Global eriodicity and complete integrability of discrete dynamical systems

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Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Modeling of hybrid systems by piecewise decomposition

Piecewise linear models systems arise as mathematical models of systems in many practical applications, often from linearization for nonlinear systems. There are two main approaches of dealing with these systems according to their continuous or discrete-time aspects. We propose an approach which is based on the state transformation, more particularly the partition of the phase portrait in different regions where each subregion is modeled as a two-dimensional linear time invariant system. Then the Takagi-Sugeno model, which is a combination of local model is calculated. The simulation results show that the Alpha partition is well-suited for dealing with such a system

Simulation methods with extended stability for stiff biochemical kinetics

Background: With increasing computer power, simulating the dynamics of complex systems in chemistry and biology is becoming increasingly routine. The modelling of individual reactions in (bio)chemical systems involves a large number of random events that can be simulated by the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). The key quantity is the step size, or waiting time, τ, whose value inversely depends on the size of the propensities of the different channel reactions and which needs to be re-evaluated after every firing event. Such a discrete event simulation may be extremely expensive, in particular for stiff systems where τ can be very short due to the fast kinetics of some of the channel reactions. Several alternative methods have been put forward to increase the integration step size. The so-called τ-leap approach takes a larger step size by allowing all the reactions to fire, from a Poisson or Binomial distribution, within that step. Although the expected value for the different species in the reactive system is maintained with respect to more precise methods, the variance at steady state can suffer from large errors as τ grows. Results: In this paper we extend Poisson τ-leap methods to a general class of Runge-Kutta (RK) τ-leap methods. We show that with the proper selection of the coefficients, the variance of the extended τ-leap can be well-behaved, leading to significantly larger step sizes.Conclusions: The benefit of adapting the extended method to the use of RK frameworks is clear in terms of speed of calculation, as the number of evaluations of the Poisson distribution is still one set per time step, as in the original τ-leap method. The approach paves the way to explore new multiscale methods to simulate (bio)chemical systems.

Modelling diffusion of innovations in a social network

A simple model of diffusion of innovations in a social network with upgrading costs is introduced. Agents are characterized by a single real variable, their technological level. According to local information, agents decide whether to upgrade their level or not, balancing their possible benefit with the upgrading cost. A critical point where technological avalanches display a power-law behavior is also found. This critical point is characterized by a macroscopic observable that turns out to optimize technological growth in the stationary state. Analytical results supporting our findings are found for the globally coupled case.

Nonlinear chemoconvection in the Methylene-blue-glucose system

Interfacial hydrodynamic instabilities arise in a range of chemical systems. One mechanism for instability is the occurrence of unstable density gradients due to the accumulation of reaction products. In this paper we conduct two-dimensional nonlinear numerical simulations for a member of this class of system: the methylene-blue¿glucose reaction. The result of these reactions is the oxidation of glucose to a relatively, but marginally, dense product, gluconic acid, that accumulates at oxygen permeable interfaces, such as the surface open to the atmosphere. The reaction is catalyzed by methylene-blue. We show that simulations help to disassemble the mechanisms responsible for the onset of instability and evolution of patterns, and we demonstrate that some of the results are remarkably consistent with experiments. We probe the impact of the upper oxygen boundary condition, for fixed flux, fixed concentration, or mixed boundary conditions, and find significant qualitative differences in solution behavior; structures either attract or repel one another depending on the boundary condition imposed. We suggest that measurement of the form of the boundary condition is possible via observation of oxygen penetration, and improved product yields may be obtained via proper control of boundary conditions in an engineering setting. We also investigate the dependence on parameters such as the Rayleigh number and depth. Finally, we find that pseudo-steady linear and weakly nonlinear techniques described elsewhere are useful tools for predicting the behavior of instabilities beyond their formal range of validity, as good agreement is obtained with the simulations.

On the computation of reducible invariant tori on a parallel computer

We present an algorithm for the computation of reducible invariant tori of discrete dynamical systems that is suitable for tori of dimensions larger than 1. It is based on a quadratically convergent scheme that approximates, at the same time, the Fourier series of the torus, its Floquet transformation, and its Floquet matrix. The Floquet matrix describes the linearization of the dynamics around the torus and, hence, its linear stability. The algorithm presents a high degree of parallelism, and the computational effort grows linearly with the number of Fourier modes needed to represent the solution. For these reasons it is a very good option to compute quasi-periodic solutions with several basic frequencies. The paper includes some examples (flows) to show the efficiency of the method in a parallel computer. In these flows we compute invariant tori of dimensions up to 5, by taking suitable sections.

