Business Cycle Regimes in CEECs Production: A Threshold SURE Approach

We use a threshold seemingly unrelated regressions specification to assess whether the Central and East European countries (CEECs) are synchronized in their business cycles to the Euro-area. This specification is useful in two ways: First, it takes into account the common institutional factors and the similarities across CEECs in their process of economic transition. Second, it captures business cycle asymmetries by allowing for the presence of two distinct regimes for the CEECs. As the CEECs are strongly affected by the Euro-area these regimes may be associated with Euro-area expansions and contractions. We discuss representation, estimation by maximum likelihood and inference. The methodology is illustrated by using monthly industrial production in 8 CEECs. The results show that apart from Lithuania the rest of the CEECs experience “normal” growth when the Euro-area contracts and “high” growth when the Euro-area expands. Given that the CEECs are “catching up” with the Euro-area this result shows that most CEECs seem synchronized to the Euro-area cycle. Keywords: Threshold SURE; asymmetry; business cycles; CEECs. JEL classification: C33; C50; E32.

A priori ratemaking using bivariate poisson regression models

In automobile insurance, it is useful to achieve a priori ratemaking by resorting to gene- ralized linear models, and here the Poisson regression model constitutes the most widely accepted basis. However, insurance companies distinguish between claims with or without bodily injuries, or claims with full or partial liability of the insured driver. This paper exa- mines an a priori ratemaking procedure when including two di®erent types of claim. When assuming independence between claim types, the premium can be obtained by summing the premiums for each type of guarantee and is dependent on the rating factors chosen. If the independence assumption is relaxed, then it is unclear as to how the tari® system might be a®ected. In order to answer this question, bivariate Poisson regression models, suitable for paired count data exhibiting correlation, are introduced. It is shown that the usual independence assumption is unrealistic here. These models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database containing 80,994 contracts belonging to a Spanish insurance company. Finally, the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using a bivariate Poisson regression model are analysed.

Privatization and competition in the delivery of local services: An empirical examination of the dual market hypothesis

This paper empirically analyses the hypothesis of the existence of a dual market for contracts in local services. Large firms that operate on a national basis control the contracts for delivery in the most populated and/or urban municipalities, whereas small firms that operate at a local level have the contracts in the least populated and/or rural municipalities. The dual market implies the high concentration and dominance of major firms in large municipalities, and local monopolies in the smaller ones. This market structure is harmful to competition for the market as the effective number of competitors is low across all municipalities. Thus, it damages the likelihood of obtaining cost savings from privatization.

Decentralization and the Gains from Monitoring

This paper analyzes the delegation of contracting capacity in a moral hazard environment with sequential production in a project which involves a principal and two agents. The agent in charge of the …nal production can obtain soft information about the other agent's effort choice by investing in monitoring. I investigate the circumstances under which it is optimal for the principal to use a centralized organization in which she designs the contracts with both agents or to use a decentralized organization in which she contracts only one agent, and delegates the power to contract the other agent. It is shown that in this setting a decentralized organization can be superior to a centralized organization. This is because the principal is better off under monitoring and the incentives for an agent to invest in monitoring can be higher in a decentralized organization. The circumstances under which this is true are related to the monitoring costs and the importance of each agent for production. The results explain the recent application of the design-build method in public procurement. Journal of Economic Literature Classi…cation Numbers: D23, D82, L14, L22. Keywords: Decentralization of Contracting, Monitoring, Moral Hazard.

Work values, endogenous sentiments and redistribution

We examine the interactions between individual behavior, sentiments and the social contract in a model of rational voting over redistribution. Agents have moral "work values". Individuals' self-esteem and social consideration of others are endogenously determined comparing behaviors to moral standards. Attitudes toward redistribution depend on self-interest and social preferences. We characterize the politico-economic equilibria in which sentiments, labor supply and redistribution are determined simultaneously. The equilibria feature different degrees of "social cohesion" and redistribution depending on pre-tax income inequality. In clustered equilibria the poor are held partly responsible for their low income since they work less than the moral standard and hence redistribution is low. The paper proposes a novel explanation for the emergence of different sentiments and social contracts across countries. The predictions appear broadly in line with well-documented differences between the United States and Europe.

The Part-time pay penalty in a segmented labor market

This paper is the first to examine the implications of switching to PT work for women's subsequent earnings trajectories, distinguishing by their type of contract: permanent or fixedterm. Using a rich longitudinal Spanish data set from Social Security records of over 76,000 prime-aged women strongly attached to the Spanish labor market, we find that PT work aggravates the segmentation of the labor market insofar there is a PT pay penalty and this penalty is larger and more persistent in the case of women with fixed-term contracts. The paper discusses problems arising in empirical estimation (including a problem not discussed in the literature up to now: the differential measurement error of the LHS variable by PT status), and how to address them. It concludes with policy implications relevant for Continental Europe and its dual structure of employment protection.

A logistic regression approach to estimating customer profit loss due to lapses in insurance

This article focuses on business risk management in the insurance industry. A methodology for estimating the profit loss caused by each customer in the portfolio due to policy cancellation is proposed. Using data from a European insurance company, customer behaviour over time is analyzed in order to estimate the probability of policy cancelation and the resulting potential profit loss due to cancellation. Customers may have up to two different lines of business contracts: motor insurance and other diverse insurance (such as, home contents, life or accident insurance). Implications for understanding customer cancellation behaviour as the core of business risk management are outlined.

