New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks

This paper tests for real interest parity (RIRP) among the nineteen major OECD countries over the period 1978:Q2-1998:Q4. The econometric methods applied consist of combining the use of several unit root or stationarity tests designed for panels valid under cross-section dependence and presence of multiple structural breaks. Our results strongly support the fulfilment of the weak version of the RIRP for the studied period once dependence and structural breaks are accounted for.

An eclectic third generation model of financial and exchange rate crises

[cat] En aquest treball es presenta un model eclèctic que sistematitza la dinàmica de les crisis que s’autoconfimen, usant els principals aspectes de les tres tipologies dels models de crisis canviàries de tercera generació, amb la finalitat de descriure els fets que precipiten la renúncia al manteniment d’una paritat fixada. Les contribucions més notables són les implicacions per a la política econòmica, així com la pèrdua del paper del tipus de canvi com instrument d’ajust macroeconòmic, quan els efectes de balanç són una possibilitat real.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

Interiority of the optimal population growth rate with endogenous fertility

This paper analyzes the issue of the interiority of the optimal population growth rate in a two-period overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. Using Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions, we show that the introduction of a cost of raising children allows for the possibility of the existence of an interior global maximum in the planner¿s problem, contrary to the exogenous fertility case

Prices of medicines: a case-study on the impact of the rate-of-return regulation in the United Kingdom

This work carries out an empirical evaluation of the impact of the main mechanism for regulating the prices of medicines in the UK on a variety ofpharmaceutical price indices. The empirical evidence shows that the overall impact of the rate of return cap appears to have been slight or even null, and in any case that the impact would differ across therapeutic areas. These empiricalfindings suggest that the price regulation has managed to encourage UK-based firms¿ diversification in many therapeutic areas

Driving rate effects in avalanche-mediated first-order phase transitions

We study the driving-rate and temperature dependence of the power-law exponents that characterize the avalanche distribution in first-order phase transitions. Measurements of acoustic emission in structural transitions in Cu-Zn-Al and Cu-Al-Ni are presented. We show how the observed behavior emerges within a general framework of competing time scales of avalanche relaxation, driving rate, and thermal fluctuations. We confirm our findings by numerical simulations of a prototype model.

Effect of substrate temperature on deposition rate of rf plasma-deposited hydrogenated amorphous silicon thin films

We present a study about the influence of substrate temperature on deposition rate of hydrogenated amorphous silicon thin films prepared by rf glow discharge decomposition of pure silane gas in a capacitively coupled plasma reactor. Two different behaviors are observed depending on deposition pressure conditions. At high pressure (30 Pa) the influence of substrate temperature on deposition rate is mainly through a modification of gas density, in such a way that the substrate temperature of deposition rate is similar to pressure dependence at constant temperature. On the contrary, at low pressure (3 Pa), a gas density effect cannot account for the observed increase of deposition rate as substrate temperature rises above 450 K with an activation energy of 1.1 kcal/mole. In accordance with laser‐induced fluorescence measurements reported in the literature, this rise has been ascribed to an increase of secondary electron emission from the growing film surface as a result of molecular hydrogen desorption.

Influence of pressure and radio frequency power on deposition rate and structural properties of hydrogenated amorphous silicon thin films prepared by plasma deposition

The influence of radio frequency (rf) power and pressure on deposition rate and structural properties of hydrogenated amorphous silicon (a-Si:H) thin films, prepared by rf glow discharge decomposition of silane, have been studied by phase modulated ellipsometry and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy. It has been found two pressure regions separated by a threshold value around 20 Pa where the deposition rate increases suddenly. This behavior is more marked as rf power rises and reflects the transition between two rf discharges regimes. The best quality films have been obtained at low pressure and at low rf power but with deposition rates below 0.2 nm/s. In the high pressure region, the enhancement of deposition rate as rf power increases first gives rise to a reduction of film density and an increase of content of hydrogen bonded in polyhydride form because of plasma polymerization reactions. Further rise of rf power leads to a decrease of polyhydride bonding and the material density remains unchanged, thus allowing the growth of a-Si:H films at deposition rates above 1 nm/s without any important detriment of material quality. This overcoming of deposition rate limitation has been ascribed to the beneficial effects of ion bombardment on the a-Si:H growing surface by enhancing the surface mobility of adsorbed reactive species and by eliminating hydrogen bonded in polyhydride configurations.

