Neogene antecedents of the modern human hand and its relation to bipedalism

El present projecte s'ha dut a terme a l'American Museum of Natural History (AMNH, New York) entre el 31 de Desembre de 2010 i el 30 de Desembre de 2012. L'objectiu del projecte era elucidar la història evolutiva de la mà humana: traçar els canvis evolutius en la seva forma i proporcions que van propiciar la seva estructura moderna que permet als humans manipular amb precisió. El treball realitzat ha inclòs recol•lecció de dades i anàlisis, redacció de resultats i formació en mètodes analítics específics. Durant aquest temps, l'autor a completat la seva de base de dades existent en mesures lineals de la mà a hominoides. També s'han agafat dades del peu; d'aquesta forma ara mateix es compta amb una base de dades amb més de 500 individus, amb més de 200 mesures per cada un. També s'han agafat dades en tres imensions utilitzant un làser escàner. S'han après tècniques de morfometria geomètrica 3D directament dels pioners al camp a l'AMNH. Com a resultat d'aquesta feina s'han produït 10 resums (publicats a congressos internacionals) i 9 manuscrits (molts d'ells ja publicats a revistes internacionals) amb resultats de gran rellevància: La mà humana posseeix unes proporcions relativament primitives, que són més similars a les proporciones que tenien els hominoides fòssils del Miocè que no pas a la dels grans antropomorfs actuals. Els darrers tenen unes mans allargades amb un polzes molt curts que reflexen l'ús de la mà com a eina de suspensió sota les branques. En canvi, els hominoides del Miocè tenien unes mans relativament curtes amb un polze llarg que feien servir per estabilitzar el seu pes quan caminaven per sobre de les branques. Una vegada els primers homínids van aparèixer al final del Miocè (fa uns 6 Ma) i van començar a fer servir el bipedisme com a mitjà més comú de locomoció, les seves mans van ser "alliberades" de les seves funcions locomotores. La selecció natural—ara només treballant en la manipulació—va convertir les proporcions ja existents de la mà d'aquests primats en l'òrgan manipulatori que representa la mà humana avui dia.

Transmit diversity vs. spatial multiplexing in modern MIMO systems

A contemporary perspective on the tradeoff between transmit antenna diversity andspatial multiplexing is provided. It is argued that, in the context of most modern wirelesssystems and for the operating points of interest, transmission techniques that utilizeall available spatial degrees of freedom for multiplexing outperform techniques that explicitlysacrifice spatial multiplexing for diversity. In the context of such systems, therefore,there essentially is no decision to be made between transmit antenna diversity and spatialmultiplexing in MIMO communication. Reaching this conclusion, however, requires thatthe channel and some key system features be adequately modeled and that suitable performancemetrics be adopted; failure to do so may bring about starkly different conclusions. Asa specific example, this contrast is illustrated using the 3GPP Long-Term Evolution systemdesign.

De-hyping transmit diversity in modern MIMO cellular systems

A contemporary perspective on the tradeoff between transmit antenna diversity and spatial multi-plexing is provided. It is argued that, in the context of modern cellular systems and for the operating points of interest, transmission techniques that utilize all available spatial degrees of freedom for multiplexingoutperform techniques that explicitly sacrifice spatialmultiplexing for diversity. Reaching this conclusion, however, requires that the channel and some key system features be adequately modeled; failure to do so may bring about starkly different conclusions. As a specific example, this contrast is illustrated using the 3GPP Long-Term Evolution system design.

The Big Band Theory : català col·loquial i humor científic. Proposta de traducció del capítol pilot

Aquest treball elabora una proposta de traducció per al doblatge del capítol pilot de The Big Bang Theory, que combina llenguatge col•loquial i llenguatge científic.L’objectiu és doble: elaborar un llenguatge col•loquial creïble però a la vegada genuí i emprar els equivalents catalans adequats per als termes científics originals.

Capital, Wages, and Growth: Theory and Evidence

Returns to scale to capital and the strength of capital externalities play a key role for the empirical predictions and policy implications of different growth theories. We show that both can be identified with individual wage data and implement our approach at the city-level using US Census data on individuals in 173 cities for 1970, 1980, and 1990. Estimation takes into account fixed effects, endogeneity of capital accumulation, and measurement error. We find no evidence for human or physical capital externalities and decreasing aggregate returns to capital. Returns to scale to physical and human capital are around 80 percent. We also find strong complementarities between human capital and labor and substantial total employment externalities.

Measurement with Some Theory: a New Approach to Evaluate Business Cycle Models

We propose a method to evaluate cyclical models which does not require knowledge of the DGP and the exact empirical specification of the aggregate decision rules. We derive robust restrictions in a class of models; use some to identify structural shocks and others to evaluate the model or contrast sub-models. The approach has good size and excellent power properties, even in small samples. We show how to examine the validity of a class of models, sort out the relevance of certain frictions, evaluate the importance of an added feature, and indirectly estimate structural parameters.

Social Security in Theory and Practice (II): Efficiency Theories, Narrative Theories, and Implications for Reform

166 countries have some kind of public old age pension. What economic forces create and sustain old age Social Security as a public program? Mulligan and Sala-i-Martin (1999b) document several of the internationally and historically common features of social security programs, and explore "political" theories of Social Security. This paper discusses the "efficiency theories", which view creation of the SS program as a full of partial solution to some market failure. Efficiency explanations of social security include the "SS as welfare for the elderly" the "retirement increases productivity to optimally manage human capital externalities", "optimal retirement insurance", the "prodigal father problem", the "misguided Keynesian", the "optimal longevity insurance", the "government economizing transaction costs", and the "return on human capital investment". We also analyze four "narrative" theories of social security: the "chain letter theory", the "lump of labor theory", the "monopoly capitalism theory", and the "Sub-but-Nearly-Optimal policy response to private pensions theory". The political and efficiency explanations are compared with the international and historical facts and used to derive implications for replacing the typical pay-as-you-go system with a forced savings plan. Most of the explanations suggest that forced savings does not increase welfare, and may decrease it.

