Priors about observables in vector autoregressions

Standard practice in Bayesian VARs is to formulate priors on the autoregressive parameters, but economists and policy makers actually have priors about the behavior of observable variables. We show how this kind of prior can be used in a VAR under strict probability theory principles. We state the inverse problem to be solved and we propose a numerical algorithm that works well in practical situations with a very large number of parameters. We prove various convergence theorems for the algorithm. As an application, we first show that the results in Christiano et al. (1999) are very sensitive to the introduction of various priors that are widely used. These priors turn out to be associated with undesirable priors on observables. But an empirical prior on observables helps clarify the relevance of these estimates: we find much higher persistence of output responses to monetary policy shocks than the one reported in Christiano et al. (1999) and a significantly larger total effect.

A low dimensional Kalman filter for systems with lagged observables

This note describes how the Kalman filter can be modified to allow for thevector of observables to be a function of lagged variables without increasing the dimensionof the state vector in the filter. This is useful in applications where it is desirable to keepthe dimension of the state vector low. The modified filter and accompanying code (whichnests the standard filter) can be used to compute (i) the steady state Kalman filter (ii) thelog likelihood of a parameterized state space model conditional on a history of observables(iii) a smoothed estimate of latent state variables and (iv) a draw from the distribution oflatent states conditional on a history of observables.

Issue of time in generally covariant theories and the Komar-Bergmann approach to observables in general relativity

Diffeomorphism-induced symmetry transformations and time evolution are distinct operations in generally covariant theories formulated in phase space. Time is not frozen. Diffeomorphism invariants are consequently not necessarily constants of the motion. Time-dependent invariants arise through the choice of an intrinsic time, or equivalently through the imposition of time-dependent gauge fixation conditions. One example of such a time-dependent gauge fixing is the Komar-Bergmann use of Weyl curvature scalars in general relativity. An analogous gauge fixing is also imposed for the relativistic free particle and the resulting complete set time-dependent invariants for this exactly solvable model are displayed. In contrast with the free particle case, we show that gauge invariants that are simultaneously constants of motion cannot exist in general relativity. They vary with intrinsic time.

Observables de partículas relativistas

We study the most general unitary transformation that transform the Hamiltonians of particles of spins 0, 1/2 or 1, into Hamiltonians containing even or odd matrices only. We present also the expressions for the position operators for each transformation that are valid for the three kinds of particles mentioned above.

Los no observables en Psicologia

no abstract

Primordial Perturbations in Einstein-Aether theories

El nostre objectiu es l'estudi d'extensions de la Relativitat General i, en particular, estem interessats en les teories que continguin camps vectorials addicionals. En aquests tipus de teories es necessari imposar que el vector ha de tenir norma fixa per evitar la presència d'un fantasma o grau de llibertat amb terme cinètic negatiu, i això implica que la simetria Lorentz està trencada espontàniament. El camp del aether només interactua gravitatòriament i la seva presència es difícil de detectar, no obstant això, durant inflació les fluctuacions del buit a escales petites d'un camp lleuger pot deixar una empremta en observables com les anisotropies del fons de radiació de microones. Les fluctuacions del Einstein-aether es comporten com els camps sense massa i això fa que inflació generi modes de longitud de ona llarga en els sectors escalar i vectorial. Hem estudiat la signatura del Einstein-aether dins l'espectre de pertorbacions primordials lluny del límit de de Sitter de inflació. Aquests modes escalars i vectorials poden deixar una empremta significativa en la radiació de fons de microones en funció dels paràmetres del model. Les observacions del fons de radiació de microones imposen restriccions fenomenològiques que redueixen els límits existents per aquesta classe de teoria. Amb aquest estudi del aether també esperem millorar el coneixement que tenim de una classe més ampla de teories que exhibeixen el mateix tipus de trencament de simetria.

