Mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models with an application to insurance

In a recent paper Bermúdez [2009] used bivariate Poisson regression models for ratemaking in car insurance, and included zero-inflated models to account for the excess of zeros and the overdispersion in the data set. In the present paper, we revisit this model in order to consider alternatives. We propose a 2-finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models to demonstrate that the overdispersion in the data requires more structure if it is to be taken into account, and that a simple zero-inflated bivariate Poisson model does not suffice. At the same time, we show that a finite mixture of bivariate Poisson regression models embraces zero-inflated bivariate Poisson regression models as a special case. Additionally, we describe a model in which the mixing proportions are dependent on covariates when modelling the way in which each individual belongs to a separate cluster. Finally, an EM algorithm is provided in order to ensure the models’ ease-of-fit. These models are applied to the same automobile insurance claims data set as used in Bermúdez [2009] and it is shown that the modelling of the data set can be improved considerably.

On Lundh's percolation diffusion

A collection of spherical obstacles in the unit ball in Euclidean space is said to be avoidable for Brownian motion if there is a positive probability that Brownian motion diffusing from some point in the ball will avoid all the obstacles and reach the boundary of the ball. The centres of the spherical obstacles are generated according to a Poisson point process while the radius of an obstacle is a deterministic function. If avoidable configurations are generated with positive probability Lundh calls this percolation diffusion. An integral condition for percolation diffusion is derived in terms of the intensity of the point process and the function that determines the radii of the obstacles.

Prevención, seguimiento y evaluación de la descontaminación de percloroetileno en suelo y aguas subterráneas en un terreno industrial

La contaminación de suelos y aguas subterráneas es uno de los problemas ambientales más extendidos en gran parte de los terrenos industriales de Cataluña. En este proyecto se ha analizado el proceso de gestión de la contaminación: caracterización, remediación y seguimiento de la descontaminación en suelos y aguas subterráneas por un caso de afección por organoclorados (percloroetileno) y otros contaminantes (hidrocarburos, selenio y cromo) en un emplazamiento industrial situado en una zona agroforestal (superficie de 81.462 m2). A partir de la implantación en la empresa del sistema de gestión ISO 14.001 en 1.996, se abrieron diferentes proyectos de gestión para los posibles contaminantes. Por las mismas fechas, también se detectó una afección por selenio en aguas subterráneas, ajena a la empresa de estudio. Por el momento, el único contaminante que ha requerido de un proceso de descontaminación ha sido el percloroetileno. En suelos se emplea el método “soil vapor extraction” y en aguas subterráneas el método “airstripping”. Finalmente, se ha llevado a cabo una comparación de los costes reales derivados del proceso de descontaminación del percloroetileno en contra de los costes que se hubiesen derivado la implantación de medidas de prevención de la contaminación. El resultado de la valoración indica que la descontaminación de éste compuesto requiere de una inversión económica importante, unas 10 veces más elevada que los costes derivados de las medidas de prevención.

On Lundh's percolation diffusion

A collection of spherical obstacles in the unit ball in Euclidean space is said to be avoidable for Brownian motion if there is a positive probability that Brownian motion diffusing from some point in the ball will avoid all the obstacles and reach the boundary of the ball. The centres of the spherical obstacles are generated according to a Poisson point process while the radius of an obstacle is a deterministic function. If avoidable con gurations are generated with positive probability Lundh calls this percolation di usion. An integral condition for percolation di ffusion is derived in terms of the intensity of the point process and the function that determines the radii of the obstacles.

Determinació de la regió del genoma o gens implicats en la síntesi del polièster extracel•lular present en la variant llisa de Mycobacterium vaccae mitjançant transformació

