Forecasting with missing data: Application to a real case

This paper presents a comparative analysis of linear and mixed modelsfor short term forecasting of a real data series with a high percentage of missing data. Data are the series of significant wave heights registered at regular periods of three hours by a buoy placed in the Bay of Biscay.The series is interpolated with a linear predictor which minimizes theforecast mean square error. The linear models are seasonal ARIMA models and themixed models have a linear component and a non linear seasonal component.The non linear component is estimated by a non parametric regression of dataversus time. Short term forecasts, no more than two days ahead, are of interestbecause they can be used by the port authorities to notice the fleet.Several models are fitted and compared by their forecasting behavior.

Strong solutions for stochastic porous media equations with jumps

We prove global well-posedness in the strong sense for stochastic generalized porous media equations driven by locally square integrable martingales with stationary independent increments.

Desenvolupament d'una aplicació Android per a Moodle

L'evolució que la tecnologia de les comunicacions sense fils ha experimentat en els darrers anys permet que avui en dia els dispositius mòbils proporcionin una resposta més que acceptable. Ja s'han superat molts dels problemes de mobilitat, d'infraestructura i d'ample de banda que fins ara dificultaven l'ús d'aquests dispositius. Aquest fet ha fomentat l'expansió de diferents sistemes dels que es pot destacar Android, iPhone OS i Windows Mobile/Windows Phone 7. Els dos primers són els que actualment es disputen el lideratge del mercat dels dispositius i aplicacions mòbils i és Android el que ha experimentat el major creixement els darrers anys. Paral·lelament, la constant introducció de programari d'e-learning destinat a activitats de formació no presencial basades en Internet ha permès arribar a milions d'usuaris en diferents àmbits, com ara universitats, empreses i institucions d'arreu del món. D'aquest conjunt de programari destaca Moodle, suite de codi obert que permet crear llocs web de formació en línia de forma senzilla i eficaç.Aquest Projecte de Final de Carrera, emmarcat en l'àrea de Xarxes de Computadors, conjugaaquests tres conceptes mitjançant el desenvolupament d'una aplicació per a dispositius mòbils Android que connecta a un servidor Moodle. La comunicació entre ells utilitza intensivament les xarxes sense fils i fa crides als serveis que aquest ofereix gràcies als Web Services, mètode de comunicacions composat d'un conjunt de protocols i de programari que permet la comunicació entre dos dispositius a través de la xarxa.

Hospitals i promoció d'exercici saludable mitjançant xarxes socials

L'objectiu d'aquest article és detectar el nivell d'ús de les xarxes socials que fan els hospitals d'Estats Units per a promocionar l'activitat física saludable i quin tipus d'informació és la dominant en el conjunt de les xarxes socials. Per a tal finalitat es procedí a realitzar un estudi quantitatiu on es revisaren la totalitat de comunicacions enviades i acumulades a les xarxes Facebook, Twitter i YouTube en un termini de tres anys per part d'un grup de 14 Hospitals dels Estats Units.

Bond strength of orthodontic brackets using different light and self-curing cements

The purpose of the study was to evaluate the shear bond strength of stainless steel orthodontic brackets directly bonded to extracted human premolar teeth. Fifty teeth were randomly divided into ¿ve groups: (1) System One (chemically cured composite resin), (2) Light Bond (light-cured composite resin), (3) Vivaglass Cem (self-curing glass ionomer cement), (4) Fuji Ortho LC (light-cured glass ionomer cement) used after 37% orthophosphoric acid¿etching of enamel (5) Fuji Ortho LC without orthophosphoric acid¿etching. The brackets were placed on the buccal and lingual surfaces of each tooth, and the specimens were stored in distilled water (24 hours) at 378C and thermocycled. Teeth were mounted on acrylic block frames, and brackets were debonded using an Instron machine. Shear bond strength values at fracture (Nw)were recorded. ANOVA and Student-Newman-Keuls multiple comparison tests were performed (P , .05). Bonding failure site was recorded by stereomicroscope and analyzed by Chi-square test, selected specimens of each group were observed by scanning electron microscope. System One attained the highest bond strength. Light Bond and Fuji Ortho LC, when using an acid-etching technique, obtained bond strengths that were within the range of estimated bond strength values for successful clinical bonding. Fuji Ortho LC and Vivaglass Cem left an almost clean enamel surface after debracketing.

