Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.

Inequalities for a new data-based method for selecting nonparametric density estimates

We continue the development of a method for the selection of a bandwidth or a number of design parameters in density estimation. We provideexplicit non-asymptotic density-free inequalities that relate the $L_1$ error of the selected estimate with that of the best possible estimate,and study in particular the connection between the richness of the classof density estimates and the performance bound. For example, our methodallows one to pick the bandwidth and kernel order in the kernel estimatesimultaneously and still assure that for {\it all densities}, the $L_1$error of the corresponding kernel estimate is not larger than aboutthree times the error of the estimate with the optimal smoothing factor and kernel plus a constant times $\sqrt{\log n/n}$, where $n$ is the sample size, and the constant only depends on the complexity of the family of kernels used in the estimate. Further applications include multivariate kernel estimates, transformed kernel estimates, and variablekernel estimates.

Synovial fluid examination for the diagnosis of synovial amyloidosis in patients with chronic renal failure undergoing haemodialysis

The diagnosis of synovial amyloidosis is based upon synovial biopsy. Synovial fluid (SF) in seven patients with amyloid arthropathy associated with chronic renal failure undergoing haemodialysis were studied. The SF and synovial samples of 10 consecutive patients with seronegative mono- or oligoarthritis served as controls. Six of the seven patients with amyloid positive synovial biopsy specimens showed amyloid in their SF. No amyloid was found in the synovial tissue or fluid of the 10 patients in the control group, the sensitivity being 87.7%. The finding of amyloid in SF was highly reproducible, showing its presence in the same joint on several occasions. The deposits were Congophilia resistant to potassium permanganate pretreatment, and the immunohistochemical analysis proved that they contained beta 2 microglobulin. The high sensitivity and good reproducibility of the method shows that the finding of amyloid in SF is sufficient for the diagnosis of synovial amyloidosis. It is possible to perform immunohis

Changes in the enterocyte cytoskeleton in newborn rats exposed to ethanol in utero

BACKGROUND: Cytoskeletal changes after longterm exposure to ethanol have been described in a number of cell types in adult rat and humans. These changes can play a key part in the impairment of nutrient assimilation and postnatal growth retardation after prenatal damage of the intestinal epithelium produced by ethanol intake. AIMS: To determine, in the newborn rat, which cytoskeletal proteins are affected by longterm ethanol exposure in utero and to what extent. ANIMALS: The offspring of two experimental groups of female Wistar rats: ethanol treated group receiving up to 25% (w/v) of ethanol in the drinking fluid and control group receiving water as drinking fluid. METHODS: Single and double electron microscopy immunolocalisation and label density estimation of cytoskeletal proteins on sections of proximal small intestine incubated with monoclonal antibodies against actin, alpha-tubulin, cytokeratin (polypeptides 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, and 18), and with a polyclonal antibody anti-beta 1,4-galactosyl transferase as trans golgi (TG) or trans golgi network (TGN) marker, or both. SDS-PAGE technique was also performed on cytoskeletal enriched fractions from small intestine. Western blotting analysis was carried out by incubation with the same antibodies used for immunolocalisation. RESULTS: Intestinal epithelium of newborn rats from the ethanol treated group showed an overexpression of cytoskeletal polypeptides ranging from 39 to 54 kDa, affecting actin and some cytokeratins, but not tubulin. Furthermore, a cytokeratin related polypeptide of 28-29 kDa was identified together with an increase in free ubiquitin in the same group. It was noteworthy that actin and cytokeratin were abnormally located in the TG or the TGN, or both. CONCLUSIONS: Longterm exposure to ethanol in utero causes severe dysfunction in the cytoskeleton of the developing intestinal epithelium. Actin and cytokeratins, which are involved in cytoskeleton anchoring to plasma membrane and cell adhesion, are particularly affected, showing overexpression, impaired proteolysis, and mislocalisation.

