The effect of scale in daily precipitation hazard assessment

Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24 h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24 h precipitation by a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. Bayesian techniques are used to estimate the parameters. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimated GPD is mainly in the Fréchet DA, something incompatible with the common sense assumption of that precipitation is a bounded phenomenon. The bounded character of precipitation is then taken as a priori hypothesis. Consistency of this hypothesis with the data is checked in two cases: using the raw-data (in mm) and using log-transformed data. As expected, a Bayesian model checking clearly rejects the model in the raw-data case. However, log-transformed data seem to be consistent with the model. This fact may be due to the adequacy of the log-scale to represent positive measurements for which differences are better relative than absolute

Total synthesis of aeruginazole A

The first total synthesis of Aeruginazole A, prepared via a convergent strategy that involved both solid-phase peptide synthesis and solution phase chemistry and that enabled conservation of the stereochemistry of the intermediates, is reported.

Isolation, structural assignment and total synthesis of Barmumycin

Barmumycin was isolated from an extract of the marine actinomycete Streptomyces sp. BOSC-022A and found to be cytotoxic against various human tumor cell lines. Based on preliminary one- and two-dimensional 1H- and 13C-NMR spectra, the natural compound was initially assigned the structure of macrolactone-type compound 1, which was later prepared by two different routes. However, major spectroscopic differences between isolated barmumycin and 1 led to revision of the proposed structure as E-16. Based on synthesis of this new compound, and subsequent spectroscopic comparison of it to an authentic sample of barmumycin, the structure of the natural compound was indeed confirmed as that of E-16.

Kumar's algorithm for solving Toeplitz systems of equations over finite fields

Adaptació de l'algorisme de Kumar per resoldre sistemes d'equacions amb matrius de Toeplitz sobre els reals a cossos finits en un temps 0 (n log n).

Volcanoes of l-isogenies of elliptic curves over finite fields: the case l=3

This paper is devoted to the study of the volcanoes of l-isogenies of elliptic curves over a finite field, focusing on their height as well as on the location of curves across its different levels. The core of the paper lies on the relationship between the l-Sylow subgroup of an elliptic curve and the level of the volcano where it is placed. The particular case l = 3 is studied in detail, giving an algorithm to determine the volcano of 3-isogenies of a given elliptic curve. Experimental results are also provided.

Technical Note: Dissolved organic matter fluorescence a finite mixture approach to deconvolve excitation-emission matrices

The analysis of the shape of excitation-emission matrices (EEMs) is a relevant tool for exploring the origin, transport and fate of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in aquatic ecosystems. Within this context, the decomposition of EEMs is acquiring a notable relevance. A simple mathematical algorithm that automatically deconvolves individual EEMs is described, creating new possibilities for the comparison of DOM fluorescence properties and EEMs that are very different from each other. A mixture model approach is adopted to decompose complex surfaces into sub-peaks. The laplacian operator and the Nelder-Mead optimisation algorithm are implemented to individuate and automatically locate potential peaks in the EEM landscape. The EEMs of a simple artificial mixture of fluorophores and DOM samples collected in a Mediterranean river are used to describe the model application and to illustrate a strategy that optimises the search for the optimal output.

Thomas-Fermi theory for atomic nuclei revisited

The recently developed semiclassical variational Wigner-Kirkwood (VWK) approach is applied to finite nuclei using external potentials and self-consistent mean fields derived from Skyrme inter-actions and from relativistic mean field theory. VWK consist s of the Thomas-Fermi part plus a pure, perturbative h 2 correction. In external potentials, VWK passes through the average of the quantal values of the accumulated level density and total en energy as a function of the Fermi energy. However, there is a problem of overbinding when the energy per particle is displayed as a function of the particle number. The situation is analyzed comparing spherical and deformed harmonic oscillator potentials. In the self-consistent case, we show for Skyrme forces that VWK binding energies are very close to those obtained from extended Thomas-Fermi functionals of h 4 order, pointing to the rapid convergence of the VWK theory. This satisfying result, however, does not cure the overbinding problem, i.e., the semiclassical energies show more binding than they should. This feature is more pronounced in the case of Skyrme forces than with the relativistic mean field approach. However, even in the latter case the shell correction energy for e.g.208 Pb turns out to be only ∼ −6 MeV what is about a factor two or three off the generally accepted value. As an adhoc remedy, increasing the kinetic energy by 2.5%, leads to shell correction energies well acceptable throughout the periodic table. The general importance of the present studies for other finite Fermi systems, self-bound or in external potentials, is pointed out.