'Heures' a bio-economic model for Mediterranean fisheries, towards the evaluation of management strategies

The bio-economic model "Heures" is a first attempt to develop a simulation procedure to understand the Northwestern Mediterranean fisheries, to evaluate management strategies and to analyze the feasibility of implementing an adaptative management. The model is built on the interaction among three boxes simulating the dynamics of each of the basic actors of a fishery: the stock, the market and the fishermen. A fourth actor, the manager, imposes or modifies the rules, or, in terms of the model, modifies some particular parameters. Thus, the model allows us to simulate and evaluate the mid-term biologic and economic effects of particular management measures. The bio-economic nature of the model is given by the interaction among the three boxes, by the market simulation and, particularly, by the fishermen behaviour. This last element confers to the model its Mediterranean"selfregulated" character. The fishermen allocate their investments to maximize fishing mortality but, having a legal effort limit, they invest in maintenance and technology in order to increase the catchability, which, as a consequence. will be function of the invested capital.

Regional income inequality in Italy in the long run (1871–2001). Patterns and determinants

The chapter presents up-to-date estimates of Italy’s regional GDP, with the present borders, in ten-year benchmarks from 1871 to 2001, and proposes a new interpretative hypothesis based on long-lasting socio-institutional differences. The inverted U-shape of income inequality is confirmed: rising divergence until the midtwentieth century, then convergence. However, the latter was limited to the centrenorth: Italy was divided into three parts by the time regional inequality peaked, in 1951, and appears to have been split into two halves by 2001. As a consequence of the falling back of the south, from 1871 to 2001 we record σ-divergence across Italy’s regions, i.e. an increase in dispersion, and sluggish β-convergence. Geographical factors and the market size played a minor role: against them are both the evidence that most of the differences in GDP are due to employment rather than to productivity and the observed GDP patterns of many regions. The gradual converging of regional GDPs towards two equilibria instead follows social and institutional differences − in the political and economic institutions and in the levels of human and social capital – which originated in pre-unification states and did not die (but in part even increased) in postunification Italy.

Classical line shapes based on analytical solutions of bimolecular trajectories in collision induced emission. II. Reactive collisions

The classical theory of collision induced emission (CIE) from pairs of dissimilar rare gas atoms was developed in Paper I [D. Reguera and G. Birnbaum, J. Chem. Phys. 125, 184304 (2006)] from a knowledge of the straight line collision trajectory and the assumption that the magnitude of the dipole could be represented by an exponential function of the inter-nuclear distance. This theory is extended here to deal with other functional forms of the induced dipole as revealed by ab initio calculations. Accurate analytical expression for the CIE can be obtained by least square fitting of the ab initio values of the dipole as a function of inter-atomic separation using a sum of exponentials and then proceeding as in Paper I. However, we also show how the multi-exponential fit can be replaced by a simpler fit using only two analytic functions. Our analysis is applied to the polar molecules HF and HBr. Unlike the rare gas atoms considered previously, these atomic pairs form stable bound diatomic molecules. We show that, interestingly, the spectra of these reactive molecules are characterized by the presence of multiple peaks. We also discuss the CIE arising from half collisions in excited electronic states, which in principle could be probed in photo-dissociation experiments.

Simulating the Impact of Sectorial Productivity Gains on Two Regional Economies: Key Sectors from a Supply Side Perspective

In this paper we simulate and analyse the economic impact that sectorial productivity gains have on two regional Spanish economies (Catalonia and Extremadura). In particular we study the quantitative effect that each sector’s productivity gain has on household welfare (real disposable income and equivalent variation), on the consumption price indices and factor relative prices, on real production (GDP) and on the government’s net income (net taxation revenues of social transfers to households). The analytical approach consists of a computable general equilibrium model, in which we assume perfect competition and cleared markets, including factor markets. All the parameters and exogenous variables of the model are calibrated by means of two social accounting matrices, one for each region under study. The results allow us to identify those sectors with the greatest impact on consumer welfare as the key sectors in the regional economies. Keywords: Productivity gains, key sectors, computable general equilibrium

