Social Cognition is not Reducible to Theory of Mind. When Children use Deontic Rules to Predict Others' Behaviors

The objective of this paper is to discuss whether children have a capacity for deonticreasoning that is irreducible to mentalizing. The results of two experiments point tothe existence of such non-mentalistic understanding and prediction of the behaviourof others. In Study 1, young children (3- and 4-year-olds) were told different versionsof classic false-belief tasks, some of which were modified by the introduction of a ruleor a regularity. When the task (a standard change of location task) included a rule, theperformance of 3-year-olds, who fail traditional false-belief tasks, significantly improved.In Study 2, 3-year-olds proved to be able to infer a rule from a social situation and touse it in order to predict the behaviour of a character involved in a modified versionof the false-belief task. These studies suggest that rules play a central role in the socialcognition of young children and that deontic reasoning might not necessarily involvemind reading.

Ispol'zovanie metodov teorii vosstanovleniia v modeliakh optimal'nogo dobyvaniia pishchi [Restoration theory in models of optimal feeding behavior]

The method of stochastic dynamic programming is widely used in ecology of behavior, but has some imperfections because of use of temporal limits. The authors presented an alternative approach based on the methods of the theory of restoration. Suggested method uses cumulative energy reserves per time unit as a criterium, that leads to stationary cycles in the area of states. This approach allows to study the optimal feeding by analytic methods.

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theory

On the efficiency of recursive evaluations with applications to risk theoryCette thèse est composée de trois essais qui portent sur l'efficacité des évaluations récursives de la distribution du montant total des sinistres d'un portefeuille de polices d'assurance au cours d'un période donnée. Le calcul de sa fonction de probabilité ou de quantités liées à cette distribution apparaît fréquemment dans la plupart des domaines de la pratique actuarielle.C'est le cas notamment pour le calcul du capital de solvabilité en Suisse ou pour modéliser la perte d'une assurance vie au cours d'une année. Le principal problème des évaluations récursives est que la propagation des erreurs provenant de la représentation des nombres réels par l'ordinateur peut être désastreuse. Mais, le gain de temps qu'elles procurent en réduisant le nombre d'opérations arithmétiques est substantiel par rapport à d'autres méthodes.Dans le premier essai, nous utilisons certaines propriétés d'un outil informatique performant afin d'optimiser le temps de calcul tout en garantissant une certaine qualité dans les résultats par rapport à la propagation de ces erreurs au cours de l'évaluation.Dans le second essai, nous dérivons des expressions exactes et des bornes pour les erreurs qui se produisent dans les fonctions de distribution cumulatives d'un ordre donné lorsque celles-ci sont évaluées récursivement à partir d'une approximation de la transformée de De Pril associée. Ces fonctions cumulatives permettent de calculer directement certaines quantités essentielles comme les primes stop-loss.Finalement, dans le troisième essai, nous étudions la stabilité des évaluations récursives de ces fonctions cumulatives par rapport à la propagation des erreurs citées ci-dessus et déterminons la précision nécessaire dans la représentation des nombres réels afin de garantir des résultats satisfaisants. Cette précision dépend en grande partie de la transformée de De Pril associée.

Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A test of Jessor's problem behavior theory in a Eurasian and a Western European developmental context.

PURPOSE: The current study tested the applicability of Jessor's problem behavior theory (PBT) in national probability samples from Georgia and Switzerland. Comparisons focused on (1) the applicability of the problem behavior syndrome (PBS) in both developmental contexts, and (2) on the applicability of employing a set of theory-driven risk and protective factors in the prediction of problem behaviors. METHODS: School-based questionnaire data were collected from n = 18,239 adolescents in Georgia (n = 9499) and Switzerland (n = 8740) following the same protocol. Participants rated five measures of problem behaviors (alcohol and drug use, problems because of alcohol and drug use, and deviance), three risk factors (future uncertainty, depression, and stress), and three protective factors (family, peer, and school attachment). Final study samples included n = 9043 Georgian youth (mean age = 15.57; 58.8% females) and n = 8348 Swiss youth (mean age = 17.95; 48.5% females). Data analyses were completed using structural equation modeling, path analyses, and post hoc z-tests for comparisons of regression coefficients. RESULTS: Findings indicated that the PBS replicated in both samples, and that theory-driven risk and protective factors accounted for 13% and 10% in Georgian and Swiss samples, respectively in the PBS, net the effects by demographic variables. Follow-up z-tests provided evidence of some differences in the magnitude, but not direction, in five of six individual paths by country. CONCLUSION: PBT and the PBS find empirical support in these Eurasian and Western European samples; thus, Jessor's theory holds value and promise in understanding the etiology of adolescent problem behaviors outside of the United States.

