Analisi espacial del canvi climàtic al continent europeu. Incerteses i exposicions principals

El canvi climàtic del segle XXI és una realitat, hi ha moltes evidències científiques que indiquen que l’escalfament del sistema climàtic és inequívoc. Malgrat això, també hi ha moltes incerteses respecte els impactes que pot comportar aquest canvi climàtic global. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és estudiar la possible evolució futura de tres variables climàtiques, que són el rang de la temperatura diürna a prop de la superfície (DTR), la temperatura mitjana a prop de la superfície (MT) i la precipitació mensual (PL_mes) i valorar l’exposició que poden experimentar diferents cobertes del sòl i diferents regions biogeogràfiques del continent europeu davant d’aquests possibles patrons de canvi. Per això s’han utilitzat Models Climàtics Globals que fan projeccions de variables climàtiques que permeten preveure el possible clima futur. Mitjançant l’aplicatiu informàtic Tetyn s’han extret els paràmetres climàtics dels conjunts de dades del Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, del futur (TYN SC) i del passat (CRU TS). Les variables obtingudes s’han processat amb eines de sistemes d’informació geogràfica (SIG) per obtenir els patrons de canvi de les variables a cada coberta del sòl. Els resultats obtinguts mostren que hi ha una gran variabilitat, que augmenta amb el temps, entre els diferents models climàtics i escenaris considerats, que posa de manifest la incertesa associada a la modelització climàtica, a la generació d’escenaris d’emissions i a la naturalesa dinàmica i no determinista del sistema climàtic. Però en general, mostren que les glaceres seran una de les cobertes més exposades al canvi climàtic, i la mediterrània, una de les regions més vulnerables

Tropical cyclones as a critical phenomenon

It has been proposed that the number of tropical cyclones as a function of the energy they release is a decreasing power-law function, up to a characteristic energy cutoff determined by the spatial size of the ocean basin in which the storm occurs. This means that no characteristic scale exists for the energy of tropical cyclones, except for the finite-size effects induced by the boundaries of the basins. This has important implications for the physics of tropical cyclones. We discuss up to what point tropical cyclones are related to critical phenomena (in the same way as earthquakes, rainfall, etc.), providing a consistent picture of the energy balance in the system. Moreover, this perspective allows one to visualize more clearly the effects of global warming on tropical-cyclone occurrence.

Diversity of the bacterial community in the surface soil of a pear orchard based on 16S rRNA gene analysis

A cultivation-independent approach based on polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-amplified partial small subunit rRNA genes was used to characterize bacterial populations in the surface soil of a commercial pear orchard consisting of different pear cultivars during two consecutive growing seasons. Pyrus communis L. cvs Blanquilla, Conference, and Williams are among the most widely cultivated cultivars in Europe and account for the majority of pear production in Northeastern Spain. To assess the heterogeneity of the community structure in response to environmental variables and tree phenology, bacterial populations were examined using PCR-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) followed by cluster analysis of the 16S ribosomal DNA profiles by means of the unweighted pair group method with arithmetic means. Similarity analysis of the band patterns failed to identify characteristic fingerprints associated with the pear cultivars. Both environmentally and biologically based principal-component analyses showed that the microbial communities changed significantly throughout the year depending on temperature and, to a lesser extent, on tree phenology and rainfall. Prominent DGGE bands were excised and sequenced to gain insight into the identities of the predominant bacterial populations. Most DGGE band sequences were related to bacterial phyla, such as Bacteroidetes, Cyanobacteria, Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, Nitrospirae, and Gemmatimonadetes, previously associated with typical agronomic crop environments

Growth, Democracy, and Civil War

Does economic growth affect the likelihood of civil war? Answering this question requires dealing with reverse causation. Our approach exploits that international commodity prices have a significant effect on the income growth of Sub-Saharan African countries. We show that lower income growth makes civil war more likely in non-democracies. This effect is significantly weaker in democracies; as a result, we find no link between growth and civil war in these countries. Our reducedform results also indicate that lower international commodity price growth has no effect on civil war in democracies, but raises the likelihood of civil war incidence and onset in nondemocracies.

