Efficient knowledge retrieval to calibrate input variables in forest fire prediction

Forest fires are a serious threat to humans and nature from an ecological, social and economic point of view. Predicting their behaviour by simulation still delivers unreliable results and remains a challenging task. Latest approaches try to calibrate input variables, often tainted with imprecision, using optimisation techniques like Genetic Algorithms. To converge faster towards fitter solutions, the GA is guided with knowledge obtained from historical or synthetical fires. We developed a robust and efficient knowledge storage and retrieval method. Nearest neighbour search is applied to find the fire configuration from knowledge base most similar to the current configuration. Therefore, a distance measure was elaborated and implemented in several ways. Experiments show the performance of the different implementations regarding occupied storage and retrieval time with overly satisfactory results.

Sostenibilitat de la fusta al PNAP: certificació FSC a la forest 141

Estudiant el sistema de certificacions, concretament el PEFC (Programme for the Endorsement of Forest Certification) i el FSC (Forest Stewardship Council), s’ha analitzat la forest CUP 141 (catalogada d'utilitat pública) Sarredo-Manyero per a identificar-ne les mancances documentals en el Projecte d’Ordenació del PNAP (Parc Natural de l’Alt Pirineu). Dels resultats se’n desprèn un major grau de sostenibilitat del sistema FSC enfront del PEFC, fet que ha estat decisiu en l’elecció del primer com a certificació a estudiar al parc. Per altra banda, s’han constatat les discrepàncies existents quant a política forestal entre propietaris de les forests i l’administració del parc. Aquest fet té una incidència negativa si es vol revitalitzar el sector de la fusta a la zona. Finalment, i un cop avaluada la documentació de la CUP 141 amb els estàndards del sistema FSC, s’ha detectat que caldria completar aproximadament el 40% de la documentació necessària per a obtenir la certificació. Per tant, s’ha dissenyat un Protocol que serveixi de guia per a un nou Projecte d’Ordenació i que permeti obtenir la certificació de les forests del parc.

Rigorous derivation of a nonlinear diffusion equation as fast-reaction limit of a continuous coagulation-fragmentation model with diffusion

Weak solutions of the spatially inhomogeneous (diffusive) Aizenmann-Bak model of coagulation-breakup within a bounded domain with homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions are shown to converge, in the fast reaction limit, towards local equilibria determined by their mass. Moreover, this mass is the solution of a nonlinear diffusion equation whose nonlinearity depends on the (size-dependent) diffusion coefficient. Initial data are assumed to have integrable zero order moment and square integrable first order moment in size, and finite entropy. In contrast to our previous result [CDF2], we are able to show the convergence without assuming uniform bounds from above and below on the number density of clusters.

Regularity and mass conservation for discrete coagulation-fragmentation equations with diffusion

We present a new a-priori estimate for discrete coagulation fragmentation systems with size-dependent diffusion within a bounded, regular domain confined by homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. Following from a duality argument, this a-priori estimate provides a global L2 bound on the mass density and was previously used, for instance, in the context of reaction-diffusion equations. In this paper we demonstrate two lines of applications for such an estimate: On the one hand, it enables to simplify parts of the known existence theory and allows to show existence of solutions for generalised models involving collision-induced, quadratic fragmentation terms for which the previous existence theory seems difficult to apply. On the other hand and most prominently, it proves mass conservation (and thus the absence of gelation) for almost all the coagulation coefficients for which mass conservation is known to hold true in the space homogeneous case.

Driven fragmentation of granular gases

The dynamics of homogeneously heated granular gases which fragment due to particle collisions is analyzed. We introduce a kinetic model which accounts for correlations induced at the grain collisions and analyze both the kinetics and relevant distribution functions these systems develop. The work combines analytical and numerical studies based on direct simulation Monte Carlo calculations. A broad family of fragmentation probabilities is considered, and its implications for the system kinetics are discussed. We show that generically these driven materials evolve asymptotically into a dynamical scaling regime. If the fragmentation probability tends to a constant, the grain number diverges at a finite time, leading to a shattering singularity. If the fragmentation probability vanishes, then the number of grains grows monotonously as a power law. We consider different homogeneous thermostats and show that the kinetics of these systems depends weakly on both the grain inelasticity and driving. We observe that fragmentation plays a relevant role in the shape of the velocity distribution of the particles. When the fragmentation is driven by local stochastic events, the longvelocity tail is essentially exponential independently of the heating frequency and the breaking rule. However, for a Lowe-Andersen thermostat, numerical evidence strongly supports the conjecture that the scaled velocity distribution follows a generalized exponential behavior f (c)~exp (−cⁿ), with n ≈1.2, regarding less the fragmentation mechanisms

Hyperbolic reaction-diffusion equations for a forest fire model

Forest fire models have been widely studied from the context of self-organized criticality and from the ecological properties of the forest and combustion. On the other hand, reaction-diffusion equations have interesting applications in biology and physics. We propose here a model for fire propagation in a forest by using hyperbolic reaction-diffusion equations. The dynamical and thermodynamical aspects of the model are analyzed in detail

The housing boom and forest fires

This paper provides evidence that the combination of land-use restrictions and anincreasing demand for housing can create incentives to induce forest fires as a means tocircumvent regulation and increase the supply of land available for residential construction.I estimate the effect of the price of housing on the incidence of forest fires using Spanishdata by region for 1991-2005. The results suggest that higher house prices led to asignificant increase in the incidence of forest fires in a region. I also find that the increasedincidence of forest fires led to a subsequent reduction in forest area and an increase in urbanland area. This evidence supports the claims often found in the media that propertyspeculators trying to build in forest land may be behind the recent increases in the incidenceof forest fires in Mediterranean countries.

