43 resultados para collapse of speculative bubbles

em Consorci de Serveis Universitaris de Catalunya (CSUC), Spain


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We develop a stylized model of economic growth with bubbles. In this model, changes in investorsentiment lead to the appearance and collapse of macroeconomic bubbles or pyramid schemes.We show how these bubbles mitigate the effects of financial frictions. During bubbly episodes,unproductive investors demand bubbles while productive investors supply them. These transfersof resources improve the efficiency at which the economy operates, expanding consumption, thecapital stock and output. When bubbly episodes end, these transfers stop and consumption, thecapital stock and output contract. We characterize the stochastic equilibria of the model and arguethat they provide a natural way of introducing bubble shocks into business cycle models.

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We present experiments where opposed pairs of planar parallel disclination lines of topological strength s=±1 move due to their mutual attraction. Our measurements show that their motion is clearly asymmetric, with +1 defects moving up to twice as fast as -1 ones. This is a clear indication of backflow, given the intrinsic isotropic elasticity of our system. A phenomenological model is able to account for the experimental observations by renormalizing the orientational diffusivity estimated from the velocity of each defect.

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We explore a view of the crisis as a shock to investor sentiment that led to the collapse of abubble or pyramid scheme in financial markets. We embed this view in a standard model of thefinancial accelerator and explore its empirical and policy implications. In particular, we show howthe model can account for: (i) a gradual and protracted expansionary phase followed by a suddenand sharp recession; (ii) the connection (or lack of connection!) between financial and real economicactivity and; (iii) a fast and strong transmission of shocks across countries. We also use the modelto explore the role of fiscal policy.

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We study theoretical and empirical aspects of the mean exit time (MET) of financial time series. The theoretical modeling is done within the framework of continuous time random walk. We empirically verify that the mean exit time follows a quadratic scaling law and it has associated a prefactor which is specific to the analyzed stock. We perform a series of statistical tests to determine which kind of correlation are responsible for this specificity. The main contribution is associated with the autocorrelation property of stock returns. We introduce and solve analytically both two-state and three-state Markov chain models. The analytical results obtained with the two-state Markov chain model allows us to obtain a data collapse of the 20 measured MET profiles in a single master curve.

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Price bubbles in an Arrow-Debreu valuation equilibrium in infinite-timeeconomy are a manifestation of lack of countable additivity of valuationof assets. In contrast, known examples of price bubbles in sequentialequilibrium in infinite time cannot be attributed to the lack of countableadditivity of valuation. In this paper we develop a theory of valuation ofassets in sequential markets (with no uncertainty) and study the nature ofprice bubbles in light of this theory. We consider an operator, calledpayoff pricing functional, that maps a sequence of payoffs to the minimumcost of an asset holding strategy that generates it. We show that thepayoff pricing functional is linear and countably additive on the set ofpositive payoffs if and only if there is no Ponzi scheme, and providedthat there is no restriction on long positions in the assets. In the knownexamples of equilibrium price bubbles in sequential markets valuation islinear and countably additive. The presence of a price bubble indicatesthat the asset's dividends can be purchased in sequential markers at acost lower than the asset's price. We also present examples of equilibriumprice bubbles in which valuation is nonlinear but not countably additive.

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Over the past decade the US has experienced widening current account deficits and a steady deterioration of its net foreign asset position. During the second half of the 1990s, this deterioration was fueled by foreign investment in a booming US stock market. During the first half of the 2000s, this deterioration has been fuelled by foreign purchases of rapidly increasing US government debt. A somewhat surprising aspect of the current debate is thatstock market movements and fiscal policy choices have been largely treated as unrelated events. Stock market movements are usually interpreted as reflecting exogenous changes in perceived or real productivity, while budget deficits are usually understood as a mainly political decision. We challenge this view here and develop two alternative interpretations. Both are based on the notion that a bubble (the dot-com bubble) has been driving the stock market, but differ in their assumptions about the interactions between this bubble and fiscal policy (the Bush deficits). The benevolent view holds that a change in investorsentiment led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble and the Bush deficits were a welfare-improving policy response to this event. The cynical view holds instead that the Bush deficits led to the collapse of the dot-com bubble as the new administration tried to appropriate rents from foreign investors. We discuss the implications of each of these views for the future evolution of the US economy and, in particular, its net foreign asset position.

