Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristicsin a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When thegoal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style andnot to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors islarger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author.For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for exampleMosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) orLebart, Salem and Berry (1998).Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be“the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writterslike Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translatedseveral times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal(1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465,but it was not printed until 1490.There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition,where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while atthe end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death ofMartorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990),Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer(1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990).Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and thereforediscriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample textsencompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that mightindicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba andGinebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383.Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the mostfrequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the featuresselected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore tothree sequences of multinomial observations.Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the followingsections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the methodin section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma modelsonto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, theone in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of thecorrespondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the averageword length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify thefeatures that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavilyon the use of generalized linear models

Mathematical modeling and analysis of the interaction of populations of bacteria and bacteriophages within chicken intestine

Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document de l'arxiu adjunt

Epidemic models with an infected-infectious period

The introduction of an infective-infectious period on the geographic spread of epidemics is considered in two different models. The classical evolution equations arising in the literature are generalized and the existence of epidemic wave fronts is revised. The asymptotic speed is obtained and improves previous results for the Black Death plague

Avoiding transcription factor competition at promoter level increases the chances of obtaining oscillations

Background: The ultimate goal of synthetic biology is the conception and construction of genetic circuits that are reliable with respect to their designed function (e.g. oscillators, switches). This task remains still to be attained due to the inherent synergy of the biological building blocks and to an insufficient feedback between experiments and mathematical models. Nevertheless, the progress in these directions has been substantial. Results: It has been emphasized in the literature that the architecture of a genetic oscillator must include positive (activating) and negative (inhibiting) genetic interactions in order to yield robust oscillations. Our results point out that the oscillatory capacity is not only affected by the interaction polarity but by how it is implemented at promoter level. For a chosen oscillator architecture, we show by means of numerical simulations that the existence or lack of competition between activator and inhibitor at promoter level affects the probability of producing oscillations and also leaves characteristic fingerprints on the associated period/amplitude features. Conclusions: In comparison with non-competitive binding at promoters, competition drastically reduces the region of the parameters space characterized by oscillatory solutions. Moreover, while competition leads to pulse-like oscillations with long-tail distribution in period and amplitude for various parameters or noisy conditions, the non-competitive scenario shows a characteristic frequency and confined amplitude values. Our study also situates the competition mechanism in the context of existing genetic oscillators, with emphasis on the Atkinson oscillator.

A bi-dimensional genome scan for prolificacy traits in pigs shows the existence of multiple epistatic QTL

Background: Prolificacy is the most important trait influencing the reproductive efficiency of pig production systems. The low heritability and sex-limited expression of prolificacy have hindered to some extent the improvement of this trait through artificial selection. Moreover, the relative contributions of additive, dominant and epistatic QTL to the genetic variance of pig prolificacy remain to be defined. In this work, we have undertaken this issue by performing one-dimensional and bi-dimensional genome scans for number of piglets born alive (NBA) and total number of piglets born (TNB) in a three generation Iberian by Meishan F2 intercross. Results: The one-dimensional genome scan for NBA and TNB revealed the existence of two genome-wide highly significant QTL located on SSC13 (P < 0.001) and SSC17 (P < 0.01) with effects on both traits. This relative paucity of significant results contrasted very strongly with the wide array of highly significant epistatic QTL that emerged in the bi-dimensional genome-wide scan analysis. As much as 18 epistatic QTL were found for NBA (four at P < 0.01 and five at P < 0.05) and TNB (three at P < 0.01 and six at P < 0.05), respectively. These epistatic QTL were distributed in multiple genomic regions, which covered 13 of the 18 pig autosomes, and they had small individual effects that ranged between 3 to 4% of the phenotypic variance. Different patterns of interactions (a × a, a × d, d × a and d × d) were found amongst the epistatic QTL pairs identified in the current work.Conclusions: The complex inheritance of prolificacy traits in pigs has been evidenced by identifying multiple additive (SSC13 and SSC17), dominant and epistatic QTL in an Iberian × Meishan F2 intercross. Our results demonstrate that a significant fraction of the phenotypic variance of swine prolificacy traits can be attributed to first-order gene-by-gene interactions emphasizing that the phenotypic effects of alleles might be strongly modulated by the genetic background where they segregate.

Aitchison Geometry for Probability and Likelihood as a new approach to mathematical statistics

The Aitchison vector space structure for the simplex is generalized to a Hilbert space structure A2(P) for distributions and likelihoods on arbitrary spaces. Centralnotations of statistics, such as Information or Likelihood, can be identified in the algebraical structure of A2(P) and their corresponding notions in compositional data analysis, such as Aitchison distance or centered log ratio transform.In this way very elaborated aspects of mathematical statistics can be understoodeasily in the light of a simple vector space structure and of compositional data analysis. E.g. combination of statistical information such as Bayesian updating,combination of likelihood and robust M-estimation functions are simple additions/perturbations in A2(Pprior). Weighting observations corresponds to a weightedaddition of the corresponding evidence.Likelihood based statistics for general exponential families turns out to have aparticularly easy interpretation in terms of A2(P). Regular exponential families formfinite dimensional linear subspaces of A2(P) and they correspond to finite dimensionalsubspaces formed by their posterior in the dual information space A2(Pprior).The Aitchison norm can identified with mean Fisher information. The closing constant itself is identified with a generalization of the cummulant function and shown to be Kullback Leiblers directed information. Fisher information is the local geometry of the manifold induced by the A2(P) derivative of the Kullback Leibler information and the space A2(P) can therefore be seen as the tangential geometry of statistical inference at the distribution P.The discussion of A2(P) valued random variables, such as estimation functionsor likelihoods, give a further interpretation of Fisher information as the expected squared norm of evidence and a scale free understanding of unbiased reasoning