Chaotic, memory, and cooling rate effects in spin glasses: Evaluation of the Edwards-Anderson model

We investigate chaotic, memory, and cooling rate effects in the three-dimensional Edwards-Anderson model by doing thermoremanent (TRM) and ac susceptibility numerical experiments and making a detailed comparison with laboratory experiments on spin glasses. In contrast to the experiments, the Edwards-Anderson model does not show any trace of reinitialization processes in temperature change experiments (TRM or ac). A detailed comparison with ac relaxation experiments in the presence of dc magnetic field or coupling distribution perturbations reveals that the absence of chaotic effects in the Edwards-Anderson model is a consequence of the presence of strong cooling rate effects. We discuss possible solutions to this discrepancy, in particular the smallness of the time scales reached in numerical experiments, but we also question the validity of the Edwards-Anderson model to reproduce the experimental results.

An eclectic third generation model of financial and exchange rate crises

[cat] En aquest treball es presenta un model eclèctic que sistematitza la dinàmica de les crisis que s’autoconfimen, usant els principals aspectes de les tres tipologies dels models de crisis canviàries de tercera generació, amb la finalitat de descriure els fets que precipiten la renúncia al manteniment d’una paritat fixada. Les contribucions més notables són les implicacions per a la política econòmica, així com la pèrdua del paper del tipus de canvi com instrument d’ajust macroeconòmic, quan els efectes de balanç són una possibilitat real.

Prices of medicines: a case-study on the impact of the rate-of-return regulation in the United Kingdom

This work carries out an empirical evaluation of the impact of the main mechanism for regulating the prices of medicines in the UK on a variety ofpharmaceutical price indices. The empirical evidence shows that the overall impact of the rate of return cap appears to have been slight or even null, and in any case that the impact would differ across therapeutic areas. These empiricalfindings suggest that the price regulation has managed to encourage UK-based firms¿ diversification in many therapeutic areas

Growth rate of fractal copper electrodeposits: Potential and concentration effects

Experiments are reported on fractal copper electrodeposits. An electrochemical cell was designed in order to obtain a potentiostatic control on the quasi-two-dimensional electrodeposition process. The aim was focused on the analysis of the growth rate of the electrodeposited phase, in particular its dependence on the electrode potential and electrolyte concentration.

Interiority of the optimal population growth rate with endogenous fertility

This paper analyzes the issue of the interiority of the optimal population growth rate in a two-period overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. Using Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions, we show that the introduction of a cost of raising children allows for the possibility of the existence of an interior global maximum in the planner¿s problem, contrary to the exogenous fertility case

Exploring the rate-limiting steps in visual phototransduction recovery by bottom-up kinetic modeling

Phototransduction in vertebrate photoreceptor cells represents a paradigm of signaling pathways mediated by G-protein-coupled receptors (GPCRs), which share common modules linking the initiation of the cascade to the final response of the cell. In this work, we focused on the recovery phase of the visual photoresponse, which is comprised of several interacting mechanisms. We employed current biochemical knowledge to investigate the response mechanisms of a comprehensive model of the visual phototransduction pathway. In particular, we have improved the model by implementing a more detailed representation of the recoverin (Rec)-mediated calcium feedback on rhodopsin kinase and including a dynamic arrestin (Arr) oligomerization mechanism. The model was successfully employed to investigate the rate limiting steps in the recovery of the rod photoreceptor cell after illumination. Simulation of experimental conditions in which the expression levels of rhodospin kinase (RK), of the regulator of the G-protein signaling (RGS), of Arr and of Rec were altered individually or in combination revealed severe kinetic constraints to the dynamics of the overall network. Our simulations confirm that RGS-mediated effector shutdown is the rate-limiting step in the recovery of the photoreceptor and show that the dynamic formation and dissociation of Arr homodimers and homotetramers at different light intensities significantly affect the timing of rhodopsin shutdown. The transition of Arr from its oligomeric storage forms to its monomeric form serves to temper its availability in the functional state. Our results may explain the puzzling evidence that overexpressing RK does not influence the saturation time of rod cells at bright light stimuli. The approach presented here could be extended to the study of other GPCR signaling pathways.

Exchange rate predictability

The main goal of this article is to provide an answer to the question: "Does anything forecast exchange rates, and if so, which variables?". It is well known thatexchange rate fluctuations are very difficult to predict using economic models, andthat a random walk forecasts exchange rates better than any economic model (theMeese and Rogoff puzzle). However, the recent literature has identified a series of fundamentals/methodologies that claim to have resolved the puzzle. This article providesa critical review of the recent literature on exchange rate forecasting and illustratesthe new methodologies and fundamentals that have been recently proposed in an up-to-date, thorough empirical analysis. Overall, our analysis of the literature and thedata suggests that the answer to the question: "Are exchange rates predictable?" is,"It depends" -on the choice of predictor, forecast horizon, sample period, model, andforecast evaluation method. Predictability is most apparent when one or more of thefollowing hold: the predictors are Taylor rule or net foreign assets, the model is linear, and a small number of parameters are estimated. The toughest benchmark is therandom walk without drift.