change was found in exon 11 of PRPF3 gene. The change segregates with the disease in the family. Conclusion: A mutation in the PRPF3 gene is rare compared with other genes causing ADRP. Although a T494M change has been reported, our family is the first one with a variable expressivity. Mutations in PRPF3 gene can cause a variable phenotype of ADRP unlike the previously described Danish and English families. Our report gives a better understanding as to the phenotype/genotype description of ADRP due to PRPF3 mutation.

Using a NPWE model observer to assess suitable image quality for a digital mammography quality assurance programme.

A method of objectively determining imaging performance for a mammography quality assurance programme for digital systems was developed. The method is based on the assessment of the visibility of a spherical microcalcification of 0.2 mm using a quasi-ideal observer model. It requires the assessment of the spatial resolution (modulation transfer function) and the noise power spectra of the systems. The contrast is measured using a 0.2-mm thick Al sheet and Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) blocks. The minimal image quality was defined as that giving a target contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) of 5.4. Several evaluations of this objective method for evaluating image quality in mammography quality assurance programmes have been considered on computed radiography (CR) and digital radiography (DR) mammography systems. The measurement gives a threshold CNR necessary to reach the minimum standard image quality required with regards to the visibility of a 0.2-mm microcalcification. This method may replace the CDMAM image evaluation and simplify the threshold contrast visibility test used in mammography quality.