Estudi realitzat a partir d’una estada a la Universidad de Zaragoza, Espanya, entre novembre del 2007 i abril del 2008. Mycobacterium vaccae és un micobacteri ambiental de creixement ràpid molt estudiat pel seu interès com a possible ús immunoterapéutic en el tractament de la tuberculosis i altres malalties. M.vaccae a l’igual que altres micobacteris presenta dues morfologies colonials: llisa i rugosa. M.vaccae ATCC15483T té originàriament una morfologia llisa. Quant aquest es cultiva en medi sòlid a 30ºC apareixen espontàniament variants rugoses estables que no reverteixen a llises. El motiu pel qual aquest procés té lloc no es coneix, encara que s’ha descrit en Mycobacterium smegmatis i en Mycobacterium avium que els lípids de la paret cel•lular es troben involucrats en aquest canvi de morfologia colonial. L’anàlisi dels contingut en lípids i glicolípids de la paret cel•lular de les dos variants morfològiques de M.vaccae, ens ha indicat que les soques llises presenten un compost extracel•lular que no es troba en les rugoses i que mitjançant l’anàlisi estructural d’aquest compost ha sigut identificat com un polièster extracel•lular de cadena llarga. El present estudi s’ha centrat en determinar els gens implicats en la síntesis d’aquest compost. Per a realitzar aquest anàlisi genètic s’ha construit una llibreria de mutants per transposició de la soca llisa de M. vaccae mitjançant un plàsmid ts/sac i un transposó. S’han obtingut colònies de morfologia rugosa on el plàsmid s’ha insertat en la zona del genoma que codifica per aquest compost extracel•lular. Aquests nous mutants s’han analitzat mitjançant tècniques moleculars (PCR, Southern y seqüenciació). A mès, s’ha construit una llibreria genòmica amb DNA de la soca llisa en plàsmids replicatius de micobacteris derivats de pAL5000 i s’ha transformat la soca rugosa seleccionant per a un fenotip llis estudiant els gens que complementen.

Productivity in southern European small firms: When and how work organization complements process innovation

The aim of this paper is to analyse the effects of human capital, advanced manufacturing technologies (AMT), and new work organizational practices on firm productivity, while taking into account the synergies existing between them. This study expands current knowledge in this area in two ways. First, in contrast with previous works, we focus on AMT and not ICT (information and communication technologies). Second, we use a unique employer-employee data set for small firms in a particular area of southern Europe (Catalonia, Spain). Using a small firm data set, allows us to analyse the particular case of small and medium enterprises, since we cannot assume they have the same characteristics as large firms. The results provide evidence in favor of the complementarity hypothesis between human capital, advanced manufacturing technologies, and new work organization practices, although we show that the complementarity effects depend on what type of work organization practices are used by a firm. For small and medium Catalan firms, the only set of work organization practices that improve the benefits of human capital and technology investment are those practices which are more quality oriented, such as quality circles, problem-solving groups or total quality management.

Construcció d'una aplicació web utilitzant el mètode Rational Unified Process

Construcció d'una aplicació web a partir de les especificacions d'un client imaginari. Estudi i utilització del mètode Rational Unified Process, el més habitual actualment en la construcció de software. Disseny d'una base de dades i implementació del model lògic mitjançant un SGBD punter al mercat com Oracle.

PERSONAL(ONTO) : Personalizing the Learning Process in Virtual Environments by means of Adaptive Formative Itineraries based on Reusable Learning Objects and Ontologies TIN2006-15107-C02

Personalization in e-learning allows the adaptation of contents, learning strategiesand educational resources to the competencies, previous knowledge or preferences of the student. This project takes a multidisciplinary perspective for devising standards-based personalization capabilities into virtual e-learning environments, focusing on the conceptof adaptive learning itinerary, using reusable learning objects as the basis of the system and using ontologies and semantic web technologies.

Discrete and continuous compositions

This paper examines a dataset which is modeled well by thePoisson-Log Normal process and by this process mixed with LogNormal data, which are both turned into compositions. Thisgenerates compositional data that has zeros without any need forconditional models or assuming that there is missing or censoreddata that needs adjustment. It also enables us to model dependenceon covariates and within the composition

Abstracting qualitative information for process supervision

Supervisory systems evolution makes the obtaining of significant information from processes more important in the way that the supervision systems' particular tasks are simplified. So, having signal treatment tools capable of obtaining elaborate information from the process data is important. In this paper, a tool that obtains qualitative data about the trends and oscillation of signals is presented. An application of this tool is presented as well. In this case, the tool, implemented in a computer-aided control systems design (CACSD) environment, is used in order to give to an expert system for fault detection in a laboratory plant

An energy preserving discontinouous Galerkin method for Vlasov-Poisson system

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