El dret civil català davant la transposició de la directiva 2008/112, relativa a certs aspectes contractuals de l’aprofitament per torns de béns mobles i immobles

L’objectiu principal d’aquest estudi consisteix a determinar quines implicacions té en l’ordenament jurídic civil català l’aprovació de la Directiva 2008/122, del Parlament Europeu i del Consell, 14.1.2009, relativa a la protecció dels consumidors respecte a determinats aspectes dels contractes d’aprofitament per torn de béns d’ús turístic, d’adquisició de productes de vacances de llarga durada, de revenda i d’intercanvi.

Traducció i estudi de documents demòtics datats del regnat d'Alexandre el Gran (332-323 aC)

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a l’Oriental Institute de la University of Oxford, Regne Unit, entre juliol i octubre de 2007. Durant l’estada s’ha analitzat la documentació demòtica datada del regnat d’Alexandre el Gran com a faraó d’Egipte (332-323 aC). El conjunt de fonts que examinat està constituït per sis papirs (actes notarials que recullen diversos tipus de contractes o acords entre dues parts), un òstrakon fragmentari i una sèrie d’esteles provinents de la Necròpolis d’Animals de Saqqara Nord, en concret de la Catacumba de les Mares d’Apis. Aquesta documentació és fonamental perquè permet extreure conclusions importants sobre diversos aspectes relacionats amb l’administració i la religiositat egípcies en els moments inicials de la dominació grega d'Egipte. Cadascun d’aquests documents ha estat traduït, analitzat en profunditat i degudament contextualitzat històricament. D’una banda, en l’àmbit de l’administració, he pogut constatar la continuïtat existent amb el període històric immediatament anterior, és a dir, amb la Segona Dominació Persa del país; mentre que de l'altra, des del punt de vista religiós, l’anàlisi d’aquestes fonts m’ha permès verificar l'existència de tota una sèrie de canvis substancials, estretament vinculats a la voluntat expressa de la nova elit dirigent d'origen grec de distanciar-se dels seus predecessors aquemènides i de marcar amb força l’obertura d’una nova era que es caracteritzarà pel respecte a les tradicions autòctones i per la potenciació dels cultes nacionals.

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

Implementació del disseny per contractes mitjançant la tecnologia orientada a aspectes

L'objectiu d'aquest projecte és fer un prototipus capaç de generar l'entorn necessari per a implementar els contractes de les classes que formen part de la llibreria TAD de l'assignatura d'Estructura de la informació, mitjançant la tecnologia orientada a aspectes i el llenguatge Java.

Sistema de reservas hoteleras RESHOTEL

XXXTOUR és una empresa que té com a principal negoci fer d'intermediari per a les agències de viatge i els particulars que vulguin reservar places hoteleres, d'una banda, i per als establiments hotelers, de l'altra. Així, doncs, contracta aquestes places a uns proveïdors i les ven a aquests clients. En l'actualitat, els proveïdors comuniquen a XXXTOUR totes les dades referents a les places mitjançant documents impresos i per telèfon, i els treballadors de l'empresa les han d'introduir al sistema d'informació de l'empresa. Per mitjà del nou sistema, els proveïdors, a més de poder emprar la funcionalitat actual, podran accedir al portal d'XXXTOUR i introduir les seves pròpies dades. I quan rebin una petició de places les podran confirmar accedint al portal, de manera que el client tindrà les places sol·licitades molt més aviat, cosa que millora el servei.

La protecció de la part feble del contracte en el dret civil català i en el dret civil europeu

La investigación analiza si, con el horizonte del Libro Sexto del Código Civil de Cataluña relativo a las obligaciones y los contratos, el legislador catalán tiene que mantener el modelo tradicional de la rescisión por lesión ultradimidium, o bien tiene que integrar esta institución en el marco de la protección de la parte débil del contrato, en la línea de las modernas propuestas de derecho europeo.

One kind of lawlessness: estimating the welfare cost of Somali piracy

This paper estimates the effect of piracy attacks on shipping costs using a unique data set on shipping contracts in the dry bulk market. We look at shipping routes whose shortest path exposes them to piracy attacks and find that the increase in attacks in 2008 lead to around a ten percent increase in shipping costs. We use this estimate to get a sense of the welfare loss imposed by piracy. Our intermediate estimate suggests that the creation of $120 million of revenue for pirates in the Somalia area led to a welfare loss of over $1.5 billion.

Let's talk: how communication affects contract design

We study experimentally how the ability to communicate affects the frequency and effectiveness of flexible and inflexible contracts in a bilateral trade context where sellers can adjust trade quality after observing a post-contractual cost shock and a discretionary buyer transfer. In the absence of communication, we find that rigid contracts are more frequent and lead to higher earnings for both buyer and seller. By contrast, in the presence of communication, flexible contracts are much more frequent and considerably more productive, both for buyers and sellers. Also, both buyer and seller earn considerably more from flexible with communication than rigid without communication. Our results show quite strongly that communication, a normal feature in contracting, can remove the potential cost of flexibility (disagreements caused by conflicting perceptions). We offer an explanation based on social norms.