Exchange rate predictability

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: "Does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables?". It is well known thatexchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, andthat a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model (theMeese and Rogoff puzzle). However, the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals/methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle. This article providesa critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustratesthe new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up-to-date, thorough empirical analysis. Overall, our analysis of the literature and thedata suggests that the answer to the question: "Are exchange rates predictable?" is,"It depends" -on the choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, andforecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent when one or more of thefollowing hold: the predictors are Taylor rule or net foreign assets, the model is linear, and a small number of parameters are estimated. The toughest benchmark is therandom walk without drift.

Understanding the gains from wage flexibility: The exchange rate connection

We study the gains from increased wage flexibility and their dependence on exchange rate policy, using a small open economy model with staggered price andwage setting. Two results stand out: (i) the impact of wage adjustments on employment is smaller the more the central bank seeks to stabilize the exchange rate,and (ii) an increase in wage flexibility often reduces welfare, and more likely so ineconomies under an exchange rate peg or an exchange rate-focused monetary policy.Our findings call into question the common view that wage flexibility is particularlydesirable in a currency union.

Constraints on effective field theory parameters for the Lambda N -> NN transition

The relation between the low-energy constants appearing in the effective field theory description of the Lambda N -> NN transition potential and the parameters of the one-meson-exchange model previously developed is obtained. We extract the relative importance of the different exchange mechanisms included in the meson picture by means of a comparison to the corresponding operational structures appearing in the effective approach. The ability of this procedure to obtain the weak baryon-baryon-meson couplings for a possible scalar exchange is also discussed.

Constraints on effective field theory parameters for the Lambda N -> NN transition

The relation between the low-energy constants appearing in the effective field theory description of the Lambda N -> NN transition potential and the parameters of the one-meson-exchange model previously developed is obtained. We extract the relative importance of the different exchange mechanisms included in the meson picture by means of a comparison to the corresponding operational structures appearing in the effective approach. The ability of this procedure to obtain the weak baryon-baryon-meson couplings for a possible scalar exchange is also discussed.

A simple halide-to-anion exchange method for heteroaromatic salts and ionic liquids

A broad and simple method permitted halide ions in quaternary heteroaromatic and ammonium salts to be exchanged for a variety of anions using an anion exchange resin (A− form) in non-aqueous media. The anion loading of the AER (OH− form) was examined using two different anion sources, acids or ammonium salts, and changing the polarity of the solvents. The AER (A− form) method in organic solvents was then applied to several quaternary heteroaromatic salts and ILs, and the anion exchange proceeded in excellent to quantitative yields, concomitantly removing halide impurities. Relying on the hydrophobicity of the targeted ion pair for the counteranion swap, organic solvents with variable polarity were used, such as CH3OH, CH3CN and the dipolar nonhydroxylic solvent mixture CH3CN:CH2Cl2 (3:7) and the anion exchange was equally successful with both lipophilic cations and anions.

Conditional equilibrium constants in multicomponent heterogeneous adsorption: The conditional affinity spectrum

The concept of conditional stability constant is extended to the competitive binding of small molecules to heterogeneous surfaces or macromolecules via the introduction of the conditional affinity spectrum (CAS). The CAS describes the distribution of effective binding energies experienced by one complexing agent at a fixed concentration of the rest. We show that, when the multicomponent system can be described in terms of an underlying affinity spectrum [integral equation (IE) approach], the system can always be characterized by means of a CAS. The thermodynamic properties of the CAS and its dependence on the concentration of the rest of components are discussed. In the context of metal/proton competition, analytical expressions for the mean (conditional average affinity) and the variance (conditional heterogeneity) of the CAS as functions of pH are reported and their physical interpretation discussed. Furthermore, we show that the dependence of the CAS variance on pH allows for the analytical determination of the correlation coefficient between the binding energies of the metal and the proton. Nonideal competitive adsorption isotherm and Frumkin isotherms are used to illustrate the results of this work. Finally, the possibility of using CAS when the IE approach does not apply (for instance, when multidentate binding is present) is explored. © 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Adding similarity-based reasoning capabilities to a Horn fragment of possibilistic logic with fuzzy constants

PLFC is a first-order possibilistic logic dealing with fuzzy constants and fuzzily restricted quantifiers. The refutation proof method in PLFC is mainly based on a generalized resolution rule which allows an implicit graded unification among fuzzy constants. However, unification for precise object constants is classical. In order to use PLFC for similarity-based reasoning, in this paper we extend a Horn-rule sublogic of PLFC with similarity-based unification of object constants. The Horn-rule sublogic of PLFC we consider deals only with disjunctive fuzzy constants and it is equipped with a simple and efficient version of PLFC proof method. At the semantic level, it is extended by equipping each sort with a fuzzy similarity relation, and at the syntactic level, by fuzzily “enlarging” each non-fuzzy object constant in the antecedent of a Horn-rule by means of a fuzzy similarity relation.