The Total Deviation Index estimated by Tolerance Intervals to evaluate the concordance of measurement devices

Background In an agreement assay, it is of interest to evaluate the degree of agreement between the different methods (devices, instruments or observers) used to measure the same characteristic. We propose in this study a technical simplification for inference about the total deviation index (TDI) estimate to assess agreement between two devices of normally-distributed measurements and describe its utility to evaluate inter- and intra-rater agreement if more than one reading per subject is available for each device. Methods We propose to estimate the TDI by constructing a probability interval of the difference in paired measurements between devices, and thereafter, we derive a tolerance interval (TI) procedure as a natural way to make inferences about probability limit estimates. We also describe how the proposed method can be used to compute bounds of the coverage probability. Results The approach is illustrated in a real case example where the agreement between two instruments, a handle mercury sphygmomanometer device and an OMRON 711 automatic device, is assessed in a sample of 384 subjects where measures of systolic blood pressure were taken twice by each device. A simulation study procedure is implemented to evaluate and compare the accuracy of the approach to two already established methods, showing that the TI approximation produces accurate empirical confidence levels which are reasonably close to the nominal confidence level. Conclusions The method proposed is straightforward since the TDI estimate is derived directly from a probability interval of a normally-distributed variable in its original scale, without further transformations. Thereafter, a natural way of making inferences about this estimate is to derive the appropriate TI. Constructions of TI based on normal populations are implemented in most standard statistical packages, thus making it simpler for any practitioner to implement our proposal to assess agreement.

Evidence for the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the total ozone column at northern low latitudes and midlatitudes during winter and summer seasons.

The strong influence of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the total ozone column (TOC) in the Northern Hemisphere has been reported in a number of previous studies. In this study we show that this influence is not restricted to the winter season but is also significant in summer. Especially interesting effects of the summer NAO (SNAO) on the TOC are observed over the eastern Mediterranean region, where a strongly positive SNAO index is related to the creation of a geopotential height-negative anomaly over Greece with maximum amplitude at 200 hPa. Another anomaly was observed west of the Iberian Peninsula with similar effects on the TOC. Analyzing 26 years of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) data from the equator to midlatitudes (60°) in the Northern Hemisphere, we demonstrate that the SNAO accounts for up to 30% of the TOC variability with a strong latitudinal and longitudinal dependence. Additionally, we obtain significant correlations between the NAO index and the thermal tropopause pressure and also with the geopotential heights at 200 and 500 hPa. Finally, some indirect connections between NAO and the TOC through teleconnections are also discussed.

El sabio total: Ibn Firnás

Nacido en Ronda o en su Serranía, pero establecido en la sede del poder, la Córdoba de los emires omeyas, Ibn Firnás (muerto en 887 d. C.) fue un claro precedente del sabio renacentista; en efecto, al modo de Leonardo da Vinci, destacó en el cultivo de las ciencias, de las técnicas y de las humanidades. Conocido por sus intentos de volar con unas alas que él mismo se construyó, representa un primer modelo de sabio andalusí, que, tras asimilar las influencias que venían de la Bagdad abbasí, desarrolla ya en al-Ándalus un saber que no es copia servil.

Ecuaciones de recurrencia estocásticas en el cálculo de la prima de reaseguro Finite Risk

RESUMEN: El objetivo de este trabajo es calcular el importe de la prima pura periódica que debe cobrar el reasegurador a la cedente en un reaseguro finite risk en ambiente financiero estocástico. El problema de la convolución de las diferentes variables aleatorias que intervienen en el cálculo de la prima lo hemos solucionado simulando, por Monte-Carlo, trayectorias de siniestralidad para el reasegurador aplicando posteriormente, en cada trayectoria simulada, los criterios de decisión financieros, esperanza, varianza y desviación. En los criterios de la varianza y de la desviación proponemos utilizar una ecuación de recurrencia estocástica para evitar el problema de la dependencia que existe entre los factores de capitalización estocásticos, obteniendo la prima de reaseguro en función del nivel de aversión al riesgo del reasegurador y de la volatilidad del tipo de interés. Palabras clave: Finite risk, ambiente estocástico, ecuación de recurrencia, simulación de Monte-Carlo, prima pura periódica.

Finite Element Analysis of Electrically Excited Quartz Tuning Fork Devices

Quartz Tuning Fork (QTF)-based Scanning Probe Microscopy (SPM) is an important field of research. A suitable model for the QTF is important to obtain quantitative measurements with these devices. Analytical models have the limitation of being based on the double cantilever configuration. In this paper, we present an electromechanical finite element model of the QTF electrically excited with two free prongs. The model goes beyond the state-of-the-art of numerical simulations currently found in the literature for this QTF configuration. We present the first numerical analysis of both the electrical and mechanical behavior of QTF devices. Experimental measurements obtained with 10 units of the same model of QTF validate the finite element model with a good agreement.

Total synthesis of aeruginazole A

The first total synthesis of Aeruginazole A, prepared via a convergent strategy that involved both solid-phase peptide synthesis and solution phase chemistry and that enabled conservation of the stereochemistry of the intermediates, is reported.

Isolation, structural assignment and total synthesis of Barmumycin

Barmumycin was isolated from an extract of the marine actinomycete Streptomyces sp. BOSC-022A and found to be cytotoxic against various human tumor cell lines. Based on preliminary one- and two-dimensional 1H- and 13C-NMR spectra, the natural compound was initially assigned the structure of macrolactone-type compound 1, which was later prepared by two different routes. However, major spectroscopic differences between isolated barmumycin and 1 led to revision of the proposed structure as E-16. Based on synthesis of this new compound, and subsequent spectroscopic comparison of it to an authentic sample of barmumycin, the structure of the natural compound was indeed confirmed as that of E-16.