Estudi dels factors mol•leculars i cel•lulars implicats en les alteracions corticals de la Síndrome de down

Investigación producida a partir de una estancia en en el Instituto de Neurociencias de la Universidad Miguel Hernández entre enero y mayo del 2007. El SD o trisomía del cromosoma 21 es la aneuploidía cromosómica más frecuente y constituye la principal causa de retraso mental. Las cuestiones que aún son objeto de debate en el SD son: 1) si pueden existir, entre los genes triplicados, algunos que contribuyan de forma más importante a algunos de los fenotipos observables en SD y, 2) hasta qué punto los fenotipos observados derivan de alteraciones del neurodesarrollo o de alteraciones funcionales en el adulto. Con el fin de abordar esta cuestión nos hemos centrado en las alteraciones cognitivas del SD y hemos realizado la caracterización del papel de Dyrk1A en el desarrollo de una estructura clave para esta función: la corteza cerebral. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que la sobrexpresión de Dyrk1A produce un desajuste proliferativo dando lugar a un retraso en la formación de la subplaca, con consecuencias en la laminación de la placa cortical. Las alteraciones en la corticogénesis van a tener consecuencias en el establecimiento de la conectividad tálamo-cortical que se encuentra marcadamente retrasada. En el hipocampo, los ratones transgénicos mostraron una reducción del grosor de las capas. Estos resultados pueden ser relevantes para el SD, puesto que es similar a lo observado en fetos SD.

Fuzzy set Theory and Quantum Chemistry

Es discuteixen breument algunes consideracions sobre l'aplicació de la Teoria delsConjunts difusos a la Química quàntica. Es demostra aqui que molts conceptes químics associats a la teoria són adequats per ésser connectats amb l'estructura dels Conjunts difusos. També s'explica com algunes descripcions teoriques dels observables quàntics espotencien tractant-les amb les eines associades als esmentats Conjunts difusos. La funciódensitat es pren com a exemple de l'ús de distribucions de possibilitat al mateix temps queles distribucions de probabilitat quàntiques

Bridging DSGE models and the raw data

A method to estimate DSGE models using the raw data is proposed. The approachlinks the observables to the model counterparts via a flexible specification which doesnot require the model-based component to be solely located at business cycle frequencies,allows the non model-based component to take various time series patterns, andpermits model misspecification. Applying standard data transformations induce biasesin structural estimates and distortions in the policy conclusions. The proposed approachrecovers important model-based features in selected experimental designs. Twowidely discussed issues are used to illustrate its practical use.

Speed of convergence of recursive least squares learning with ARMA perceptions

This paper fills a gap in the existing literature on least squareslearning in linear rational expectations models by studying a setup inwhich agents learn by fitting ARMA models to a subset of the statevariables. This is a natural specification in models with privateinformation because in the presence of hidden state variables, agentshave an incentive to condition forecasts on the infinite past recordsof observables. We study a particular setting in which it sufficesfor agents to fit a first order ARMA process, which preserves thetractability of a finite dimensional parameterization, while permittingconditioning on the infinite past record. We describe how previousresults (Marcet and Sargent [1989a, 1989b] can be adapted to handlethe convergence of estimators of an ARMA process in our self--referentialenvironment. We also study ``rates'' of convergence analytically and viacomputer simulation.

Job dynamics, correlated shocks and wage profiles

We generalize the Mortensen-Pissarides (1994) model of the labor marketwith a more realistic structure for the stochastic process of theshocks to the worker-firm match. In this way we can acommodate theempirical observation that hazard rates of job termination decrease andaverage wages increase with job tenure. Besides being able to fit bettersome observables of the model, the changes we introduce are nontrivialfor the analysis of policies as well.

El modelat del massís de Begur

In the present paper, the diverse morphologies observed in the Begur Mountain Range are described and the controlling development factors and their relationships are analized. Finally, a systematics of the different rock types macro and microforms is presented

Delta(1232) isobar excitations and the ground state of nuclei

The influence of Delta isobar components on the ground-state properties of nuclear systems is investigated for nuclear matter as well as finite nuclei. Many-body wave functions, including isobar configurations and binding energies, are evaluated employing the framework of the coupled-cluster theory. It is demonstrated that the effect of isobar configurations depends in a rather sensitive way on the model used for the baryon-baryon interaction. As examples for realistic baryon-baryon interactions with explicit inclusion of isobar channels we use the local (V28) and nonlocal meson-exchange potentials (Bonn2000) but also a model recently developed by the Salamanca group, which is based on a quark picture. The differences obtained for the nuclear observables are related to the treatment of the interaction, the pi-exchange contributions in particular, at high momentum transfers.