Principal curves and principal oriented points

Principal curves have been defined Hastie and Stuetzle (JASA, 1989) assmooth curves passing through the middle of a multidimensional dataset. They are nonlinear generalizations of the first principalcomponent, a characterization of which is the basis for the principalcurves definition.In this paper we propose an alternative approach based on a differentproperty of principal components. Consider a point in the space wherea multivariate normal is defined and, for each hyperplane containingthat point, compute the total variance of the normal distributionconditioned to belong to that hyperplane. Choose now the hyperplaneminimizing this conditional total variance and look for thecorresponding conditional mean. The first principal component of theoriginal distribution passes by this conditional mean and it isorthogonal to that hyperplane. This property is easily generalized todata sets with nonlinear structure. Repeating the search from differentstarting points, many points analogous to conditional means are found.We call them principal oriented points. When a one-dimensional curveruns the set of these special points it is called principal curve oforiented points. Successive principal curves are recursively definedfrom a generalization of the total variance.

Forecasting and turning point predictions in a Bayesian panel VAR model

We provide methods for forecasting variables and predicting turning points in panel Bayesian VARs. We specify a flexible model which accounts for both interdependencies in the cross section and time variations in the parameters. Posterior distributions for the parameters are obtained for a particular type of diffuse, for Minnesota-type and for hierarchical priors. Formulas for multistep, multiunit point and average forecasts are provided. An application to the problem of forecasting the growth rate of output and of predicting turning points in the G-7 illustrates the approach. A comparison with alternative forecasting methods is also provided.

Price regulation of plastic money: A critical assessment of Spanish rules

Recent decisions by the Spanish national competition authority (TDC) mandate paymentsystems to include only two costs when setting their domestic multilateral interchange fees(MIF): a fixed processing cost and a variable cost for the risk of fraud. This artificiallowering of MIFs will not lower consumer prices, because of uncompetitive retailing; but itwill however lead to higher cardholders fees and, likely, new prices for point of saleterminals, delaying the development of the immature Spanish card market. Also, to the extent that increased cardholders fees do not offset the fall in MIFs revenue, the task of issuing new cards will be underpaid relatively to the task of acquiring new merchants, causing an imbalance between the two sides of the networks. Moreover, the pricing scheme arising from the decisions will cause unbundling and underprovision of those services whose costs are excluded. Indeed, the payment guarantee and the free funding period will tend to be removed from the package of services currently provided, to be either provided by third parties, by issuers for a separate fee, or not provided at all, especially to smaller and medium-sized merchants. Transaction services will also suffer the consequences that the TDC precludes pricing them in variable terms.

Mixed equilibrium in a Downsian model with a favored candidate

This paper examines competition in the standard one-dimensional Downsian model of two-candidate elections, but where one candidate (A) enjoys an advantage over the other candidate (D). Voters' preferences are Euclidean, but any voter will vote for candidate A over candidate D unless D is closer to her ideal point by some fixed distance \delta. The location of the median voter's ideal point is uncertain, and its distribution is commonly known by both candidates. The candidates simultaneously choose locations to maximize the probability of victory. Pure strategy equilibria often fails to exist in this model, except under special conditions about \delta and the distribution of the median ideal point. We solve for the essentially unique symmetric mixed equilibrium, show that candidate A adopts more moderate policies than candidate D, and obtain some comparative statics results about the probability of victory and the expected distance between the two candidates' policies.

Financing constraints and fixed-term employment contracts

This paper studies the interactions between financing constraints and theemployment decisions of firms when both fixed-term and permanent employmentcontracts are available. We first develop a dynamic model that shows theeffects of financing constraints and firing costs on employment decisions. Oncecalibrated, the model shows that financially constrained firms tend to use moreintensely fixed term workers, and to make them absorb a larger fraction of thetotal employment volatility than financially unconstrained firms do. We testand confirm the predictions of the model on a unique panel data of Italian manufacturingfirms with detailed information about the type of workers employedby the firms and about firm financing constraints.

Fixed and random effects in Classical and Bayesian regression

This paper proposes a common and tractable framework for analyzingdifferent definitions of fixed and random effects in a contant-slopevariable-intercept model. It is shown that, regardless of whethereffects (i) are treated as parameters or as an error term, (ii) areestimated in different stages of a hierarchical model, or whether (iii)correlation between effects and regressors is allowed, when the sameinformation on effects is introduced into all estimation methods, theresulting slope estimator is also the same across methods. If differentmethods produce different results, it is ultimately because differentinformation is being used for each methods.

