A sharp concentration inequality with applications

We present a new general concentration-of-measure inequality and illustrate its power by applications in random combinatorics. The results find direct applications in some problems of learning theory.

The P-median problem in a changing network: The case of Barcelona

In this paper a p--median--like model is formulated to address theissue of locating new facilities when there is uncertainty. Severalpossible future scenarios with respect to demand and/or the travel times/distanceparameters are presented. The planner will want a strategy of positioning thatwill do as ``well as possible'' over the future scenarios. This paper presents a discrete location model formulation to address this P--Medianproblem under uncertainty. The model is applied to the location of firestations in Barcelona.

A house price index defined in the potential outcomes framework

Current methods for constructing house price indices are based on comparisons of sale prices of residential properties sold two or more times and on regression of the sale prices on the attributes of the properties and of their locations. The two methods have well recognised deficiencies, selection bias and model assumptions, respectively. We introduce a new method based on propensity score matching. The average house prices for two periods are compared by selecting pairs of properties, one sold in each period, that are as similar on a set of available attributes (covariates) as is feasible to arrange. The uncertainty associated with such matching is addressed by multiple imputation, framing the problem as involving missing values. The method is applied to aregister of transactions ofresidential properties in New Zealand and compared with the established alternatives.

An adaptation of correspondence analysis for square tables

The application of correspondence analysis to square asymmetrictables is often unsuccessful because of the strong role played by thediagonal entries of the matrix, obscuring the data off the diagonal. A simplemodification of the centering of the matrix, coupled with the correspondingchange in row and column masses and row and column metrics, allows the tableto be decomposed into symmetric and skew--symmetric components, which canthen be analyzed separately. The symmetric and skew--symmetric analyses canbe performed using a simple correspondence analysis program if the data areset up in a special block format.

On the drivers of commodity co-movement: Evidence from biofuels

We use the recent introduction of biofuels to study the effect of industry factors on the relationshipsbetween wholesale commodity prices. Correlations between agricultural products and oilare strongest in the 2005-09 period, coinciding with the boom of biofuels, and remain substantialuntil 2011. We disentangle three possible drivers for the linkage: substitution, energy costs, andfinancialization. The timing and magnitude of the biofuels-to-oil relationships are different to thoseof other commodities, and far higher than can be justified by costs and financialization. Substitutionand costs drive the monthly correlations of long-term futures, and each of the three contributeequally to the daily co-movement of the short-term ones. The findings survive many robustnesschecks and appear in the stock market.

Adaptive approach heuristics for the generalized assignment problem

The Generalized Assignment Problem consists in assigning a setof tasks to a set of agents with minimum cost. Each agent hasa limited amount of a single resource and each task must beassigned to one and only one agent, requiring a certain amountof the resource of the agent. We present new metaheuristics forthe generalized assignment problem based on hybrid approaches.One metaheuristic is a MAX-MIN Ant System (MMAS), an improvedversion of the Ant System, which was recently proposed byStutzle and Hoos to combinatorial optimization problems, and itcan be seen has an adaptive sampling algorithm that takes inconsideration the experience gathered in earlier iterations ofthe algorithm. Moreover, the latter heuristic is combined withlocal search and tabu search heuristics to improve the search.A greedy randomized adaptive search heuristic (GRASP) is alsoproposed. Several neighborhoods are studied, including one basedon ejection chains that produces good moves withoutincreasing the computational effort. We present computationalresults of the comparative performance, followed by concludingremarks and ideas on future research in generalized assignmentrelated problems.

The determinants of pricing in pharmaceuticals: Are U.S. prices really higher than those of Canada?

This paper studies price determination in pharmaceutical markets using data for 25 countries, six years and a comprehensive list of products from the MIDAS IMS database. We show that market power and the quality of the product has a significantly positive impact of prices. The nationality of the producer appears to have a small and often insignificant impact on prices, which suggests that countries which regulates prices have relatively little power to do it in a way that advances narrow national interest. We produce a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon based on the fact that low negotiated prices in a country would have a knock-on effect in other markets, and is thus strongly resisted by producers.Another key finding is that the U.S. has prices that are not significantly higher than those of countries with similar income levels. This, together with the former observation on the effect of the nationality of producers casts doubt on the ability of countries to pursue "free-riding" regulation.