Revealing the dark side of traditional democracies in plurinational societies. The case of Catalonia and the Spanish “Estado de las Autonomías”

In this article, I firstly offer a synthesis of a brief set of analytical elements of the theory of democracy and federalism established in the recent debate which identify a number of flaws in the normative and institutional bases of plurinational democracies. It is necessary to overcome these flaws in order to achieve a true political and constitutional recognition and accommodation of the national pluralism of this kind of liberal democracies (section 1). Secondly, we will focus on the Spanish case of the “Estado de las Autonomías” taking into account the recent reform of the Catalan constitutional law (Estatut d’autonomia 2006) (section 2). A final section makes a number of concluding remarks relating the previously highlighted elements of the theory of democracy and federalism with the analysis of the Catalan case (section 3).

Los títulos de crédito como marco de la obra fílmica. Análisis en Un americano en París, West Side Story y El desprecio

Este trabajo de investigación plantea un paralelismo entre los marcos en pintura y lostítulos de crédito en cine. Se analizan los créditos de tres películas (Un americano en París, West Side Story y El desprecio) según sus características de indicación, frontera, límite, umbral al imaginario y marco de actividad. Las películas a las que acompañan pertenecen, a su vez, a diferentes medios de producción y jerarquía, aspectos tecnológicos, áreas estéticas y estructuras de emisión y recepción. Los tres marcos son, a su vez, marcos-objeto, marcos-límite, marcos-ventana y marcos-espejo. Se leen de manera centrípeta, entre dos mundos y desde fuera del marco. Para ello se parte de una metodología transdisciplinar basada en la hermenéutica, el análisis crítico de los textos audiovisuales, los estudios sobrela imagen y el marco como objeto social.

Comparació de les dues traduccions al català de This Side of Paradise

En aquest treball es fa una anàlisi de This Side of Paradise, de Scott Fitzgerald, enfocada a avaluar les traduccions catalanes. A continuació, es comparen les dues traduccions existents: una de Francesc Parcerisas (Aquest costat del paradís, 1984) i l’altra de Josep Maria Fulquet (En aquest costat del paradís, 2003).

Credit lines: The other side of corporate liquidity

In this paper we offer the first large sample evidence on the availability and usage ofcredit lines in U.S. public corporations and use it to re-examine the existing findings oncorporate liquidity. We show that the availability of credit lines is widespread and thataverage undrawn credit is of the same order of magnitude as cash holdings. We test thetrade-off theory of liquidity according to which firms target an optimum level of liquidity,computed as the sum of cash and undrawn credit lines. We provide support for the existenceof a liquidity target, but also show that the reasons why firms hold cash and credit linesare very different. While the precautionary motive explains well cash holdings, the optimumlevel of credit lines appears to be driven by the restrictions imposed by the credit line itself,in terms of stated purpose and covenants. In support to these findings, credit line drawdownsare associated with capital expenditures, acquisitions, and working capital.

Supply side interventions and redistribution

In this paper we study the welfare impact of alternative tax schemes on laborand capital. We evaluate the e_ect of lowering capital income taxes on thedistribution of wealth in a model with heterogeneous agents, restricting ourattention to policies with constant tax rates.We calibrate and simulate the economy; we find that lowering capital taxeshas two effects: i) it increases effciency in terms of aggregate production, andii) it redistributes wealth in favor of those agents with a low wage/wealth ratio.We find that the redistributive effect dominates, and that agents with a lowwage wealth ratio would experience a large loss in utility if capital income taxeswere eliminated.

GalaxyDefenders: desenvolupament d'un side-scrolling shooter per iOS

Aquest projecte neix del interés personal de l’autor per a la indústria dels videojocs. El principal objectiu de l’aplicació és esdevenir un joc complet mitjançant l’ús de tècniques clàssicament empleades en el desenvolupament de jocs en dues dimensions de manera que la experiència i tècniques adquirides sigui el més reutilitzable possible.