Multi-sample analysis of moment-structures: Asymptotic validity of inferences based on second-order moments

In moment structure analysis with nonnormal data, asymptotic valid inferences require the computation of a consistent (under general distributional assumptions) estimate of the matrix $\Gamma$ of asymptotic variances of sample second--order moments. Such a consistent estimate involves the fourth--order sample moments of the data. In practice, the use of fourth--order moments leads to computational burden and lack of robustness against small samples. In this paper we show that, under certain assumptions, correct asymptotic inferences can be attained when $\Gamma$ is replaced by a matrix $\Omega$ that involves only the second--order moments of the data. The present paper extends to the context of multi--sample analysis of second--order moment structures, results derived in the context of (simple--sample) covariance structure analysis (Satorra and Bentler, 1990). The results apply to a variety of estimation methods and general type of statistics. An example involving a test of equality of means under covariance restrictions illustrates theoretical aspects of the paper.

Judges' cognition and market order

We argue that during the crystallization of common and civil law in the 19th century, the optimal degree of discretion in judicial rulemaking, albeit influenced by the comparative advantages of both legislative and judicial rulemaking, was mainly determined by the anti-market biases of the judiciary. The different degrees of judicial discretion adopted in both legal traditions were thus optimally adapted to different circumstances, mainly rooted in the unique, market-friendly, evolutionary transition enjoyed by English common law as opposed to the revolutionary environment of the civil law. On the Continent, constraining judicial discretion was essential for enforcing freedom of contract and establishing a market economy. The ongoing debasement of pro-market fundamentals in both branches of the Western legal system is explained from this perspective as a consequence of increased perceptions of exogenous risks and changes in the political system, which favored the adoption of sharing solutions and removed the cognitive advantage of parliaments and political leaders.

Restless bandits, partial conservation laws and indexability

We show that if performance measures in a stochastic scheduling problem satisfy a set of so-called partial conservation laws (PCL), which extend previously studied generalized conservation laws (GCL), then the problem is solved optimally by a priority-index policy for an appropriate range of linear performance objectives, where the optimal indices are computed by a one-pass adaptive-greedy algorithm, based on Klimov's. We further apply this framework to investigate the indexability property of restless bandits introduced by Whittle, obtaining the following results: (1) we identify a class of restless bandits (PCL-indexable) which are indexable; membership in this class is tested through a single run of the adaptive-greedy algorithm, which also computes the Whittle indices when the test is positive; this provides a tractable sufficient condition for indexability; (2) we further indentify the class of GCL-indexable bandits, which includes classical bandits, having the property that they are indexable under any linear reward objective. The analysis is based on the so-called achievable region method, as the results follow fromnew linear programming formulations for the problems investigated.

Psychological pressure in competitive environments: Evidence from a randomized natural experiment

Much like cognitive abilities, emotional skills can have major effects on performance and economic outcomes. This paper studies the behavior of professionalsubjects involved in a dynamic competition in their own natural environment. Thesetting is a penalty shoot-out in soccer where two teams compete in a tournamentframework taking turns in a sequence of five penalty kicks each. As the kicking order is determined by the random outcome of a coin flip, the treatment and control groups are determined via explicit randomization. Therefore, absent any psychological effects, both teams should have the same probability of winning regardless of the kicking order. Yet, we find a systematic first-kicker advantage. Using data on 2,731 penalty kicks from 262 shoot-outs for a three decade period, we find that teams kicking first win the penalty shoot-out 60.5% of the time. A dynamic panel data analysis shows that the psychological mechanism underlying this result arises from the asymmetry in the partial score. As most kicks are scored, kicking first typically means having the opportunity to lead in the partial score, whereas kicking second typically means lagging in the score and having the opportunity to, at most, get even. Having a worse prospect than the opponent hinders subjects' performance.Further, we also find that professionals are self-aware of their own psychological effects. When a recent change in regulations gives winners of the coin toss the chance to choose the kicking order, they rationally react to it by systematically choosing to kick first. A survey of professional players reveals that when asked to explain why they prefer to kick first, they precisely identify the psychological mechanism for which we find empirical support in the data: they want to lead in the score inorder to put pressure on the opponent.

Dynamic higher order expectations

In models where privately informed agents interact, agents may need to formhigher order expectations, i.e. expectations of other agents' expectations. This paper develops a tractable framework for solving and analyzing linear dynamic rational expectationsmodels in which privately informed agents form higher order expectations. The frameworkis used to demonstrate that the well-known problem of the infinite regress of expectationsidentified by Townsend (1983) can be approximated to an arbitrary accuracy with a finitedimensional representation under quite general conditions. The paper is constructive andpresents a fixed point algorithm for finding an accurate solution and provides weak conditions that ensure that a fixed point exists. To help intuition, Singleton's (1987) asset pricingmodel with disparately informed traders is used as a vehicle for the paper.