Forest fires: Evaluation of government intervention measures

The purpose of this paper is to examine the relation between government measures, volunteer participation, climate variables and forest fires. A number of studies have related forest fires to causes of ignition, to fire history in one area, to the type of vegetation and weathercharacteristics or to community institutions, but there is little research on the relation between fire production and government prevention and extinction measures from a policy evaluation perspective.An observational approach is first applied to select forest fires in the north east of Spain. Taking a selection of fires with a certain size, a multiple regression analysis is conducted to find significant relations between policy instruments under the control of the government and the number of hectares burn in each case, controlling at the same time the effect of weather conditions and other context variables. The paper brings evidence on the effects of simultaneity and the relevance of recurring to army soldiers in specific days with extraordinary high simultaneity. The analysis also brings light on the effectiveness of twopreventive policies and of helicopters for extinction tasks.

Delocalization and fragmentation of collective modes in doped 4He drops

We have investigated the fragmentation of collective modes in doped 4He drops in the framework of a finite-range density-functional theory, as well as the delocalization of the impurity inside the cluster. Our results indicate that the impurity is gradually delocalized inside the drop as the size of the latter increases. As an example, results are shown in the case of Xe-4HeN systems up to N=112.

Advances in UAS for forest fire fighting

Peer reviewed

Project SKY-EYE: applying UAVs to forest fire fighter support and monitoring

Peer reviewed

EndoG links Bnip3-induced mitochondrial damage and caspase-independent DNA fragmentation in ischemic cardiomyocytes

Mitochondrial dysfunction, caspase activation and caspase-dependent DNA fragmentation are involved in cell damage in many tissues. However, differentiated cardiomyocytes repress the expression of the canonical apoptotic pathway and their death during ischemia is caspase-independent. The atypical BH3-only protein Bnip3 is involved in the process leading to caspase-independent DNA fragmentation in cardiomyocytes. However, the pathway by which DNA degradation ensues following Bnip3 activation is not resolved. To identify the mechanism involved, we analyzed the interdependence of Bnip3, Nix and EndoG in mitochondrial damage and DNA fragmentation during experimental ischemia in neonatal rat ventricular cardiomyocytes. Our results show that the expression of EndoG and Bnip3 increases in the heart throughout development, while the caspase-dependent machinery is silenced. TUNEL-positive DNA damage, which depends on caspase activity in other cells, is caspase-independent in ischemic cardiomyocytes and ischemia-induced DNA high and low molecular weight fragmentation is blocked by repressing EndoG expression. Ischemia-induced EndoG translocation and DNA degradation are prevented by silencing the expression of Bnip3, but not Nix, or by overexpressing Bcl-xL. These data establish a link between Bnip3 and EndoG-dependent, TUNEL-positive, DNA fragmentation in ischemic cardiomyocytes in the absence of caspases, defining an alternative cell death pathway in postmitotic cells.

Modelling bird species richness with neural networks for forest landscape management in NE Spain

Para preservar la biodiversidad de los ecosistemas forestales de la Europa mediterránea en escenarios actuales y futuros de cambio global mediante una gestión forestal sostenible es necesario determinar cómo influye el medio ambiente y las propias características de los bosques sobre la biodiversidad que éstos albergan. Con este propósito, se analizó la influencia de diferentes factores ambientales y de estructura y composición del bosque sobre la riqueza de aves forestales a escala 1 × 1 km en Cataluña (NE de España). Se construyeron modelos univariantes y multivariantes de redes neuronales para respectivamente explorar la respuesta individual a las variables y obtener un modelo parsimonioso (ecológicamente interpretable) y preciso. La superficie de bosque (con una fracción de cabida cubierta superior a 5%), la fracción de cabida cubierta media, la temperatura anual y la precipitación estival medias fueron los mejores predictores de la riqueza de aves forestales. La red neuronal multivariante obtenida tuvo una buena capacidad de generalización salvo en las localidades con una mayor riqueza. Además, los bosques con diferentes grados de apertura del dosel arbóreo, más maduros y más diversos en cuanto a su composición de especies arbóreas se asociaron de forma positiva con una mayor riqueza de aves forestales. Finalmente, se proporcionan directrices de gestión para la planificación forestal que permitan promover la diversidad ornítica en esta región de la Europa mediterránea.