Federico II de Prusia : el rey flautista

En un momento histórico en el que las tendencias musicales en Europa estaban a medio camino entre el Barroco y el Clasicismo, confluyeron en la corte de Federico el Grande una serie de músicos que trabajaron para el rey prusiano y que compusieron una gran cantidad de música para flauta, instrumento que él tocaba. La actividad musical del Berlín de esos años se convirtió así en relevante para el mundo flautístico. Profundizaremos en este trabajo en la figura del monarca, en la relación de éste con sus músicos y en las características principales de la música de la segunda mitad del siglo XVIII.

Measuring the stability of histogram appearance when the anchor position is changed

Although the histogram is the most widely used density estimator, itis well--known that the appearance of a constructed histogram for a given binwidth can change markedly for different choices of anchor position. In thispaper we construct a stability index $G$ that assesses the potential changesin the appearance of histograms for a given data set and bin width as theanchor position changes. If a particular bin width choice leads to an unstableappearance, the arbitrary choice of any one anchor position is dangerous, anda different bin width should be considered. The index is based on the statisticalroughness of the histogram estimate. We show via Monte Carlo simulation thatdensities with more structure are more likely to lead to histograms withunstable appearance. In addition, ignoring the precision to which the datavalues are provided when choosing the bin width leads to instability. We provideseveral real data examples to illustrate the properties of $G$. Applicationsto other binned density estimators are also discussed.

Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates

When long maturity bonds are traded frequently and traders have non-nestedinformation sets, speculative behavior in the sense of Harrison and Kreps (1978) arises.Using a term structure model displaying such speculative behavior, this paper proposesa conceptually and observationally distinct new mechanism generating time varying predictableexcess returns. It is demonstrated that (i) dispersion of expectations about futureshort rates is sufficient for individual traders to systematically predict excess returns and(ii) the new term structure dynamics driven by speculative trade is orthogonal to publicinformation in real time, but (iii) can nevertheless be quantified using only publicly availableyield data. The model is estimated using monthly data on US short to medium termTreasuries from 1964 to 2007 and it provides a good fit of the data. Speculative dynamicsare found to be quantitatively important, potentially accounting for a substantial fractionof the variation of bond yields and appears to be more important at long maturities.

Implementing interactive computing in an object-oriented environment

Statistical computing when input/output is driven by a Graphical User Interface is considered. A proposal is made for automatic control ofcomputational flow to ensure that only strictly required computationsare actually carried on. The computational flow is modeled by a directed graph for implementation in any object-oriented programming language with symbolic manipulation capabilities. A complete implementation example is presented to compute and display frequency based piecewise linear density estimators such as histograms or frequency polygons.

Interactive local bandwidth choice

A tool for user choice of the local bandwidth function for a kernel density estimate is developed using KDE, a graphical object-oriented package for interactive kernel density estimation written in LISP-STAT. The bandwidth function is a cubic spline, whose knots are manipulated by the user in one window, while the resulting estimate appears in another window. A real data illustration of this method raises concerns, because an extremely large family of estimates is available.

Estimating parliamentary composition through electoral polls

Any electoral system has an electoral formula that converts voteproportions into parliamentary seats. Pre-electoral polls usually focuson estimating vote proportions and then applying the electoral formulato give a forecast of the parliament's composition. We here describe theproblems arising from this approach: there is always a bias in theforecast. We study the origin of the bias and some methods to evaluateand to reduce it. We propose some rules to compute the sample sizerequired for a given forecast accuracy. We show by Monte Carlo simulationthe performance of the proposed methods using data from Spanish electionsin last years. We also propose graphical methods to visualize how electoralformulae and parliamentary forecasts work (or fail).

Inequalities for a new data-based method for selecting nonparametric density estimates

We continue the development of a method for the selection of a bandwidth or a number of design parameters in density estimation. We provideexplicit non-asymptotic density-free inequalities that relate the $L_1$ error of the selected estimate with that of the best possible estimate,and study in particular the connection between the richness of the classof density estimates and the performance bound. For example, our methodallows one to pick the bandwidth and kernel order in the kernel estimatesimultaneously and still assure that for {\it all densities}, the $L_1$error of the corresponding kernel estimate is not larger than aboutthree times the error of the estimate with the optimal smoothing factor and kernel plus a constant times $\sqrt{\log n/n}$, where $n$ is the sample size, and the constant only depends on the complexity of the family of kernels used in the estimate. Further applications include multivariate kernel estimates, transformed kernel estimates, and variablekernel estimates.