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It is well accepted that people resist evidence that contradicts their beliefs.Moreover, despite their training, many scientists reject results that are inconsistent withtheir theories. This phenomenon is discussed in relation to the field of judgment anddecision making by describing four case studies. These concern findings that clinical judgment is less predictive than actuarial models; simple methods have proven superiorto more theoretically correct methods in times series forecasting; equal weighting ofvariables is often more accurate than using differential weights; and decisions cansometimes be improved by discarding relevant information. All findings relate to theapparently difficult-to-accept idea that simple models can predict complex phenomenabetter than complex ones. It is true that there is a scientific market place for ideas.However, like its economic counterpart, it is subject to inefficiencies (e.g., thinness,asymmetric information, and speculative bubbles). Unfortunately, the market is only correct in the long-run. The road to enlightenment is bumpy.

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Time-resolved imaging is carried out to study the dynamics of the laser-induced forward transfer of an aqueous solution at different laser fluences. The transfer mechanisms are elucidated, and directly correlated with the material deposited at the analyzed irradiation conditions. It is found that there exists a fluence range in which regular and well-defined droplets are deposited. In this case, laser pulse energy absorption results in the formation of a plasma, which expansion originates a cavitation bubble in the liquid. After the further expansion and collapse of the bubble, a long and uniform jet is developed, which advances at a constant velocity until it reaches the receptor substrate. On the other hand, for lower fluences no material is deposited. In this case, although a jet can be also generated, it recoils before reaching the substrate. For higher fluences, splashing is observed on the receptor substrate due to the bursting of the cavitation bubble. Finally, a discussion of the possible mechanisms which lead to such singular dynamics is also provided.

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We develop a covariant quantum theory of fluctuations on vacuum domain walls and strings. The fluctuations are described by a scalar field defined on the classical world sheet of the defects. We consider the following cases: straight strings and planar walls in flat space, true vacuum bubbles nucleating in false vacuum, and strings and walls nucleating during inflation. The quantum state for the perturbations is constructed so that it respects the original symmetries of the classical solution. In particular, for the case of vacuum bubbles and nucleating strings and walls, the geometry of the world sheet is that of a lower-dimensional de Sitter space, and the problem reduces to the quantization of a scalar field of tachyonic mass in de Sitter space. In all cases, the root-mean-squared fluctuation is evaluated in detail, and the physical implications are briefly discussed.

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We present a theoretical study of the recently observed dynamical regimes of paramagnetic colloidal particles externally driven above a regular lattice of magnetic bubbles [P. Tierno, T. H. Johansen, and T. M. Fischer, Phys. Rev. Lett. 99, 038303 (2007)]. An external precessing magnetic field alters the potential generated by the surface of the film in such a way to either drive the particle circularly around one bubble, ballistically through the array, or in triangular orbits on the interstitial regions between the bubbles. In the ballistic regime, we observe different trajectories performed by the particles phase locked with the external driving. Superdiffusive motion, which was experimentally found bridging the localized and delocalized dynamics, emerge only by introducing a certain degree of randomness into the bubbles size distribution.

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We have studied the nucleation and the physical properties of a -1/2 wedge disclination line near the free surface of a confined nematic liquid crystal. The position of the disclination line has been related to the material parameters (elastic constants, anchoring energy, and favored anchoring angle of the molecules at the free surface). The use of a planar model for the structure of the director field (whose predictions have been contrasted to those of a fully three-dimensional model) has allowed us to relate the experimentally observed position of the disclination line to the relevant properties of the liquid crystals. In particular, we have been able to observe the collapse of the disclination line due to a temperature-induced anchoring-angle transition, which has allowed us to rule out the presence of a real disclination line near the nematic/isotropic front in directional growth experiments.

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We analyze the stability of small bubbles in a closed system with fixed volume, temperature, and number of molecules. We show that there exists a minimum stable size of a bubble. Thus there exists a range of densities where no stable bubbles are allowed and the system has a homogeneous density which is lower than the coexistence density of the liquid. This becomes possible due to the finite liquid compressibility. Capillary analysis within the developed"modified bubble" model illustrates that the existence of the minimum bubble size is associated to the compressibility and it is not possible when the liquid is strictly incompressible. This finding is expected to have very important implications in cavitation and boiling.