Unusual voltage sag event detection in power systems

Three multivariate statistical tools (principal component analysis, factor analysis, analysis discriminant) have been tested to characterize and model the sags registered in distribution substations. Those models use several features to represent the magnitude, duration and unbalanced grade of sags. They have been obtained from voltage and current waveforms. The techniques are tested and compared using 69 registers of sags. The advantages and drawbacks of each technique are listed

Radar analysis of the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems during the 10 June 2000 event

The 10 June 2000 event was the largest flash flood event that occurred in the Northeast of Spain in the late 20th century, both as regards its meteorological features and its considerable social impact. This paper focuses on analysis of the structures that produced the heavy rainfalls, especially from the point of view of meteorological radar. Due to the fact that this case is a good example of a Mediterranean flash flood event, a final objective of this paper is to undertake a description of the evolution of the rainfall structure that would be sufficiently clear to be understood at an interdisciplinary forum. Then, it could be useful not only to improve conceptual meteorological models, but also for application in downscaling models. The main precipitation structure was a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that crossed the region and that developed as a consequence of the merging of two previous squall lines. The paper analyses the main meteorological features that led to the development and triggering of the heavy rainfalls, with special emphasis on the features of this MCS, its life cycle and its dynamic features. To this end, 2-D and 3-D algorithms were applied to the imagery recorded over the complete life cycle of the structures, which lasted approximately 18 h. Mesoscale and synoptic information were also considered. Results show that it was an NS-MCS, quasi-stationary during its stage of maturity as a consequence of the formation of a convective train, the different displacement directions of the 2-D structures and the 3-D structures, including the propagation of new cells, and the slow movement of the convergence line associated with the Mediterranean mesoscale low.

Regularity and mass conservation for discrete coagulation-fragmentation equations with diffusion

We present a new a-priori estimate for discrete coagulation fragmentation systems with size-dependent diffusion within a bounded, regular domain confined by homogeneous Neumann boundary conditions. Following from a duality argument, this a-priori estimate provides a global L2 bound on the mass density and was previously used, for instance, in the context of reaction-diffusion equations. In this paper we demonstrate two lines of applications for such an estimate: On the one hand, it enables to simplify parts of the known existence theory and allows to show existence of solutions for generalised models involving collision-induced, quadratic fragmentation terms for which the previous existence theory seems difficult to apply. On the other hand and most prominently, it proves mass conservation (and thus the absence of gelation) for almost all the coagulation coefficients for which mass conservation is known to hold true in the space homogeneous case.

Dynamical systems of type (m,n) and their C*-algebras

Given positive integers n and m, we consider dynamical systems in which n copies of a topological space is homeomorphic to m copies of that same space. The universal such system is shown to arise naturally from the study of a C*-algebra we denote by Om;n, which in turn is obtained as a quotient of the well known Leavitt C*-algebra Lm;n, a process meant to transform the generating set of partial isometries of Lm;n into a tame set. Describing Om;n as the crossed-product of the universal (m; n) -dynamical system by a partial action of the free group Fm+n, we show that Om;n is not exact when n and m are both greater than or equal to 2, but the corresponding reduced crossed-product, denoted Or m;n, is shown to be exact and non-nuclear. Still under the assumption that m; n &= 2, we prove that the partial action of Fm+n is topologically free and that Or m;n satisfies property (SP) (small projections). We also show that Or m;n admits no finite dimensional representations. The techniques developed to treat this system include several new results pertaining to the theory of Fell bundles over discrete groups.

WePreserve 2009: DPE/Planets/CASPAR/nestor Joint Training Event: The Preservation challenge: basic concepts and practical applications (Barcelona, 23-27 març 2009)

Reseña del congreso WePreserve 2009 que tuvo lugar los pasados 23 al 27 de marzo en Barcelona, organizadopor la Facultad de Biblioteconomía y Documentación de la Universitat de Barcelona, con la colaboración del Institut d'Estudis Catalans, la Biblioteca de Catalunya y el Consorci de Biblioteques de Barcelona. El seminario 2009 WePreserve se celebra anualmente desde el año 2007 y participan todas las figuras de referencia europeas en materia de investigación en sistemas y metodologías que garantizan la preservación digital de los documentos: Digital Preservation Europe (DPE), Preservation and Long-term Access Through Networked Services (Planets), Cultural Artistic and Scientific Knowledge for Preservation, Access and Retrieval (CASPAR), y Network of expertise in Digital long-term preservation (nestor).

New delay-dependent stability criteria for uncertain neutral systems with mixed time-varying delays and nonlinear perturbations

The problem of stability analysis for a class of neutral systems with mixed time-varying neutral, discrete and distributed delays and nonlinear parameter perturbations is addressed. By introducing a novel Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional and combining the descriptor model transformation, the Leibniz-Newton formula, some free-weighting matrices, and a suitable change of variables, new sufficient conditions are established for the stability of the considered system, which are neutral-delay-dependent, discrete-delay-range dependent, and distributeddelay-dependent. The conditions are presented in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) and can be efficiently solved using convex programming techniques. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Probabilistic maximal covering location-allocation models with constrained waiting time or queue length for congested systems

When dealing with the design of service networks, such as healthand EMS services, banking or distributed ticket selling services, thelocation of service centers has a strong influence on the congestion ateach of them, and consequently, on the quality of service. In this paper,several models are presented to consider service congestion. The firstmodel addresses the issue of the location of the least number of single--servercenters such that all the population is served within a standard distance,and nobody stands in line for a time longer than a given time--limit, or withmore than a predetermined number of other clients. We then formulateseveral maximal coverage models, with one or more servers per service center.A new heuristic is developed to solve the models and tested in a 30--nodesnetwork.