Heterogeneity and event dependence in the analysis of sickness absence

Sickness absence (SA) is an important social, economic and public health issue. Identifying and understanding the determinants, whether biological, regulatory or, health services-related, of variability in SA duration is essential for better management of SA. The conditional frailty model (CFM) is useful when repeated SA events occur within the same individual, as it allows simultaneous analysis of event dependence and heterogeneity due to unknown, unmeasured, or unmeasurable factors. However, its use may encounter computational limitations when applied to very large data sets, as may frequently occur in the analysis of SA duration. To overcome the computational issue, we propose a Poisson-based conditional frailty model (CFPM) for repeated SA events that accounts for both event dependence and heterogeneity. To demonstrate the usefulness of the model proposed in the SA duration context, we used data from all non-work-related SA episodes that occurred in Catalonia (Spain) in 2007, initiated by either a diagnosis of neoplasm or mental and behavioral disorders. As expected, the CFPM results were very similar to those of the CFM for both diagnosis groups. The CPU time for the CFPM was substantially shorter than the CFM. The CFPM is an suitable alternative to the CFM in survival analysis with recurrent events,especially with large databases.

Saving lives: Evidence from a conditional food supplementation program

Many governments in developing countries implement programs that aim to address nutrionalfailures in early childhood, yet evidence on the effectiveness of these interventions is scant. Thispaper evaluates the impact of a conditional food supplementation program on child mortality inEcuador. The Programa de Alimentaci?n y Nutrici?n Nacional (PANN) 2000 was implementedby regular staff at local public health posts and consisted of offering a free micronutrient-fortifiedfood, Mi Papilla, for children aged 6 to 24 months in exchange for routine health check-ups forthe children. Our regression discontinuity design exploits the fact that at its inception, the PANN2000 was running for about 8 months only in the poorest communities (parroquias) of certainprovinces. Our main result is that the presence of the program reduced child mortality in cohortswith 8 months of differential exposure from a level of about 2.5 percent by 1 to 1.5 percentagepoints.

Prediction of Childhood Asthma Using Conditional Probability and Discrete Event Simulation

Abstract: Asthma prevalence in children and adolescents in Spain is 10-17%. It is the most common chronic illness during childhood. Prevalence has been increasing over the last 40 years and there is considerable evidence that, among other factors, continued exposure to cigarette smoke results in asthma in children. No statistical or simulation model exist to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma in Europe. Such a model needs to incorporate the main risk factors that can be managed by medical authorities, such as tobacco (OR = 1.44), to establish how they affect the present generation of children. A simulation model using conditional probability and discrete event simulation for childhood asthma was developed and validated by simulating realistic scenario. The parameters used for the model (input data) were those found in the bibliography, especially those related to the incidence of smoking in Spain. We also used data from a panel of experts from the Hospital del Mar (Barcelona) related to actual evolution and asthma phenotypes. The results obtained from the simulation established a threshold of a 15-20% smoking population for a reduction in the prevalence of asthma. This is still far from the current level in Spain, where 24% of people smoke. We conclude that more effort must be made to combat smoking and other childhood asthma risk factors, in order to significantly reduce the number of cases. Once completed, this simulation methodology can realistically be used to forecast the evolution of childhood asthma as a function of variation in different risk factors.

Chaotic systems with a null conditional Lyapunov exponent under nonlinear driving.

Control of a chaotic system by homogeneous nonlinear driving, when a conditional Lyapunov exponent is zero, may give rise to special and interesting synchronizationlike behaviors in which the response evolves in perfect correlation with the drive. Among them, there are the amplification of the drive attractor and the shift of it to a different region of phase space. In this paper, these synchronizationlike behaviors are discussed, and demonstrated by computer simulation of the Lorentz model [E. N. Lorenz, J. Atmos. Sci. 20 130 (1963)] and the double scroll [T. Matsumoto, L. O. Chua, and M. Komuro, IEEE Trans. CAS CAS-32, 798 (1985)].