A Variant of Higher-Order Anti-Unification

We present a rule-based Huet’s style anti-unification algorithm for simply-typed lambda-terms in ɳ long β normal form, which computes a least general higher-order pattern generalization. For a pair of arbitrary terms of the same type, such a generalization always exists and is unique modulo α equivalence and variable renaming. The algorithm computes it in cubic time within linear space. It has been implemented and the code is freely available

Posada en funcionament d'una oficina de tramitació ràpida (OTRA) de la Direcció General d'Indústria, del Govern de les Illes Balears

La Direcció General d’Indústria té com a principal finalitat el control de les instal•lacions i de diferents activitats de l’àmbit industrial; exerceix aquesta funció mitjançant la tramitació de documentacions tècniques i la inspecció. Com tota Administració Pública, es troba en un entorn molt dinàmic, on només les empreses més competitives poden subsistir i els ciutadans tenen noves necessitats molt diferents de les de fa un temps. Ambdós, empreses i ciutadans, exigeixen serveis de qualitat a un sector públic que no té altra alternativa que caminar en la mateixa direcció. L’objectiu d’aquest treball és planificar una sèrie d’accions estratègiques que permetran la millora dels serveis oferts a fi de complir amb les expectatives de la ciutadania. S’ha realitzat una anàlisi interna i de l’entorn de l’organització, el resultat de la qual ha estat la detecció d’una sèrie de punts de millora. A continuació s’ha definit una pla operatiu de qualitat, emmarcat dins del segon Pla Estratègic de Qualitat del Govern de les Illes Balears, amb tres propostes d’actuació: la separació de funcions, la tramitació ràpida d’expedients i el pla de formació. Les propostes esmentades constitueixen les bases d’una nova unitat orgànica (Oficina de Tramitació Ràpida), el model organitzatiu de la qual queda definit en els diferents apartats del treball. Igualment, s’hi descriu el procés de posada en funcionament dels distints procediments que es vagin adaptant al nou sistema i la planificació dels treballs a dur a terme, que seguiran el cicle de la qualitat de Deming, és a dir, planificar, fer, verificar i actuar.

High order hydrodynamical equations

Hydrodynamical equations act as a link between the local observed magnitudes of galactic motion and the general ones accounting for the behaviour of the Galaxy as a whole. Constraints are set usually in order to use them even in the lower order hierarchy. The authors present in this paper the complete expressions up to their fourth order. These equations will be used in the next future in their general form taking into account both the expected increase of kinematic data that the astrometric mission Hipparcos will provide, and some recent results indicating the possibility to obtain estimates for the momenta gradients.

Linear least squares estimation of the first order moving average parameter

We propose an iterative procedure to minimize the sum of squares function which avoids the nonlinear nature of estimating the first order moving average parameter and provides a closed form of the estimator. The asymptotic properties of the method are discussed and the consistency of the linear least squares estimator is proved for the invertible case. We perform various Monte Carlo experiments in order to compare the sample properties of the linear least squares estimator with its nonlinear counterpart for the conditional and unconditional cases. Some examples are also discussed

Diffusionless first-order phase transitions in systems with frozen configurational degrees of freedom

We consider systems that can be described in terms of two kinds of degree of freedom. The corresponding ordering modes may, under certain conditions, be coupled to each other. We may thus assume that the primary ordering mode gives rise to a diffusionless first-order phase transition. The change of its thermodynamic properties as a function of the secondary-ordering-mode state is then analyzed. Two specific examples are discussed. First, we study a three-state Potts model in a binary system. Using mean-field techniques, we obtain the phase diagram and different properties of the system as a function of the distribution of atoms on the different lattice sites. In the second case, the properties of a displacive structural phase transition of martensitic type in a binary alloy are studied as a function of atomic order. Because of the directional character of the martensitic-transition mechanism, we find only a very weak dependence of the entropy on atomic order. Experimental results are found to be in quite good agreement with theoretical predictions.

Numerical algorithm for Ginzburg-Landau equations with multiplicative noise: Application to domain growth

We consider stochastic partial differential equations with multiplicative noise. We derive an algorithm for the computer simulation of these equations. The algorithm is applied to study domain growth of a model with a conserved order parameter. The numerical results corroborate previous analytical predictions obtained by linear analysis.