A mathematical excursion: From the three-door problem to a Cantor-type perfect set

We start with a generalization of the well-known three-door problem:the n-door problem. The solution of this new problem leads us toa beautiful representation system for real numbers in (0,1] as alternated series, known in the literature as Pierce expansions. A closer look to Pierce expansions will take us to some metrical properties of sets defined through the Pierce expansions of its elements. Finally, these metrical properties will enable us to present 'strange' sets, similar to the classical Cantor set.

The daily market for funds in Europe: Mathematical appendix

This paper includes the derivations of the main expressions in the paper ``The Daily Market for Funds in Europe: Has Something Changed With the EMU?'' by G. Pérez Quirós and H. Rodríguez Mendizábal.

Análisis del comportamiento de los resultados en 'full' y 'direct costing'

In this paper we perform a mathematical analyse of profits and losses indirect and full costing. They are compared in different situations, mainlythe utilisation of productive capacity and the existence of beginninginventories. Direct costing was conceived as a system of cost accountingwhich would show profits as a function of sales. In full costing profitsdepend on available combinations of sales, production, costs of beginninginventories, etc., and information displayed in financial statements displayappears incongruent. Differences in profits with full and direct costingincrease when full costing allocates fixed costs according to normalproduction, in some cases differences, and financial statements would showmore incongruent performance. It is concluded about the importance thatprofit and loss statement expresses profits in both costing systems.

Existence of sparsely supported correlated equilibria

We show that every finite N-player normal form game possesses a correlated equilibrium with a precise lower bound on the number of outcomes to which it assigns zero probability. In particular, the largest games with a unique fully supported correlated equilibrium are two-player games; moreover, the lower bound grows exponentially in the number of players N.

Constraints and non-existence of rational expectations equilibria

In this article we show that in the presence of trading constraints, such as short sale constraints, the standard definition of a Rational Expectations Equilibrium allows for equilibrium prices that reveal information unknown to any active trader in the market. We propose a new definition of the Rational Expectations Equilibrium that incorporates a stronger measurability condition than measurability with respect to the join of the information sets of the agents and give an example of non-existence of equilibrium. The example is robust to perturbations on the data of the economy and the introduction of new assets.

An Efficient Nominal Unification Algorithm

Nominal Unification is an extension of first-order unification where terms can contain binders and unification is performed modulo α equivalence. Here we prove that the existence of nominal unifiers can be decided in quadratic time. First, we linearly-reduce nominal unification problems to a sequence of freshness and equalities between atoms, modulo a permutation, using ideas as Paterson and Wegman for first-order unification. Second, we prove that solvability of these reduced problems may be checked in quadràtic time. Finally, we point out how using ideas of Brown and Tarjan for unbalanced merging, we could solve these reduced problems more efficiently

Evaluating solutions to process, view and listen mathematical formula within an accessible context

Proves de conversió de fòrmules matemàtiques des d'editors de text ofimàtics i des de Làtex. Visionat en HTML i MathML. El millor resultat s'aconsegueix amb MSWord+MathType i IE+MathPlayer.

Interiority of the optimal population growth rate with endogenous fertility

This paper analyzes the issue of the interiority of the optimal population growth rate in a two-period overlapping generations model with endogenous fertility. Using Cobb-Douglas utility and production functions, we show that the introduction of a cost of raising children allows for the possibility of the existence of an interior global maximum in the planner¿s problem, contrary to the exogenous fertility case

SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC: A new approach to mathematical 3D forward simulation modelling for terrigenous and carbonate marine sedimentation

Most sedimentary modelling programs developed in recent years focus on either terrigenous or carbonate marine sedimentation. Nevertheless, only a few programs have attempted to consider mixed terrigenous-carbonate sedimentation, and most of these are two-dimensional, which is a major restriction since geological processes take place in 3D. This paper presents the basic concepts of a new 3D mathematical forward simulation model for clastic sediments, which was developed from SIMSAFADIM, a previous 3D carbonate sedimentation model. The new extended model, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC, simulates processes of autochthonous marine carbonate production and accumulation, together with clastic transport and sedimentation in three dimensions of both carbonate and terrigenous sediments. Other models and modelling strategies may also provide realistic and efficient tools for prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution of sedimentary deposits. However, SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC becomes an innovative model that attempts to simulate different sediment types using a process-based approach, therefore being a useful tool for 3D prediction of stratigraphic architecture and facies distribution in sedimentary basins. This model is applied to the neogene Vallès-Penedès half-graben (western Mediterranean, NE Spain) to show the capacity of the program when applied to a realistic geologic situation involving interactions between terrigenous clastics and carbonate sediments.