43 resultados para indirect and composite estimators
Resumo:
We propose a new terrane subdivision of Nicaragua and Northern Costa Rica, based on Upper Triassic to Upper Cretaceous radiolarian biochronology of ribbon radiolarites, the newly studied Siuna Serpentinite Mélange, and published 40Ar/39Ar dating and geochemistry of mafic and ultramafic igneous rock units of the area. The new Mesquito Composite Oceanic Terrane (MCOT) comprises the southern half of the Chortis Block, that was assumed to be a continental fragment of N-America. The MCOT is defined by 4 corner localities characterized by ultramafic and mafic oceanic rocks and radiolarites of Late Triassic, Jurassic and Early Cretaceous age: 1. The Siuna Serpentinite Mélange (NE-Nicaragua), 2. The El Castillo Mélange (Nicaragua/Costa Rica border), 3.The Santa Elena Ultramafics (N-Costa Rica) and, 4. DSDP Legs 67/84. 1. The Siuna Serpentinite Mélange contains, high pressure metamorphic mafics and Middle Jurassic (Bajocian-Bathonian) radiolarites in original, sedimentary contact with arc-metandesites. The Siuna Mélange also contains Upper Jurassic black detrital chert formed in a marginal (fore-arc?) basin shortly before subduction. A phengite 40Ar/39Ar -cooling age dates the exhumation of the high pressure rocks as 139 Ma (earliest Cretaceous). 2. The El Castillo Mélange comprises a radiolarite block tectonically embedded in serpentinite that yielded a diverse Rhaetian (latest Triassic) radiolarian assemblage, the oldest fossils recovered so far from S-Central America. 3. The Santa Elena Ultramafics of N-Costa Rica together with the serpentinite outcrops near El Castillo (2) in Southern Nicaragua, are the southernmost outcrops of the MCOT. The Santa Elena Unit (3) itself is still undated, but it is thrust onto the middle Cretaceous Santa Rosa Accretionary Complex (SRAC), that contains Lower to Upper Jurassic, highly deformed radiolarite blocks, probably reworked from the MCOT, which was the upper plate with respect to the SRAC. 4. Serpentinites, metagabbros and basalts have long been known from DSDP Leg 67/84 (3), drilled off Guatemala in the Nicaragua-Guatemala forearc basement. They have been restudied and reveal 40Ar/39Ar dated Upper Triassic to middle Cretaceous enriched Ocean Island Basalts and Jurassic to Lower Cretaceous depleted Island arc rocks of probable Pacific origin. The area between localities 1-4 is largely covered by Tertiary to Recent arcs, but we suspect that its basement is made of oceanic/accreted terranes. Earthquake seismic studies indicate an ill-defined, shallow Moho in this area. The MCOT covers most of Nicaragua and could extend to Guatemala to the W and form the Lower (southern) Nicaragua Rise to the NE. Some basement complexes of Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico may also belong to the MCOT. The Nicoya Complex s. str. has been regarded as an example of Caribbean crust and the Caribbean Large Igneous Province (CLIP). However, 40Ar/39Ar - dates on basalts and intrusives indicate ages as old as Early Cretaceous. Highly deformed Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous radiolarites occur as blocks within younger intrusives and basalts. Our interpretation is that radiolarites became first accreted to the MCOT, then became reworked into the Nicoya Plateau in Late Cretaceous times. This implies that the Nicoya Plateau formed along the Pacific edge of the MCOT, independent form the CLIP and most probably unrelated with he Galapagos hotspot. No Jurassic radiolarite, no older sediment age than Coniacian-Santonian, and no older 40Ar/39Ar age than 95 Ma is known from S-Central America between SE of Nicoya and Colombia. For us this area represents the trailing edge of the CLIP s. str.
