n=1/4 domain-growth universality class: Crossover to the n=1/2 class

The kinetic domain-growth exponent is studied by Monte Carlo simulation as a function of temperature for a nonconserved order-parameter model. In the limit of zero temperature, the model belongs to the n=(1/4 slow-growth unversality class. This is indicative of a temporal pinning in the domain-boundary network of mixed-, zero-, and finite-curvature boundaries. At finite temperature the growth kinetics is found to cross over to the Allen-Cahn exponent n=(1/2. We obtain that the pinning time of the zero-curvature boundary decreases rapidly with increasing temperature.

The effects of monetary policy on stock market bubbles: Some evidence

We estimate the response of stock prices to exogenous monetary policy shocks usinga vector-autoregressive model with time-varying parameters. Our evidence points toprotracted episodes in which, after a a short-run decline, stock prices increase persistently in response to an exogenous tightening of monetary policy. That responseis clearly at odds with the "conventional" view on the effects of monetary policy onbubbles, as well as with the predictions of bubbleless models. We also argue that it isunlikely that such evidence be accounted for by an endogenous response of the equitypremium to the monetary policy shocks.

Search and bargaining in large markets with homogeneous traders

We study pair-wise decentralized trade in dynamic markets with homogeneous, non-atomic, buyers and sellers that wish to exchange one unit. Pairs of traders are randomly matched and bargaining a price under rules that offer the freedom to quit the match at any time. Market equilbria, prices and trades over time, are characterized. The asymptotic behavior of prices and trades as frictions (search costs and impatience) vanish, and the conditions for (non) convergence to walrasian prices are explored. As a side product of independent interest, we present a self-contained theory of non-cooperative bargaining with two-sided, time-varying, outside options.

On the choice of an exchange rate regime: target zones revisited

From the classical gold standard up to the current ERM2 arrangement of the European Union, target zones have been a widely used exchange regime in contemporary history. This paper presents a benchmark model that rationalizes the choice of target zones over the rest of regimes: the fixed rate, the free float and the managed float. It is shown that the monetary authority may gain efficiency by reducing volatility of both the exchange rate and the interest rate at the same time. Furthermore, the model is consistent with some known stylized facts in the empirical literature that previous models were not able to produce, namely, the positive relation between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential, the degree of non-linearity of the function linking the exchage rate to fundamentals and the shape of the exchange rate stochastic distribution.

Optimal feedback control rules sensitive to controlled endogenous risk-aversion

The objective of this paper is to correct and improve the results obtained by Van der Ploeg (1984a, 1984b) and utilized in the theoretical literature related to feedback stochastic optimal control sensitive to constant exogenous risk-aversion (see, Jacobson, 1973, Karp, 1987 and Whittle, 1981, 1989, 1990, among others) or to the classic context of risk-neutral decision-makers (see, Chow, 1973, 1976a, 1976b, 1977, 1978, 1981, 1993). More realistic and attractive, this new approach is placed in the context of a time-varying endogenous risk-aversion which is under the control of the decision-maker. It has strong qualitative implications on the agent's optimal policy during the entire planning horizon.

State-dependent threshold STAR models

In this paper we consider extensions of smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to situations where the threshold is a time-varying function of variables that affect the separation of regimes of the time series under consideration. Our specification is motivated by the observation that unusually high/low values for an economic variable may sometimes be best thought of in relative terms. State-dependent logistic STAR and contemporaneous-threshold STAR models are introduced and discussed. These models are also used to investigate the dynamics of U.S. short-term interest rates, where the threshold is allowed to be a function of past output growth and inflation.

Monetary policy rules and financial stress: does financial instability matter for monetary

We examine whether and how main central banks responded to episodes of financial stress over the last three decades. We employ a new methodology for monetary policy rules estimation, which allows for time-varying response coefficients as well as corrects for endogeneity. This flexible framework applied to the U.S., U.K., Australia, Canada and Sweden together with a new financial stress dataset developed by the International Monetary Fund allows not only testing whether the central banks responded to financial stress but also detects the periods and type of stress that were the most worrying for monetary authorities and to quantify the intensity of policy response. Our findings suggest that central banks often change policy

An LMI approach to H∞ synchronization of second-order neutral master-slave systems

The H∞ synchronization problem of the master and slave structure of a second-order neutral master-slave systems with time-varying delays is presented in this paper. Delay-dependent sufficient conditions for the design of a delayed output-feedback control are given by Lyapunov-Krasovskii method in terms of a linear matrix inequality (LMI). A controller, which guarantees H∞ synchronization of the master and slave structure using some free weighting matrices, is then developed. A numerical example has been given to show the effectiveness of the method

What can spike train distances tell us about the neural code?