Restoration of a lost geological reference point: the loggingstone of Pedralta (Girona, Spain)

The Pedralta is a loggingstone formed of monzonitic leucogranites, which has a volume of about 38 m3 and weighs 101 tons. After its fall in December 1996, a public subscription was opened to meet the expenses of the restoration work, which was completed in May 1999

Determination of sea surface salinity and wind speed by L-band microwave radiometry from a fixed platform

The European Space Agency Soil Moisture andOcean Salinity (SMOS) mission aims at obtaining global maps ofsoil moisture and sea surface salinity from space for large-scale andclimatic studies. It uses an L-band (1400–1427 MHz) MicrowaveInterferometric Radiometer by Aperture Synthesis to measurebrightness temperature of the earth’s surface at horizontal andvertical polarizations ( h and v). These two parameters will beused together to retrieve the geophysical parameters. The retrievalof salinity is a complex process that requires the knowledge ofother environmental information and an accurate processing ofthe radiometer measurements. Here, we present recent resultsobtained from several studies and field experiments that were partof the SMOS mission, and highlight the issues still to be solved.

Inaugural adress: The concept of biostratigraphy: the view point of a stratigrapher

Colleagues, Ladies and Gentlemen. My presence here is due to accidental circumstances and I must confess that I feel a little embarassed by the fact Both your scientific quality and the worlwide acceptance of the results achieved by you in your research fields make me prudent and, to a certain extent, cautious.

Fixed-angle elastic hadron scattering

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Hysteresis and return-point memory in deterministic cellular automata

We have investigated hysteresis and the return-point memory (RPM) property in deterministic cellular automata with avalanche dynamics. The RPM property reflects a partial ordering of metastable states, preserved by the dynamics. Recently, Sethna et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 70, 3347 (1993)] proved this behavior for a homogeneously driven system with static disorder. This Letter shows that the partial ordering and the RPM can be displayed as well by systems driven heterogeneously, as a result of its own evolution dynamics. In particular, we prove the RPM property for a deterministic 2D sandpile automaton driven at a central site.

Dynamical Systems approach to Saffman-Taylor fingering. A Dynamical Solvability Scenario

A dynamical systems approach to competition of Saffman-Taylor fingers in a Hele-Shaw channel is developed. This is based on global analysis of the phase space flow of the low-dimensional ordinary-differential-equation sets associated with the classes of exact solutions of the problem without surface tension. Some simple examples are studied in detail. A general proof of the existence of finite-time singularities for broad classes of solutions is given. Solutions leading to finite-time interface pinchoff are also identified. The existence of a continuum of multifinger fixed points and its dynamical implications are discussed. We conclude that exact zero-surface tension solutions taken in a global sense as families of trajectories in phase space are unphysical because the multifinger fixed points are nonhyperbolic, and an unfolding does not exist within the same class of solutions. Hyperbolicity (saddle-point structure) of the multifinger fixed points is argued to be essential to the physically correct qualitative description of finger competition. The restoring of hyperbolicity by surface tension is proposed as the key point to formulate a generic dynamical solvability scenario for interfacial pattern selection.

Woody Allen i l'esperit de la tragèdia grega: de Crimes and Misdemeanors a Match Point

Nombrosos són ja els estudis que s'han centrat en l'anomenat "cinema seriós" de Woody Allen i, entre ells, paga la pena de mencionar el que Pau Gilabert Barberà, autor d'aquest article, va escriure (2006) sobre el que, en opinió seva, és el llegat sofístic subjacent en el guió de Crimes and Misdemeanors. En aquesta ocasió, el seu objectiu és analitzar la trajectòria fluctuant del director americà en relació a la tragèdia grega, des de la convicció que, només així, és possible revelar la seva empatia amb l'esperit tràgic dels grecs i comprendre la seva necessitat de presentar aquell gènere literari com un paradigma des del qual entendre les grandeses i misèries del món contemporani.

Woody Allen and the Spirit of the Greek Tragedy: from Crimes and Misdemeanors to Match Point

Many studies have already paid attention to what is called the "serious films" by Woody Allen and, among them, it is also worth mentioning the one written by the very Pau Gilabert Barberà (2006), which is devoted to the Sophistic legacy underlying in his opinion the screenplay of Crimes and Misdemeanors. On this occasion, his aim is to analyse the fluctuating sight of the American director with regard to the Greek tragedy. Indeed, Gilabert is convinced that, only in this way, it is possible to reveal the true Allen¿s sympathy with the tragic spirit of the Greeks, as well as to understand his urge to present that ancient literary genre as a paradigm with the help of which one can evaluate the greatness and misery of our contemporary world.