Resumo:
In contradiction to sexual selection theory, several studies showed that although the expression of melanin-based ornaments is usually under strong genetic control and weakly sensitive to the environment and body condition, they can signal individual quality. Covariation between a melanin-based ornament and phenotypic quality may result from pleiotropic effects of genes involved in the production of melanin pigments. Two categories of genes responsible for variation in melanin production may be relevant, namely those that trigger melanin production (yes or no response) and those that determine the amount of pigments produced. To investigate which of these two hypotheses is the most likely, I reanalysed data collected from barn owls ( Tyto alba). The underparts of this bird vary from immaculate to heavily marked with black spots of varying size. Published cross-fostering experiments have shown that the proportion of the plumage surface covered with black spots, a eumelanin composite trait so-called "plumage spottiness", in females positively covaries with offspring humoral immunocompetence, and negatively with offspring parasite resistance (i.show $132#e. the ability to reduce fecundity of ectoparasites) and fluctuating asymmetry of wing feathers. However, it is unclear which component of plumage spottiness causes these relationships, namely genes responsible for variation in number of spots or in spot diameter. Number of spots reflects variation in the expression of genes triggering the switch from no eumelanin production to production, whereas spot diameter reflects variation in the expression of genes determining the amount of eumelanin produced per spot. In the present study, multiple regression analyses, performed on the same data sets, showed that humoral immunocompetence, parasite resistance and wing fluctuating asymmetry of cross-fostered offspring covary with spot diameter measured in their genetic mother, but not with number of spots. This suggests that genes responsible for variation in the quantity of eumelanin produced per spot are responsible for covariation between a melanin ornament and individual attributes. In contrast, genes responsible for variation in number of black spots may not play a significant role. Covariation between a eumelanin female trait and offspring quality may therefore be due to an indirect effect of melanin production.
Resumo:
We present a combined shape and mechanical anisotropy evolution model for a two-phase inclusion-bearing rock subject to large deformation. A single elliptical inclusion embedded in a homogeneous but anisotropic matrix is used to represent a simplified shape evolution enforced on all inclusions. The mechanical anisotropy develops due to the alignment of elongated inclusions. The effective anisotropy is quantified using the differential effective medium (DEM) approach. The model can be run for any deformation path and an arbitrary viscosity ratio between the inclusion and host phase. We focus on the case of simple shear and weak inclusions. The shape evolution of the representative inclusion is largely insensitive to the anisotropy development and to parameter variations in the studied range. An initial hardening stage is observed up to a shear strain of gamma = 1 irrespective of the inclusion fraction. The hardening is followed by a softening stage related to the developing anisotropy and its progressive rotation toward the shear direction. The traction needed to maintain a constant shear rate exhibits a fivefold drop at gamma = 5 in the limiting case of an inviscid inclusion. Numerical simulations show that our analytical model provides a good approximation to the actual evolution of a two-phase inclusion-host composite. However, the inclusions develop complex sigmoidal shapes resulting in the formation of an S-C fabric. We attribute the observed drop in the effective normal viscosity to this structural development. We study the localization potential in a rock column bearing varying fraction of inclusions. In the inviscid inclusion case, a strain jump from gamma = 3 to gamma = 100 is observed for a change of the inclusion fraction from 20% to 33%.
Resumo:
The Huqf Supergroup in Oman contains an exceptionally well-preserved and complete sedimentary record of the Middle to Late Neoproterozoic Era. Outcrops of the Huqf Supergroup in northern and central Oman are now well documented, but their correlation with a key succession in the Mirbat area of southern Oman, containing a sedimentary record of two Neoproterozoic glaciations, is poorly understood. Integration of lithostratigraphic, chemostratigraphic and new U-Pb detrital zircon data suggests that the Mirbat Group is best placed within the Cryogenian (c. 850-635 Ma) part of the Huqf Supergroup. The c. I km thick marine deposits of the Arkahawl and Marsham Formations of the Mirbat Group are thought to represent a stratigraphic interval between older Cryogenian and younger Cryogenian glaciations that is not preserved elsewhere in Oman. The bulk of detrital zircons in the Huqf Supergroup originate from Neoproterozoic parent rocks. However, older Mesoproterozoic, Palaeoproterozoic and even Archaean zircons can be recognized in the detrital population from the upper Mahara Group (Fiq Formation) and Nafun Group, suggesting the tapping of exotic sources, probably from the Arabian-Nubian Shield.
Resumo:
We consider the problem of estimating the mean hospital cost of stays of a class of patients (e.g., a diagnosis-related group) as a function of patient characteristics. The statistical analysis is complicated by the asymmetry of the cost distribution, the possibility of censoring on the cost variable, and the occurrence of outliers. These problems have often been treated separately in the literature, and a method offering a joint solution to all of them is still missing. Indirect procedures have been proposed, combining an estimate of the duration distribution with an estimate of the conditional cost for a given duration. We propose a parametric version of this approach, allowing for asymmetry and censoring in the cost distribution and providing a mean cost estimator that is robust in the presence of extreme values. In addition, the new method takes covariate information into account.