Conditional maximum likelihood timing recovery: estimators and bounds

This paper is concerned with the derivation of new estimators and performance bounds for the problem of timing estimation of (linearly) digitally modulated signals. The conditional maximum likelihood (CML) method is adopted, in contrast to the classical low-SNR unconditional ML (UML) formulationthat is systematically applied in the literature for the derivationof non-data-aided (NDA) timing-error-detectors (TEDs). A new CML TED is derived and proved to be self-noise free, in contrast to the conventional low-SNR-UML TED. In addition, the paper provides a derivation of the conditional Cramér–Rao Bound (CRB ), which is higher (less optimistic) than the modified CRB (MCRB)[which is only reached by decision-directed (DD) methods]. It is shown that the CRB is a lower bound on the asymptotic statisticalaccuracy of the set of consistent estimators that are quadratic with respect to the received signal. Although the obtained boundis not general, it applies to most NDA synchronizers proposed in the literature. A closed-form expression of the conditional CRBis obtained, and numerical results confirm that the CML TED attains the new bound for moderate to high Eg/No.

Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities

We propose new methods for evaluating predictive densities that focus on the models' actual predictive ability in finite samples. The tests offer a simple way of evaluatingthe correct specification of predictive densities, either parametric or non-parametric.The results indicate that our tests are well sized and have good power in detecting mis-specification in predictive densities. An empirical application to the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters and a baseline Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium modelshows the usefulness of our methodology.

Conditional equilibrium constants in multicomponent heterogeneous adsorption: The conditional affinity spectrum

The concept of conditional stability constant is extended to the competitive binding of small molecules to heterogeneous surfaces or macromolecules via the introduction of the conditional affinity spectrum (CAS). The CAS describes the distribution of effective binding energies experienced by one complexing agent at a fixed concentration of the rest. We show that, when the multicomponent system can be described in terms of an underlying affinity spectrum [integral equation (IE) approach], the system can always be characterized by means of a CAS. The thermodynamic properties of the CAS and its dependence on the concentration of the rest of components are discussed. In the context of metal/proton competition, analytical expressions for the mean (conditional average affinity) and the variance (conditional heterogeneity) of the CAS as functions of pH are reported and their physical interpretation discussed. Furthermore, we show that the dependence of the CAS variance on pH allows for the analytical determination of the correlation coefficient between the binding energies of the metal and the proton. Nonideal competitive adsorption isotherm and Frumkin isotherms are used to illustrate the results of this work. Finally, the possibility of using CAS when the IE approach does not apply (for instance, when multidentate binding is present) is explored. © 2006 American Institute of Physics.

La llibertat condicional a Catalunya

La recerca analitza quines són les claus actuals de l’ús dela LCa Catalunya. Per fer-ho, primer de tot explica quina és la realitat de les polítiques criminals i d’execució penal practicades a Catalunya i a Espanya i les compara amb altres realitats europees. Els resultats d’aquesta primera part fonamenten la conveniència de fer augmentar de manera significativa la seva aplicació i com aquest augment repercutiria positivament en la millora de les taxes de reincidència, en el desistiment del delicte i en la reinserció social de les persones encarcerades. En la segona part de l’estudi s’analitza el perfil de les persones que arriben a la LC però també de les que no hi arriben, tot i complir algunes de les condicions objectives per fer-ho. De l’estudi d’aquests perfils s’analitzen les similituds i diferències en les característiques dels penats i es fan propostes de millora en la classificació de grau penitenciari i la possibilitat de progressió sense que augmenti el risc teòric de reincidència ni el de recursos a assignar, tot i que sí resulti necessari pensar i fer-ne una redistribució dels actualment existents. La tercera part de l’estudi es dedica a analitzar els obstacles que té l’Administració per poder fer propostes de millora per augmentar la seva implementació. Entre les dificultats analitzades es comenten: el model d’aplicació espanyol sobre la LC, la satisfacció de la responsabilitat civil, els estrangers que es troben en situació administrativa irregular a Espanya, els retards en la concessió dels permisos ordinaris i les progressions de grau i el seguiment i control de la LC. L’estudi ha fet servir metodologies quantitatives i qualitatives simultàniament. La informació obtinguda es triangula i s’assenyalen aquells punts on el consens és més global i aquells punts més controvertits on els resultats no permeten extreure’n conclusions fefaents. En la part quantitativa s’han analitzat utilitzant diferents tècniques estadístiques 3.340 casos que es trobaven l’any 2012 en LC, 3r grau i 2n grau. En la part qualitativa, s’ha fet anàlisi de casos, entrevistes en profunditat, grups focals, tècnica Delphi i recull bibliogràfic i de legislació comparada. La recerca acaba proposant 23 propostes de millora agrupades en 6 blocs d’intervenció.