Processes models, environmental analyses, and cognitive architectures: Quo vadis quantum probability theory? (Commentary on Pothos and Busemeyer)

A lot of research in cognition and decision making suffers from a lack of formalism. The quantum probability program could help to improve this situation, but we wonder whether it would provide even more added value if its presumed focus on outcome models were complemented by process models that are, ideally, informed by ecological analyses and integrated into cognitive architectures.

Scattering of repetitive DNA sequences in the albumin and vitellogenin gene loci of Xenopus laevis.

We have analyzed middle repetitive DNA in the albumin and vitellogenin gene families of Xenopus laevis. Mapping specific repetitive DNA sequences derived from introns of the A1 vitellogenin gene reveals that these sequences are scattered within and around the four vitellogenin genes (A1, A2, B1 and B2) and the two albumin genes (74 kd and 68 kd). Three repetitive DNA elements present in the A1 vitellogenin transcriptional unit are also located in introns of the 74 kd albumin gene. This apparently random distribution of middle repetitive DNA in the two gene families suggests that the analyzed sequences are not involved in gene regulation, but rather that they might represent unstable genetic elements. This hypothesis is further supported by the finding that size polymorphism in the A1 vitellogenin gene and in the 74 kd albumin gene is correlated with the presence or absence of repetitive DNA.

On the Schoenberg transformations in data analysis: theory and illustrations

The class of Schoenberg transformations, embedding Euclidean distances into higher dimensional Euclidean spaces, is presented, and derived from theorems on positive definite and conditionally negative definite matrices. Original results on the arc lengths, angles and curvature of the transformations are proposed, and visualized on artificial data sets by classical multidimensional scaling. A distance-based discriminant algorithm and a robust multidimensional centroid estimate illustrate the theory, closely connected to the Gaussian kernels of Machine Learning.

Genetic basis and variable phenotypic expression of Kallmann syndrome: towards a unifying theory.

Idiopathic hypogonadotropic hypogonadism (IHH) is defined by absent or incomplete puberty and characterised biochemically by low levels of sex steroids, with low or inappropriately normal gonadotropin hormones. IHH is frequently accompanied by non-reproductive abnormalities, most commonly anosmia, which is present in 50-60% of cases and defines Kallmann syndrome. The understanding of IHH has undergone rapid evolution, both in respect of genetics and breadth of phenotype. Once considered in monogenic Mendelian terms, it is now more coherently understood as a complex genetic condition. Oligogenic and complex genetic-environmental interactions have now been identified, with physiological and environmental factors interacting in genetically susceptible individuals to alter the clinical course and phenotype. These potentially link IHH to ancient evolutionary pressures on the ancestral human genome.

Estimation of the correlation structure of crustal velocity heterogeneity from seismic reflection data

Numerous sources of evidence point to the fact that heterogeneity within the Earth's deep crystalline crust is complex and hence may be best described through stochastic rather than deterministic approaches. As seismic reflection imaging arguably offers the best means of sampling deep crustal rocks in situ, much interest has been expressed in using such data to characterize the stochastic nature of crustal heterogeneity. Previous work on this problem has shown that the spatial statistics of seismic reflection data are indeed related to those of the underlying heterogeneous seismic velocity distribution. As of yet, however, the nature of this relationship has remained elusive due to the fact that most of the work was either strictly empirical or based on incorrect methodological approaches. Here, we introduce a conceptual model, based on the assumption of weak scattering, that allows us to quantitatively link the second-order statistics of a 2-D seismic velocity distribution with those of the corresponding processed and depth-migrated seismic reflection image. We then perform a sensitivity study in order to investigate what information regarding the stochastic model parameters describing crustal velocity heterogeneity might potentially be recovered from the statistics of a seismic reflection image using this model. Finally, we present a Monte Carlo inversion strategy to estimate these parameters and we show examples of its application at two different source frequencies and using two different sets of prior information. Our results indicate that the inverse problem is inherently non-unique and that many different combinations of the vertical and lateral correlation lengths describing the velocity heterogeneity can yield seismic images with the same 2-D autocorrelation structure. The ratio of all of these possible combinations of vertical and lateral correlation lengths, however, remains roughly constant which indicates that, without additional prior information, the aspect ratio is the only parameter describing the stochastic seismic velocity structure that can be reliably recovered.

Conditional manipulation of sex ratios by ant workers: A test of kin selection theory

Variable queen mating frequencies provide a unique opportunity to study the resolution of worker-queen conflict over sex ratio in social Hymenoptera, because the conflict is maximal in colonies headed by a singly mated queen and is weak or nonexistent in colonies headed by a multiply mated queen. In the wood ant Formica exsecta, workers in colonies with a singly mated queen, but not those in colonies with a multiply mated queen, altered the sex ratio of queen-laid eggs by eliminating males to preferentially raise queens. By this conditional response to queen mating frequency, workers enhance their inclusive fitness.