Time scale parametric spike train distances like the Victor and the van Rossum distancesare often applied to study the neural code based on neural stimuli discrimination.Different neural coding hypotheses, such as rate or coincidence coding,can be assessed by combining a time scale parametric spike train distance with aclassifier in order to obtain the optimal discrimination performance. The time scalefor which the responses to different stimuli are distinguished best is assumed to bethe discriminative precision of the neural code. The relevance of temporal codingis evaluated by comparing the optimal discrimination performance with the oneachieved when assuming a rate code.We here characterize the measures quantifying the discrimination performance,the discriminative precision, and the relevance of temporal coding. Furthermore,we evaluate the information these quantities provide about the neural code. Weshow that the discriminative precision is too unspecific to be interpreted in termsof the time scales relevant for encoding. Accordingly, the time scale parametricnature of the distances is mainly an advantage because it allows maximizing thediscrimination performance across a whole set of measures with different sensitivitiesdetermined by the time scale parameter, but not due to the possibility toexamine the temporal properties of the neural code.

Multiple target tracking using random sets

This paper presents several algorithms for joint estimation of the target number and state in a time-varying scenario. Building on the results presented in [1], which considers estimation of the target number only, we assume that not only the target number, but also their state evolution must be estimated. In this context, we extend to this new scenario the Rao-Blackwellization procedure of [1] to compute Bayes recursions, thus defining reduced-complexity solutions for the multi-target set estimator. A performance assessmentis finally given both in terms of Circular Position Error Probability - aimed at evaluating the accuracy of the estimated track - and in terms of Cardinality Error Probability, aimed at evaluating the reliability of the target number estimates.

Structural changes in the US economy: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?

This paper investigates the relationship between time variations in output and inflation dynamics and monetary policy in the US. There are changes in the structural coefficients and in the variance of the structural shocks. The policy rules in the 1970s and 1990s are similar as is the transmission of policy disturbances. Inflation persistence is only partly a monetary phenomena. Variations in the systematic component of policy have limited effects on the dynamics of output and inflation. Results are robust to alterations in the auxiliary assumptions.

Has the Euro-Mediterranean partnership affected Mediterranean business cycles?

We date turning points of the reference cycle for 19 Mediterranean countries andanalyze their structure and interdependences. Fluctuations are volatile and not highlycorrelated across countries; recessions are deep but asynchronous making average outputlosses in the area limited. Heterogeneities across countries and regions are substantial.Mediterranean cycles are time varying but their evolution is not linked withthe Euro-Mediterranean partnership process. The concordance of cyclical fluctuationsis poorly related to trade and financial linkages and to their evolution over time.

Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?

This paper investigates the contribution of monetary policy to the changes in outputgrowth and inflation dynamics in the US. We identify a policy shock and a policy rule ina time-varying coefficients VAR using robust sign restrictions. The transmission of policyshocks has been relatively stable. The variance of the policy shock has decreased over time,but policy shocks account for a small fraction of the level and of the variations in inflationand output growth volatility and persistence. We find little evidence of a significant increasein the long run response of the interest rate to inflation. A more aggressive inflation policyin the 1970s would have produced large output growth costs.

A general decomposition formula for derivative prices in stochastic volatility models

We see that the price of an european call option in a stochastic volatilityframework can be decomposed in the sum of four terms, which identifythe main features of the market that affect to option prices: the expectedfuture volatility, the correlation between the volatility and the noisedriving the stock prices, the market price of volatility risk and thedifference of the expected future volatility at different times. We alsostudy some applications of this decomposition.

A generalization of Hull and White formula and applications to option pricing approximation

By means of Malliavin Calculus we see that the classical Hull and White formulafor option pricing can be extended to the case where the noise driving thevolatility process is correlated with the noise driving the stock prices. Thisextension will allow us to construct option pricing approximation formulas.Numerical examples are presented.