Transitory Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict

I examine whether civil conflict is triggered by transitory negative economic shocks. My approach follows Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) in using rainfall as an exogenous source of economic shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries. The main difference is that my empirical specifications take into account that rainfall shocks are transitory. Failure to do so may, for example, lead to the conclusion that civil conflict is more likely to break out following negative rainfall shocks when conflict is most probable following years with exceptionally high rainfall levels.

Estimating the effect of transitory economic shocks on civil conflict

This note tries to clarify some remaining issues in the debate on the effect of income shocks oncivil conflict. Section 1 discusses the discrepant findings on the effect of rainfall shocks oncivil conflict in Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011) and Ciccone (2011). Section 2 develops aninstrumental variables approach to estimate the effect of transitory (rainfall-driven) incomeshocks on civil conflict and contrasts the conclusions with those of Miguel, Satyanath, andSergenti (2004) and Miguel and Satyanath (2010, 2011). Throughout, the note uses the data ofMiguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti to focus on the methodological issues at the core of the debate(for results using the latest data see Ciccone, 2011).

Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

According to the economic approach to politicaltransitions, transitory negative economic shocks can open a windowof opportunity for democratic improvement. Testing the theoryrequires a source of transitory shocks to the aggregate economy. Weuse rainfall shocks in Sub-Saharan African countries and find thatnegative rainfall shocks are followed by significant improvement indemocratic institutions. Instrumental variables estimates indicate thatfollowing a transitory negative income shock of 1 percent,democracy scores improve by 0.9 percentage points and theprobability of a democratic transition increases by 1.3 percentagepoints.

Economic shocks and civil conflict: A comment

Miguel, Satyanath, and Sergenti (2004) argue that lowerrainfall levels and negative rainfall shocks increase conflictrisk in Sub-Saharan Africa. This conclusion rests on theirfinding of a negative correlation between conflict in t andrainfall growth between t-1 and t-2. I argue that this findingis driven by a positive correlation between conflict in t andrainfall levels in t-2. If lower rainfall levels or negativerainfall shocks increased conflict, one might have expectedMSS s finding to reflect a negative correlation betweenconflict in t and rainfall levels in t-1. In the latest data,conflict is unrelated to rainfall.

Aportació al coneixement de la dinàmica fluvial en la conca del riu Onyar (Girona)

Two decay rates are distinguished in the discharge hydrograph of the Onyar River, using Maillet's formula. In this way, we can know which Kina of influence is made by geomorphology and rainfall distribution on fluvial processes

Lipid reserves of red mullet (Mullus barbatus) during pre-spawning in the northwestern Mediterranean

Lipid reserves are a particularly important attribute of fishes because they have a large influence on growth, reproduction and survival. This study analyses the lipid content of red mullet (Mullus barbatus) pre-spawners in three different areas of the northwestern Mediterranean in relation to trawling activities and river runoff. The muscle lipid was considered as an indicator of the somatic condition of individuals whilst the gonad lipid was used as a proxy of the energy invested in reproduction. The results show that fish with the highest muscle lipid levels inhabited the area where fishing impact was lowest. Since the abundance and biomass of polychaetes, which represent the main food source for red mullet, were found to be lower in trawled zones than in unfished ones, we suggest that differences in the muscle lipid levels between areas might be attributed to variation in prey abundance in relation to fishing impact. However, no impact of river runoff on lipid reserves of red mullet was observed. The results also show that muscle and gonad lipid reserves are not related to each other during pre-spawning

Características geológicas y geotécnicas de los lodos de flotación de la Sierra Minera de Cartagena-La Unión (SE España)