La libertad condicional en Cataluña

La investigación analiza cuáles son las claves actuales del uso de la libertad condicional (LC) en Cataluña. Para hacerlo, primero explica cuáles son las realidades de las políticas criminales y de ejecución penal practicadas en Cataluña y España y las compara con otras realidades europeas. Los resultados de esta primera parte fundamentan la conveniencia de aumentar de manera significativa su aplicación y cómo este aumento repercutiría positivamente en la mejora de las tasas de reincidencia, en el desistimiento del delito y en la reinserción social de las personas encarceladas. En la segunda parte del estudio se analiza el perfil de las personas que llegan a LC, pero también de las que no llegan, a pesar de cumplir algunas de las condiciones objetivas para hacerlo. Del estudio de estos perfiles se analizan las similitudes y diferencias en las características de los penados y se hacen propuestas de mejora en la clasificación de grado penitenciario y la posibilidad de progresión sin que aumente el riesgo teórico de reincidencia ni el de recursos a asignar, aunque sí hacer una redistribución de los actualmente existentes. La tercera parte del estudio analiza los obstáculos que tiene la Administración para poder hacer propuestas de mejora para aumentar la aplicación de la LC. Entre las dificultades analizadas se comentan: el modelo de aplicación español sobre la LC, la satisfacción de la responsabilidad civil, los extranjeros que se encuentran en situación administrativa irregular en España, los retrasos en la concesión de los permisos ordinarios y las progresiones de grado y el seguimiento y control de la LC. El estudio ha utilizado metodologías cuantitativas y cualitativas simultáneamente. La información obtenida se triangula y se señalan aquellos puntos donde el consenso es más global y aquellos puntos más controvertidos donde los resultados no permiten extraer conclusiones fehacientes. En la parte cuantitativa se han analizado 3.340 casos que se encontraban en 2012 en LC, 3 º grado y 2 º grado utilizando diferentes técnicas estadísticas. En la parte cualitativa, se han hecho análisis de casos, entrevistas en profundidad, grupos focales, técnica Delphi y recopilación bibliográfica y de legislación comparada. La investigación termina proponiendo 23 propuestas de mejora agrupadas en 6 bloques de intervención.

Measuring school demand in the presence of spatial dependence. A conditional approach

Improving educational quality is an important public policy goal. However, its success requires identifying factors associated with student achievement. At the core of these proposals lies the principle that increased public school quality can make school system more efficient, resulting in correspondingly stronger performance by students. Nevertheless, the public educational system is not devoid of competition which arises, among other factors, through the efficiency of management and the geographical location of schools. Moreover, families in Spain appear to choose a school on the grounds of location. In this environment, the objective of this paper is to analyze whether geographical space has an impact on the relationship between the level of technical quality of public schools (measured by the efficiency score) and the school demand index. To do this, an empirical application is performed on a sample of 1,695 public schools in the region of Catalonia (Spain). This application shows the effects of spatial autocorrelation on the estimation of the parameters and how these problems are addressed through spatial econometrics models. The results confirm that space has a moderating effect on the relationship between efficiency and school demand, although only in urban municipalities.

Empirical welfare analysis: when preferences matter

Fleurbaey and Maniquet have proposed the criteria of conditional equality and of egalitarian equivalence to assess the equity among individuals in an ordinal setting. Empirical applications are rare and only partially consistent with their framework. We propose a new empirical approach that relies on individual preferences, is consistent with the ordinal criteria and enables to compare them with the cardinal criteria. We estimate a utility function that incorporates individual heterogeneous preferences, obtain ordinal measures of well-being and apply conditional equality and egalitarian equivalence. We then propose two cardinal measures of well-being, that are comparable with the ordinal model, to compute Roemer’s and Van de gaer’s criteria. Finally we compare the characteristics of the worst-off displayed by each criterion. We apply this model to a sample of US micro data and obtain that about 18% of the worst-off are not common to all criteria.