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S’han sintetitzat estructures de CdS a partir de sílice mesoporosa (SBA-15, SBA-16 i KIT-6) pel mètode del motlle rígid i s’han caracteritzat mitjançant TEM i XRD, i se n’han estudiat les seves propietats de fotoluminescència mitjançant CSLM. Els resultats obtinguts s’han comparat amb una mostra de CdS comercial. El CdS SBA-15 ha conservat l’estructura mesoporosa del motlle, mentre que en els altres dos casos s’ha mantingut només de manera parcial. Per a totes les mostres, la mida de partícula es troba en el rang dels 3-10 nm. Pel que fa a l’estructura, s’ha detectat fase wurtzita i zinc-blenda, en diferents percentatges entre elles. La formació de wurtzita pot ser en part responsable del col·lapse parcial de la mesostructura. El pic de màxima emissió en l’espectre de fotoluminescència es desplaça entre les diferents estructures segons la mida de partícula. L’amplada del pic varia en funció del grau de dispersió de partícula, de manera que s’observa que aquesta és inferior en les mostres sintetitzades respecte de la comercial.

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Aquest treball emmarca la vida de Juli Cèsar en el procés d'esfondrament de la República romana i la guerra civil. La seva vida n'és el fil conductor. També hi ha anàlisis descontextualitzades d'aquesta vida (la lluita entre optimates i populares, els mandats extraordinaris, la figura dels tribuns de la plebs i l'imperialisme romà), necessaris per a entendre aquest pas de República a Principat.

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La crisi i esfondrament del pensament metafísic heretat de la modernitat deixa la filosofia contemporània davant d'un nou paradigma on el coneixement s’ha de construir prescindint de tota identitat i fonamentació. El meu projecte s’estableix com un recorregut descendent que parteix d’un àmbit concret, com és el del problema de la manca de fonamentació en la filosofia política contemporània, per arribar a la veritable arrel del problema general que no és altre que la mateixa naturalesa del llenguatge filosòfic. El punt de partida és la pregunta sobre la possibilitat d’una filosofia política en termes postmetafísics. La filosofia política, atrapada entre les forces de la tirania unitària del concepte metafísic i la dissolució pràctica en pro de la realitat instrumental, traça ponts cap a l’estètica i la deconstrucció, que tenen com a corol•lari final qüestionar-nos els propis límits del pensament polític. El concepte d’impolític és una sortida deconstructiva a aquest atzucac. Des d’Esposito, Rancière, Nancy, però sobretot Massimo Cacciari, he aprofundit en el paradigma postmetafísic que origina aquesta negació política de la pròpia política, política com els seus límits, relació com a distància i identitat com a silenci. És evident que la clau de volta és l’herència i recepció contemporània de Nietzsche i la seva crítica a la transcendentalitat moderna en el sí de l’elaboració d’un coneixement en un naufragi constant pel fracàs de la síntesi que anhela. És aquesta herència la que ha possibilitat aquest pensament negatiu contemporani, el del joc wittgensteinià, la deconstrucció del valor que queda convertit en el seu propi marge (Derrida). Definim així no només una comunitat política basada en la incommensurabilitat dels seus membres alhora buits de contingut (Musil), sinó un model de llenguatge que és el seu propi silenci, un llenguatge en contínua lluita contra sí mateix. El meu projecte és una relectura d’aquesta veritat no identitària on el concepte de diàleg pren una importància cabdal. La filosofia de la música aquí es presenta com un terreny fèrtil d’eines conceptuals a l’hora de desenvolupar-ho. La música és el llenguatge negatiu que només troba possibilitat en la seva pròpia impossibilitat de contingut sintètic. Més enllà de les referències obligatòries a chönberg i Adorno entre altres, el camí iniciat per Bergson amb la introducció de la temporalitat a la discussió obra la porta al paper de l’esdveniment en aquest discurs sobre la impossibilitat. Tornant a la filosofia, on el propi llenguatge filosòfic es defineix ja com a impossible, l’esdeveniment reobre l’antiga tensió entre l’escriptura i la paraula viva, veritable fonament del problema, i vèrtex de la possibilitat d’aquesta filosofia impossible.