Assessment of microbial community structure changes by amplified ribosomal DNA restriction analysis (ARDRA)

Amplified ribosomal DNA restriction analysis (ARDRA) is a simple method based on restriction endonuclease digestion of the amplified bacterial 16S rDNA. In this study we have evaluated the suitability of this method to detect differences in activated sludge bacterial communities fed on domestic or industrial wastewater, and subject to different operational conditions. The ability of ARDRA to detect these differences has been tested in modified Ludzack-Ettinger (MLE) configurations. Samples from three activated sludge wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) with the MLE configuration were collected for both oxic and anoxic reactors, and ARDRA patterns using double enzyme digestions AluI+MspI were obtained. A matrix of Dice similarity coefficients was calculated and used to compare these restriction patterns. Differences in the community structure due to influent characteristics and temperature could be observed, but not between the oxic and anoxic reactors of each of the three MLE configurations. Other possible applications of ARDRA for detecting and monitoring changes in activated sludge systems are also discussed

Improving energy access in rural sub-Saharan Africa

XVII Convocatòria d’ajuts a accions de cooperació - 2009GRECDH – UPC. Improving Energy Access In Rural sub- Saharan Africa. O-006/09. Informe

Applications of the bootstrap to survival analysis

En este trabajo se revisan algunas de las aplicaciones clásicas del bootstrap al análisis de la supervivencia. Se consideran en primer lugar el estimador bootstrap de la varianza y el estimador de la mediana corregido para el sesgo del estimador de Kaplan-Meier de la función de supervivencia. A continuación se consideran algunos aspectos mas recientes, tales como métodos para construir bandas de confianza para el estimador de la funcidn de supervivencia y contrastes aproximados para la comparación de funciones de supervivencia. En ambas situaciones el bootstrap resulta de gran utilidad para la aproximación de 10s valores críticos necesarios.

Regional and cellular patterns of reelin mRNA expression in the forebrain of the developing and adult mouse

The reelin gene encodes an extracellular protein that is crucial for neuronal migration in laminated brain regions. To gain insights into the functions of Reelin, we performed high-resolution in situ hybridization analyses to determine the pattern of reelin expression in the developing forebrain of the mouse. We also performed double-labeling studies with several markers, including calcium-binding proteins, GAD65/67, and neuropeptides, to characterize the neuronal subsets that express reelin transcripts. reelinexpression was detected at embryonic day 10 and later in the forebrain, with a distribution that is consistent with the prosomeric model of forebrain regionalization. In the diencephalon, expression was restricted to transverse and longitudinal domains that delineated boundaries between neuromeres. During embryogenesis,reelin was detected in the cerebral cortex in Cajal-Retzius cells but not in the GABAergic neurons of layer I. At prenatal stages, reelin was also expressed in the olfactory bulb, and striatum and in restricted nuclei in the ventral telencephalon, hypothalamus, thalamus, and pretectum. At postnatal stages, reelin transcripts gradually disappeared from Cajal-Retzius cells, at the same time as they appeared in subsets of GABAergic neurons distributed throughout neocortical and hippocampal layers. In other telencephalic and diencephalic regions,reelin expression decreased steadily during the postnatal period. In the adult, there was prominent expression in the olfactory bulb and cerebral cortex, where it was restricted to subsets of GABAergic interneurons that co-expressed calbindin, calretinin, neuropeptide Y, and somatostatin. This complex pattern of cellular and regional expression is consistent with Reelin having multiple roles in brain development and adult brain function.

Electronic and magnetic structure of LaMnO3 from hybrid periodic density-functional theory

The electronic and magnetic structures of the LaMnO3 compound have been studied by means of periodic calculations within the framework of spin polarized hybrid density-functional theory. In order to quantify the role of approximations to electronic exchange and correlation three different hybrid functionals have been used which mix nonlocal Fock and local Dirac-Slater exchange. Periodic Hartree-Fock results are also reported for comparative purposes. The A-antiferromagnetic ground state is properly predicted by all methods including Hartree-Fock exchange. In general, the different hybrid methods provide a rather accurate description of the band gap and of the two magnetic coupling constants, strongly suggesting that the corresponding description of the electronic structure is also accurate. An important conclusion emerging from this study is that the nature of the occupied states near the Fermi level is intermediate between the Hartree-Fock and local density approximation descriptions with a comparable participation of both Mn and O states.

Diagnóstico de las dificultades de lectura y escritura y de la dislexia basado en la Teoría PASS de lainteligencia utilizando la batería DN-CAS. Origen cognitivo de la dislexia

Las dificultades de lectura y escritura se pueden detectar desde el momento en que los niños y niñas inician el aprendizaje de la lectoescritura en la etapa de Educación Infantil. En algunos casos estos alumnos reciben un apoyo escolar que en muchas ocasiones no conlleva las mejoras esperadas, siendo las técnicas y metodologías de refuerzo aplicadas ineficaces. El problema, desde nuestro punto de vista, empieza con el diagnóstico que se realiza a estos jóvenes, que determina las directrices de la intervención idónea en cada caso. La Teoría PASS de la inteligencia nos permite conocer qué procesos están implicados cuando el niño lee o escribe, y parte de la premisa de que si conocemos el perfil cognitivo de un alumno que presenta dificultades podremos entender como estas se originan. Para conocer este perfil cognitivo (los cuatro procesos cognitivos que describe esta teoría: Planificación, Atención, Simultaneo y Secuencial) utilizamos la batería DN-CAS (Das & Naglieri: Cognitive Assessment System). El perfil obtenido al aplicar el DN-CAS nos permitirá conocer el origen de las dificultades de lectura y escritura, saber cuando está justificada una dislexia, descartar problemas emocionales o la presencia de los mismos y diseñar la intervención más adecuada en cada situación