Preparation of alpha-labeled aldehydes by base-catalyzed exchange reactions

A simple, efficient protocol for the preparation of α-labeled aldehydes based on H/D exchange catalyzed by 4-(N,N-dimethylamino)pyridine or Et3N is described. High chemical yields and ratios of isotope incorporation were obtained even when small amounts (1 mmol) of aldehyde were used.

Preparation of alpha-labeled aldehydes by base-catalyzed exchange reactions

A simple, efficient protocol for the preparation of α-labeled aldehydes based on H/D exchange catalyzed by 4-(N,N-dimethylamino)pyridine or Et3N is described. High chemical yields and ratios of isotope incorporation were obtained even when small amounts (1 mmol) of aldehyde were used.

A simple halide-to-anion exchange method for heteroaromatic salts and ionic liquids

A broad and simple method permitted halide ions in quaternary heteroaromatic and ammonium salts to be exchanged for a variety of anions using an anion exchange resin (A− form) in non-aqueous media. The anion loading of the AER (OH− form) was examined using two different anion sources, acids or ammonium salts, and changing the polarity of the solvents. The AER (A− form) method in organic solvents was then applied to several quaternary heteroaromatic salts and ILs, and the anion exchange proceeded in excellent to quantitative yields, concomitantly removing halide impurities. Relying on the hydrophobicity of the targeted ion pair for the counteranion swap, organic solvents with variable polarity were used, such as CH3OH, CH3CN and the dipolar nonhydroxylic solvent mixture CH3CN:CH2Cl2 (3:7) and the anion exchange was equally successful with both lipophilic cations and anions.

Azolium-based systems: application of an anion exchange resin (A- form) method and 1H NMR analysis of the charged-assisted (CH)+·anion hydrogen bonds

The counteranion exchange of quaternary 1,2,3-triazolium salts was examined using a simple method that permitted halide ions to be swap for a variety of anions using an anion exchange resin (A¯ form). The method was applied to 1,2,3-triazolium-based ionic liquids and the iodideto- anion exchange proceeded in excellent to quantitative yields, concomitantly removing halide impurities. Additionally, an anion exchange resin (N3¯ form) was used to obtain the benzyl azide from benzyl halide under mild reaction. Likewise, following a similar protocol, bis(azidomethyl)arenes were also synthesized in excellent yields. The results of a proton NMR spectroscopic study of simple azolium-based ion pairs are discussed, with attention focused on the significance of the charged-assisted (CH)+···anion hydrogen bonds of simple azolium systems such as 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium and 1-benzyl-3-methyl-1,2,3-triazolium salts.

Azolium-based systems: application of an anion exchange resin (A- form) method and 1H NMR analysis of the charged-assisted (CH)+·anion hydrogen bonds

The counteranion exchange of quaternary 1,2,3-triazolium salts was examined using a simple method that permitted halide ions to be swap for a variety of anions using an anion exchange resin (A¯ form). The method was applied to 1,2,3-triazolium-based ionic liquids and the iodideto- anion exchange proceeded in excellent to quantitative yields, concomitantly removing halide impurities. Additionally, an anion exchange resin (N3¯ form) was used to obtain the benzyl azide from benzyl halide under mild reaction. Likewise, following a similar protocol, bis(azidomethyl)arenes were also synthesized in excellent yields. The results of a proton NMR spectroscopic study of simple azolium-based ion pairs are discussed, with attention focused on the significance of the charged-assisted (CH)+···anion hydrogen bonds of simple azolium systems such as 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium and 1-benzyl-3-methyl-1,2,3-triazolium salts.

Azolium-based systems: application of an anion exchange resin (A- form) method and 1H NMR analysis of the charged-assisted (CH)+·anion hydrogen bonds

The counteranion exchange of quaternary 1,2,3-triazolium salts was examined using a simple method that permitted halide ions to be swap for a variety of anions using an anion exchange resin (A¯ form). The method was applied to 1,2,3-triazolium-based ionic liquids and the iodideto- anion exchange proceeded in excellent to quantitative yields, concomitantly removing halide impurities. Additionally, an anion exchange resin (N3¯ form) was used to obtain the benzyl azide from benzyl halide under mild reaction. Likewise, following a similar protocol, bis(azidomethyl)arenes were also synthesized in excellent yields. The results of a proton NMR spectroscopic study of simple azolium-based ion pairs are discussed, with attention focused on the significance of the charged-assisted (CH)+···anion hydrogen bonds of simple azolium systems such as 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium and 1-benzyl-3-methyl-1,2,3-triazolium salts.

Another Look at the Null of Stationary Real Exchange Rates: Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence

This paper re-examines the null of stationary of real exchange rate for a panel of seventeen OECD developed countries during the post-Bretton Woods era. Our analysis simultaneously considers both the presence of cross-section dependence and multiple structural breaks that have not received much attention in previous panel methods of long-run PPP. Empirical results indicate that there is little evidence in favor of PPP hypothesis when the analysis does not account for structural breaks. This conclusion is reversed when structural breaks are considered in computation of the panel statistics. We also compute point estimates of half-life separately for idiosyncratic and common factor components and find that it is always below one year.