We present the results of a geological and geotechnical characterization of the metallurgic waste from the Sierra Minera de Cartagena-La Union. We have studied eight tailings dams from which we collected and analysed 42 samples of metallurgic waste. We measured grainsize distribution, the specific gravity of solid particles, plasticity index, permeability, both in situ and in the laboratory, direct shear characteristicsand moisture content. According to size distribution the tailings can be classified as sandy silt. Their plasticity index ranges from medium to nil. The internal friction angle varies between 28 and 42 degrees. Cohesion is between 0 and 2.2 t/m2. The specific gravity of the solid particles ranges widely from 1.8 to 4 g/cm3. The saturated hydraulic conductivity values vary between 1.3x 10-5 and 3.2x 10-9 m/s.The water content measured in situ shows that the degree of saturation remains relatively high despite low rainfall and high evaporation rates. Several tailings dams have failed. The leading causes of tailings-dam failure are: 1) slope instability; 2) overflow; 3) erosion; and 4) subsidence or collapse. The main factor leading to dam failure is that the tailings stored in the ponds are highly saturated

Determinación de sistemas de flujo regionales y locales en las depresiones tectónicas del Baix Empordà y La Selva (NE de España) en base a datos hidroquímicos e isotópicos

The Baix Empordà-Selva-Gavarres aquifer system is related to the fault set that created the tectonic basins of Empordà and Selva areas (NE Spain) during the Neogene. In this work, we describe groundwater hydrogeological, hydrochemical and isotopical (3H, δD, δ18O, and the 87Sr/86Sr ratio) characteristics of this system in order to illustrate the relevance of fault zones in groundwater flow-paths and the recharge. In that way, we identify two flow systems, with distinct hydrochemistry and isotopes. A local flow system originates at the Gavarres Range, and it flows towards the basins of the Baix Empordà and Selva, with an approximate residence time of 20 years. Additionally, a regional flow system has only been identified in the Selva basin. This one is related to the main fault zones, as preferential flow paths. Its recharge is located in mountain ranges with higher altitudes, namely the Transversal and Guilleries Ranges, with residence times larger than 50 years. Isotopical data has also shown mixing processes between both flow systems and rainfall recharge while multivariate statistical analysis of principal components has shown the main processes that control hydrochemistry of each flow systems

Predicting the potential for lightning activity in mediterranean storms based on the WRF model dynamic and microphysical fields

A new parameter is introduced: the lightning potential index (LPI), which is a measure of the potential for charge generation and separation that leads to lightning flashes in convective thunderstorms. The LPI is calculated within the charge separation region of clouds between 0 C and 20 C, where the noninductive mechanism involving collisions of ice and graupel particles in the presence of supercooled water is most effective. As shown in several case studies using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with explicit microphysics, the LPI is highly correlated with observed lightning. It is suggested that the LPI may be a useful parameter for predicting lightning as well as a tool for improving weather forecasting of convective storms and heavy rainfall.

A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods

In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.

Radar analysis of the life cycle of mesoscale convective systems during the 10 June 2000 event

The 10 June 2000 event was the largest flash flood event that occurred in the Northeast of Spain in the late 20th century, both as regards its meteorological features and its considerable social impact. This paper focuses on analysis of the structures that produced the heavy rainfalls, especially from the point of view of meteorological radar. Due to the fact that this case is a good example of a Mediterranean flash flood event, a final objective of this paper is to undertake a description of the evolution of the rainfall structure that would be sufficiently clear to be understood at an interdisciplinary forum. Then, it could be useful not only to improve conceptual meteorological models, but also for application in downscaling models. The main precipitation structure was a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) that crossed the region and that developed as a consequence of the merging of two previous squall lines. The paper analyses the main meteorological features that led to the development and triggering of the heavy rainfalls, with special emphasis on the features of this MCS, its life cycle and its dynamic features. To this end, 2-D and 3-D algorithms were applied to the imagery recorded over the complete life cycle of the structures, which lasted approximately 18 h. Mesoscale and synoptic information were also considered. Results show that it was an NS-MCS, quasi-stationary during its stage of maturity as a consequence of the formation of a convective train, the different displacement directions of the 2-D structures and the 3-D structures, including the propagation of new cells, and the slow movement of the convergence line associated with the Mediterranean mesoscale low.