Resumo:
Background, aim, and scope A coupled Life Cycle Costing and life cycle assessment has been performed for car-bodies of the Korean Tilting Train eXpress (TTX) project using European and Korean databases, with the objective of assessing environmental and cost performance to aid materials and process selection. More specifically, the potential of polymer composite car-body structures for the Korean Tilting Train eXpress (TTX) has been investigated. Materials and methods This assessment includes the cost of both carriage manufacturing and use phases, coupled with the life cycle environmental impacts of all stages from raw material production, through carriage manufacture and use, to end-of-life scenarios. Metallic carriages were compared with two composite options: hybrid steel-composite and full-composite carriages. The total planned production for this regional Korean train was 440 cars, with an annual production volume of 80 cars. Results and discussion The coupled analyses were used to generate plots of cost versus energy consumption and environmental impacts. The results show that the raw material and manufacturing phase costs are approximately half of the total life cycle costs, whilst their environmental impact is relatively insignificant (3-8%). The use phase of the car-body has the largest environmental impact for all scenarios, with near negligible contributions from the other phases. Since steel rail carriages weigh more (27-51%), the use phase cost is correspondingly higher, resulting in both the greatest environmental impact and the highest life cycle cost. Compared to the steel scenario, the hybrid composite variant has a lower life cycle cost (16%) and a lower environmental impact (26%). Though the full composite rail carriage may have the highest manufacturing cost, it results in the lowest total life cycle costs and lowest environmental impacts. Conclusions and recommendations This coupled cost and life cycle assessment showed that the full composite variant was the optimum solution. This case study showed that coupling of technical cost models with life cycle assessment offers an efficient route to accurately evaluate economic and environmental performance in a consistent way.
Resumo:
Many colour ornaments are composite traits consisting of at least four components, which themselves may be more complex, determined by independent evolutionary pathways, and potentially being under different environmental control. To date, little evidence exists that several different components of colour elaboration are condition dependent and no direct evidence exists that different ornamental components are affected by different sources of variation. For example, in carotenoid-based plumage colouration, one of the best-known condition-dependent ornaments, colour elaboration stems from both condition-dependent pigment concentration and structural components. Some environmental flexibility of these components has been suggested, but specifically which and how they are affected remains unknown. Here, we tested whether multiple colour components may be condition dependent, by using a comprehensive 3 × 2 experimental design, in which we carotenoid supplemented and immune challenged great tit nestlings (Parus major) and quantified effects on different components of colouration. Plumage colouration was affected by an interaction between carotenoid availability and immune challenge. Path analyses showed that carotenoid supplementation increased plumage saturation via feather carotenoid concentration and via mechanisms unrelated to carotenoid deposition, while immune challenge affected feather length, but not carotenoid concentration. Thus, independent condition-dependent pathways, affected by different sources of variation, determine colour elaboration. This provides opportunities for the evolution of multiple signals within components of ornamental traits. This finding indicates that the selective forces shaping the evolution of different components of a composite trait and the trait's signal content may be more complex than believed so far, and that holistic approaches are required for drawing comprehensive evolutionary conclusions.
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: Client change talk has been proposed as a mechanism of change in motivational interviewing (MI) by mediating the link between therapist MI-consistent behaviors (MICO) and client behavioral outcomes. We tested under what circumstances this mechanism was supported in the context of a clinical trial of brief MI for heavy drinking among nontreatment seeking young men. METHOD: We conducted psycholinguistic coding of 174 sessions using the MI Skill Code 2.1 and derived the frequency of MICO and the strength of change talk (CTS) averaged over the session. CTS was examined as a mediator of the relationship between MICO and a drinking composite score measured at 3-month follow-up, controlling for the composite measure at baseline. Finally, we tested therapist gender and MI experience as well as client readiness to change and alcohol problem severity as moderators of this mediation model. RESULTS: CTS significantly predicted outcome (higher strength related to less drinking), but MICO did not predict CTS. However, CTS mediated the relationship between MICO and drinking outcomes when therapists had more experience in MI and when clients had more severe alcohol problems (i.e., significant conditional indirect effects). CONCLUSIONS: The mechanism hypothesized by MI theory was operative in our brief MI with heavy drinking young men, but only under particular conditions. Our results suggest that attention should be paid to therapist selection, training, and/or supervision until they reach a certain level of competence, and that MI might not be appropriate for nontreatment seeking clients drinking at a lower level of risk. (PsycINFO Database Record