Changes in the enterocyte cytoskeleton in newborn rats exposed to ethanol in utero

BACKGROUND: Cytoskeletal changes after longterm exposure to ethanol have been described in a number of cell types in adult rat and humans. These changes can play a key part in the impairment of nutrient assimilation and postnatal growth retardation after prenatal damage of the intestinal epithelium produced by ethanol intake. AIMS: To determine, in the newborn rat, which cytoskeletal proteins are affected by longterm ethanol exposure in utero and to what extent. ANIMALS: The offspring of two experimental groups of female Wistar rats: ethanol treated group receiving up to 25% (w/v) of ethanol in the drinking fluid and control group receiving water as drinking fluid. METHODS: Single and double electron microscopy immunolocalisation and label density estimation of cytoskeletal proteins on sections of proximal small intestine incubated with monoclonal antibodies against actin, alpha-tubulin, cytokeratin (polypeptides 1, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 11, and 18), and with a polyclonal antibody anti-beta 1,4-galactosyl transferase as trans golgi (TG) or trans golgi network (TGN) marker, or both. SDS-PAGE technique was also performed on cytoskeletal enriched fractions from small intestine. Western blotting analysis was carried out by incubation with the same antibodies used for immunolocalisation. RESULTS: Intestinal epithelium of newborn rats from the ethanol treated group showed an overexpression of cytoskeletal polypeptides ranging from 39 to 54 kDa, affecting actin and some cytokeratins, but not tubulin. Furthermore, a cytokeratin related polypeptide of 28-29 kDa was identified together with an increase in free ubiquitin in the same group. It was noteworthy that actin and cytokeratin were abnormally located in the TG or the TGN, or both. CONCLUSIONS: Longterm exposure to ethanol in utero causes severe dysfunction in the cytoskeleton of the developing intestinal epithelium. Actin and cytokeratins, which are involved in cytoskeleton anchoring to plasma membrane and cell adhesion, are particularly affected, showing overexpression, impaired proteolysis, and mislocalisation.

Role of fluid mixing in deep dissolution of carbonates

The presence of cavities filled with new minerals in carbonate rocks is a common feature in oil reservoirs and lead-zinc deposits. Since groundwater equilibrates rapidly with carbonates, the presence of dissolution cavities in deep carbonate host rocks is a paradox. Two alternative geochemical processes have been proposed to dissolve carbonates at depth: hydrogen sulfide oxidation to sulfuric acid, and metal sulfide precipitation. With the aid of geochemical modeling we show that mixing two warm solutions saturated with carbonate results in a new solution that dissolves limestone. Variations in the proportion of the end-member fluids can also form a supersaturated mixture and fill the cavity with a new generation of carbonate. Mixing is in general more effective in dissolving carbonates than the aforementioned processes. Moreover, mixing is consistent with the wide set of textures and mineral proportions observed in cavity infillings.

Transformation kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions

[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.

Transformation kernel density estimation of actuarial loss functions

[cat] Es presenta un estimador nucli transformat que és adequat per a distribucions de cua pesada. Utilitzant una transformació basada en la distribució de probabilitat Beta l’elecció del paràmetre de finestra és molt directa. Es presenta una aplicació a dades d’assegurances i es mostra com calcular el Valor en Risc.

Barrier for the reaction X20+ + X20+ -> X402+ in alkali-metal clusters related to electron density at the bond midpoint of the supermolecule (X20+)2

Using the extended Thomas-Fermi version of density-functional theory (DFT), calculations are presented for the barrier for the reaction Na20++Na20+¿Na402+. The deviation from the simple Coulomb barrier is shown to be proportional to the electron density at the bond midpoint of the supermolecule (Na20+)2. An extension of conventional quantum-chemical studies of homonuclear diatomic molecular ions is then effected to apply to the supermolecular ions of the alkali metals. This then allows the Na results to be utilized to make semiquantitative predictions of position and height of the maximum of the fusion barrier for other alkali clusters. These predictions are confirmed by means of similar DFT calculations for the K clusters.

Current-density-functional approach to large quantum dots in intense magnetic fields

Within current-density-functional theory, we have studied a quantum dot made of 210 electrons confined in a disk geometry. The ground state of this large dot exhibits some features as a function of the magnetic field (Beta) that can be attributed in a clear way to the formation of compressible and incompressible states of the system. The orbital and spin angular momenta, the total energy, ionization and electron chemical potentials of the ground state, as well as the frequencies of far-infrared edge modes are calculated as a function of Beta, and compared with available experimental and theoretical results.