Statistics in archaeology: New directions

Connections between Statistics and Archaeology have always appeared veryfruitful. The objective of this paper is to offer an outlook of somestatistical techniques that are being developed in the most recentyears and that can be of interest for archaeologists in the short run.

Measuring the stability of histogram appearance when the anchor position is changed

Although the histogram is the most widely used density estimator, itis well--known that the appearance of a constructed histogram for a given binwidth can change markedly for different choices of anchor position. In thispaper we construct a stability index $G$ that assesses the potential changesin the appearance of histograms for a given data set and bin width as theanchor position changes. If a particular bin width choice leads to an unstableappearance, the arbitrary choice of any one anchor position is dangerous, anda different bin width should be considered. The index is based on the statisticalroughness of the histogram estimate. We show via Monte Carlo simulation thatdensities with more structure are more likely to lead to histograms withunstable appearance. In addition, ignoring the precision to which the datavalues are provided when choosing the bin width leads to instability. We provideseveral real data examples to illustrate the properties of $G$. Applicationsto other binned density estimators are also discussed.

The aftermath of Civil War

Using an event-study methodology, this paper analyzes the aftermath of civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses on those experiences where the end of conflict marks the beginning of a relatively lasting peace. The paper considers 41 countries involved in internal wars in the period 1960-2003. In order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, the paper considers a host of social areas represented by basic indicators of economic performance, health and education, political development, demographic trends, and conflict and security issues. For each of these indicators, the paper first compares the post- and pre-war situations and then examines their dynamic trends during the post-conflict period. It conducts this analysis both in absolute and relative terms, the latter in relation to control groups of otherwise similar countries. The paper concludes that, even though war has devastating effects and its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end of war marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvement are indeed achieved.

Local volatility changes in the black-scholes model

In this paper we address a problem arising in risk management; namely the study of price variations of different contingent claims in the Black-Scholes model due to anticipating future events. The method we propose to use is an extension of the classical Vega index, i.e. the price derivative with respect to the constant volatility, in thesense that we perturb the volatility in different directions. Thisdirectional derivative, which we denote the local Vega index, will serve as the main object in the paper and one of the purposes is to relate it to the classical Vega index. We show that for all contingent claims studied in this paper the local Vega index can be expressed as a weighted average of the perturbation in volatility. In the particular case where the interest rate and the volatility are constant and the perturbation is deterministic, the local Vega index is an average of this perturbation multiplied by the classical Vega index. We also study the well-known goal problem of maximizing the probability of a perfect hedge and show that the speed of convergence is in fact dependent of the local Vega index.

Correspondence analysis of raw data

Correspondence analysis has found extensive use in ecology, archeology, linguisticsand the social sciences as a method for visualizing the patterns of association in a table offrequencies or nonnegative ratio-scale data. Inherent to the method is the expression of the datain each row or each column relative to their respective totals, and it is these sets of relativevalues (called profiles) that are visualized. This relativization of the data makes perfect sensewhen the margins of the table represent samples from sub-populations of inherently differentsizes. But in some ecological applications sampling is performed on equal areas or equalvolumes so that the absolute levels of the observed occurrences may be of relevance, in whichcase relativization may not be required. In this paper we define the correspondence analysis ofthe raw unrelativized data and discuss its properties, comparing this new method to regularcorrespondence analysis and to a related variant of non-symmetric correspondence analysis.

Weighted Kernel regression

In the fixed design regression model, additional weights areconsidered for the Nadaraya--Watson and Gasser--M\"uller kernel estimators.We study their asymptotic behavior and the relationships between new andclassical estimators. For a simple family of weights, and considering theIMSE as global loss criterion, we show some possible theoretical advantages.An empirical study illustrates the performance of the weighted estimatorsin finite samples.

Probabilistic maximal covering location-allocation models with constrained waiting time or queue length for congested systems

When dealing with the design of service networks, such as healthand EMS services, banking or distributed ticket selling services, thelocation of service centers has a strong influence on the congestion ateach of them, and consequently, on the quality of service. In this paper,several models are presented to consider service congestion. The firstmodel addresses the issue of the location of the least number of single--servercenters such that all the population is served within a standard distance,and nobody stands in line for a time longer than a given time--limit, or withmore than a predetermined number of other clients. We then formulateseveral maximal coverage models, with one or more servers per service center.A new heuristic is developed to solve the models and tested in a 30--nodesnetwork.