Salience theory of choice under risk

We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined) salient payoffs. This leads the decision maker to a context-dependent representation of lotteries in which true probabilities are replaced by decision weights distorted in favor of salient payoffs. By endogenizing decision weights as a function of payoffs, our model provides a novel and unified account of many empirical phenomena, including frequent risk-seeking behavior, invariance failures such as the Allais paradox, and preference reversals. It also yields new predictions, including some that distinguish it from Prospect Theory, which we test.

Financial Crises and International Portfolio Dynamics

This paper analyzes the behavior of international capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents, especially during financial crises. We show that gross capital flows by foreigners and domestic agents are very large and volatile, especially relative to net capital flows. This is because when foreigners invest in a country domestic agents tend to invest abroad and vice versa. Gross capital flows are also pro-cyclical. During expansions, foreigners tend to bring in more capital and domestic agents tend to invest more abroad. During crises, there is retrenchment, i.e. a reduction in capital inflows by foreigners and an increase in capital inflows by domestic agents. This is especially true during severe crises and during systemic crises. The evidence can shed light on the nature of shocks driving international capital flows. It seems to favor shocks that affect foreigners and domestic agents asymmetrically -e.g. sovereign risk and asymmetric information- over productivity shocks.

The Three Horsemen of Growth: Plague, War and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe

How did Europe overtake China? We construct a simple Malthusian model with two sectors, and use it to explain how European per capita incomes and urbanization rates could surge ahead of Chinese ones. That living standards could exceed subsistence levels at all in a Malthusian setting should be surprising. Rising fertility and falling mortality ought to have reversed any gains. We show that productivity growth in Europe can only explain a small fraction of rising living standards. Population dynamics - changes of the birth and death schedules - were far more important drivers of the longrun Malthusian equilibrium. The Black Death raised wages substantially, creating important knock-on effects. Because of Engel's Law, demand for urban products increased, raising urban wages and attracting migrants from rural areas. European cities were unhealthy, especially compared to Far Eastern ones. Urbanization pushed up aggregate death rates. This effect was reinforced by more frequent wars (fed by city wealth) and disease spread by trade. Thus, higher wages themselves reduced population pressure. Without technological change, our model can account for the sharp rise in European urbanization as well as permanently higher per capita incomes. We complement our calibration exercise with a detailed analysis of intra-European growth in the early modern period. Using a panel of European states in the period 1300-1700, we show that war frequency can explain a good share of the divergent fortunes within Europe.

A theory of optimal random crackdowns

An incentives based theory of policing is developed which can explain the phenomenon of random “crackdowns,” i.e., intermittent periods of high interdiction/surveillance. For a variety of police objective functions, random crackdowns can be part of the optimal monitoring strategy. We demonstrate support for implications of the crackdown theory using traffic data gathered by the Belgian Police Department and use the model to estimate the deterrence effectof additional resources spent on speeding interdiction.

Equilibrium asset prices and savings of heterogeneous agents in the presence of incomplete markets and portfolio constraints

We study the quantitative properties of a dynamic general equilibrium model in which agents face both idiosyncratic and aggregate income risk, state-dependent borrowing constraints that bind in some but not all periods and markets are incomplete. Optimal individual consumption-savings plans and equilibrium asset prices are computed under various assumptions about income uncertainty. Then we investigate whether our general equilibrium model with incomplete markets replicates two empirical observations: the high correlation between individual consumption and individual income, and the equity premium puzzle. We find that, when the driving processes are calibrated according to the data from wage income in different sectors of the US economy, the results move in the direction of explaining these observations, but the model falls short of explaining the observed correlations quantitatively. If the incomes of agents are assumed independent of each other, the observations can be explained quantitatively.

Portfolio choice and the effects of liquidity

This paper shows how to introduce liquidity into the well known mean-variance framework of portfolio selection. Either by estimating mean-variance liquidity constrained frontiers or directly estimating optimal portfolios for alternative levels of risk aversion and preference for liquidity, we obtain strong effects of liquidity on optimal portfolio selection. In particular, portfolio performance, measured by the Sharpe ratio relative to the tangency portfolio, varies significantly with liquidity. Moreover, although mean-variance performance becomes clearly worse, the levels of liquidity onoptimal portfolios obtained when there is a positive preference for liquidity are much lower than on those optimal portfolios where investors show no sign of preference for liquidity.

Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory

We estimate a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function for thepostwar United States economy, before and after Volcker's appointmentas Fed Chairman in 1979. Our results point to substantial differencesin the estimated rule across periods. In particular, interest ratepolicy in the Volcker-Greenspan period appears to have been much moresensitive to changes in expected inflation than in the pre-Volckerperiod. We then compare some of the implications of the estimated rulesfor the equilibrium properties of inflation and output, using a simplemacroeconomic model, and show that the Volcker-Greenspan rule is stabilizing.

Toward a theory of labor market institutions

Standard economic analysis holds that labor market rigidities are harmfulfor job creation and typically increase unemployment. But many orthodoxreforms of the labor market have proved difficult to implement because ofpolitical opposition. For these reasons it is important to explain why weobserve such regulations. In this paper I outline a theory of how they may arise and why they fit together. This theory is fully developed in aforthcoming book (Saint-Paul (2000)), to which the reader is referred forfurther details.